André Greipel made the most of a rare opportunity for the fast riders in today’s stage but the pure sprinters will now have to take a back seat for the rest of the first week. Instead, the puncheurs prepare themselves for one of their biggest goals of the race as they hope to get the chance to shine in an uphill sprint at the end of a mammoth 264km run through the rolling Italian terrain.

 

The course

The pure sprinters hopefully enjoyed stage 6 as it is back into the lumpy terrain for the tricky stage 7 which again offers a chance for the classics riders to shine in a tricky finale. At the same time, those riders will be familiar with the distance. The Giro d’Italia usually includes a very long stage of classics distance and the 2015 edition is no exception as this stage will cover a massive 264km.

 

The stage brings the riders from Grossetto past the capital of Rome and stays close to the coast as the riders continue the traditional southerly journey along the Tyrrhenian coast that typically characterizes the first part of the race. With its length of 264km, it is the longest stage of the 2015 Giro. Its profile features no really challenging points, but the final part of the route is quite wavy. The first 70km run along the Aurelia highway, the route then enters the Maremma region past Montalto di Castro. Rolling along gentle undulations, the route hits the towns of Tuscania and Vetralla, and skirts around the urban agglomeration of Rome. The KOM climb is set in Monterotondo, on top of a short ramp (category 4, 2.5km, 5.1%, max. 9%). After rolling past Tivoli (through the hamlet of Ponte Lucano), the peloton will be confronted with the last 60km, wavier and more complicated (in terms of both course and profile) that lead to the finish in Fiuggi along Via Prenestina.

 

After the town of Piglio, some 15 km from the finish where the riders have just finished a short, uncategorized climb, a U-turn leads to a short descent (where the road is slightly narrower at points); from here, the stage course takes the new Via Anticolana. The last 10km run gently uphill, first with a 4.4% average gradient. After crossing the Monte Porciano tunnel (672 m – straight and slightly uphill), 5km from the finish, the route reaches Via Prenestina through large, well-paved roads, still climbing slightly at a 1-2% gradient. Upon entering urban Fiuggi, the road turns left, and climbs at a gradient of approx. 2% up to the last kilometre, where the route becomes slightly steeper. The home straight is 350-m long, on 7-m wide asphalt road, with a gentle 3-4% gradient. The finale is mainly non-technical as there will only be some sweeping bends inside the final 3km before the riders turn left in a roundabout with 1300m to go. There are two sweeping bends in quick succession, leading onto the short finishing straight.

 

Fiuggi has hosted a stage finish 8 times in the past, most recently in 2011 when Francisco Ventoso beat Alessandro Petacchi in a memorable uphill sprint that left both riders completely exhausted.

 

 

 

The weather

The weather has been very pleasant in the first part of the Giro – at least for the riders who like to ride in the heat – but tomorrow there is a small chance that they will get their fast taste of racing. After a sunny start, it will become pretty cloudy and showers are forecasted for the evening. However, it is most likely that it will be dry during the race. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction. This means that there will first be a headwind and then a cross-headwind for most of the stage. In the finale, there will be a crosswind fir most of the final 10km until the riders turn into a tailwind with 2km to go. After the final roundabout with 1.5km to go, there will be a cross-tailwind for the final part of the stage.

 

The favourites

The sprint teams combined their efforts perfectly to control today’s stage and so made sure that the fast riders got a rare chance to flex their muscles. André Greipel proved his status as the fastest rider in the race and Lotto Soudal showed that they can make a well-drilled lead-out despite the fact that they miss most of their famous train in this race.

 

This spells the end for the pure sprinters for a few days as their next chance comes on Tuesday when they have enjoyed their first rest day of the race. The next three days are significantly hillier and should offer a stage for the puncheurs, one for the climbers and one for the attackers.

 

While the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana have generally reduced the stage distances – the latter race even barely has a single stage of more than 200km – the Giro d’Italia continues their tradition of having a brutally long stage. The 264km in hilly terrain will definitely take their toll on the riders and will make for an interesting dynamic as it will require a massive effort to control such a long stage that will generally be raced into a cross-headwind.

 

The finale is definitely too hard for the pure sprinters but it should be a big goal for the puncheurs and classics riders. It is the third of four stages in the first week that has made the opening part of the race tailor-made for that kind of riders who have travelled to Italy in large numbers.

 

Of course the main issue is whether it will be possible to control such a long stage and the key team is Orica-GreenEDGE. They have had a hugely successful first week but after losing the jersey yesterday, they made it clear that they are not done in this race. In fact they have red-circled several stages and there is no doubt that tomorrow’s stage is one of their biggest goals.

 

Michael Matthews has proved that he is one of the best uphill sprinters in the world and this finale is simply tailor-made for him. The Australian team have proved that they are never afraid of taking the responsibility on the days that suit them well. Of course it remains to be seen whether they can keep the break in check in such a long stage after what has been a hard first week.

 

However, they have actually not been riding very much on the front. They had to work hard in stage 2 but in stages 3 and 4, they played it wisely by sending Pieter Weening, Simon Clarke and Esteban Chaves on the attack. Yesterday they rode on the front for most of the day but they only set a moderate pace as they didn’t want to catch the break.

 

Of course the first days have been hard for Clarke, Chaves, Matthews, Weening and Simon Gerrans but the heavy guys Michael Hepburn, Luke Durbridge, Sam Bewley and Brett Lancaster have not had too much work. Hence, they should still be pretty fresh and they are perfectly suited to control such a long stage whose early part is mainly flat.

 

They may even get some assistance from the Movistar and BMC teams. There is no doubt that the stage is a big goal for Juan Jose Lobato and Philippe Gilbert who will be keen to test themselves in this kind of finale. Fabio Felline will also have options so Trek may also come to the fore. This means that there should be plenty of firepower to bring back the break.

 

Nonetheless, there is a chance that they will throw in the towel if a big group gets clear early on and so we can expect a fast start with lots of attacks. However, the flat start should make it easier to control for Orica-GreenEDGE and unless a big group gets clear, we expect the break to be caught before they get to the two climbs in the finale.

 

None of the two ascents are steep as the gradient is always around 4-5% but it will be enough to send the sprinters out the back door. It would be no surprise to see Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC hit the front with their strong climbers to make the race hard for the fast riders on the two late ascents. That should make it impossible for the likes of Greipel and Viviani to be in contention for this kind of stage which is likely to be decided in a sprint from a reduced peloton.

 

The final two kilometres are all uphill and it only gets steeper and steeper. The final 500m have a gradient of 4%, meaning that it is a perfect sprint for the puncheurs. Furthermore, the finale is not very technical so it will be all about power in an uphill sprint at the end of 264km.

 

It is hard to look beyond Matthews as the favourite to win the stage. The Australian is clearly in great condition and has proved that he is one of the best uphill sprinters in the world. He won a lot harder sprints in last year’s Vuelta and in last year’s Giro and he can rely on a great team to put him into the perfect position. Pieter Weening, Esteban Chaves and Simon Clarke can make the race hard on the climbs and then he will have Simon Gerrans to lead him out. If Orica-GreenEDGE can control this long stage, Matthews will be the man to beat.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Juan Jose Lobato. In the early part of the year, the Spaniard was virtually unbeatable in the uphill sprints. He beat John Degenkolb twice in the Ruta del Sol and he took a very impressive WorldTour win in the famous uphill sprint in Stirling at the Tour Down Under. Last year he won uphill sprints in the Tour de Wallonie and the Vuelta a Burgos.

 

When it comes to pure speed in these finales, Lobato is probably the strongest and the main issue for him will be to get into a good position. He is very bad at positioning himself which was evident in today’s stage where he again had to start very early to make up for this. However, he did a very impressive sprint and no one can question his speed.

 

In this kind of tough finale, he will have a better chance as the field will be a much smaller. With Movistar’s many climbers they should have strength in numbers and for once he may have a solid team to lead him out. If he starts the sprint from a good position, Lobato is our favourite to win.

 

Fabio Felline has had an amazing 2015 season and he nearly topped it off with a win on stage 3. Tomorrow he will again have his chance in stage that suits him down to the ground. He prefers uphill sprints and with his improved climbing, he will be even stronger than the likes of Lobato and Matthews on the ascents which may leave him fresher at the finish.

 

The main issue for Felline will be team support. Trek is mostly made up of lead-out men for Nizzolo and he could find himself isolated in the finale. However, an in-form Kristof Vandewalle should be able to handle this finale and if he can position Felline, the Italian has the speed to win.

 

Philippe Gilbert has had to shelve his ambition of wearing the maglia rosa so now it is all about a stage win. Tomorrow’s stage suits him pretty well and he will be keen to give it a go. He has been climbing very well and is clearly in good condition despite his Fleche Wallonne crash. He will prefer the finale to be as hard as possible and BMC have the team to make it tough. With Damiano Caruso and Silvan Dillier to position him, he will be strong in this uphill sprint.

 

Francesco Gavazzi proved his strength when he rode in the break on stage 3 and in general he has improved his climbing a lot. He likes this kind of uphill sprint and has won a much tougher stage at the WorldTour level in the Tour of Beijing. The Italian is a perennial contender in these sprints but rarely seems to take the win. This year he seems to have the level to buck the trend.

 

The first part of the Giro has not been very successful for CCC Polsat who have been forced to shelve their GC ambitions with Sylwester Szmyd. Tomorrow they will have a very good chance with Grega Bole who is perfectly suited to this kind of uphill sprint. The Slovenian was one of only very few sprinters to survive the climbing in stage 3 but a spectator prevented him from shining in the sprint. With Maciej Paterski to lead him out, he has a great team to support him.

 

Bardiani have two great cards to play in this stage. Last year Sonny Colbrelli dominated the Italian one-day racing scene and he excels in this kind of uphill sprints. He has had a tough 2015 but his great performance in stage 4 proves that his legs have started to come around. This sprint is tailor-made for him and he should be a contender.

 

The same can be said for his teammate Enrico Battaglin who won a similar sprint two years ago. He has not reached his best condition in 2014 but he managed to make it back to the peloton in stage 3. This stage has less tough climbing and so there is little doubt that he will be there in the finale.

 

Luca Paolini is in search of a second stage win in the Giro and he seems to be well-prepared for this event. He surprised many by making it into the group that sprinted for the win in stage 3. In the flat stages he is working for Alexander Porsev but tomorrow he should get the chance to sprint for himself.

 

Luka Mezgec is definitely no pure sprinter. In fact he can survive some pretty tough climbing which he recently proved in the Tour de Romandie. He doesn’t seem to have his top end speed at the moment but he seems to be climbing excellently well. This means that tomorrow’s stage may actually be one of his best chances. It remains to be seen if it will be too tough for him but he could be there in the end.

 

The same can be said for Sacha Modolo who is also able to survive some pretty tough climbing. The Italian recently won a hard uphill sprint in Turkey and he likes this kind of finish. Like Mezgec he still has to survive the challenges but if he is there in the end, he obviously has the speed to win.

 

Alessandro Petacchi will be keen to get his revenge after he was beaten by Ventoso in Fiuggi in 2011. The veteran is still riding very strongly as he showed in the Tour of Turkey and by taking two top 10 results in this race. He is a very good climber and nowadays he needs harder finales to come out on top as he no longer has the same top speed.

 

Finally, Simon Gerrans deserves a mention. It is not completely impossible that Orica-GreenEDGE reverse the roles and give their captain a chance to sprint. He likes this kind of uphill sprint and he definitely has the speed to win. He will probably be used as a final lead-out man for Matthews but if he gets his chance, he will be one of the favourites. He may also join an early break for the team and if that is the case, he will be very hard to beat in this kind of finale.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Juan Jose Lobato, Fabio Felline

Outsiders: Philippe Gilbert, Grega Bole, Francesco Gavazzi, Sonny Colbrelli

Jokers: Enrico Battaglin, Luca Paolini, Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo, Alessandro Petacchi, Simon Gerrans, Kevin Reza, Paolo Tiralongo, Oscar Gatto