The first week of the Giro d’Italia has been very selective and the riders have not even had their first big summit finish yet. Tomorrow is finally the day for the first big clash between the favourites on a tougher climb and the Campitello Matese ascent will give the first clear indications of who is going to come out on top when the race ends in Milan in a little more than two weeks.

 

The course

The Giro d’Italia has often had the first major summit finish on the second Saturday in the race and this year it will again be the 8th stage that offers the GC riders the first bigger chance to make a difference. Like the previous summit finish in stage 5, the final climb to Campitello Matese is not overly tough but it is so steep that there will no longer be any reason for the climbers to hold anything back, with the long time trial looming in the horizon.

 

The 186km start in Fiuggi and finishes at the top of the category 1 climb to Campitello Matese as the riders now start their journey from the Tyrrhenian to the Adriatic coast before they turn around and head back towards the major mountains in the northern part of the country. This mountain stage is marked by the lengthy climbs of the two KOMs: Forca d’Acero (category 2, 26km, 5.0%, max. 9%) and Campitello Matese (category 1, 13.0km, 6.9%, max. 12%). After the start, the route hits Alatri, Veroli and Sora on largely flat roads. This is where the long Forca d’Acero climb begins, leading first to Abruzzo, and then fast to Molise (past Ponte Zittola). It is a long, very regular climb with no really steep parts and a short descent at the midpoint. A long and easy-to-ride descent leads to Isernia along the new ss. 17 expressway, which features a series of tunnels. Past Isernia, a further stretch on wide and slightly hilly road leads to the final Campitello Matese climb.

 

The final climb is over 15km in length. After the first deceptive false-flat drag, the route gets to the town of San Massimo (the last urban centre before reaching the finish) with gradients of approx. 10%, then it takes the road leading to the finish (large, well-surfaced and with wide hairpin bends extending up to 1 km from the finish). It is very regular with a constant gradient of 6-8%. The steepest 10% section comes just after the 3km mark. Starting from the last kilometre, the road descends slightly up to 250 m from the finish. Here the road levels out on the home straight, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road. There are two hairpin bends just before the flamme rouge and then a sweeping right-hand turn 250m from the line.

 

The final climb has hosted a stage finish 6 times in the past, most recently in 2002 when Gilberto Simoni held off Francesco Casagrande and a small group of favourites by 4 seconds. He was later disqualified due to a positive doping test and the UCI has decided not to award the stage win to another rider.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had their first taste of rain in today’s stage but they avoided any kind of major downpour. However, there seems to no longer be any chance to escape wet conditions as the first big mountain stage is set to be made even tougher by rainy weather.

 

Rain is forecasted for most of the day but there is a chance that it will have stopped for the final part of the stage. It will also be significantly colder than it has been recently as the maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb will be just 16 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for the first part of the stage before they turn into a crosswind in the run-in to the final climb. On the ascent, there will be a cross-headwind which may make the climb slightly less selective.

 

The favourites

Going into the Giro d’Italia, everybody expected the first week to be a tough one but no one really expected bigger time gaps to open up. In fact, it was a general consensus that only the team time trial would be able to create any differences between the 5-10 best GC riders and most were looking to the summit finish on Campitello Matese as the first big GC day of the race.

 

However, the first seven stages have taken a much bigger toll on the riders than was predicted and several GC riders have already been distanced by several minutes. The prediction may have been true for the three best riders in the race but for the rest of the hopeful top 10 contenders, the first week has been a tough one. Rigoberto Uran is of course the big loser and he goes into the major battles with 1.22 to make up on Alberto Contador if he wants to win the race.

 

Now it is finally time for the day that has been predicted to offer a big show between the GC rivals and with the long time trial looming on the horizon, the climbers cannot allow themselves to let this opportunity slip away. As it is the case for most of the finishing climbs in this year’s race, the final climb is not very tough – this one is actually one of the toughest of the entire race – but a rider like Fabio Aru needs to start to gain time if he wants to stand on the top step of the podium in Milan.

 

The big issue that will significantly change the dynamics of and expectations for this stage, is of course Alberto Contador’s condition. There is no doubt that the race leader was planning to go on the attack in this stage but that is probably no longer the case. For a rider who is usually standing a lot in the pedals, it is a huge setback to have hurt his shoulder.

 

However, Contador didn’t seem to be bothered by the issue in today’s stage and he was looking like his old self when he danced in the pedals. He may have claimed that he needs to be more cautious tomorrow but he looked pretty confident at the end of the stage. Nonetheless, his injury puts a major question mark on his performance.

 

It may be a bit cynical but Fabio Aru and Richie Porte of course have to make the most of this opportunity to gain time on the Spaniard before he recovers. Furthermore, Aru only has a limited number of chances to gain time in this race and he can’t allow this one to slip away to show some kind of fairness. Contador may be injured but there will be no holding back by the favourites on the final climb.

 

The first summit finish of the race was won from a breakaway and there is no doubt that a lot of riders will have been inspired by Jan Polanc’s triumphant ride. Many want to go on the attack and this kind of stage a breakaway always has a good chance. Hence, we can expect a very fast start to the stage where it will be difficult for teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana to control the situation.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo may not want to control the stage too hard as they are still a bit uncertain about what to expect from Contador but we expect Fabio Aru to want to win this one. His Astana team have been very aggressive and he wants a stage win in the books as soon as possible. This one is one of his best chances in the entire race and so we expect Astana to control the stage and make it back together for the favourites to fight for the stage win. Aru will also be in need of bonus seconds and he doesn’t want a breakaway to take them away from him.

 

The first part of the stage is not very difficult but if a big group gets clear on the small uncategorized climb after 20km of racing, the break may stay away. However, we expect this stage to be won by one of the GC riders. Furthermore, a lot of strong attackers want to save their energy for Sunday’s stage which is destined to be one for an escape.

 

On the final climb, it will be interesting to see which teams take control. Usually, Sky want to set a steady, hard pace for Richie Porte but until now they have been pretty passive. Tinkoff-Saxo would usually make it hard to set Contador up for an attack but with his injuries they may choose a different tactic. Astana are most likely to hit the front but they may also ride aggressively to put riders up the road an put their rivals under pressure.

 

There is no doubt that Aru will attack at some point and if he is feeling well, Contador will also try his hand. Again we can expect a big battle between the three best climbers in the race and the final climb is definitely hard enough to make a difference.

 

Until now, Richie Porte has flown a bit under the radar but he has actually looked very strong. He followed the attacks on stage 4 and on the Abetone climb, he rode very wisely. He didn’t follow Contador immediately and instead he let Aru do the work. When the Italian started to fade, he moved to the fore and easily bridged the gap to Contador.

 

Porte used the same tactics in the Volta a Catalunya queen stage. He didn’t respond to Contador’s attack but gradually reeled him in and finally distanced the Spaniard. He knows that he doesn’t have the searing acceleration of the Tinkoff leader and he rides wisely not to go into the red zone.

 

On the Abetone climb, he again had enough left to make a counter-attack but as they had reached the easier part, it was impossible to get clear. However, Porte has clearly left the impression of being the strongest rider at the moment and if he hadn’t been closed towards the barriers, he may even have won the sprint for third. With Contador maybe not at 100%, we expect Porte to ride away with the win.

 

However, we definitely won’t rule Contador. As said, he didn’t look too bothered by his injuries in today’s stage and everybody knows that he likes to play games with the media. When he is at 100%, Chris Froome is probably the only rider who can match him in the mountains and even though he is not there yet, we wouldn’t be surprised if he rides away with another solo victory. Furthermore, he is faster than Porte in this flat sprint which will give him an advantage if they are equally matched.

 

Fabio Aru has been riding strongly in the early part of the race and it seems that he has taken another step compared to last year. However, he was clearly the weakest of the trio on Abetone and it is hard to imagine that he will be able to drop an in-form Porte. However, he has proved that he knows how to time his attacks when the favourites look too much at each other. That’s how he has won three grand tour stages in the past and he could do so again tomorrow. Furthermore, he is faster than both Contador and Porte in a sprint so if it comes down to the final metres, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

If the GC riders end up deciding this stage, it is hard to imagine that the winner will not be Porte, Contador and Aru. However, there is always the chance of an outsider exploiting the tactical battle between the main favourites to ride away with the victory and that will again be possible if the trio turn out to be equally matched.

 

One of those riders is Ryder Hesjedal. The 2012 Giro champion lost a lot of time in stage 4 as he was badly placed when the peloton split but he actually made an impressive performance to limit his losses with the support of Tom Danielson. The Canadian seems to be in great condition and seems to be one of the strongest riders in the race. He won’t be far off the best riders on the climb and he has the right aggressive mindset to go on the attack.

 

In stage 4, Jurgen van den Broeck looked like the best of the rest behind the top 3 riders but he suffered in stage 5. It remains to be seen whether it was just a bad day or if he is still among the very best riders in this race. On paper, he should be the fourth best climber in this race and even though he has had a few bad years, he seems to be back on track. His performance in stage 4 makes us believe that he could be the rider to take off.

 

The same goes for Yury Trofimov who seems to be better than ever. The Russian has occasionally reached a good level like in Pais Vasco last year but in this race he seems to be very comfortable on the climbs. As he is no big name, he won’t be too heavily marked and so he could be the rider to attack in the finale.

 

Mikel Landa is clearly riding very strongly in this race which is no major surprise. The Basque has always been capable of great things but has missed the consistency. This year he seems to have improved that aspect and he has been strong ever since Pais Vasco. In stage 5, he sacrificed himself for Aru but tomorrow he may have a different role. With an attack, he can put Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky under pressure and if he gets a gap, he will be very hard to catch. The same goes for his teammate Dario Cataldo who can play a similar role as he is also well-placed on GC.

 

Damiano Caruso is the BMC leader for this race and he seems to be riding really well. He is not far off the best on the climbs and in last year’s Vuelta he showed that he has the consistency. He is a very aggressive rider and will be able to go on the attack in the finale. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and will be impossible to beat if he has some company.

 

If a break stays away, it will be a very good idea to keep an eye on Movistar. The Spanish team have numerous cards to play and definitely want to have a rider on the attack. Benati Intxausti, Jesus Herrada and Ruben Fernandez have all lost lots of time and will have the freedom. The latter two have shown good condition and the former will be more comfortable in the colder weather. They all have the skills to finish it off in this kind of stage.

 

The same goes for Giovanni Visconti who is very well-placed on GC. He aims at taking the maglia rosa but he knows that his best chance comes on Sunday. Hence, he will probably try to limit his losses tomorrow before going on the attack on Sunday. However, if a big group goes clear, he may try his hand and with his improved climbing – he is 2kg lighter than usual – he will be hard to beat.

 

Bardiani have two great cards to play in a breakaway. Stefano Pirazzi and Manuel Bongiorno both seem to be riding very well at the moments and they will both aim at this stage. Pirazzi has been riding strongly since Trentino and Bongiorno has looked very comfortable on the climbs in this race. If they make it into the right break, they will be hard to beat.

 

Sebastien Reichenbach was aiming for the GC in this race but he will now have to turn his attention to stage wins. However, he still seems to be riding at a solid level and as a pure climber he will be able to finish it off if he joins the right break.

 

Finally, it would be no surprise to see BMC put Darwin Atapuma in the break. They know that he won’t be a GC contender in Milan so they may try to use his good GC position to take the maglia rosa. Tinkoff-Saxo will be keen to give it to the Colombian who is climbing better than ever in this race.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Richie Porte

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Fabio Aru

Outsiders: Ryder Hesjedal, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Mikel Landa, Yury Trofimov, Damiano Caruso

Jokers: Dario Cataldo, Benat Intxausti (breakaway), Jesus Herrada (breakaway), Ruben Fernandez (breakaway), Giovanni Visconti (breakaway), Manuel Bongiorno (breakaway), Stefano Pirazzi (breakaway), Sebastien Reichenbach (breakaway), Darwin Atapuma (breakaway), Jonathan Monsalve (breakaway)