The first week of the Giro d’Italia has been brutal and it is only fitting that the first third of the race ends with another very tough stage. The course for the ninth day of the race is full of ups and downs and includes some very tough climbing that makes it a perfect day for a breakaway to decide the win while the GC riders may test each other on a short, steep climb in the finale.

 

The course

The riders are now looking forward to their first rest day after a long first week of very hilly racing but first they have to get through another hilly ride in the Apennines. The start and finishing cities are located very close to each other but the riders will have to do a tough loop in the mountainous area that includes almost no flat roads.

 

At 215km, it is the second stage with a distance of more than 200km and brings the riders from Benevento to San Giorgio del Sannio. It is a very wavy stage, with a total difference in altitude just under 4,000 metres. The first wavy and rough part of the route rolls across the Benevento area, hitting Pietrelcina, Benevento and Atripalda. Here the course enters the Irpinia region, with a long and easy-to-ride climb up Monte Termino (category 2, 20.9km, 4.2%, max. 9%) with no really steep sections, preceding the more challenging Colle Molella (Lago Laceno) ascent (category 1, 9.5km, 6.3%, max.12%) where Domenic Pozzovivo won a stage in 2012. This climb has a very easy first part but then includes a brutal section with a gradient of 9-12% over 2km before it levels out near the top. The route then follows the constant undulations that lead through Lioni, Sant’Angelo dei Lombardi and Castelvetere sul Calore up to 20 km from the finish, where the harsh Passo Serra climb (category 2, 3.6km, 8.0%, max. 13%) will lead to the final kilometres of the stage. The road surface is worn out (and narrow at points) over some sectors.

 

The Passo Serra climb has a really demanding central sector, reaching double-digit gradients. The summit is located 11.6km from the finish. A short, brisk descent follows, up to 5 km from the finish. Another short climb of 2km with a 4.9% gradient and a stretch on flat city roads precede the 600-m long home straight (on 7-m wide asphalt road), with a 3% gradient. The finale is pretty technical as there are several turns between the 3km to go mark and the flamme rouge. The final two turns come with 1.2km and 0.6km to go respectively.

 

 

San Giorgio del Sannio has only hosted a stage finish once, in 1987 when Rosoli took the win.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had their first day in the rain but they were lucky that things improved for the second part of the stage and only the first third was raced in really bad conditions. Most will be glad to know that they will be back in the sun for stage 9 which will take place on a partly cloudy day. It will be a bit cloudier towards the end of the stage but rain is not forecasted. Furthermore, it will again be very hot as the maximum temperature at the finish will be 25 degrees.

 

It will be unusually windy in this area as there will be a rather strong wind from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day. In the finale, there will be a headwin on the Passo Serra climb and a cross-headwind on the descent. Just before the 5km to go mark, the riders turn into a cross-tailwind. There will be a short crosswind section with 2km to go before the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

Campitello Matese turned out to be less selective than expected as neither Fabio Aru nor Richie Porte who both tried to attack, could make a difference. Apart from Alberto Contador picking up 2 bonus seconds, it is status quo between the three race favourites who will now go into survival mode for another week as the next big battle is likely to come next Saturday in the long time trial which may be the most decisive stage of the entire race.

 

With a brutally fast start, today’s stage turned into another very brisk affair and the riders reached the finish earlier than expected. Hence, there will be lots of tired legs in the peloton when they roll out from the start in tomorrow’s stage but there will be absolutely no room for recovery. Even though stage 9 is not one for the GC riders, the lumpy course could make it one of the hardest days of the entire race.

 

The stage has breakaway written all over it. The hilly terrain makes it almost impossible to control and as the finale is not hard enough for the GC riders to make a difference, the major teams will be keen to get safely to the rest day. It is evidently too hard for even the Michael Matthews kind of sprinter and only the strongest teams will be able to control the race in this kind of terrain. This means that the strong stage hunters who can survive this kind of tough climbing have marked this one out a big goal. Many obvious attackers held something back in today’s stage as they wanted to be fresh for tomorrow where the early break is almost destined to make it to the finish.

 

This will make it a brutally fast start to the race and unless a big group gets a gap pretty early, we are likely to race for more than an hour before the break is finally formed. The first part is not overly tough but there are a few small rises that will make it possible for some of the strong riders to take off. However, with this kind of start, it is always a bit more of a lottery which riders will ultimately make it and the group may include riders who have no chance to finish it off in this kind of hilly finale. The riders may even get to the Monte Termino climb before the break gets clear and if that’s the case, we should see a very strong group get clear.

 

A lot of riders who are not too far down on GC will be keen to go on the attack in this stage. Tinkoff-Saxo have clearly indicated that it may be a good idea to lose the jersey at this point and they will gladly give it away to a rider who is no overall danger. Hence, they won’t ride too fast behind the break, even if it includes a rider who is well-placed on GC.

 

When the break has gone clear, the hardest part of the stage is done. From there, Tinkoff-Saxo are likely to set a steady tempo to control the situation while the escapees will decide the stage win. In this kind of stage, there is always the chance that a team which has missed the move, will try to bring it back but in this kind of terrain, it will be very hard to do so and only the strongest teams will be able to control the situation in this terrain.

 

The only thing that can really prevent the break from staying away, is Astana’s desire to make the race hard. We may see the Kazakh team hit the front on the category 1 climb to whittle down the peloton. However, the subsequent kilometres are not too difficult so it will require a massive effort to maintain any kind of advantage and set Aru of for an attack on the final climb where he is unlikely to make a difference. Hence, the break is likely to stay away.

 

Nonetheless, we should see a huge battle for position in the finale as the final climb is hard enough to be a battleground for the GC favourites. Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana or Sky are likely to set a very hard pace and we will be surprised if none of the GC riders make an attack. As Aru, Contador and Porte are unlikely to distance each other, it will probably not make a difference but it could open the door from one of the other GC riders to steal a few seconds by getting clear in the finale.

 

For the escapees, it will be a case of saving energy for the finale. On the category 1 climb, the group should get rid of the non-climbers and only the strongest will be left by the time they get to the final climb. It will not be impossible for a strong rider to anticipate the climb and hold on to the finish but most likely it will come down to a battle on Passo Serra and the subsequent rise in the finale.

 

With the stage likely to be decided from a breakaway, the stage winner will be a strong rider who is no long-term danger in the GC and who can finish it off in this kind of terrain. Giovanni Visconti fits the bill perfectly. The Spaniard has dug very deep in the uphill finishes to limit his losses as he has probably had his sights on this stage to try to take the maglia rosa. He is only 1.17 off the lead and it will be his big goal to get a stint in pink for the second time of his career.

 

Hence, he will do his utmost to make it into the break and with a strong Movistar team to support him, there is a solid chance that he will achieve his goal. Furthermore, he could easily have a teammate at his side in the group which should allow him to save energy for the finale and maximize his time gains.

 

If he makes it into the group, Visconti will be hard to beat in this kind of finale. He is very strong on short, steep climbs and as he is 2kg lighter than usual, he is climbing better than ever before. Furthermore, he is fast in an uphill sprint. The main question is whether he will have to ride too hard to take the jersey but if he is will relatively fresh at the finish, he is an obvious winner candidate. Visconti is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Philippe Gilbert was left frustrated yesterday when he dropped his chain with 1400m to go after his team had worked hard all day. Now he will hope to bounce back and there is no doubt that he has marked tomorrow out as a perfect day to strike. The lumpy terrain suits him well and he seems to be climbing excellently at the moment. The tough climb at the midpoint is clearly too long for him but as the pace will not be too fast at that early point, he should be able to survive. The finale is tailor-made for him as he is strong on short, steep climbs, a great descender and has the speed to finish it off.

 

Diego Ulissi is riding himself into condition as he proved when he won the uphill sprint yesterday. He is already in search of a second win and tomorrow’s stage suits him down to the ground. He was already looking strong in the break on stage 3 and since then his condition has only improved. As an Ardennes specialist, he excels in this kind of terrain and everybody knows how fast he is in an uphill sprint.

 

Jonathan Monsalve has always been a big talent but this year he has clearly stepped up his level. He was riding immensely well in stage 4 and today he clearly saved energy to be ready for tomorrow. He is a very good climber who may also be aiming for the mountains jersey, and so it will be important to be in the break tomorrow. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint which is important in this kind of finale.

 

In the past, this stage would have been too hard for Fabio Felline but that may no longer be the case. The Italian has been climbing better than ever and recently finished third in the Criterium International which includes a big summit finish. Tomorrow’s stage is a big goal for him and with his fast sprint, he has the speed to finish it off. It remains to be seen whether he can survive the climbing but if his escape companions can’t get rid of him, he may improve on his second place from stage 3.

 

Stefano Pirazzi has attacked tirelessly but things haven’t really worked out for him. Tomorrow he will again be keen to make it into the break. He is probably climbing better than ever and he will be hard to follow on the final climb. However, he has to distance his companions there as he is not fast in a sprint.

 

Esteban Chaves cracked in today’s stage and so he is no longer in GC contention. His next big goal will be to win a stage and tomorrow could be a good opportunity. Being a great climber, he excels in this kind of terrain and he is very punchy too. This will be important in this kind of finish.

 

Davide Formolo lost a bit of ground in today’s stage but he is still very much within striking distance of the maglia rosa. Tomorrow may be his final chance to take it and he will be keen to go on the attack. The young Italian is one of the greatest climbing talents and he put his strong climbing on show in stage 4. If he finds himself in the right group, he could both take the stage win and the maglia rosa.

 

Simon Gerrans is getting back into his best condition as he showed with his third place in stage 3. He is still in search of his first win of the season and tomorrow’s stage could be one of his best opportunities in this race. The terrain may be a bit too hard for him but if he can survive the final climb with best from a breakaway, he will probably win the uphill sprint.

 

Ryder Hesjedal has lost a bit of time but he is still riding for GC. He would love to get some of that time back and he knows that a breakaway in a stage like tomorrow’s is his best chance. The Canadian has a very aggressive mindset and his performance when he chased solo in stage 4, proves that he is riding pretty well. If he makes it into the right group, he could turn out to be the strongest on the final climb.

 

Andrey Amador is the second Movistar rider in the top 10 and like Visconti, he will do his utmost to make it into the break. Tinkoff-Saxo would gladly give him a stint in the maglia rosa and he is definitely strong enough to join the right break and be there in the finale. However, he is not very fast so it may be hard for him to win the stage.

 

Stef Clement is known as a time trial specialist but he is actually also a very strong climber. Today he was just 2.30 off the winning time and he will be keen to use his good form to escape in this stage. With his skills on the flats, he has a big chance of making it into the right group. He is no fast sprinter but if he can anticipate the fast guys before the final climb, he will be hard to catch.

 

Ruben Fernandez and Jesus Herrada are two other Movistar cards who can both shine in this terrain and both are fast in an uphill sprint. Orica-GreenEDGE have both Simon Clarke and Pieter Weening who will both be keen to attack too and the former has the speed to win an uphill sprint. In general, Movistar and Orica-GreenEDGE have so many cards to play that it will be a big surprise if both those teams don’t have a rider in the break that is likely to decide the stage.

 

As we expect the stage to be won from a breakaway, all our picks are based on the assumption that the break will make it to the finish.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giovanni Visconti

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Jonathan Monsalve, Fabio Felline, Stefano Pirazzi, Esteban Chaves, Davide Formolo, Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Ryder Hesjedal, Andrey Amador, Stef Clement, Ruben Fernandez, Jesus Herrada, Simon Clarke, Pieter Weening