The end of the cycling season is drawing closer but one of the most prestigious classics is still up for grabs. Being one of only five cycling monuments, Il Lombardia is a highly coveted race with a deep history and traditionally signals the end of the cycling year. A very hilly course makes it the toughest of the monuments and its new date has again made it attract a formidable line-up even though the race doesn’t have the same feel of Worlds revenge match that it has had recently.

 

At this time of the year, it is usually hard for riders to stay motivated and most of the big names are mostly longing for a break at the end of what has been a long, testing season. However, the biggest climbers have one incentive to keep going all the way to the end: the chance to add Il Lombardia to their palmares.

 

The Italian race is joined by Milan-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on the list of cycling's 5 monuments - the five most prestigious one-day races - and so a win in the Italian classic is a career-defining moment. Unlike its fellow monuments which are all spring races, Il Lombardia is held in the autumn. This is probably the main reason for the fact that the race is usually regarded as the least prestigious of the biggest races as it is held at a time when fewer riders are in peak condition and when the public interest in cycling is in decline.

 

While the race may be a little less coveted than its fellow monuments, it is the one that makes the climbers dream. Alongside Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the only monument that the stage race specialists and climbers can realistically target and with longer ascents than in Liege, it suits the real mountain goats better than the Belgian classic. This fact is reflected in the winners list which is loaded with Ardennes specialists and strong climbers.

 

While races like Sanremo, Roubaix and Liege are bound by their names and history to follow certain routes, Il Lombardia is much more diverse. Like Flanders, it is a tour through a certain region and this creates plenty of room for variation of the courses. The start and finishing cities and the courses have all varied a lot during the years and the race will never get any kind of fixed format. The only real signature symbols of the race are the Lake Como and the Madonna del Ghisallo climb. The steep ascent leads to the small church and a museum containing both religious and cycling objects and is one of the landmark climbs in professional cycling. While the climb is usually located too far from the finish to be the scene of the decisive attack, its toughness makes it a crucial place in any edition of the Lombardy race.

 

The race was first held in 1905 when it was known as Milan-Milan before being named Giro di Lombardia two years later. Since then, the race has been held every year, with 1943 and 1944 being the only exceptions. Until 1960, it started and finished in Milan but in 1961 the finish was moved closer to the hills in Como. Since then it has finished in Milan, Monza, Bergamo and Como before the finish was moved to site in Lecco for the 2011, 2012 and 2013 edition. The race has mostly started in Milan but has had several exceptions. The 2012 and 2013 editions started in Bergamo while Como played an unusual role as the starting city in 2014. After three years with identical finales and two years with very similar courses, the route was given a major overhaul for 2014 in what was probably the easiest version in recent years. This year the race has gone in the completely opposite direction as the organizers have decided the hardest course in several year

 

The race has been won by most of the biggest names in cycling, with Fausto Coppi holding the record with 5 wins. Surprisingly, Eddy Merckx has only triumphed twice and Sean Kelly and Henri Pelissier are the only non-Italian riders with three wins on their palmares. In recent years, the race has been dominated by Damiano Cunego, Michele Bartoli, Paolo Bettini, Philippe Gilbert and Joaquim Rodriguez who have all won the race at least twice, with the former rider being the only of them with three wins.

 

Due to its autumn date, the race is known as the "race of the falling leaves" and is the crown jewel of the many Italian autumn classics that are held during the month of October. With a tough course and many riders being fatigued, it is often characterized by many withdrawals and often produces surprise results. At this time of the year, it is more about freshness than anything else.

 

Until 2012, the race was the final big European race of the season and many riders found it difficult to keep going from the World Championships until Il Lombardia. To attract bigger names and create synergy with the Worlds, the UCI restructured the calendar by moving the Italian classic to the weekend just after the global contest and postponing Paris-Tours to Il Lombardia's usual weekend. The shorter time gap should allow more riders to stay fresh and so add prestige to one of cycling's most important races. It may no longer signal the real end of the season but the start list has certainly been boosted by the move. Nowadays, it seems like all climbers that do the Worlds, postpone their off-season until after Il Lombardia. The synergy has been made even bigger by the fact that the 2012, 2013 and 2014 Worlds were all held on hilly courses, meaning that lots of climbers had been riding in the battle for the rainbow jersey. Until 2012, the race was held on a Saturday but in 2013 it was moved to the Sunday after the World Championships. Next year it will be back on a Saturday though.

 

This year it has less of a revenge feel as the course in Richmond was suited to a different kind of riders than the expected protagonists in Lombardia, meaning that most of the key contenders have either prepared for the race in Europe or tried to keep their Vuelta condition by training. Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Rafal Majka, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Dumoulin, Tony Gallopin, Adam Yates, Rigoberto Uran, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink are all looking forward to returning to hillier terrain after trying to make the most of the flat roads in Richmond while Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet, Tim Wellens and Warren Barguil all stayed in Europe to specifically prepare for this race. Meanwhile, Vuelta protagonists Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa and Esteban Chaves have tried to recover from their exploits and hope to have maintained their excellent condition.

 

Instead of being a Worlds revenge, the race plays another important role. With the Tour of Beijing disappearing from the calendar, Il Lombardia is back in its former position as the final race on the WorldTour calendar. This means that it will decide the battle for the top honours in the season-long competition. Alejandro Valverde has already won the individual competition but the battle for the teams win will go down to the wire, with Movistar and Katusha both still in contention for a title that seems to have gained more prestige in recent years.

 

Last year an unusually easy course made for a less selective race and it more came down to tactics than climbing strength. After Tim Wellens had launched an unsuccessful bid for glory, it was a small 9-rider group that was formed on the final climb. Dan Martin showed his tactical astuteness by launching a well-timed move and as everyone was looking at Alejandro Valverde to bring him back, the Irishman held his chasers off for his second monument win before Valverde beat Rui Costa in the sprint for second. After crashing out of the Vuelta, Martin goes into the title defence as a big unknown while Valverde will be back to finally win one of the hilly one-day races still missing from his palmares. Costa will also be back, hoping to benefit from the good form he showed in the Canadian WorldTour races.

 

The course

As said, there is nothing fixed about the course for Il Lombardia which has changed several times over the years. Several times the race seems to have found its format but apparently organizers RCS Sport are keen not to have any kind of monotony and recognisability. Whenever the race has had the same finale for a number of years, the course is always given a major overhaul.

 

After three years with the finish in Lecco and the final climb of the Villa Vergano, last year saw another change. The course was completely different from the one used in the latest editions and only the landmark climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo and the scenic run along the Lake Como provided the riders with any kind of familiarity. The rest of the course was completely new and both the start and finish had been moved. Bergamo which hosted the finish from 1995 to 2003 was again the scene of the arrival of the final monument of the season while Como was chosen as start city. However, the terrain around Bergamo is less hilly than the Como hills and so the edition was far less selective than it has been in the past.

 

This year the trend has been reversed and the 2015 edition shapes up to be the hardest in recent memory. All the main features of the hard 2012 and 2013 races are back but by moving the finish to Como, they come much closer to the finish. Most notably, the brutally steep Muro di Sormano will be a key moment for the first time. Instead of hosting the finish, Bergamo has been chosen as the starting city.

 

The new course can be divided into two parts. The first 170km don’t give the impression that this is a race for climbers but the final 75km are really horrible. After its unusually early position in last year’s race, the landmark climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo is back in the final part of the race and will start hostilities. For the first time in recent history, the riders will head straight to the brutal Muro di Sormano before they even get to the descent, meaning that it will be 25km of almost uninterrupted and very hard climbing. Then the terrain gets a bit easier before the short Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia climbs serve as the deciders before the peloton descends to the finish in Como.

 

At 245km, the race is a bit shorter than a typical monument. It will start in Bergamo and the first 50km consist of a run through the southern outskirts of the city that is located just north of the very flat Po Valley. This means that it will be a very easy start to the race. It will be the scene of some very aggressive racing where the early break will be established. In past years, it has often been important to have teammates up the road and it is never a disadvantage if a few support riders can make it over the Muro di Sormano and provide some valuable assistance in the finale. However, the major teams are likely to mark each other closely and we should get a break of riders from some of the smaller teams.

 

The riders will start the climbing action at the 49km mark where they will hit the bottom of the Colle Gallo (7.43km, 6.0%, max. 10%). After an easy start, it gradually gets steeper, with the final few kilometres averaging 7-8%. However, it is a very regular climb. After the descent, it is back into flat terrain as the riders travel east before they turn north to start the second climb at the 108km mark. The Colle Brianza is an easy ascent that never gets really steep.

 

From there, it is another short section of flat roads as the riders travel north to touch the shores of the Como Lake before they briefly turn around and then head back north towards the lake. Here the terrain is slightly undulating until the riders descend to the city of Onno on the shores. They will get here at the 164km mark and they will ride north along the lakefront for another 8km before the real action will start. This opening phase with lots of flats and two smaller climbs will mainly serve to accumulate fatigue while the main teams keep the break firmly in check. As we get closer to the finale, the fight for position will intensify and the speed will ramp up.

 

The climbing hostilities will start for real with 72.5km to go when the riders hit the lower slopes of the landmark climb of Madonna del Ghisallo (8.58km, 6.2%, max. 14%). With a gradient of more than 9%, the first 3km are the hardest while the middle section is flat, even with a slight descent. In the end, the climb kicks up again for 1.2km at a 9.5% gradient. As usual, the bell will be ringing to signal the arrival of Il Lombardia but as it will be the first of four tough challenges it will not be the place for the favourites to show their cards. Instead, it is the time for some teams to make the race hard by riding tempo on the front or send riders up the road. Very often a strong group of climbers animate the finale of Il Lombardia and it would be no surprise to see a strong breakaway being established at this point. Il Lombardia has often been marked by long-distance attacks and in 2013 Thomas Voeckler got close to victory by attacking from afar.

 

Usually, the riders have descended back to the lake after the passage of Madonna del Ghisallo but this tear the organizers have changed things in a brutal way. Instead, there will only be a short 6km descent before the riders hit the famous Colma di Sormano climb. The first 5.1km are no big challenge as they are very regular and average just 6.6%. However, they are just the warm-up for the final 1.92km that are known as the Muro di Sormano and average a massive 15.8%, with peaks of 27% inside the final kilometre. The summit is located just 50.4km from the finish. It is probably still too early for the favourites to go all in in an attack but history shows that a big selection is always made at this crucial point, meaning that a very select group will be left in contention as the peloton heads down the descent to the lakeside which they will reach with 37.3km to go.

 

The riders will now get their final chance to recover as they head along the lakefront for 16km along flat roads until they get to Como for the first time. Here they will embark on the first of two circuits in the hilly terrain around the city as they go up the Civiglio climb (4.2km, 9.7%, max. 14%) before descending back to the city. It’s a very regular climb that is always steep and leaves no room for recovery. The summit is located just 16.6km from the finish and with barely a metre of flat in the final part of the race, this very hard climb could be where the decisive move is made.

 

If no one managed to make a decisive difference on the Civiglio, there is one final chance. After the descent to Como, there is a very short flat section before the riders embark on their second circuit around the city. With 8km to go, they will hit the bottom of the San Fermo della Battaglia (3.3km, 7.2%, max. 10%). It is another very regular climb, with the steepest section coming just before the top which is located just 5.3km from the finish. They consist of a 3.8km descent, averaging 5.3%, and a short 1.5km flat section. The descent runs along a wide and well-paved road, with two well-lit tunnels and two wide roundabouts and is not technical. There are a few turns in quick succession with 2.5km though. Thn it is mostly a straight road along the lakefront. One last, wide left-hand bend can be found 600 m before the finish. The home straight is on 7-m wide asphalt road.

 

The relatively short final climbs are suited to puncheurs but as they come at the end of a grueling day with lots of climbing, the climbers will have a much better chance to ride away than they have had in past years. Especially, the Civiglio ascent is very tough and it will definitely be possible for a solo rider to make a race-winning move here. In the past, sprinting skills and punchiness have always been important skills in Lombardy and they are still very strong assets but this year Il Lombardia is likely to be a real race of attrition and a hugely selective affair that can be won by climbers and stage race specialists.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Many recent editions of Il Lombardia have been marred by bad weather – especially three years ago when there were no live images from the final climb. With its position as an autumn classic, it is no surprise that rain has often been an important factor. In bright sunshine, the views are stunning but very often we have been robbed the chance to watch the beautiful scenery.

 

This year it seems that we will have another brutal edition of Il Lombardia. Throughout the morning and most of the race, the forecasts predict a 100% chance of rain, with a 75% chance in the finale. A total of 15mm of rain is predicted and there may even be thunderstorms in the final part of the race. The maximum temperature will be just 11 degrees.

 

There will be a very light wind from an easterly and northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind before they get to a long tailwind section after the first climb. From there it will be a mix of cross- and tailwind. There will be a crosswind on the Madonna di Campiglio and a tailwind on the Muro di Sormano. It will be a cross-tailwind as the riders approach Como for the final two climbs. There will be a headwind on the Civiglio and a tailwind on San Fermo della Battaglia. Then it will be a headwind in the final part to the finish.

 

The favourites

A new course always means a new dynamic and lots of uncertainty. While the few variations mean that races like Milan-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix and Liege-Bastogne-Liege usually unfold in a pretty similar way, Il Lombardia’s varying nature means that it is the one that is hardest to predict. Furthermore, it makes it harder for the riders to make their strategy for the race as they know little about how the race will unfold.

 

Over the last few years, the old course had given the race an established format but last year the revamped route threw things up in the air and this year another alteration will make riders uncertain about what to expect. However, while last year’s relatively easy course made it a very tactical battle, things should be a lot clearer in 2015. The brutally hard course means that this is a race for pure climbers and the legs will do the talking. Of course a strong team will always be an advantage but this race will be dominated by the best climbers who are still in form and motivated.

 

The rainy conditions will only make things harder and should make it a real race of attrition. Furthermore, it will be pretty cold and this should make motivation an important issue. At this point of the year, it is always hard to stay motivated and it won’t be made any easier by the prospect of spending more than six hours in the rain and cold. Furthermore, it increases the risk of crashes which have often plagued the race with its many narrow, twisting roads. Very often only a select group of riders reach the finish and on this kind of course with this bad weather, we expect a very small field at the finish of the race.

 

Last year several teams had an interest in making things hard as it was needed on the relatively easy course. This year the climbs will be enough to make things tough and instead the teams will be a bit more cautious, preferring to make sure that they have enough left for the end of the race. We can expect a relatively controlled affair with a small break in the early part of the race and it will be probably be left to Katusha, Movistar and Astana to make sure that the group is kept within a reasonable distance.

 

The race will really kick into life when we get to the Madonna di Ghisallo. We are likely to see some moves from climbers already at this point but we mainly expect Astana to take things into their own hands. The Kazakh team have a formidable line-up and know that Vincenzo Nibali won’t win a sprint. He needs the race to be as hard as possible and with a strong group of climbers at his side, he has the means to get one. As it has been the case in almost every Italian one-day race in the second half of the year, we expect Astana to make the race hard by riding tempo on the two major climbs of the day.

 

Madonna del Ghisallo will make an initial selection and then the brutal wall of Muro di Sormano will leave just a select group of riders to fight it out in the finale. Astana are still likely to have strength in numbers and then we expect the best riders to fight it out on the final two climbs. Civiglio is very hard and with barely any flat after the top, it is possible to attack already here. Unfortunately, there will be headwind which will make it less selective. San Fermo di Battaglia is significantly easier but with a tailwind and at the end of 245km in the rain, it is definitely possible for a rider to escape for a solo win here.

 

Rain, tricky descents, lots of climbs and a long distance. The 2015 edition of Il Lombardia has all the ingredients to be a Vincenzo Nibali race. The Italian has been a protagonist in lots of classics in the past but he still hasn’t achieved that big one-day win. In 2012, he attacked from afar in both Liege and Lombardy and looked like he was going to win both races until he faded in the finale. He was close at the 2013 Worlds but since then he has not been in the mix in the biggest one-day races.

 

That is set to change now. Nibali is in excellent condition at the moment. He was clearly frustrated by the outcome of the Tour de France and that filled him with motivation for the Vuelta. As we wrote in our preview for that race, we had great expectations for him in the Spanish grand tour. In recent years, he seems to have lacked the motivation to train really hard but with the Tour already in his legs, the hard work was done. In fact, we think that he would have won the race if he hadn’t been expelled.

 

Nibali has proved his character by staying motivated after the big disappointment. To be honest, we didn’t expect him to be great after his expulsion but he has proved us wrong. Since he returned to competition in Coppa Agostoni, he has ripped every Italian one-day race apart. Those events are often dominated by strong sprinters but due to Nibali not a single race has been decided in a sprint. Nibali has been in the race-winning move in all five one-day races he has done, most notably with his solo wins in Coppa Bernocchi and Tre Valli Varesini.

 

One may have been disappointed by his showing at the Worlds and to be honest we had expected him to attack at some point. However, he was set back by a mechanical when the Boonen-Kwiatkowski group went and from there it was too late as he was never going to feature in this kind of explosive finale. Hence, he put himself at the service of his team but showed that his form is still excellent by riding to a solo win in Tre Valli Varesine only 24 hours after his return to Europe.

 

Nibali’s big problem has always been his poor sprint which means that he has to arrive solo at the finish. However, this time he has really been done a great favour by the organizers. This hard course gives him his best-ever chance to win a monument and the rainy weather will only make it better for him. We expect him to attack on the Civiglio climb and at the moment we don’t think that anyone will be able to follow him. No one is going to catch him on a wet descent and he likes the long distance. With this hard course, he doesn’t have to attack from afar but can wait until the final two climbs. This makes an in-form Vincenzo Nibali our favourite to win the race.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is already a double winner of this race and he was very hard to beat when the race finished in Lecco where the short, steep climb in the finale suited him perfectly. Last year the race was too easy for him but now he is eager to reclaim his title. The less explosive finale makes it less suited to him but the final climbs are still relatively short so it is still a good course for the Spaniard. After all, he proved in the Vuelta that he is still one of the best climbers in the world.

 

The Spanish grand tour showed that Rodriguez still has what it takes to fight with the best and he always comes out of the race in great condition. He seemed to fade slightly in the final week but that has often been the case. Nonetheless, he has been on fire in Lombardy and we expect the same to be the case this year. He did not really feature in the Worlds road race which he abandoned but he still showed that he had punch in his legs by launching a very powerful attack on Governor’s Street. He was never going to be a contender on that course and in fact we were surprised that he didn’t stay in Europe to prepare for Lombardy.

 

Rodriguez will be extra motivated by the fact that Katusha has a chance to win the WorldTour and it will all depend on him and Daniel Moreno. He has proved that he is strong in rainy conditions and he is a great descender too. Finally, he is fast in a sprint and can beat most of the favourites in a head-to-head battle in Como.

 

Alejandro Valverde is probably the best one-day rider of his generation but for some reason he has never won Il Lombardia. For many years, he usually skipped the race but since he came back from suspension it has always featured on his schedule. In fact he has finished second in the last two editions.

 

The missing win is even more remarkable due to the fact that Valverde is always very competitive in the early and late part of the season. The Spaniard is known for his extreme consistency and this allows him to win at times when many riders are out of form. However, he has been up against an unstoppable Rodriguez twice and last year he was denied the win due to tactics.

 

This year Valverde would love to finally win the big Italian classic but we are a bit uncertain about his form. He was obviously very tired in the Vuelta and even though he finished fifth in Richmond on a course that didn’t really suit him, we would have expected him to feature more prominently in the race. He admitted to have suffered on the final climb and never launched any kind of attack.

 

However, you can never rule Valverde out. Last year he was almost dead at the end of the Tour but six days later he won the Clasica San Sebastian. Furthermore, he has one big advantage: his sprint. None of the favourites are going to beat the Spaniard if it comes down to the finishing straight in Como so he can allow himself to try to follow wheels. He is one of the best on the kind of climbs that will decide the race, he is good in rainy conditions and a great descender. It will be hard for him to follow the best climbers but he may benefit from a tactical battle to get back in contention and win the race by using his lethal sprint.

 

Two years ago Rafal Majka came out of the Vuelta a Espana in great condition and managed to finish third in this race. In general, the Pole always seems to come out strongly of the grand tours – just recall how he won two stages in the Tour and dominated the Tour de Pologne after last year’s Giro.

 

This year he is again in great form after the Spanish race where he just seemed to get better and better as the race went on. 48 hours after returning from Richmond where he worked for Michal Kwiatkowski, he finished an excellent second in Milan-Turin. With less jet lag and a less explosive course, he should be able to do even better in Lombardy.

 

His 2013 performance proves that he can handle the distance but he still has to overcome the wet condition which doesn’t favour him. Furthermore, he is not a fast sprinter so he has to arrive solo at the finish which will be made more difficult by the wet descents which are not to his liking. However, if it comes down to the legs, Majka will be one of the strongest.

 

Bauke Mollema may be best known for his stage race results but he is actually an excellent one-day rider too. In fact, he has been one of the most consistent riders in the Ardennes for a couple of years even though health issues made it impossible for him to perform there in 2015.

 

Mollema has only finished seventh in Lombardy but this year he has his best ever shot at glory. He was in great condition in the Canadian races and the Tour of Alberta and looked very strong in Richmond too where he sacrificed himself for his team. In Lombardy, he will be the team leader and he should find the hard course to his liking. He is strong on both long and short climbs and he has proved that he can handle both the weather and the distance. With his fast sprint, he can even finish it off.

 

Last year Rui Costa finished third in this race and he will be eager to do even better in 2015. After a solid start to the year, it all went wrong in the Tour where a crash forced him to abandon and since then he has flown under the radar. However, he is always very strong at this time of the year and this year it is no different. In fact he was very impressive in the GP Montreal where he led all the way up the finishing straight and still managed to take third behind the leading duo. For him to finish ninth in Richmond on a course that didn’t suit him is also very impressive.

 

Costa is not a pure climber so the harder course doesn’t really favour him. However, at this time of the year it is more about form and motivation which he has in abundance. He just has to make it over the big climbs and then he should be strong on the final two ascents. He has won a long, rainy race in Italy once and he can definitely do so again.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have a very strong team for this race with three potential winner in the Yates brother and Esteban Chaves. Their best card is probably Adam Yates whose win in San Sebastian proved that he can beat the best in the biggest one-day races. This race is more of a climber’s race but in the Tour he showed that he can mix it up with the very best on the big climbs too.

 

With his second places in Montreal and Alberta, he proved that he is still in very good condition. The Worlds was a bit of a disappointment but the course for that race made it impossible for him to show himself as it was more about positioning which is not his greatest asset. The big challenge in Lombardy will be the distance as he has never been in the mix in this kind of very long race. However, San Sebastian was 219km long and there is no reason to believe that he can’t handle this kind of length. He is well-suited to the punchy climbs in the end and has a reasonable sprint.

 

While many of the favourites have been riding in Richmond, Thibaut Pinot has stayed in Europe to specifically prepare for this race which is his big goal. By winning the Tour du Gevaudan, he showed that his form is good but we have to admit that we were slightly disappointed by his lack of dominance. He didn’t look too strong in Tre Valli Varesine either but bounced back with a great ride in Milan-Turin where he took fourth.

 

Pinot is a pure climber so if he ever wants to win a big one-day race, this could be his best chance. He will even be favoured by the rainy weather which is what he really likes. Of course the wet descents will make things tricky for the talented Frenchman but he has improved his descending skills a lot. Of course he is not going to beat Valverde in a sprint but he is not that slow. He is obviously very motivated which is extremely important for this race.

 

Last year Tim Wellens took his best monument result by finishing fourth in this race. This year he is clearly much stronger. He was the best in the Eneco Tour and he was impressive when he rode to victory in the GP Montreal. He skipped the Worlds to best prepare for this race.

 

There is no doubt that Wellens is destined for big things in the classics but unfortunately we don’t think that this year’s Lombardia is one for him. The amount of climbing is probably too much for him and it will be hard for him to keep up with the best. Furthermore, he was hugely disappointed as he was dropped in the Worlds TTT. On the other hand, he was also very poor in the Tour and then bounced back with a storming ride in the Eneco Tour. You can never count out Wellens who just seems to get stronger and stronger.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski has had a very bad year and he never really has hit the fantastic condition that made him the revelation of 2014. However, his legs finally seem to have come around. He was strong in Canada and was really impressive in the Worlds road race. Despite riding in the dangerous break in the end, he still had enough left in the tank to sprint to 8th.

 

Kwiatkowski is one of the best riders for the Ardennes classics but Il Lombardia is now a race for climbers. Even though he has shown signs of improvement on the long ascents, he doesn’t belong to that category and we think that this could be a bit too much for him. However, if he can make it over the big climbs, he should be strong on the shorter ascents and he will benefit from his good descending skills and fast sprint.

 

Robert Gesink is obviously a stage racer but he has some decent one-day results too. This year he is finally back to his best after a couple of difficult seasons and this should set him up for a great ride in Lombardy. After a long break from competition, he did well in the Canadian races and he was impressive in Richmond where he sacrificed himself for the team. A few weeks ago, we had expected Wilco Kelderman to be the standout performer for LottoNL-Jumbo but after his poor performance in Milan-Turin, it is now up to Gesink to lead the charge. He should find the heavier course to his liking but as he is not fast in a flat sprint, he needs to arrive solo at the finish.

 

Defending champion Dan Martin would usually be one of the big favourites for this race as he has proved that he is one of the very best in long one-day races. However, he has had a very bad preparation for this race as he crashed out of the Vuelta and only made his return to competition in Milan-Turin. Prior to the race, he claimed to have trained well and a 14th place is no disaster. However, he was never really close to the best and it will be hard for him to be in contention in a hard race like Lombardia. On the other hand, he has all the skills to do well on this course and has a fast sprint. With one race in his legs, he should be better in the big one and he will be extremely motivated to end his time at Cannondale on a high. It won’t be easy but you can never count Martin out in the monuments.

 

On paper, Sky have a very strong team but most of their riders are not in their best condition. However, that cannot be for Wout Poels who rode a very strong Milan-Turin where he finished fifth. In general, the Dutchman is underestimated as his performances in this year’s Tour and Dauphiné prove that he has developed into one of the best climbers in the world. He doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself so he will be motivated to do well and continue the run of success that started at the Tour of Britain. The course should suit him well and he even has a decent sprint.

 

Tony Gallopin may be more of a puncheur than a climber but his ride in the first two weeks of the Tour proved that he can stay with the best on the long climbs too. On paper, this course should be too tough for him but after his rides in France, that may no longer be the case. He is very pleased with his condition and seventh place in Richmond proves that he has reason to be satisfied. With his fast sprint, he can allow himself to ride defensively.

 

Simon Yates and Esteban Chaves are the other two Orica-GreenEDGE cards. Chaves hasn’t raced since the Vuelta so it remains to be seen how he has recovered. However, last year he was very strong after the Spanish race and there is a solid chance that he has come out in very good condition. Yates may not have had the same kind of attention as his brother but don’t forget that he finished in the top 10 in the Dauphiné, Pais Vasco and Romandie to prove that he can match the very best. He didn’t do the Worlds and has prepared specifically for this race. His form is a bit of an unknown but there is a chance that his preparation will have paid off.

 

Finally, Diego Rosa deserves a mention. The Italian rode to a breakthrough win in Milan-Turin and his performances in that race and Tre Valli Varesine show that he is in excellent condition. However, he is likely to be back in a domestique role for this race and will probably have to ride on the front to set Nibali up for an attack. However, his good form could allow him to get more freedom and even though the distance is untested territory for him, he may be capable of another surprise.

 

UPDATE: A knee injury means that Joaquim Rodriguez won't take the start

 

***** Vincenzo Nibali

**** Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde

*** Rafal Majka, Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa, Adam Yates, Thibaut Pinot

** Tim Wellens, Michal Kwiatkowski, Robert Gesink, Dan Martin, Wout Poels, Tony Gallopin, Esteban Chaves, Simon Yates, Diego Rosa

* Davide Rebellin, Warren Barguil, Mikel Landa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Daniel Moreno, Damiano Cunego, Jan Bakelants, Sergio Henao, Ilnur Zakarin, Wilco Kelderman, Tiesj Benoot, Zdenek Stybar, Diego Ulissi, Steven Kruijswijk, Tom Dumoulin, Philippe Gilbert, Alexis Vuillermoz, Romain Bardet, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Rodolfo Torres, Peter Kennaugh, Bart De Clercq, Jerome Coppel, Davide Villella, Moreno Moser, Kenny Elissonde, Samuel Sanchez