While the classics riders will test themselves on the hellingen in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the sprinters will save themselves for one of their only chances to win a prestigious semi-classic. The Belgian opening weekend has a bit for everyone and with Saturday’s race being reserved for the hard men, Sunday’s Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne is often a chance for the fast finishers to shine. Nothing is guaranteed in Kuurne where classics riders have also prevailed but with several teams bringing their sprinting contingent, there is a big chance that it is time for the first very prestigious sprint battle of the year.

 

Despite more than a month of riding under sunny conditions in places like Australia, Argentina, the Middle East, Algarve, Andalusia, and the French Cote d'Azur, many cycling fans have the impression that the racing season do not begin for real until the classics riders have tested themselves on the hellingen in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. While a win in one of the early season races was pleasant and a welcome boost of confidence, it isn’t until Saturday that the hard men have a real pressure to perform in a big race when the Omloop kicks off the Belgian classics season, a very unique part of the international cycling calendar.

 

The situation may be a bit different for the sprinters. For fast finishers, the quantity of wins often play almost as big a role as their quality and many of them have been extremely eager to clock up the first victories in races that for other riders are mere preparation. Nonetheless, the Belgian city of Kuurne is often the place for the first really important battle between the fastest men on two wheels.

 

The Belgian opening weekend is a diverse affair that has a bit for everyone and the combination with the Omloop is a perfect one as the two races appeal to the same riders but still give different riders an opportunity to shine. Even though they both include cobbles and hellingen and several riders have won both, Saturday's opener is one for the true classics specialists and Sunday's race to Kuurne is much more of a sprinters race. Even though many riders do both races, this means that there is a certain difference between the line-ups for the events. Several teams bring in some fast finishers for Sunday's race while many of the classics riders often make a late decision after Saturday's race about whether to continue racing the next day as well.

 

It is no wonder that the teams keep their sprinters ready for the Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. With races like the Omloop, E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix being too hard for them to get a chance to excel, they have very few chances to add a classic to their palmares. The Milan-Sanremo, Dwars door Vlaanderen and Gent-Wevelgem are potential options later in the season but the only real sprinter classics are the Scheldeprijs and tomorrow's race in Kuurne.

 

This makes the Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne a prestigious affair that has been red-circled by most of the fast finishers as one they need to have on their palmares. Hence, it is no wonder that they will mostly stay away from Saturday's race to be 100% ready for Sunday’s battle and many of their lead-out riders have done the same, causing a nice shake-up of the start list.

 

However, nothing is guaranteed in Kuurne. While it is guaranteed that a sprinter won't win one of the hardest Belgian classics and it is almost a certainty that the Scheldeprijs ends in a bunch sprint, things can be different from what is expected in Kuurne. The race is certainly not flat and includes several famous hellingen - even the feared Oude Kwaremont features on the course - and they offer the classics riders a chance to make a difference. That opportunity is usually taken but as the race ends with a long flat stretch, the sprint teams have plenty of time to bring things back together. If the weather conditions are brutal, however, history shows that the classics riders have a genuine chance of prevailing in Kuurne. Most recently that was the case last year and in 2010 when Bobbie Traksel won a memorable race in horrendous weather conditions where only 26 riders reached the finish.

 

Much of the race's prestige stems from its long history. Held first in 1945, the race has only been cancelled three times, always due to bad weather at the early time of the season. As it is the case for many historic races - with Milan-Sanremo being the notable exception - the name is slightly misleading as the riders no longer reach Brussels before they turn around and head back to the finish in Kuurne. Instead, the turning point in located near Ninove, some 25km west of the Belgian capital. Unsurprisingly, the winners list is dominated by Belgians and most of the greatest classics stars from the home country have taken the win in Kuurne at least once. The first rider from outside Belgium and the Netherlands to win the race was German Gregor Brain in 1982 but in recent years a lot more international riders have been able to prevail in Kuurne.

 

Last year’s race was one of the rare exceptions where the sprinters were foiled. Omega Pharma-Quick Step ripped the race to pieces on the Oude Kwaremont and they had most of their teams in the select front group that was formed. Belkin also had a few guys up there and those two teams combined forces to keep the peloton that was led by Lotto Belisol, at bay. In the end, it came down to a sprint from the 10-rider group and here Tom Boonen managed to beat Moreno Hofland and Sep Vanmarcke. While Hofland has made Kuurne a big goal and will skip Omloop to be ready, Boonen will only make a decision on Ssaturday evening whether to defend his title or not. Meanwhile, Vanmarcke is very likely to do the race as he lines up as the LottoNL-Jumbo option in case of a hard race of attrition.

 

The course

The Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne is a traditional Flemish classics in the sense that it is held in the same small area in the Flemish Ardennes where most of the big Belgian one-day races take place but it is of a completely different nature than races like the Tour of Flanders, E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, Dwars door Vlaanderen, and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Those races all head from its start along flat roads to the Flemish Ardennes where they zigzag their way through the hilly area, taking in the same roads numerous times and going up many of the famous hellingen in the area before heading back to the finishing city.

 

As the name of the race reveals, the course for tomorrow's race has a more fixed character as it heads from the start in Kuurne in an easterly direction before turning around and heading back to the starting city. The course briefly touches the Flemish Ardennes on the way out and passes straight through the classics heartland on the way back but it is more of a direct journey between Kuurne and the turning point instead of a twisting zigzag trip in the hilly zone. The course is not designed with the purpose of being as difficult as possible and the straight passing of the hills means that the number of hellingen is far smaller. If one adds the fact that the extra kilometres are not found in the hilly zone but by doing two laps of a 16km flat circuit in Kuurne, one has the recipe for a race that is more suited to the sprinters.

 

The organizers usually change the route slightly from year to year but the main features always remain the same. This year again sees a few minor adjustments as the overall distance drops from 197km to 195km but the largely unchanged finale means that the race won’t be much different. As usual, the riders will do 9 hellingen but things have been changed a bit as the Hotondberg has been included while the Tiegemberg will be skipped. This means that there will be one less climb after the passage of the key point at the Oude Kwaremont which may make the race slightly less selective. On the other hand, the really hard part of the race has now become more difficult.

 

From the start in Kuurne, the riders travel in a predominantly easterly direction as they head towards the Belgian capital of Brussels. They pass through classical classics cities like Anzegem, Oudenaarde, and Brakel but instead of heading into the heart of the Flemish Ardennes, they follow a route north of the hills, meaning that the Edelare (1500m, 4.2%, max. 7%) is the only climb in the first half of the race, coming at the 37km mark. Otherwise, the first half is completely flat and unless it is a very windy day, this portion only serves the purpose of accumulating fatigue and allowing the early break to take off.

 

After 61km, the riders reach the city of Voorde on the outskirts of Ninove and this is where they turn around and start their journey back towards Kuurne. The riders never reach the city of Brussels but turn around 20km before reaching the Belgian capital. Before heading back in a westerly direction, however, they travel south for a few kilometres, meaning that they will pass through the Flemish Ardennes on the way back.

 

The riders pass through the city of Geraardsbergen shortly after turning around but won't climb the famed Muur. Instead, the hilly zone starts a few kilometres further up the road when La Houppe (1880m, 4.8%, max. 10%) kicks off the day's action after 90km of racing. During the next 60km, the final 8 of the 9 hellingen are all located and this is where the selection has to be made.

 

Next up is one of the steeper climbs, the Kanarieberg (1000m, 7.7%, max. 14%) which comes at the 98km mark and 5km further up the road, it is time for the Kruisberg (1875m, 4%, max. 9%), with the new Hotondberg (2.7km, 3.1%, 7.5%) coming another 6km later. The Cote de Trieu (1260m, 7%, max. 13%). is next up as it is located another 5km further down the road. At this point, the climbs come in quick succession and it is usually typical, nervous Belgian racing where positioning is key to success and where everyone wants to stay near the front. This automatically causes an increased pace and some nervous racing and we could see some attacks being launched.

 

The place to make the selection, however, is the famous Oude Kwaremont (2200, 4%, max. 11.6%) which is a long, hard one and one of the toughest in the area. It comes after 120km of racing with 75km to go and this is usually where the classics riders test their legs. At the top, a select front group has usually been created and now it is time for the escapees to start working together.

 

It is usually a difficult task as several teams have dedicated sprint teams and while some may have sent riders up the road, some teams are likely to organize a chase behind. Last year the riders climbed the Tiegemberg 9km after the Kwaremont but this year things have changed. The next climb is the Holstraat (1000m, 5.2%, max. 12%) which comes after 137km of racing. Then it is another 7km before the riders do the final helling, the Nokereberg (350m, 5.7%, max. 7%) which is a rather easy affair but from its top, 51km still remain. Those final two climbs may provide some final launch pads for attacks and cause some troubles for the sprint teams but they have no reason to panic as they have plenty of time to reel in the break after the top.

 

From there, the riders pass through well-known Flemish cities like Waregem, Desselgem and Harelbeke before reaching the finish in Kuurne. If the race had finished there, the attackers would have had a much better chance as there are only 19km from the Nokereberg to the first passage of the line but the sprint teams get an extra chance to bring things back together.

 

The race ends with two laps of an entirely flat, 16km finishing circuit that brings the riders from Kuurne to Kortrijk and back to Kuurne. Apart from a few corners in Kortrijk and Kuurne, the circuit is rather non-technical and it is a perfect place for the bunch to organize a dedicated chase. Hence, the final part of the race usually develops into more of a traditional grand tour sprint stage, with the peloton chasing down the early or late attackers to set up a bunch sprint. The final 4km are pretty easu, with the riders passing straight through a roundabout and turning left in another between the 4 and 3km to go marks. From there it is a straight road until the final sharp left-hand turn 600m from the line that leads onto the finishing straight where some dramatic sprint battles have taken place in the past.

 

What may change the outcome of the race is the weather as windy and cold conditions can make the race much harder and selective. If the conditions are right, it can be a true race of attrition and elimination race through the hilly and windy zones but otherwise it rarely happens that the sprinters miss the chance to sprint for the win in Kuurne.

 

 

The weather

Last year the riders faced one of the rare occasions when the weather conditions were harsh enough to make the race a selective affair. Despite riding on dry roads and in relatively warm conditions, the combination of a strong wind and a powerful acceleration from the Omega Pharma-Quick Step was enough to wreak havoc on the peloton and produce one of the most exciting editions of the race. The weather conditions are usually the single most important factor in the race and while the sprinters hope for sunshine and no wind, the classics riders hope for typical Belgian classics weather.

 

While the weather conditions seem to be pleasant for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, it seems that the riders may go into a much tougher scenario one day later. Rain will fall in the night and it will probably still be raining by the time, the riders leave Kuurne. As the race goes on, however, the sun will probably come out and the riders should finish the race in nice conditions.

 

Another key factor is the wind and it will make the race a tough one. There will be a pretty strong wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part and a headwind when they head back towards Kuurne. However, there will mainly be a crosswind from just before the Cote de Trieu and until the riders hit the Nokereberg. Then they will turn back into a headwind for the final stretch back to Kuurne. On the finishing circuit, there will mainly be a crosswind but as it mostly takes place in urban areas, it is unlikely to play a role. In the sprint, the riders will have a headwind until they turn into a crosswind for the 600m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

At the moment, the start list for the race is not known and as many riders make a late decision Saturday evening about whether to do the race or not, it may happen that some of the favourites won’t be at the start line. However, most of the sprinters have decided to skip Omloop Het Nieuwsblad to be fresh for this race and this means that most of the fast guys are guaranteed to be there.

 

What makes Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne difficult to predict is the fact that it is open to two very different scenarios. Will it be possible for the strong teams to split the race in the hilly zone and will they be committed to keep it going all the way to the finish? Or will it be possible for the sprinters to control affairs and set up the usual bunch sprint?

 

This year the strong wind offers the potential to do some real damage. The race offers one place to really make a difference, with the Oude Kwaremont being the key point in the race. This year there will be a strong crosswind from just before the Cote de Trieu until the riders hit the Nokereberg and this means that the conditions are there to try to do some damage. On the other hand, there will be a headwind in the final section back to Kuurne and this will make it harder for a small group to stay away.

 

Most teams have lined up dedicated sprint teams and they will be keen to have a calm race that ends with a bunch sprint which is often enough to make it happen. Etixx-QuickStep go into the race with Mark Cavendish on their roster and so they may be less keen to split the field than they were last year. On the other hand, an attacking strategy is very often the best way of defence in this kind of race and it would be no surprise to see the Belgian team try to get rid of Cavendish's rivals by going fast up the Kwaremont.

 

With a strong crosswind, there is little doubt that a selection will be made and much will depend on which riders have made it into the front group. If there are too many sprinters, it will probably come back together but if it’s a small move like last year’s, it may stay away. However, they will have to tackle the strong headwind after the Nokereberg and this is definitely in favour of the sprinters.

 

Due to the strong wind, it is very hard to predict whether it will come down to bunch sprint and both scenarios are definitely realistic. However, a few riders are capable of winning both types of races and they stand out as the favourites.

 

Mark Cavendish is a former winner of this race and he returns to Belgium with the intention of continuing his successful start to the season. The Brit has been unstoppable since his poor start in San Luis and lines up at the race with lots of confidence.

 

With no Kittel in the race, Cavendish should be the fastest rider in the race and he will obviously be the man to beat in case of a bunch sprint. He may not have his entire lead-out train at his disposal but the team is extremely powerful and did really well in the Tour of Oman when they tried to lead Tom Boonen out. They should be able to bring their fast Brit into a reasonable position and as Cavendish is also very skillful at positioning himself, he may not suffer too much from the fact that his usual lead-out men are not there.

 

If the race turns out to be selective, Cavendish is usually not one of the strongest riders. However, he is part of the strongest team and that is extremely important in this kind of race. If Etixx-QuickStep take the initiative in the hilly zone, Cavendish may actually be the sprinter who benefits. Of coruse he still has to make it over the Kwaremont with the best but he seems to be climbing really well at the moment - just remember how well he did in Dubai - and he has to be pretty strong as he is building for Milan-Sanremo. Furthermore, he is often pretty strong even when the sprint comes at the end of a selective race and this makes him our favourite to win the race.

 

While many classics riders have had a low-key start to their season, things are different for Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian has been unstoppable all year, winning three stages in the Tour of Qatar before adding another win at the Tour of Oman, and he is clearly the in-form rider at the moment.

 

Kristoff still hasn’t won a cobbled classic but he has come close on a number of occasions, most notably in last year’s Tour of Flanders where he was arguably the strongest rider in the finale. Since then he has only become a lot stronger. However, he was unpleasantly surprised by his climbing form in the Tour of Oman and this means that he may have a hard time to keep up with the very best on the Kwaremont. He won’t be far off though and if a small group should have any chance, it can’t be too small, meaning that Kristoff is likely to be there. The key point is to be well-placed at the bottom of the climb and as he is excellent in the fight for position, he is unlikely to miss the move. In a sprint from a small group, it would be a bad idea to bet against the in-form Norwegian.

 

However, Kristoff can win from all scenarios. Even if it comes down to a bunch sprint, he will be the favourite. In the past, he has had a hard time going up against the fastest riders in the pure bunch sprints but this year he seems to have overcome that weakness. He is excellent at positioning himself and he has a much stronger lead-out train in 2015. Finally, the windy conditions will make the race a hard one and this only benefits Kristoff who is best on the really tough days.

 

While Kristoff will also be racing on Saturday, André Greipel will save all his energy for Sunday’s race which is the first big goal of the year. For the first time in several years, the German has had a slower start to the season as he aims to be much fresher for the most important events later in the year. This means that he only lines up in Kuurne with a single win on his account and this may lead some to suggest that he is not firing on all cylinders.

 

However, it would be a very bad idea to underestimate Greipel’s form. In fact, he seems to be in excellent condition as he climbed very well in the Volta ao Algarve, finishing close to the best in the hard stage 2. He may have missed out on the win in stage 1 but that was more a result of poor positioning than due to a lack of form. He showed off his condition on the final day when he took the first win of the season.

 

Greipel is a solid rider for the cobbled classics and there is a chance that his good form will allow him to stay with the best on the Kwaremont. In any case, he won’t be too far off and he has a strong team to bring it back together for a bunch sprint. Furthermore, he shouldn’t be left too fatigued as he seems to be ready to handle what could be a hard race.

 

On paper, Greipel is the fastest rider in the bunch and he has the entire Lotto Soudal lead-out train at his disposal. This means that he is likely to start his sprint from the perfect position and if the train can time things right, Greipel will be very hard to beat.

 

Sky have not had an awful lot of classics success but for some reason they have always excelled in the opening weekend. In fact, they have already won this race twice and this year they again go into the race with an obvious winner candidate.

 

With a stage win in the Dubai Tour, Elia Viviani has had an excellent start to his 2015 season and after a short break from road racing to focus on the track, he lines up at this race as the Sky leader. The Italian has never done too well in the cobbled classics but with his solid climbing skill he has the potential to shine in this kind of race. Due to his lack of experience, he probably needs a bunch sprint to win but in that case he will be a danger man.

 

This year Sky are placing more emphasis on the sprints and they have had a very well-drilled lead-out train in their first races. This time Ben Swift is not there but Viviani can still rely on a very strong team that seems to be able to go up against the formidable Lotto Soudal train. In Dubai, Viviani proved that he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish and then a win over Greipel is certainly also within reach.

 

Last year Nacer Bouhanni seemed to have the speed to go up against the very fastest riders but for some reason he has had a very poor start to his time at Cofidis. The Frenchman was far off the pace in most of the Qatar sprints but in Oman, he got closer to the win. His lead-out train worked very poorly in the first few races but now they seem to have found their automatisms and Bouhanni has been able to start his recent sprints from decent positions. Furthermore, he climbed really well in Oman and seems to be in very good condition. As Cofidis is not one of the strongest teams, he is unlikely to make the selection on the Kwaremont but if it comes down to a bunch sprint, he is an obvious favourite.

 

One of the best sprinters in 2015 has been Matteo Pelucchi who got the year off to a storming start with two wins in Mallorca. He got close on a number of occasions in Oman too and in fact he seemed to be the fastest rider in that race. However, he lost out to pure positioning and had to settle for two third places.

 

Having overcome his many injuries, Pelucchi is finally able to benefit from his incredible speed and he has also become a lot stronger on the climbs. However, he remains a pure sprinter and for him to have a chance, the race can’t be too hard. This means that a selective edition of Kuurne isn’t the perfect race for him but if it comes down to a bunch sprint, his speed will make him a potential winner. He doesn’t have the strongest lead-out but if he can start his sprint from a decent position, he will be a contender.

 

By winning the final stage of the Tour of Qatar, Sam Bennett proved that he has the speed to beat all the top sprinters and he will be very keen to add a first classic to his palmares. In the past, he was a pretty strong climber but for some reason, he has turned more into a pure sprinter and he suffered a lot in Oman. This means that he will probably be off the pace if the race turns out to be selective. If it comes down to a bunch sprint, he will definitely have a shot.

 

Bryan Coquard is still knocking on the door for his first big win. At one point, he seemed to have the speed to mix it up with the very best but that no longer seems to be the case. Furthermore, he has suffered a lot in the fight for position and this means that he has lost out way too often. However, he seemed to improve that aspect in last year’s Tour de France and he arrives at this race with lots of confidence after his strong showing at the Track Worlds. He remains one of the fastest riders in the bunch and if he can get himself into a decent position, he has a shot at the win.

 

Last year Tom Boonen took his third win in this event but while his first two victories were taken in bunch sprints, last year’s triumph was different. Even though he is still a solid sprinter, he now has a hard time in the pure bunch sprints and he no longer has the speed of the fastest guys. This year he goes into the race as a doemstique as Mark Cavendish will be the leader.

 

With the windy conditions, however, things may be ripped apart and this means that the Brit could be left behind. Boonen will definitely make the selection and if Cavendish doesn't get back, he will take over the leadership role. Boonen is usually very strong in a sprint at the end of a hard race but his main challenge is the fact that Alexander Kristoff is even better. As the Norwegian is also likely to make the selection, Boonen will have a hard time winning a sprint, even from a reduced group.

 

Last year, however, he proved that he has the speed to beat Greipel when he gets into the perfect position, taking two wins over the German in the Tour of Belgium. If this race turns out to be one of attrition, Boonen may get a very important classics win before he goes into his main objectives.

 

One sprinter who has traditionally done really well in the big sprint classics is Yauheni Hutarovich. The Belarusian is perfectly suited to this kind of big sprints and he has finished on the podium in both Kuurne and Scheldeprijs. However, he has had a few difficult years and no longer has the speed he once had. Having joined Bretagne, however, he seems to be getting some of his confidence back and he arrives at this race with three stage wins from the Tropicale Amissa Bongo on his palmares. That race may not have been the most difficult but it means that he goes into this race with a lot of belief in his own chances and as he has also become better in hard races, he could be up there.

 

Tyler Farrar is no longer the sprinter he once was but last year he showed signs of improvement. Furthermore, he rode better than ever on the classics and put in some notable performances on the hellingen. If this race turns out to be pretty hard, he should not be too far off the mark and it may take the sting out of the legs of the fastest riders. Furthermore, he can count on support from the improved MTN-Qhubeka lead-out train. Until now, it hasn’t really worked for the African team but if they can finally put things together, they have the firepower to deliver Farrar in a good position.

 

If the race turns into a hard one, it is hard to look beyond Boonen and Kristoff as the big favourites. If a small group gets clear, however, Etixx-QuickStep will have to use a lot of energy to keep it going. This means that they may be vulnerable for late attacks and this could open the door for some of the strong classics riders. Last year Sep Vanmarcke was part of the group that sprinted for the win but back then he was unable to escape in the finale. The strong Belgian will definitely make the selection on the Kwaremont and if he can get clear late in the race, he has the power to finish it off.

 

Another in-form classics rider is Greg Van Avermaet. Being one of the best riders for the cobbled classics, he should be able to make the selection on the Kwaremont. In fact, BMC’s best chance in this race is to make it a hard one and they could have a few riders in the small group that may emerge in the end. In that case, they will try to attack Etixx-QuickStep and Van Avermaet is the rider with the legs to finish it off.

 

UPDATE: André Greipel is suffering from a throat infection and won't be at the start

 

***** Mark Cavendish

**** Alexander Kristoff, André Greipel

*** , Elia Viviani, Nacer Bouhanni, Matteo Pelucchi

** Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Tom Boonen, Yauheni Hutarovich, Tyler Farrar, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet

* Roy Jans, Moreno Hofland, Tom Van Asbroeck, Raymond Kreder, Manuel Belletti, Jempy Drucker, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Philippe Gilbert, Matteo Trentin, Edward Theuns, Jakub Mareczko, Nicolas Marini, Marc Sarreau, Aidis Kruopis, Jonas Vangenechten