Spring has finally arrived and nothing is more indicative of the brighter times to come than the kick-off of the first major stage race, Paris-Nice. The symbolism is evident when the riders literally travel from the cold, windy, and wintry conditions in Northern France to the bright sunshine at the French Cote d'Azur while the terrain changes from a flat sprinters paradise to a hilly, undulating affair. After a strange 2014 edition that suired the classics riders, the race is back to a more traditional format and shapes up to be the scene of a great battle between some of the most promising stage race riders in the world.

 

Most professional bike riders already have plenty of racing miles in their legs, making good use of the warm and sunny conditions in places like Australia, Argentina, the Middle East, Algarve, Andalusia, and the French Cote d'Azur to clock up the kilometres. While an early win is always appreciated and a welcome boost of confidence, however, it has until now been all about warm-up and preparation for the bigger races to come.

 

That all changed last weekend when the professional cycling calendar entered its next phase with the traditional Belgian opening weekend. While cycling fans all over the world have appreciated the globalized cycling and the many high-level early season events, there is still a feeling that the season hasn't started for real until the best classics riders have tested themselves on the Belgian cobbles for the first time.

 

The Omloop Het Nieuwsblad kicked off the race calendar of historic races on European soil. From now on, the races are no longer mere training in a laid-back atmosphere, now it is time to clock up the results. For the classics riders, things got serious last Saturday but for the stage race riders, the first real test has traditionally come with the double-header of big, historic stage races: Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Even though Paris-Nice is not the Tour de France and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is not the Tour of Flanders, the serious racing now begins in earnest.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico both play a strange, dual role on the calendar. On one hand, they are the first big objectives for the greatest stage racers who hope to land their first big wins in one of the most prestigious races on the calendar. At the same time, they are a crucial part of the preparation for the classics riders who benefit immensely from one week of WorldTour racing in tough conditions and versatile terrain. It may be difficult to decide whether to head to France or Italy but one of the races forms an indispensable part of every successful classics schedule - just ask Team Sky whose classics riders made the ill-fated experiment of skipping the historic stage races in 2013.

 

It is no wonder that Paris-Nice is a key event on the European calendar. With its inaugural edition taking place in 1933, it has a deep history and its position on the calendar is both symbolic and well-chosen. Originally put on as a training race right after the track season, the race disappeared during World War II and an ill-fated attempt to revive it in 1946 was quickly shut down.

 

The race was back on the calendar in 1951, with the Paris-Nice name being restored in 1954, and it was during the 50s that the race gained its status, growing from a preparation event to a big race in its own right. The fantastic 1966 battle between Jacques Anquetil and Raymond Poulidor divided France and from then, the race was definitively part of cycling's most prestigious events. Right from the beginning, it has been an international affair and many of the big riders have added the event to their palmares, with Eddy Merckx winning it three times in a row from 1969 to 1971, Anquetil taking five wins, and Miguel Indurain two. The dominant figure has, however, been Sean Kelly who won the race an impressive 7 times in a row from 1982 to 1988 until Indurain broke the streak.

 

What makes the race so special is its symbolic nature. Known as the Race to the Sun, nothing signals the arrival of spring better than the French race which starts in Northern France where the riders are often bundled up as they try to battle the cold and windy conditions. This part of the race has traditionally suited the sprinters and the classics riders, with the crosswinds often playing a crucial role on at least one stage.

 

As the riders travel south and get closer to Nice, the weather improves and they typically end the race in sunny conditions at the Cote d'Azur. At the same time, the terrain changes and it is now time for the climbers to come to the fore to decide the overall standings in the prestigious race.

 

That dual nature means that the race has a bit for everyone. The race has often kicked off with a prologue and has often ended with the now famous time trial up the Col d'Eze on the outskirts of Nice, meaning that there has also been something for the time trialists to target. Due to its early dates, the race never reaches the high mountains and always completely skips the Alps and so it has rarely been a race for the real climbing specialists. Instead, it is won by a versatile rider who masters everything, and it is clearly reflected by the winners list.

 

Traditionally, the race has been the place to be for the great stage race riders who have been attracted by the versatility of the course that has made it some kind of a mini Tour de France. In recent years, however, this has slightly changed. For several years, the amount of time trialing was limited to an opening prologue, with the 2011 edition and the recent return to the Col d'Eze time trial being the major exceptions, and several editions have not had any major summit finishes.

 

Last year, however, the organizers ASO – who have been in charge of the race since 2002 – made a brave choice by completely changing the nature of the race. With no time trials and no major summit finishes, the course was made up of 8 small classics and this caused a major reshuffle in the line-up. Having learnt about the new course, most big stage race riders changed their mind and decided to forgo the French race in favour of Tirreno-Adriatico while the classics specialists were attracted by the new layout.

 

That development is an interesting one as the Tirreno-Adriatico has gone in the opposite direction. Traditionally, the two WorldTour races have been involved in a fierce battle for the best line-ups and for several years they seemed to divide the spoils. As the Italian race has often consisted of a mixture of flat and punchy stages and has often been won by classics riders, the one-day specialists headed to Italy while the stage race riders travelled to France. With Tirreno organizers RCS having changed the formula of their race to include more time trialing and bigger mountains, however, it is now the Italian race that seems to be the mini grand tour while Paris-Nice is much more suited to the punchier guys.

 

However, the move didn’t really pay off for ASO who could see all the major stars travel to Italy while their race didn’t attract its usual attention. In an attempt to regain its position, ASO have now returned to a more traditional format. The Col d’Eze time trial and the prologue are back and the race even includes a big summit finish. This year’s edition is one of the most selective in recent years and is definitely one for the stage race riders.

 

However, the race has again lost the battle against Tirreno who will be able to feature the likes of Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali (depending on the Astana situation) in their race. The uncertainty over the course made the big stage racers decide against the French race but after having learnt about the routes, Contador has slightly regretted his choice, claiming Paris-Nice to be harder than the Italian event. However, the race can still boast a formidable line-up and while Tirreno-Adriatico may be the big test for the grand tour giants, Paris-Nice has attracted most of the future stars of stage racing as Rafal Majka, Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, Tejay van Garderen, Romain Bardet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Tim Wellens, Eduardo Sepulveda, Ion Izagirre, Ruben Fernandez Warren Barguil Wilco Kelderman join forces with established names like Richie Porte, Simon Spilak and Rui Costa to form a strong line-up.

 

Both races have also battled for the honour of being the best preparation for Milan-Sanremo. Opinions have been divided as the French race has allowed a bit more rest before the Italian classic while the Italian one has often had longer stages and better weather conditions. In recent years, the Sanremo winner has often been doing the Tirreno - Simon Gerrans, Matthew Goss and Alexander Kristoff are the major exceptions - but with more classics riders now going to France, it may chance in the future.

 

Last year the punchy course was tailor-made for Carlos Betancur who continued an impressive start to his season by winning the first WorldTour stage race of his career. After the first sprint stages, Geraint Thomas took control of the race after the first hilly stage but one day later the Colombian showed his intentions when he made a late attack to win stage 5. The next day he distanced Thomas to win the queen stage and take the lead and as he never looked to be in trouble in the final two hilly stages, he won the race ahead of Rui Costa and Arthur Vichot. Betancur won’t defend his title as he will make a late return to Europe from Colombia but Costa will be back, trying to go one better. Vichot will also return to the race but on the new course, he is not expected to be an overall contender.

 

The course

As said, organizers ASO have returned to a more traditional format and this year’s edition actually seems to be more suited to stage race riders than it has been for several years. With the inclusion of a summit finish, a prologue, sprint stages and a mountain time trial on the Col d’Eze, it is like a mini grand tour and we should see a completely different kind of rider come to the fore compared to last year’s race.

 

The race keeps its traditional format in the sense that it heads from the north of France near Paris to the traditional finish in Nice. After a one year absence, the race will again end with the legendary Col d’Eze time trial, the traditional marquee stage, with the penultimate stage finishing on the famous Promenade d'Anglais along the Nice coast.

 

After the opening prologue, the sprinters will have three opportunities but the GC riders have to stay attentive as the crosswinds have often wreaked havoc on the peloton. On day 5, it is time for the GC riders to come to the fore when the race hits the mountains and an unusually tough summit finish. A lumpy stage is followed by another hilly day as the riders tackle a very classic Paris-Nice stage in the Nice hills before descending to the Promenade d’Anglais. Finally, the GC will be shaped on the slopes of the Col d’Eze where a worthy winner of the race will be crowned.

 

Prologue:

Paris-Nice has usually kicked off with a flat prologue in one of the Parisian suburbs but last year’s novel course saw the riders tackle a road stage on the opening day. After a one-year absence, the time trial is back as the race kicks off with a 6.7km test against the clock in the Parisian suburb of Maurepas.

 

The course is completely flat and is well-suited to the specialists as there are no major technical challenges. After the start, the riders in a northwesterly direction out of the city before they make a right-hand turn to return back towards the city centre. The only technical part comes just after the 3km to go mark where there are a few turns but then the riders get onto a long, straight 1800m road to the finish where the big engines can really use their power.

 

Sometimes sprinters do well in prologues as they can use their acceleration skills to get back up to speed after the corners. However, this course is one for the really powerful riders and we should see the big specialists come to the fore. Of course the stage is a short one which suits a certain type of riders but we can expect one of the best time triallists to take the first leader’s jersey in the 2015 Paris-Nice.

 

 

 

Stage 1:

The first half of Paris-Nice is usually for the sprinters and the 2015 edition will be no exception. Already on the second day, the riders will start their journey towards the sun as they head over 196.5km from Saint-Remy-les-Chevreuse to Contres. This part of France is completely flat and there won’t be any major topographical challenges on the long run towards the south.

 

The riders will get the stage off to a tough start as they will head straight up the category 3 Cote de Bel Air. The summit comes after just 3km of racing and the KOM sprint will determine the first holder of the mountains jersey, meaning that it will be a very fast start to the stage.

 

After the opening battle, however, the riders reach the flat roads and from there the rest of the stage is a long, flat run to the finish Contres. Here the riders will tackle a completely flat finale that should be the scene for a big bunch sprint.

 

On a calm day, this stage will be a traditional sprint stage where an early break will be kept under control before the sprinters battle it out. However, the first stages of Paris-Nice have often been the most exciting ones as they can turn into a brutal battle in the crosswinds. If the win comes from the right direction, the GC riders have to be on their toes and some of them may lose all their hopes of winning the race already in the first road stage.

 

A stage last finished in Contres in 2010 when Greg Henderson beat Grega Bole in a bunch sprint one day after the opening prologue.

 

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters will be keen to make the most of their opportunities in the first part of the race which is again tailor-made for them. After the opening road stage, the second day should again be one for the fast finishers as the riders continue their journey through the flatlands to get closer to the sun.

 

The 172km stage brings them from Zooparc de Beauval Saint-Aignan to Saint-Armand-Montrond and unlike yesterday, the riders will mainly travel in a southeasterly direction. That won’t change the terrain though as there are no major climbs on the long run towards the finishing city.

 

The riders will already cross the finish line for the first time after 127km of racing to contest the final intermediate sprint and then they will take on a 45km finishing circuit on the eastern outskirts of the city. Right from the start, they will go up the category 3 Cote de la Tour which is no major challenge. From there the final part of the circuit is completely flat and leads to a straightforward finish in Saint-Armand-Montrond. The road is slightly descending from between the 5km and 3km to go marks but the final 3km are almost completely flat.

 

Like the opening road stage, this stage has two possible scenarios. It could either be another straightforward day for the sprinters but if the conditions are right, the wind could turn it into a nightmare for the climbers. Saint-Armand-Montrond grew to fame at the 2013 Tour de France when Belkin, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and later Saxo-Tinkoff destroyed Alejandro Valverde’s GC campaign on a memorable stage that finished in the city and on a windy day in France, it could again provide some exciting racing.

 

A Paris-Nice stage last finished in Saint-Armand-Montrond in 2006 when Tom Boonen beat Allan Davis and Francisco Ventoso in a bunch sprint and four years earlier, it was Alessandro Petacchi who beat Jaan Kirsipuu and Robbie McEwen. In addition to the memorable Tour stage won by Mark Cavendish, Fabian Cancellara won a time trial here in 2008 when Carlos Sastre sealed his overall victory in La Grande Boucle.

 

 

 

 

Stage 3:

The riders are getting closer to the Cote d’Azur and this means that the terrain gradually gets hillier. They will get a chance to slightly warm up their climbing legs in stage 3 which has a more rugged profile than the first two stages. However, the terrain is still mainly flat and the sprinters are again likely to shine before they disappear into anonymity.

 

The 179km stage brings the riders from Saint-Armand-Montrond to Saint-Pourcain-Sur-Sioule. The first part is just a continuation of the southeasterly journey from the previous day and the terrain will be similarly flat too. Gradually, however, they turn more into a southerly direction as they reach the category 3 Cote de la Croix du Chene. From there, they continue along mainly flat roads until they hit the longest climb yet, the category 3 Col de la Bosse.

 

After the long descent, the riders turn around to head back up north towards the finishing city. First they go up the small category 3 Cote de Vicq before they continue along flat roads to enter the 19.5km finishing circuit after 146.5km of racing. They will do almost a full lap of the circuit before they cross the line for the first time at the 159.5km mark where they will contest the final intermediate sprint.

 

The final part of the stage is made up of a lap of the circuit which is an almost completely flat affair. Finally, the riders will return to Saint-Pourcain-Sur-Sioule where they will tackle a flat finale. However, the final 500m may create a different kind of sprint as they have an average gradient of around 3%.

 

The terrain may be slightly hillier but the challenges all come at the midpoint of the stage. It should do nothing to test the sprinters and will mostly serve to heat up the battle for the polka-dot jersey. With this stage being the final opportunity for the pure sprinters, it is likely to come down to a bunch sprint but the uphill finish may suit the stronger sprinters a bit more. Again the riders have to be attentive and even though this part of France may be a little less windy compared to the opening two stages, the GC riders risk losing time if they face a strong crosswind.

 

 

 

 

Stage 4:

For the GC riders, the first three road stages have been all about getting safely through the potential carnage. They have all wanted to get to the mountains as quickly as possible and after four days of racing, they will finally get their chance to shine in the queen stage of the race. Paris-Nice has rarely had any major summit finishes as the early date makes it risky business but this year a big climbing day will play a very important role in determining the winner of the race.

 

The 204km stage brings the riders from Varennes-sur-Allier to the top of the Croix de Chaubouret at 1201m above sea level. The climb is located just outside Saint-Etienne which is in a pretty hilly part of France and the flat part of this race is now over.  From the start, the riders head in a southeasterly direction and it gradually gets hillier as the day goes on.

 

After a flat first part, the climbing starts with the category 3 Cote de Cheval Rigon (5.9km, 3.7%). A very short descent leads straight onto the category 3 Col du Beau Louis (6.1km, 3.5%). A few moments later, the riders will contest the first intermediate sprint and that signals the end of the first climbing block as the riders head onto flat or slightly descending roads in the middle part of the stage.

 

The finale starts after 137.7km of racing when the riders turn east to zigzag their way through the hilly area around Saint-Etienne. First they go up the category 3 Cote-de-Saint-Bonne-les-Oules (2.8km, 3.7%) which leads directly onto the lower slopes of the Cote de Saint-Heand (1km, 5.1%). Then a short descent leads to the first category 2 climb of the race, Cote de la Gimond (1.8km, 6.5%).

 

From there, 45km still remain. First the first longer descent of the race brings the riders to the category 3 Col de la Gachet (5km, 4.4%) which is followed by the short category 3 Cote de la Croix Blanche (1.8km, 4.9%). A long descent now leads to the city of Saint-Chamond where the final intermediate sprint will signal the start of the brutal finale.

 

The Croix de Chabouret is a 10km category 1 climb which has an average gradient of 6.7% and it is a very regular affair. The first 5km mainly have a gradient between 6 and 7% and then the climb gets steeper. The final 5km vary between 7.1% and 7.8% with only the penultimate kilometre offering a little room for recovery with its 6% gradient. The final kilometre is one of the hardest as it kicks up with a gradient of 7.4%.

 

The day is loaded with smaller climbs but none of them are very challenging and it will probably be a pretty large field that arrives at the bottom of the final climb. A few teams may try to make it hard but the climbers should all be ready to battle it out on the final climb. With the GC still being close, the early break will have no chance and this is a day destined to be won by a GC rider. For the climbers, this is the only chance to make a difference and they need to make the most out of the opportunity. The final climb is not overly hard and the time differences won’t be massive but it should be enough for the best climbers to do some damage. On this kind of climb, however, the wind can play a massive role and if it’s a headwind, the selection may not be too big and it could turn into a waiting game.

 

The climb has never been used for a Paris-Nice stage before and so it will be unknown territory for most of the riders.

 

 

 

 

Stage 5:

The sprinters are likely to have had a tough day on stage 4 but they will be pleased to get back into flatter terrain on stage 5. However, only the strongest of them may have their say in a stage whose short climb to the finish makes it a perfect opportunity for the puncheurs.

 

 The 192km route brings the riders from the hills in Saint-Etienne to a finish in Rasteau and the start couldn’t be more brutal. The first 12.5km are up the category 1 Col de la Republique and this is likely to put the sprinters into difficulty right from the beginning of the stage.

 

However, they will be pleased to learn that the descent leads to along southerly journey towards Rastaeu in a part of France that is mainly flat. However, the flat roads will give way for a hillier finale as there are a few ascents to negotiate in the otherwise mainly flat second half of the race.

 

The first chance to test the sprinters comes after 125km of racing when the riders reach the summit of the category 3 Col du Deves. Then it’s back onto flat roads before it is time for the category 2 Cote de l’Ayrac. From its top, 44.5km still remain and they are mainly flat. However, there is a nasty sting in the tail as the category 3 Cote de Buisson comes just 8.5km from the finish.

 

The real challenge, however, is the tricky finale. After a slightly descending run-in to Rasteau, the sprinters will be unpleasantly surprised to learn that the final 500m are on a small climb with a gradient of around 8%, making it a finish more for puncheurs than pure sprinters.

 

The GC has now been established and so there will be more room from breakaways and with the tough start, a very strong group could escape right from the beginning. It may require a big effort to bring them back and it all depends on how strong the likes of Philippe Gilbert are feeling at the moment. They may try to chase it down to set up a sprint for the puncheurs but otherwise this could be a day for a break to shine.

 

Rasteau last hosted a stage finish in 2006 but back then it was a different finale that allowed Tom Booenn to beat Allan Davis and Stefan Schumacher in a sprint. In 2004, the scene was set for a more dramatic race when Alexandre Vinokourov reached the finish just 4 seconds ahead of a small 8-rider chase group that was led home by overall leader Jörg Jaksche.

 

 

 

 

Stage 6:

When the Col d’Eze time trial has featured on the course, the penultimate stage has usually been a very hilly affair in the hilly terrain around Nice. That is again the case for this year’s stage 6 which is loaded with the tough climbs and the beautiful surroundings that characterize this part of the country. As usual, however, the stage finishes with a long descent to the Promenade d’Anglais in Nice, meaning that it is hard for the GC riders to make a difference on the day when they finally reach the sunny Cote d’Azur to complete their journey to the sun.

 

In the past, the stage was usually a very long one that would serve as perfect preparation for the classics but this year it is only 180.5km long. It starts from Vence where the riders will first do a gradually ascending 24.5km loop on the southwestern outskirts of the city before they reach the bottom of the category 1 Col de Vence (9.7km, 6.6%).

 

After the summit, the riders will tackle the longest descent of the race before heading in a northeasterly direction. They will now go up the category 2 climbs Cote de Levens (6.2km, 5.5%) and Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4km, 4.5%) in quick succession before a descent leads to another double climb. The category 2 Cote de Coaraze (5.9km, 5.6%) and the category 1 Col Saint-Roch (9.6km, 4.5) will offer more than 15km of climbing before another long descent leads to the start of the finale as the riders now travel in a southerly direction towards the coast.

 

The main challenge in the stage is the category 1 Cote de Peille (6.6km, 6.8%) whose summit comes just 27km from the finish. A short flat section leads to the long well-known descent through La Turbie and Eze as the riders head towards Nice following the coastline. The descent ends with 2km to go but as the riders approach the Promenade d’Anglais there is the usual small 500m climb which summits at the flamme rouge. 500m of descending leads to the flat finale on the famous and wide avenue at the Cote d’Azur.

 

This stage contains most of the well-known climbs from this area and most of the riders will be familiar with the terrain. The climbs are not very hard and the classics riders usually manage to keep up with the best in this stage. In the past, however, a small group has managed to escape and if they are committed, they may be able to hold of their chasers. A sprint from a select group of GC and Ardennes riders is the most likely outcome but a long-distance breakaway also has a very good chance on a day that is hard to control and has no obvious favourite.

 

Every year a stage finishes on the Promenade d’Anglais. Last year Arthur Vichot won the stage after a sprint from a small group of favourites and one year earlier Sylvain Chavanel was the fastest from a bigger group. In 2012, Thomas De Gendt won from a breakaway and in 2011 Thomas Voeckler was the strongest among the escapees. In 2010, Amael Moinard did a similar performance while Antonio Colom beat Alberto Contador and Frank Schleck in a three-rider sprint in 2009.

 

 

 

 

Stage 7:

One stage characterizes Paris-Nice more than anyone else. The time trial up the Col d’Eze on the outskirts of the finishing city has been the traditional finale to a week of excellent racing and has usually had a huge impact on the race. For several years in the early part of this century, however, ASO preferred to end the race on the Promenade d’Anglais and it wasn’t until 2012, that the stage was finally back on the course. In 2013, it again played its usual key role and after a one-year absence, it will again decide the race in 2015.

 

At just 9.5km, it is a very short stage that takes off from the northern outskirts of Nice. From there, the riders head straight onto the climb which is steepest at the bottom. The first two kilometres have a gradient of 7.7% and 8.5% respectively but then it comes significantly easier. After a few kilometres with a  gradient of 3-6%, the next three kilometres are again a bit harder as they average 7%, 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. The final 1.5km are almost completely flat as they only have a gradient of 1.2%.

 

This stage could turn out to be the most decisive of the entire race and things can be turned around on the final day. The climbers usually do really well in mountain time trials and they are usually among the best in this stage. However, the climb is not very steep and so the more versatile GC riders can make use of their power to make a difference in the easier sections. Hence, it is usually a complete rider who takes the win and this makes the 2015 Paris-Nice one for the real stage race riders.

 

In 2012, Bradley Wiggins defended his overall lead when he narrowly beat key rival Lieuwe Westra by just a single second. One year later, the winning margin was a lot bigger when a dominant Richie Porte confirmed his superiority by distancing Andrew Talansky and Nairo Quintana by more than 20 seconds. Before the long absence, Dario Frigo and Andreas Klöden won the stage in 2001 and 2000 respectively.

 

 

 

The weather

On paper, Paris-Nice will be decided on the climbs in the second  half of the race but the history of the race is loaded with examples of GC contenders who have lost it all in the flat opening stages of Northern France. Every rider with overall ambitions in this race fears those tricky, flat routes where the wind can create a bigger selection than the queen stage later in the race.

 

Hence, they will all be carefully studying the weather forecast and they will be pleased to know that the wind is unlikely to play much of a role. After a sunny prologue, there will only be a light wind for the opening road stage which will take place in overcast and dry conditions. Things won’t change much for Tuesday’s stage but it may be slightly windier for Wednesday’s final flat stage where a bit of rain is also forecasted. Spring will have arrived for the queen stage where the riders can expect sunny conditions but at his early moment of time, it seems that there may be more wind and rain for the final stages which usually take place in sunny conditions.

 

The favourites

With the course being back to normal, the 2015 Paris-Nice is going to be completely different from the previous edition. This time there is no room for classics riders and it will be the real stage race specialists that come to the fore. The course has a bit of everything and is like a mini grand tour, meaning that the really versatile riders should shine.

 

On paper, the time differences are going to be made in the prologue, stage 4 and stage 7. Stage 6 is a very hilly affair but with the final long descent, history shows that it is unlikely to make any difference among the best climbers. In the past, the opening sprint stages have often created a big selection due to windy conditions but as the weather forecasts predict a calm opening to the race, the importance of a strong team for the fight for position is not as big as it has been in previous years. Nonetheless, those stages will be extremely nervous and there may be crashes in the finale. Hence, it remains very important for GC riders to ride attentively near the front.

 

The summit finish in stage 4 is not overly tough and so the time differences between the very best riders are likely to be pretty small. The bonus seconds will of course open up slightly bigger gaps but it seems that the key stage will again be the Col d’Eze time trial. History proves that a lot of damage can be done on that climb and mountain time trials are generally the most selective kind of stages in stage races. Finally, the prologue will play a role in a race that is likely to be determined by relatively small time gaps.

 

With two time trials and a mountaintop finish that is not too hard, one may think that this is a race for time triallists. However, it would be a mistake to regard the final stage as a traditional TT. Mountain time trials generally suit pure climbers and even though the less steep climb should tip the balance slightly more towards the rouleurs, history shows that the pure climbers often do very well on the Col d’Eze. This is definitely not the kind of time trial in which Tony Martin will be the big favourites. With only 6.7km of flat time trialling, the 2015 Paris-Nice is suited to climbers.

 

Col d’Eze is set to decide this year’s race and the start list contains two riders who have won that stage in the past. When that time trial last featured on the course in 2013, Richie Porte took a commanding victory and after a one-year absence, the Australian is back with the goal of reclaiming his title.

 

Last year Porte was hugely disappointed with the design of the course and with Chris Froome out with a back injury, he made a late decision to do Tirreno-Adriatico instead. This year he could probably not have wished a better layout and the race seems to be tailor-made for him.

 

Porte goes into the race in excellent condition. He was clearly the strongest rider in the Tour Down Under and he has brought the good form back to Europe. In the Volta ao Algarve, he did a surprisingly poor time trial but one day later he proved that it was just a case of a bad day. In the queen stage, he did a lot of work for race leader Geraint Thomas but he still had enough left in the end to beat the likes of Michal Kwiatkowski with a late acceleration on the Alto do Malhao.

 

At his best, Porte is one of the very best climbers in the world as he proved in the 2013 Tour de France and after an illness-marred 2014 he seems to be back at 100%. He will be among the big favourites in the queen stage and the combination of his rouleur and climbing skills make him the obvious favourite for the final stage. At the Australian championships, he rediscovered his time trialling legs and even though he still seems to be suffering a bit in the flat time trials, he knows how to pace himself up the Col d’Eze. Compared to the pure climbers, he should also be able to do very well in the prologue and he is likely to head into the mountains with a small advantage over most of his rivals. An in-form Richie Porte must be the favourite to win the race.

 

Another rider who must be very pleased with the course, is Tejay van Garderen. For several years, the American was an excellent time triallist but he seemed to suffer a bit on the big climbs. Last year he took a massive step up and he seems to have carried that momentum into 2015. He rode extremely well in the Tour of Oman where he was only narrowly beaten by Rafael Valls and he even seems to be stronger than he was last year.

 

Van Garderen is a great prologue rider and he should do well on the opening day. He suffers a bit on the very irregular climbs but the pretty easy climb in the queen stage suits him perfectly. Finally, he is an excellent mountain time triallist, especially on this kind of climbs that are not too steep. He has dominated the Vail time trial in the USA Pro Challenge and it is pretty similar to this one. The combination of good form and a course that suits him very well turns van Garderen into Porte’s biggest rival.

 

When Porte won the race in 2013, his nearest rival was Andrew Talansky who got his big breakthrough in that race. After a one-year absence, the Cannondale-Garmin leader is back and he hopes to hit the ground running in 2015. He hasn’t done any racing yet but he has changed his schedule slightly and aims to be at 100% for Paris-Nice, Catalunya and Pais Vasco before he takes a break to prepare for the Tour de France.

 

The fact that he hasn’t raced yet, means that his condition is a bit uncertain but at least he aims at being good in this race and history shows that he can reach a very high level only by training. In last year’s Dauphiné he showed that he has stepped up his level massively and he now seems to be one of the very best stage racers in the world. He is both an excellent climber and a great time triallist and the Col d’Eze TT suits him perfectly. Like van Garderen, he has done very well in the Vail TT and two years ago he was second behind Porte in this TT. If he hasn’t failed in his build-up, Talansky is one of the big favourites for this race.

 

Another rider who goes into the race with no previous racing in his legs, is Fabio Aru. The Italian has been training at altitude and claims to go into the race with good sensations. He would definitely have preferred a tougher course but with only 6.7km of flat time trialling, he should be pretty pleased.

 

As a pure climber, Aru should do well on the Col d’Eze – just remember his excellent mountain time trial in last year’s Giro. Of course he will lose time in the prologue but on paper he is probably the best climber in this race. It all depends on his current condition and unfortunately history shows that he is rarely too good at this time of the year. If he can break the trend, however, he may drop all his rivals on the climbs.

 

Another in-form climber is Rafal Majka whose fourth place in Oman proves that he has started the season well. This race is the first big goal of his year and with a focus on the Tour de France he can allow himself to reach his peak condition in the spring. Like Aru, he will of course lose a bit of time in the prologue but he has improved his time trialling a lot. He should be able to do very well on Col d’Eze and the queen stage obviously suits him really well. In Oman, he was slightly below van Garderen’s level and obviously he needs to be better than the American on the climbs in this race. On paper, however, he is a stronger climber and with an improved condition, he should be one of the favourites.

 

Rui Costa is usually very good in the early part of the season and after a poor start, he finally found his legs in the queen stage of the Tour of Oman where he finished fifth despite working for Rafael Valls. Costa is no pure climber but the Paris-Nice course seems to be tailor-made for him. The climb in the queen stage is not too hard and so it may come down to the explosive skills near the top which should suit Costa well. He is no time trial specialist but on a hilly course he is usually very strong as he proved when he crushed the opposition in the mountain time trial at the 2013 Tour de Suisse. Compared to the specialists, he will lose time in the prologue but he could beat them on the Col d’Eze to take the overall win.

 

2014 was a breakthrough year for Wilco Kelderman and with a solid showing in Ruta del Sol, he seems to be even stronger in 2015. Last year he arrived at Paris-Nice after a more modest showing in Algarve but he was one of the strongest riders in the Race to the Sun and if it had not been for bad luck, he would probably be on the podium. Kelderman is an excellent prologue rider and among the big favourites, he could turn out to be the best on the opening day. The long, gradual climb in the queen stage suits him really well and in theory he should also do well on the Col d’Eze. For some reason, he has often disappointed a bit in his time trials but if he can rediscover his best legs, he will be a contender.

 

Simon Spilak is usually one of the stars of the spring. The Slovenian excels in cold conditions and for the past two years he has been very strong in the WorldTour stage races in March, April and May. In the Tour du Haut-Var, he even mixed it up in an uphill sprint which is very unusual and this indicates that he is riding really well. Spilak is a no time trial specialist but an uphill time trial should suit him well and history shows that he can be very strong in time trials when he is at his best. He will lose a bit of time in the prologue but he could take it all back on the Col d’Eze.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski has tried to have a slower start to the season and he is clearly not as strong as he was in 2014. However, he is now getting closer to his first big goal in Milan-Sanremo and this means that he should be getting closer to his best. In Algarve, he was already at a decent level and a second place proves that he is on the right track. Since then he has only become stronger and this race suits him pretty well. Kwiaktkowski will probably never be a rider for the very long climbs but the pretty easy climb in the queen stage should suit him well. Furthermore, he has been time trialling excellently all year and a mountain time trial should be pretty good for him. With stage 7 likely to be the most important, Kwiatkowski is one of the favourites.

 

Some years ago Rafael Valls marked himself out as a man for the future but for some reason he disappeared into anonymity. Now he seems to be back to his best and he was definitely the strongest rider in the Tour of Oman despite being up against a host of grand tour stars. This race is obviously at a different level but there is no reason to suggest that Valls will not be among the best on the climbs. He will lose time in the opening prologue but he should do well on Col d’Eze and if he has maintained his condition, he could create another surprise.

 

Romain Bardet was the best of the rest behind Chris Froome and Alberto Contador in Andalusia and he has hit the ground running. He showed solid form in the French one-day races last weekend and he should be one of the best on the climbs in this race. Unfortunately, he is no great time triallist and he will probably lose a bit too much time in the prologue. Furthermore, it may be hard for him to match the best on the Col d’Eze and so it may be hard for him to win the race.

 

Benat Intxausti had a poor 2014 season but in 2015 he seems to be back to his best. Already in Mallorca he rode really well and he confirmed that assessment when he finished on the podium in the Ruta del Sol (after Romain Bardet had been set back by a puncture). Intxausti has shown flashes of a very high level and he has the versatile skills to excel on this course. He is a great time triallist and a very good climber and this should set him up for a good performance on the Col d’Eze.

 

Intxuasti’s teammate Ion Izagirre is another great candidate. The Basque is targeting weeklong stage races in 2015 and this race is his first big goal. In Algarve, he showed good form by finishing third in the queen stage and riding a good time trial and he would probably have finished on the podium if he had not punctured in the stage 2 finale. Izagirre rarely finishes outside the top 10 in a hilly time trial and is unlikely to break the trend in stage 7. If he can improve on his 2014 level, this race could be his big breakthrough.

 

Geraint Thomas won the Volta ao Algarve where he was originally expected to play a support role for Richie Porte. He goes into Paris-Nice with similar plans but will also try to do a good GC himself. The Welshman is getting better and better on the climbs and he is obviously a very good time triallist too. The prologue suits him very well and as none of the climbs are too steep, he should be able to do well in both stages 4 and 7. In Paris-Nice, Porte was climbing better than Thomas but as it was the case in Algarve, he may use the strength of his teammate to make a surprise move that could give him the overall win.

 

Tony Martin had made Paris-Nice a very big goal but he must have been disappointed by the course. In 2011 he won the race by virtue of a long time trial but this year he only has 6.7km of flat time trialling to gain time on his rivals. In last year’s Tour de Suisse, however, he proved that he should never be underestimated on climbs that are not too steep and the Paris-Nice climbs suit him really well. It may be hard for him to keep up with the lighter guys on Col d’Eze but with his excellent pacing skills and good climbing legs, he is definitely a contender.

 

Mathias Frank had a fantastic 2014 season until he broke his leg in the Tour de France. This year he should take another step up and things are promising after he climbed well in the Tour of Oman at a time of the year when he is rarely very good. Frank is a great climber but has also turned into a pretty strong time trialist and on paper the Col d’Eze TT should suit him really well. As he is unlikely to be at 100% yet, he is unlikely to win the race but being better than last year, he should be up there.

 

Tom Dumoulin had made this race a big goal and he claimed to be feeling really well after he finished fourth in the Tour Down Under. Unfortunately, he has fallen ill and lost a lot of training this past week. Hence, he no longer knows what to expect and it will now be hard for him to be among the best. On the other hand, he took a very big step up in 2014 and this year he is unlikely not to improve. With the climbs not being too steep and the TTs very important, the course suits him really well.

 

If Aru is not yet at 100%, Jakob Fuglsang will be the back-up plan. The Dane showed good condition in Oman and he is usually pretty good at this time of the year. The long, gradual climbs should suit him well. In the past, he was a very good time triallist but while improving his climbing, his lost his best TT skills. A mountain time trial should suit him well though and he could do well in this race.

 

Tiago Machado has been in good condition all year after he seemed to find his best legs again in 2014. He is now back on the WorldTour and will be one of the Katusha leaders in this race. He was slightly off the pace in the Tour Down Under but was a bit better in Algarve where the combination of his good time trial and climbing allowed him to finish on the podium. He is unlikely to match the best in the TTs and on the climbs but his versatility could still see him make a good overall result.

 

***** Richie Porte

**** Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky

*** Fabio Aru, Rafal Majka, Rui Costa, Wilco Kelderman, Simon Spilak, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rafael Valls

** Tony Martin, Romain Bardet, Benat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Geraint Thomas, Mathias Frank, Tom Dumoulin, Jakob Fuglsang, Tiago Machado

* Tim Wellens, Warren Barguil, Luis Leon Sanchez, Rein Taaramae, Eduardo Sepulveda, Sergei Chernetskii, Simon Yates, Ben Hermans, Rohan Dennis, Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Gallopin, Arnold Jeannesson, Bob Jungels, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Robert Kiserlovski