Usually, it requires years for a one-day race to be regarded as a classic but one race has made the jump into the elite of one-day races almost from its very beginning. The Strade Bianche with its iconic white gravel roads has all the ingredients of a unique race and is already regarded as one of the most prestigious one-day races despite this year's only being the 9th edition. With its gravel roads, many hills, and very steep finish, it is one of the rare races to attract cobbled specialists, Ardennes riders, and grand tour stars and all are in with a chance on one of the most exciting courses of the entire cycling calendar.

 

The idea is so obvious that the real surprise is that it took so long time for anyone to turn it into reality. The many historic gravel roads in the Siena area and the rolling nature of the terrain with its many short, steep climbs invite themselves as the scene of a great bike race but it wasn't until 2008 that Giro organizers RCS Sport decided to put on a major race in the area. Inspired by a big event for recreational cyclists, they hosted the inaugural event of the Strade Bianche in the autumn of 2007 when Alexandr Kolobnev beat Marcus Ljungqvist to become the first winner of what would soon become a new classic, then known as Monte Piaschi Eroica.

 

RCS did nothing to hide that their real ambition was to turn the race into somewhat of an Italian edition of Paris-Roubaix and this made it tempting to move the race from its original autumn date to the spring. The move was made for the second edition and the organizers could not have wished a better outcome. Major classics stars Alessandro Ballan and Fabian Cancellara battled it out in an exciting battle, with the latter coming away with the win, and a few weeks later the duo were again at the forefront when they fought against Tom Boonen on the Roubaix velodrome.

 

That race may have given the impression that the race was one for the riders that excel on the cobbles but the race is a much more diverse affair and truly unique. Part of the race may take place of gravel roads but the other significant features are the many short, very steep climbs. Many are on gravel roads which makes it harder for the tiny climbers to raise from the saddle but it doesn't change the fact that steepness of the climbs and the combined level of climbing make the race suitable for Ardennes specialists and grand tour contenders too. And the race finishes on the very steep climb to the Piazza del Campo in Siena which just turns the race even more into the hands of the riders that excel whenever the road points upwards.

 

To realize how diverse the race is, one only has to take a look at the winners list. After Cancellara's and Ballan's battle in 2008, it was a stage race rider like Thomas Löfkvist who powered clear of Ardennes specialist Fabian Wegmann, Martin Elmiger and Edvald Boasson who both thrive on the cobbles, to win the 2010 edition, with the top 10 even containing stage race riders like Andy Schleck and Ryder Hesjedal. One year later it was Ardennes rider Maxim Iglinskiy who held off Löfkvist, Michael Rogers, Filippo Pozzato, and Ryder Hesjedal to form a top 5 that is hard to imagine in any other race. In 2011 - Philippe Gilbert's magical year - the race was of course just one of many to be won by the then Lotto captain as he held off Ballan, Damiano Cunego, Jure Kocjan and Cancellara on the uphill finishing straight while Cancellara took a dominant solo win in 2012. In 2013, Moreno Moser and Peter Sagan made it a memorable 1-2 after a tactical masterpiece from the Cannondale team.

 

It is this kind of versatility that makes the race exciting and open to many possible scenarios. It may end in a sprint from a small group on the uphill finishing straight, suiting the punchy climbers, or a rider like Cancellara may use his raw power on the gravel roads to power clear for a solo win. In the Strade Bianche, almost any kind of rider - with sprinters and pure climbers being notable exceptions - can come to the fore and riders go up against rivals that they rarely face in their key objectives.

 

The race may be a unique one that has attracted an interest from most of the biggest riders and teams and it may already have taken an important position on the calendar. Compared to the biggest classics, however, it remains a preparation event. No one goes into the season targeting Strade Bianche as a key objective and it is mainly a key testing event for the Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-Sanremo and while everybody would love to win it, nobody would be devastated to lose. For a race to enter the real elite of cycling's one-day races, it needs a long history that the Strade Bianche doesn't have.

 

That doesn't take anything away from the excitement of the race and with the addition of the Roma Maxima which took place in an equally stunning scenery with a finish in the centre of Rome, RCS Sport briefly offered a high-level, prestigious doubleheader that attracted the interest from almost the entire field of ProTeams. The Rome race has now been cancelled again but it hasn’t prevented Strade Bianche from again attracting a steller line-up.

 

Last year’s race was a truly exciting battle between the three pre-race favourites. With 20km to go, Peter Sagan seemed to have been dropped but suddenly the Slovakian flew straight past a select front group. Michal Kwiatkowski joined him and the pair managed to hold off a lone Alejandro Valverde to battle it out for the win on the steep slopes in Siena. Here Kwiatkowski rose to stardom when he dropped his Slovakian rival and took a memorable solo win in the historic centre of the Italian city. Sagan took second while Valverde had to settle for third. With a less intensive racing schedule, Kwiatkowski will do Paris-Nice this year and this means that he won’t defend his title in Italy. Sagan has made a late decision to return to the race that he still hasn’t won and Valverde will come out of his brief early-season hiatus to try to add another big classic to his palmares after his successful debut in 2014.

 

The course

Despite its short history, organizers RCS Sport have already found a rather fixed format for their race. In the first years, there were several changes to the course but in the last few years, the layout has been largely intact. The amount of gravel roads and difficulty of the sectors have changed a bit but the most important parts of the finale is now well-known by the riders. One feature has been part of the race every year: the beautiful and spectacular finish on the steep climb to the Piazza del Campo in Sienna.

 

For the first time ever, the route is virtually unchanged compared to last year. The riders have to do 500m less in the beginning of the race and there is a slight change with around 25km to go that increases the overall distance from 197km to 200km but otherwise nothing has changed. Last year the start of the race was moved from the traditional site in Gaiole di Chianti to San Gimignano, meaning that the race was made slightly longer. The number of gravel sectors went up from 8 to 10 but the number of kilometres of uneven surface reduced from 57.2 to 45.4. Despite this, the fact that four of the sections came in quick succession made race director Mauro Vegni claim that the 2014 edition to be the hardest yet and the racing seemed to confirm that assessment.

 

There is not much flat terrain in the Siena area which is characterized by rolling hills and steep climbs. Right from the beginning in San Gimigniano, the riders hit a small 5km ascent and from there they pass through rolling terrain as they head in a southeasterly direction to get into the area with the gravel roads.  The racing is likely to be very aggressive at this point as team tactics play a key role in a race like this, making it important that the early break has the right composition.

 

The riders hit the first gravel section at the 32.1km mark but this is one of the easiest with a 2-star rating and comes at a point that can be described as the flattest of the entire race. At 2.2km, it is not overly long either and there is a long way to go until the riders hit the next section, meaning that it is unlikely to play too much of a role.

 

The early break is likely to have been established by the time things kick off in earnest. That happens after 49km of racing when the riders start a stretch with four gravel sections that come in quick succession and make little room for recovery.

 

The first one is only 2.1km, has a 1-star rating and is rather flat but it gets serious on the third one which is 5.9km takes the riders up a steep 10% climb and halfway down its descent and has a four-star rating. Only 6.2km of paved roads follow before its time for another undulating, 4.4km section with a 2-star rating. After another 6.2km of paved roads, it is time for a long, flat 5.5km gravel section which only has a 1-star rating.

 

The riders have covered 86km by the time they finish the 5th section and the first selection is likely to have been made. The early white roads are all located too early to be the scene of any major attacks but they can be used to set a hard pace that will make the race hard and send riders out the back door.

 

The riders now do 36.5km of paved roads but they are by no means easy as they include the biggest climb of the day (4km at 5%) that takes the riders up to 456m of altitude. Another three short, steep climbs follow and from now on, it is almost up or down all the way to the finish in Siena.

 

At the 120km mark, the riders reach a very long 9.2km section of gravel roads. It is predominantly downhill, has a 3-star rating and is followed by 17.3km of paved roads, meaning that it is unlikely to make much of a difference.

 

At this point, however, the battle is about to kick off in earnest and the battle for position will be intense when the riders approach the key section of the day which comes with 53km to go. At 11.5km, the Monte Sante Marie section is the longest of the race and it is the only with a five-star difficulty racing. The section includes several short steep climbs and this is probably the scene of the first major attacks.

 

At the end of the section, a small group of favourites is likely to have formed and now it is time for the different groups to organize themselves and initiate a chase. It depends on the composition and the level of cooperation how much regrouping will take place but from now on the race will be a true elimination race.

 

The 17.6km of paved roads that follow are rather easy but precede the final three gravel sectors that are all short but contain steep climbs that are the perfect launch pads for the final attacks. The first one is just 800m long, starts 27.7km from the finish and is almost all uphill.

 

19.35km from the finish, the riders hit the 2.4km penultimate sector which has a 4-star rating. It is uphill all the way but after a short 10% stretch with a 15% maximum in the beginning, the gradients are rather easy at 3-4%. At the end, 3.9km of slightly descending and ascending paved roads follow before it is time for the Le Tolfe section which is where the final selection can be made.

 

The section is just 1.1km long but after a short descent, its second half consists of a brutal climb with a gradient of 11.4% and a maximum of 18%. It has a three-star rating. This is where Fabian Cancellara has often put in his best attacks and the front group has splintered to pieces.

 

At the end of the section, 12.05km remain and even though they are almost all up or down, there are no steep climbs or difficult descents. Depending on the race situation, this makes it possible for some regrouping to take place but will also open the door for late attacks. At this point, no team is likely to have strength in numbers and this could open the door for a sneaky move in a hectic finale like Moser did it in 2013.

 

The finale is rather technical as the riders go through two hairpin bends on the slight downhill section between the 4km and 2km to go marks. They turn left 1.7km from the finish and then head along slightly ascending, straight roads until they pass the gate and the pave section that lead them onto the steep climb that will bring them to the finish on the beautiful Piazza del Campo.

 

At the end of a 200km race, the 800m climb is a real leg breaker and even though the average gradient is only around 6.5%, it has a very steep 16% section at the bottom. The gradient exceeds 10% until 500m from the finish line. The riders will do a sharp right-hand turn just after the steepest part as they head up the iconic and beautiful road in the historic city.

 

300m from the line they do a sharp left-hand turn and from there it is downhill to the finish. The road is very narrow and bends slightly to the right before the final sharp right-hand turn with 150m to the line. This 7% downhill section is extremely technical and the real sprint will take place before the final corner as there is no way to pass each other on the final short stretch to the finish.

 

Several different scenarios are possible but most often a small group of favourites arrive at the bottom of the final climb and then it is all decided in a final brutal sprint up the slopes and a fierce battle for position for the final corner. The final climb is so hard that one rider usually arrives at the finish on his own but as Cancellara has proved, it is also possible to escape on your own much earlier in the race. One thing is certain: Only a select group of the strongest riders will remain in contention by the time the riders reach the Piazza del Campo in Siena.

  

 

 

 

The weather

At this time of the year, several races are often hampered by bad weather but for some reason, it seems that Strade Bianche is always spared the rain and cold which can turn the race into a muddy chaos. Again the riders will have beautiful sunny conditions all day and with a temperature of 11 degrees, they can’t ask for much more at this time of the year.

 

However, Thursday and Friday have both been extremely windy and even though the wind won’t be blowing quite as hard on Saturday, a strong wind from a northeasterly direction will certainly have its impact on the race. The riders will have a crosswind almost all day, with the only longer headwind section coming around the feeding zone. A few kilometres after the key zone of Monte Sante Marie where there will be a crosswind, the riders will turn into a cross-tailwind which they will have for most of the final part of the stage. As they go around Siena in the finale, they will gradually turn into a tailwind before they face a headwind in the final few kilometres.

 

The favourites

To pick favourites for the Strade Bianche is a rather unique experience as it involves considering names that usually don't feature at the top of the list in the same race. On one hand, the many steep climbs and the very tough finish appeal to the climbers. On the other hand, the gravel roads make it difficult for the lighter riders to benefit maximally from their climbing prowess while the heavier riders can capitalize on their ability to power up a steep slope while sitting in the saddle.

 

Of course the gravel roads mean that luck plays a certain role in the race. Just recall how Peter Sagan lost all chances due to an untimely puncture when he debuted in the race in 2012. Barring accident, however, the strongest riders will always come to the fore in this kind of race and it will be a gradual elimination until only the best are left.

 

In this kind of race, team tactics usually play a big role and it often takes some time for the early break to be formed. From there, it will be a gradual elimination race as the race gradually takes its toll and riders are sent out the back door. The key selection will be made on the Monte Sante Marie sector and at the end of it, only a few teams will have any domestique resources left. This opens the door for an aggressive race which is hard to control and a strong team to cover the attacks can be of utmost importance. As the race is hard but not extremely selective, team tactics will also come into play as Moser's 2013 win illustrated in the most obvious way.

 

This year the wind may play an important role as the crosswinds will make it possible for a strong team to make the race even more selective. This should both make the race a lot faster and more nervous and we could see splits occur in exposed sections. This is certainly an advantage for the classics riders. On the other hand, the climbers will relish the fact that the roads are dry, making it easier for them to tackle the gravel roads.

 

Many compare the race to the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix but the amount of climbing is a lot bigger than it is in those two races. Furthermore, the tough finish in Siena means that the heavier guys have to arrive on their own as they will have no chance in an uphill sprint against the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Peter Sagan. Ian Stannard and Sep Vanmarcke may have shown great condition but this race is different from a cobbled classic and is better suited to Ardennes specialists than riders for the Northern classics.

 

Last year Alejandro Valverde made his debut in this race and many were curious to see how he would fare on this kind of surface. The Spaniard both underlined his excellent conditions and versatile skills by riding a splendid race to take third and it seemed that only a lack of attention prevented him from joining Peter Sagan and Michal Kwiatkowski in the race-winning move.

 

This year Valverde will be back and he definitely wants to add another prestigious classic to his impressive palmares. He has proved that he can handle the gravel roads and the dry conditions should make it easier for a light climber like him. The short, steep climbs suit him down to the ground and he is virtually unbeatable in this kind of finale where he can both make use of his puncheur skills and his great technical abilities.

 

Valverde arrives at the race in excellent condition. He delivered a dominant performance in the hardest race in Mallorca and he rode solidly to finish fourth in the Dubai Tour which didn’t really suit him. After tackling the Tour of Qatar, he came up short in the Tour of Oman where he had to settle for third but it still proved that he is always one of the best riders in the early part of the season.

 

Valverde has now had a long break and he won’t be riding in next week’s WorldTour races. Strade Bianche is his big goal for the next few weeks and he will do his utmost to win. Compared to Oman which was a race for pure climbers, this classic may even suit him even better and he will be very hard to drop on the climbs. He is good at riding in the crosswinds and only Sagan seems to have reasonable chance of beating him on the climb to Piazza del Campo. Having proved his excellent condition, Valverde is our favourite to win the race.

 

Strade Bianche has Peter Sagan written all over it but for some reason the Slovakian still hasn’t won the race. In 2012, he was set back by a puncture while team tactics allowed Moreno Moser to take the win in 2013 when Sagan was clearly the strongest rider in the race. Last year he came up short against an exceptional Michal Kwiatkowski but with two second places in a row, he is obviously one of the favourites.

 

On paper, the course suits him really well. His powerful riding style makes him strong on the gravel roads, he handles the crosswinds perfectly and in the past he has always been extremely strong on this kind of short, steep climbs. The technical finale in Siena suits him down to the ground and only the most explosive climbers will be able to drop him on that ascent.

 

However, Sagan doesn’t seem to be the rider he once was. In 2014 he never reached his 2013 level and it was very unusual to see him end the season in the bad way he did. This year he has joined Tinkoff-Saxo and it will be interesting to see whether he can get back to his best in his new surroundings. Unfortunately, he didn’t look too strong in his first races. In stage 2 of the Tour of Oman, he made it into the lead group but he didn’t shine. In the past, he would have been the strongest on the short, steep climbs in the finale but this time he was one of several riders to get rejoin the best on the descent. This indicates that he still has some work to do to get back to the level that made him the dominant rider for this kind of races.

 

Sagan has had time to improve his condition and he will definitely be a contender. He is better on the gravel roads than Valverde but as things stand, he may have a hard time beating the Spaniard on the Piazza del Campo. Saturday will be a big test that shows whether Sagan is getting back to his former level.

 

Fabian Cancellara is the only rider to have won this race twice and he will again be one of the obvious favourites. No one can deny that the Swiss is no longer in the superior league he once was but his performances in last year’s classics proved that he is still one of the best in this kind of races.

 

Last year he only managed to win the Tour of Flanders as he focused too much on his big goals and so failed to pick up less prestigious wins along the way. This year he will try to be more successful and won’t have a single-eyed focus on the big classics and the Worlds. He has made it clear that he wants to be stronger in these early races and he proved his good form in the Tour of Oman when he took an impressive stage win in a very hard race.

 

Cancellara hasn’t raced since the Omani event but his condition will definitely have improved. The Strade Bianche is usually his first big test of the year and we can expect him to be at a very high level. Cancellara is very powerful on short, steep climbs and he is perfectly suited to the gravel roads. However, he will have a hard time beating the likes of Valverde and Sagan in the finale in Siena. He probably has to get rid of them earlier in the race and he still needs to prove that he has the power to take another solo win.

 

Zdenek Stybar may have missed most of the cyclo-cross season due to a crash in October but apparently it hasn’t slowed him down at all. He has been in excellent condition right from his first race of the year when he was an amazing third in the Vuelta a Murcia which should actually have been too hard for him. Later he seemed to be climbing better than ever before in Algarve and he looked amazingly strong in the opening weekend. He only missed the key move in Omloop due to a lack of attentiveness and in Kuurne he seemed to be at ease when he bridged the gap to Vanmarcke, Boonen and Boeckmans on the Kwaremont.

 

Stybar has never been riding Strade Bianche before but the race suits him perfectly. He is technically very good and should excel on the gravel roads. He shines on short steep, climbs and he is very explosive in this kind of finale. With his great condition, he will be very hard to drop and if he is there at the finish, he may have the speed to beat the likes of Valverde and Sagan.

 

Another in-form classics rider is Greg Van Avermaet who has always been strong in this event. The Belgian has evidently stepped up his level in the last two years and as he skipped the Strade Bianche in 2014, he should be able to improve on his 5th place from the 2012 edition of the race.

 

Van Avermaet has clearly had a very good start to the season and he was one of the best riders in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Compared to many of the riders for the cobbled classics, he is a much better climber and this hilly route suits him down to the ground. With his fast finish, he may even have a chance to beat the likes of Sagan and Valverde in Siena. However, he may lack the explosiveness to go with the very strongest accelerations on the gravel roads but if he can make it into the best group, he will be a contender.

 

Roman Kreuziger may mostly be known as a stage race rider but he has always liked this event. Last year he was 5th and this year he hopes to do even better. He lines up alongside Peter Sagan in a Tinkoff-Saxo team that seems to be the strongest in the entire race and this could allow Kreuziger to finally take the win. There are definitely faster riders like him but in a hard race, Tinkoff-Saxo may be the only team with two riders in a select lead group. This could allow Kreuziger to do what Moser did in 2013: use Sagan’s presence to get clear and take a solo win. The Czech showed good condition in Oman and with a hard race in his legs, he should be at his usual good level for this race.

 

Sep Vanmarcke was clearly the strongest rider in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and now he is ready for his Strade Bianche debut. On paper, the amount of climbing should be a bit too hard for him and the finale in Siena is probably also too tough for him. However, Vanmarcke is clearly in excellent condition and last year’s Canadian races proved that he can actually do pretty well on hilly courses. Since then, he has only become a lot stronger and it would be dangerous to rule the LottoNL leader out.

 

Peter Kennaugh is mostly riding in service of others but this race could be a chance to go for some personal glory. The British champion has had an amazing start to the year. He was probably the strongest rider in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and in the Ruta del Sol he finished in the top 10 despite working hard for Froome. With his explosive climbing skills, good technical abilities and fast sprint, this race should suit him well and as he is clearly riding with more confidence, he is a contender.

 

Moreno Moser is a past winner of this race but in most of 2013 and 2014 he was far from his former level. This year, however, he seems to be back to his best as he rode very strongly in Australia earlier this year. When he won the race, he may have benefited from Sagan’s presence but the race really suits him excellently. He is strong on short, steep climbs and is very fast in an uphill sprint, meaning that the finale in Siena suits him well.

 

Last year Cancellara was isolated in the finale but this year we could find two Trek riders in the select group at the end. Fabio Felline has been one of the best riders in the early part of the season and last weekend he seemed to be the one of the strongest climbers in the hard French one-day races. In this race, Cancellara will be the clear leader but Felline should be strong enough to make it into the front group. In that case, he may benefit from team tactics to come away with the win. It remains to be seen how he handles the gravel roads but with his good climbing legs and fast sprint he is suited to this race.

 

Ian Stannard is obviously in excellent condition but this race should be too hard for him. Last year he made the first big selection but when the climbers started to attack, he drifted backwards. This year he seems to be even stronger but to win the race he will have to arrive alone at the finish and anticipate the favourites. With his good condition, however, he will be difficult to catch if he attacks in the finale.

 

The same can be said for Niki Terpstra who is clearly one of the strongest riders at the moment. However, this race probably has too much climbing to suit him perfectly and in the tough finale in Siena, he will have a hard time. However, Terpstra is a very classy bike rider with an aggressive mindset and he is part of a very strong Etixx-QuickStep team with numerous cards to play. If he makes it into the select group in the finale, he may try a solo move which could pay off for the in-form Dutchman.

 

Francesco Gavazzi hopes to reinvigorate himself at Southeast and it seems that his decision to change teams is paying off. He has been climbing excellently in his first one-day races and in the Trofeo Laigueglia and the GP Costa degli Etruschi he seemed to be the strongest rider. This race is obviously at a different level but Gavazzi knows that he can perform in the WorldTour events too. It remains to be seen how he handles the gravel roads but this race could suit him well.

 

Tour de France champion Vincenzo Nibali is not perfectly suited to this race which is a bit too explosive for him. Furthermore, he is clearly not in his best condition and he was far off the pace in Oman. On the other hand, Tirreno-Adriatico is his first big goal and this means that he now needs to show some kind of form. He will have a hard time following the best riders in this race but he has the right aggressive mindset to make a surprise move in the finale.

 

If Nibali is not up for the challenge, his teammate Lars Boom could be a contender. On paper, this race should be too hard for him but in last year’s Eneco Tour he proved that he has improved his climbing skills massively. This year he has even lost a bit of weight and he looked really sharp in his first races until he fell ill at the Tour of Qatar. The Paris-Nice prologue is a big goal for him and so he may hold something back but if he goes full gas and attacks in the finale, he will always be hard to catch.

 

Finally, Filippo Pozzato deserves a mention. The Italian has had a few terrible years but now he seems to be on the right track again. He rode very strongly last autumn and this year he has been climbing really well in Oman and San Luis. He hasn’t raced for a while and this race is his first big test but if he is back to his best, he will be a contender. He has done well in this race in the past and even though the climbing may be a bit too much for him, you can never rule out an in-form Pozzato.

 

***** Alejandro Valverde

**** Peter Sagan, Fabian Cancellara

*** Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet, Roman Kreuziger, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Kennaugh, Moreno Moser

** Fabio Felline, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, Francesco Gavazzi, Vincenzo Nibali, Lars Boom, Filippo Pozzato

* Rinaldo Nocentini, Damiano Cunego, Giampaolo Caruso, Angel Vicioso, Salvatore Puccio, Mauro Finetto, Andriy Grivko, Sonny Colbrelli, Damiano Caruso, Samuel Sanchez, Franco Pellizotti, Alessandro De Marchi, Daniel Oss, Gianluca Brambilla, Rigoberto Uran, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Giovanni Visconti, Adam Yates, Simone Ponzi, Jasper Stuyven, Julian Arredondo