Paris-Nice has signaled the arrival of spring and the serious start of the European stage race season and it doesn't get any less intense and exciting when the second part of the traditional doubleheader of early-season WorldTour stage races kicks off in Italy. Once known as a punchy race for classics riders and the perfect preparation for the biggest one-day races, the event has changed its nature and is now a mini grand tour that has attracted the biggest stage race stars. With Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali all on the start line, the race has again attracted an incredible line-up that should make it one of the most competitive stage race before the Tour de France.

 

Most professional bike riders already have plenty of racing miles in their legs, making good use of the warm and sunny conditions in places like Australia, Argentina, the Middle East, Algarve, Andalusia, and the French Cote d'Azur to clock up the kilometres. While an early win is always appreciated and a welcome boost of confidence, however, it has until now been all about warm-up and preparation for the bigger races to come.

 

That all changed last weekend when the professional cycling calendar entered its next phase with the traditional Belgian opening weekend. While cycling fans all over the world have appreciated the globalized cycling and the many high-level early season events, there is still a feeling that the season hasn't started for real until the best classics riders have tested themselves on the Belgian cobbles for the first time.

 

The Omloop Het Nieuwsblad kicked off the race calendar of historic races on European soil. From now on, the races are no longer mere training in a laid-back atmosphere, now it is time to clock up the results. For the classics riders, things got serious last Saturday but for the stage race riders, the first real test has traditionally come with the double-header of big, historic stage races: Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Even though Paris-Nice is not the Tour de France and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is not the Tour of Flanders, the serious racing now begins in earnest.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico both play a strange, dual role on the calendar. On one hand, they are the first big objectives for the greatest stage racers who hope to land their first big wins in one of the most prestigious races on the calendar. At the same time, they are a crucial part of the preparation for the classics riders who benefit immensely from one week of WorldTour racing in tough conditions and versatile terrain. It may be difficult to decide whether to head to France or Italy but one of the races forms an indispensable part of every successful classics schedule - just ask Team Sky whose classics riders made the ill-fated experiment of skipping the historic stage races in 2013.

 

First held in 1966, Tirreno-Adriatico lacks the deep history of Paris-Nice but it is no wonder that it has overcome this fact to quickly become a major event on the calendar. Known as the Race of the Two Seas, it follows a route between the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic coasts and thus takes the riders through some very hilly terrain in the Italian mainland. The climbs in this area are not necessarily very long but their short, steep nature and the always undulating profiles make the race a perfect fit for any classics rider looking for form. If one adds the often pleasant weather conditions, one has the recipe for a success that has been able to battle for attention with the longer history of Paris-Nice.

 

The race quickly grew into a major event and already in the 7th edition in 1972, Belgian classics legend Roger De Vlaeminck started an impressive string of successes that saw him win the race 6 years in a row. Even though the winners list remains dominated by Italians, it has always been an international affair that has attracted the interest of the best classics riders, with many of them having won the race at least once.

 

Tirreno-Adriatico lacks the symbolic nature of the Paris-Nice which signals the arrival of spring by travelling from the cold of Northern France to the sun at the Cote d'Azur but for a rider looking for form, there is no need to go through those cold, windy days in the North. The better weather has always been a major draw card for the Italian race in its constant battle with its French counterpart for the strongest line-up.

 

In fact, the two races have shared the best riders rather nicely between them. With time trials and longer climbs, Paris-Nice has often attracted the best stage race riders while the lumpy natures of the courses in central Italy and often very long stages have made the Italian race a perfect fit for the classics riders. In recent years, the race has been won by riders like Michele Bartoli, Davide Rebellin, Erik Dekker, Filippo Pozzato, Paolo Bettini, Oscar Freire, and Fabian Cancellara while the grand tour specialists have been battling on the roads of France. As a consequence, Tirreno has won the battle of being the best preparation event for Milan-Sanremo and it is no wonder that most of the recent winners have arrived in Sanremo on the back of a solid showing in Tirreno.

 

In recent years, however, things have changed. Instead of continuing to attract the classics stars, organizers RCS Sport have tried to make the race into more of a mini grand tour. The latest editions have both included team and individual time trials and major summit finishes and they have gradually attracted more and more grand tour riders to their event. With the better weather and a course now suited to their characteristics, also the stage race riders have preferred to travel to Italy instead of going to France.

 

Last year Paris-Nice organizers ASO made a new move in the battle between the two races that saw the roles of the two races getting swapped. With no major summit finishers and no time trials at all, they put together a course that was described as eight consecutive classics. As Tirreno decided to keep its new format as a mini grand tour, it was no wonder that many stage race specialists changed their minds and headed to Italy instead France. On the other hand, several classics rider were tempted by the prospect of winning a stage or two on the way to Nice and decided to change their usual early-season schedule.

 

The move didn’t pay off for ASO. While Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana took all the attention with their great battle in Italy, the French race didn’t get its usual attention. In an attempt to again attract the major grand tour stars, Paris-Nice is now back to its traditional format and this year it even seems that the French race is the hardest of the two. Due to the uncertainty, however, the biggest stage racers have decided to go to Tirreno-Adriatico and this year the Italian race can field a formidable line-up that was originally set to be led by the four grand tour giants Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali and Nairo Quintana. However, illness has now taken Froome out of the race. Contador may have regretted his decision, claiming that the Paris-Nice course is better for a climber like him, and several young guns may be at the start in France but there is no doubt that Tirreno-Adriatico has again won the battle for attention. They may have lost out a bit when it comes to sprinters and classics riders as it seems that more of those have chosen Paris-Nice but a solid line-up still makes it a clear possibility that the winner of this year's Sanremo will again have prepared himself in Tirreno.

 

Last year the race was expected to be a hugely anticipated battle between Alberto Contador, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana. However, the Brit had to cancel his participation due to back problems and instead Richie Porte was brought in as replacement. After an in-form Michal Kwiatkowski had taken control of the race by virtue of a win in the opening team time trial, Contador showed his intentions when he won the big summit finish on stage 4. One day later he made a brave long-distance attack on the Passo Larciano, dropping Nairo Quintana along the way, and finally distanced the remnants of the early break on the steepest road in Europe, the Muro Guardiagrele. He defended his lead in the final time trial to finally add the Italian race to his palmares while Nairo Quintana and Roman Kreuziger completed the podium. All three riders will be back in 2015 as part of the excellent line-up for the race.

 

The course

As said, organizers RCS Sport have turned their event from a race consisting of a number of sprint stages, hilly classics stages, and often also a time trial into some kind of all-inclusive mini grand tour. The past four editions have all started with a team time trial on the Tyrrhenian coast and ended with a short individual race against the clock in San Benedetto del Tronto on the Adriatic coast and in between there have been some classic Tirreno stages with lumpy, hilly terrain and stages for the sprinters. In 2012, 2013 and 2014, the race has been for the real grand tour specialists as there has been a major mountain stage as well and this is again the format for the 2015 edition.

 

This year's edition contains a team and an individual time trial, a big mountain stage and a classical Tirreno stage with short, very steep climbs. In 2013, however, organizers RCS Sport received some criticism for making the race a bit too hard, with the epic penultimate stage receiving plenty of criticism. In recent years, RCS have been keen to listen to the riders' wishes and so they made last  year's course a bit easier with the inclusion of two sprint stages and one for the puncheurs. This is a gain the format for this year’s race which offers something for every kind of rider. Like in any grand tour, however, it will be the combination of time trialing and climbing that determines the overall winner of the race.

 

UPDATE: Due to concerns about the wind, the organizers have been forced to change the opening team time trial to a 5.4km prologue

 

Stage 1:

For the fourth year in a row, the race kicks off with a team time trial on the Adriatic coast. For the past three years, however, the opening stage has seen the riders travel between San Vincenzo and Donoratico but this year, the location has been moved to another coastal city, Lido di Camaiore. The distance has varied a bit over the year from 16.9km to 18.5km and this year the riders will have their longest test yet as they opening stage is 22.7km long.

 

The old course was pretty non-technical and mostly flat but had a small climb along the way. This year there is no reason to turn on the climbing legs as the organizers have designed a very simple, straightforward course in Lido di Camaiore. From the start the riders follow the coastal road for 9.5km before they take a sharp right-hand turn at the point where the intermediate time is taken. Another three turns follow in quick succession as they riders do a small loop before getting back onto the coastal road. The final 10.2km consist of the long run back to the start-finish area in the opposite direction. The stage is completely flat as the riders will stay between 2 and 5 metres above sea level for their entire ride.

 

With almost no elevation differences and plenty of long straight roads where the big TT specialists can excel, this is a course for the really powerful riders. The old course was a similarly simple affair but with a small climb and a few more technical challenges, it had a bit more variation. This one couldn’t be more straightforward and it will be one for the teams with the most power and the biggest engines

 

Given the flat, non-technical nature of the old course, it is no wonder that Orica-GreenEDGE and Omega Pharma-Quick Step who are probably the two greatest specialists in the discipline, are the winners of the past three opening stages, with the Belgian team triumphing in both 2013 and 2014. In 2012 and 2013 two years, however, the wind had played a role and given rather unequal circumstances for the early and later starters and the breeze from the sea could again influence the outcome of what is guaranteed to be a spectacular opening with lots of power and speed.

 

Lido di Camaiore hasn’t hosted a stage finish in recent years but it has been the scene of the Italian one-day race GP Camaiore which was last year won by Diego Ulissi but has now disappeared from the calendar. In 2007, Danilo Napolitano won a Giro d’Italia stage here in a bunch sprint and in 2002, Rik Verbrugghe was the strongest from a breakaway in the Italian grand tour.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The first road stage of the race has traditionally been for the sprinters and that is not set to change in 2015. In fact, it is a very easy affair as the riders stay close to the Tyrrhenian coast where the terrain is generally a lot flatter than it is in the hills close to the Adriatic coast.

 

The stage brings the riders over a relatively short distance of just 153km from Camaiore to Cascina and for once, the riders won’t start their easterly journey right from the beginning. In fact, they will stay close to the coast as they mainly travel in a southeasterly direction to pass closely by Pisa before reaching the finish in Cascina.

 

From the start, the riders first tackle a 22.2km circuit around Camaiore and this is the only hilly part of the course. After 12.7km of racing, they will go up the Pitoro climb before they descend back to Camaiore. They will start a second lap of the circuit that sees them tackle the climb for second time but before going back to the start area, they will leave the circuit to start their southeasterly journey.

 

From there, the stage is completely flat as the riders pass closely by the cities of Lucca, Pisa and Pontedera. Just south of the latter city, they will turn around to head back to Cascina on the outskirts of Pisa. After 111.7km of racing, they will cross the finish line for the first time to contest the intermediate sprint and start the first of two laps of a 20.7km finishing circuit. It is another flat, non-technical affair and should offer no challenges for the sprinters.

 

The finale is also pretty easy as the final major turns come just before the 4km to go mark. There are two sweeping turns with 2.8km and 1.9km to go and from there the road only bends very slightly to the left before the riders reach the finish on a completely flat road. The riders will go straight three roundabout in quick succession but the final one comes with 2km to go.

 

Most of the best sprinters in the world are on the start line and they won’t have many opportunities in this race. Hence, they can’t afford to miss out on this one and the stage is likely to be a very controlled affair before the big sprinters can battle it out. On paper, one may fear that the wind could come into play but this race is never very windy and it will be a surprise if things split up along the way.

 

Cascina also hosted the finish of last year’s opening road stage where Matteo Pelucchi beat Arnaud Demare and André Greipel in a bunch sprint after the same finale. Marcel Kittel was taken out by a crash that saw him memorably throw his bike to the ground.

 

 

 

 

Stage 3:

The GC riders will have to bide their time for another day before the real battle commences in the weekend but stage 3 won’t be a day for the sprinters either. Friday will see an almost identical copy of the one that was used last year and despite a mostly flat course, a tricky finale means that it is day for the puncheurs. Like last year the stage goes from Cascina to Arezzo and the long trek between the start and the finishing cities is almost completely identical to the one from 12 months ago but a twist to the finale means that the distance has been reduced from 210km to 203km. It is now time for the riders to leave the Tyrrhenian coast and head towards the Adriatic Sea and so the stage mainly consists of a long easterly run just south of the city of Prato.

 

The first part of the stage is easier than the opening kilometres of the second stage as the riders head east along completely flat roads. The first challenge comes  after 54.2km when the riders climb the San Martino is quickly followed by the second and final climb of the day, the Poggio alla Croce (4.5km, 6.1%, max. 10%). which comes at the 82.5km mark.

 

The climb is followed by a short descent and an uncategorized ascent that leads to the first intermediate sprint after 100.9km of racing. From there, the riders travel along long, straight roads and they are only slightly undulating.

 

With 65.6km to go, the riders reach Indicatore where they contest the second and final intermediate sprint before they continue along flat roads to the Arezzo where they cross the finish line for the first time with 55km to go. Last year the riders now did one lap of a long circuit that included a return to Indicatore and three laps of a 11km finishing circuit. This year the long circuit has been skipped and instead the riders end the race by doing 5 laps of the short circuit.

 

The final circuit rolls along city roads. A quick descent, with a series of wide bends, leads to the city stadium. The route then follows a long, flat, mostly straight road up to 3 km from the finish, where it enters the centre and winds along the city roads, with traffic islands and roundabouts. From now on, it is extremely technical as the riders go through a roundabout and two turns during the penultimate kilometre. At the flamme rouge, the riders turn right in two successive roundabouts, do a sweeping turn 750m from the line, a sharp turn 500m from the finish and then the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

The final circuit may be mostly straight and flat but all the excitement is saved for the final kilometre. It is not only technical. When the riders pass the medieval gate 1km from the finish, it is uphill all the way to the finish with an average gradient of 5.0%. The steepest part comes at the bottom where it briefly reaches 11% and then flattens out a bit. The final 500m have a 5.4% average gradient.  A short, steep uphill sector leads (first on asphalted roadway, then on stone slabs) to the uphill 200m home stretch (with a gradient around 5%) on 6m wide, stone-paved roadway.

 

The finale is highly technical and a good result in the sprint depends as much on good positioning as it does on good legs. The uphill finale means that it is not a finale for pure sprinters but suits the strong puncheurs who both have a powerful uphill sprint and can handle the many turns in the finale. It is no surprise that Peter Sagan won last year’s stage ahead of puncheurs like Michal Kwiatkowski and Simon Clarke and the Slovakian definitely wants to repeat that performance. This means that the stage is likely to be very controlled and will be decided in an uphill sprint. The GC riders have to pay attention though as the tricky finale means that splits are likely to occur as it happened in last year’s stage.

 

Apart from last year, Arezzo last hosted a major bike race in 2003. On that occasion, Mario Cipollini won a much more straightforward sprint ahead of Robbie McEwen and Alessandro Petacchi in the Giro.

 

 

 

 

Stage 4:

For the GC riders, the first two road stages have been all about staying safe and avoid any unexpected time loss but now it is finally time for them to test their climbing legs. The Tirreno-Adriatico has often had a very long stage in hilly terrain that is similar to a classic and makes it perfect preparation for Milan-Sanremo. This year that stage comes on day 4 when the riders travel from Indicatore to Castelraimondo over a 226km distance which is slightly shorter than usual.

 

At the start, the riders are still in the flat part of Italy that has played host to the first few stages and this means that the first part of the race is almost completely flat as the riders continue their easterly journey towards the Adriatic coast. Already after 13.7km of racing, they will tackle the Foce delle Scopetone climb and this will serve as the perfect launch pad for an early attack.

 

After the climb, the riders will continue along flat, straight roads while contesting the two intermediate sprints at the 94.6km and 124.1km marks respectively. Gradually, the terrain gets slightly hillier and as they approach the second sprint point, they will tackle a number of rolling hills.

 

After 138.6km of racing, the riders have finally reached the hilly eastern part of the country and they kick off the climbing action by tackling the tough Poggio San Romualdo (10.85km, 6.4%, max. 11%). After an easy start, it is a very regular ascent with a pretty constant gradient of around 7% before it flattens slightly out in the final kilometre.

 

The climb is followed by a long descent and then a very undulating section on turning, twisting roads that are characteristic for this region. The riders are now travelling in a southerly direction and briefly head onto flat roads before they start the difficult finale.

 

It starts with 23km to go when the riders go up the Crispiero climb (3.2km, 9.3%, max. 15%). After an easy start, the riders hit a tough kilometre where the gradient stay above 11% and the final kilometre isn’t much easier with a gradient of 8-11% .From now on, there is almost no flat road as the descent leads straight to the finish line in Castelraimondo from where the riders do one lap of a 13.35km finishing circuit. It first consists of 4 flat kilometres before the riders again do the Crispiero climb. The summit comes with 6.25km to go and they are all downhill – albeit not on a very steep road – before the final 250m ascend slightly with a 4% gradient. The finale is pretty technical with several sweeping turns on the descent and even two hairpin bends with 1500m to go. The riders will take a sharp left-hand turn with 750m to go before they enter the final left-hand turn that leads onto the 250m finishing straight.

 

The stage was originally set to include the big climb of Monte San Vicino before the riders tackled the Crispiero but that ascent will be skipped. Instead, the riders will now do a lap of the finishing circuit which means that it will be a stage for the punchy classics riders. The final part of the stage takes place in a terrain that is very difficult to control but with a long flat section in the beginning, the early breakaway should be within touching distance by the time the tricky part starts. As the GC will still be close, the break is likely to be caught and the big climb comes so early that it can’t only be used to make things hard. The final battle between the GC riders will take place the final time up the Crispiero and its steep gradients mean that it can do some damage. The tricky finale means that it is possible for a punchy climber to maintain a small gap all the way to the finish but the most likely scenario is that a small group will sprint for the win.

 

Castelraimondo last hosted a stage in 2011 when the unbeatable Philippe Gilbert won a sprint from a 13-rider group in a very similar stage.

 

 

 

 

Stage 5:

Stage 4 offered the GC riders a chance to test their legs but the time gaps are unlikely to have been very big. Instead, the climbers will have to make the big difference in the stage 5 queen stage which offers the only big summit finish of the race. The top of Monte Terminillo sits at 1675m above sea level, meaning that organizers RCS Sport continue their recent tradition of taking the riders into the mountains already at this early point of the year.

 

The 194km stage brings the riders from Esanatoglia to the top of Monte Terminillo and mainly consists of a long southerly run. The first part of the stage takes place in the hilly easterly part of the country and this means that the riders get the stage off to a tough start. Right from the beginning, they tackle the uncategorized La Mocra climb before they descend to the bottom of Passo Sallegri which is a climb of almost 10km. The descent leads to Pieve Torina where they will contest the first intermediate sprint and then they gradually ascend to the bottom of the short, steep La Arette.

 

The summit comes after 72.4km of racing and signals the end of the tough first part. The riders head slightly west to get out of the hilly area as they descent from the climb and get back to the flat part of the country where they spent the first few stages. The middle section is almost completely flat before the route again turns to the east and goes back into the hills.

 

The terrain gradually gets slightly hillier, with two small uncategorized climbs but the real battle starts when the riders hit the small uncategorized ascent to the intermediate sprint in Castelfranco. It is followed by a very short descent and then the riders head straight onto the lower slopes of the final climb. It is 16.1km long and has an average gradient of 7.3% and a maximum of 12%. It has an easy section at the beginning and at the midpoint but the rest of it is very regular with a gradient of 8-9%. Only the final 600m are easier as they average just 3.6%. The final part is held on a typical bending mountain road but there are no sharp hairpin bends. Instead, it has a number of sweeping turns, with the final one coming just 250m from the line.

 

At 16.1km, the Monte Terminillo is a very long climb for this time of the year and the pretty constant gradient of 8-9% means that it has the potential to create a big difference. It may lack the very steep sections that characterize most Italian mountains but it leaves very little room for recovery and on paper it should be a lot tougher than the summit finish in Paris-Nice. This is the day that all climbers have red-circled and so the early break will have no chance. As this is the only chance for the climbers to make a difference, bonus seconds are important and so the stage will be won by a GC favourite after a huge battle between the grand tour stars.

 

Monte Terminillo last featured in a major bike race in 2010 when Chris Anker Sørensen won a Giro d’Italia stage from a breakaway. In 2003, it also hosted a Giro stage and back then it was Stefano Garzelli who beat Gilberto Simoni and Andrea Noe in a 3-rider sprint.

 

 

 

 

Stage 6:

After the brutally hard 2013 edition of the race, the organizers decided to give the sprinters a goal in the second half of the race by including a sprint stage on the penultimate day. This year they have repeated the formula and this year the fast finishers even have a bigger incentive to be pleased. Last year’s stage included a late climb that spelled the end for Marcel Kittel’s hopes of winning the stage but this year the penultimate stage is almost completely flat and only has a single categorized climb at the midpoint.

 

The 210km stage brings the riders from Rieti and completes the journey between the two seas as it ends in Porto Sant’Elpidio on the Adriatic coast. Starting on the outskirts of the hilly area, the first part consists of a gradually ascending road as the riders travel in a northeasterly direction. The summit comes after around 50km of racing and then they gradually descend to the feeding zone in Roccafluvione.

 

Another uncategorized climbs follows before the riders descend to the bottom of the Montelparo climb (5.5km, 4.5%). Shortly after the summit, the riders contest the first intermediate sprint and then there’s only a short little hill to test the legs as the riders gradually descend in a northeasterly direction towards the coast.

 

The riders will reach Porto Sant’Elpidio and cross the finish line for the first time to contest the final intermediate sprint after 181.2km of racing. The final part of the stage consists of two laps of a 14.4km finishing circuit. It mainly consists of long, straight roads along the coastline and this means that it is almost completely flat. There are a few turns and a very small climb at the midpoint but then the riders get back to the flat roads along the coast. Just after the 2km mark, they will do two sharp turns in quick succession before they head onto the long 1400m flat finishing straight.

 

This is the final chance for the sprinters to test their legs before Milan-Sanremo and many will be eager to get revenge if they lost out on the opening day. With lots of sprinters in attendance, it is very unlikely that the stage won’t be firmly controlled and as the wind rarely plays a role in this area, this should end in a big bunch sprint on the Adriatic coast.

 

Porto Sant’Elpidio has hosted the finish of the penultimate stage two years in a row. In 2013, it was the end of the very dramatic penultimate stage that saw Vincenzo Nibali use the rain and the many short, steep climbs to take the leader’s jersey off Chris Froome’s shoulders. Peter Sagan stayed with his former teammate in the tough terrain and easily won the sprint. Last year the run-in was much easier and after Marcel Kittel had been dropped on the final climb, it was Mark Cavendish who benefited from a perfect lead-out to lead his teammate Alessandro Petacchi across the line for an Omega Pharma-Quick Step 1-2. In 2012, the city hosted the finish of a very hilly stage that was won by Miguel Angel Rubiano from a breakaway while Adriano Malori took the leader’s jersey.

 

 

 

 

Stage 7:

In the first part of the century, Tirreno-Adriatico always ended with a flat circuit race along the coast in San Benedetto del Tronto while any time trialing often took place on hillier courses earlier in the race. That script was ended after the 2010 edition when Edvald Boasson Hagen was the last sprinter to win in the coastal city.

 

The four most recent editions have all ended with a virtually identical time trial on an out-and-back course along the Adriatic Sea in San Benedetto del Tronto and this will again be the case for the 2015 edition. This year's 10km stage is an almost exact copy of the stage that has been used for the past editions and is completely flat and very non-technical. However, the organizers have moved the turning point slightly and pushed the start ramp a little forward, meaning that the distance has been increased from 9.2km to 10km

 

The change to the start means that the opening part is less technical. The riders take off from the seafront and quickly take a left-hand turn onto the coastal road. From there it is very simple all the way to the finish. The first part is a straight run down the coastal road until the turning point which comes just before the 5km to go mark. Along the way, they pass the former turning point where the time check will be taken after 4.4km of racing. The riders do a U-turn and then it is straight along the coastal road all the way back to the finish.

 

With long, flat roads, this is a course for the true specialists who can use their big power to get up to maximum speed and keep it there for their entire ride and it is no wonder that Fabian Cancellara won the two first editions before being beaten into 4th by Tony Martin, Adriano Malori, and Andrey Amador in 2013. Last year Adriano Malori took what was then the biggest win of his career when he beat the giants Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins and Martin after a great performance on home soil.

 

Due to the short distance, the time gaps are usually rather small and in the last few editions, it hasn’t had a huge impact on the final GC. With less climbing in this year’s edition of the race, however, it may play a bigger role and it will offer Chris Froome a chance to gain some time on the final day. The Brit may even have a chance to go for the stage win but it will probably be a day for the biggest specialists who can use their power on the long, straight roads.

 

 

 

 

The favourites

With the current layout of the course, it is hard to imagine how this race was once suited to puncheurs and sprinters. The format of a mini grand tour means that it is now suited to the real stage racers and the race will be decided by the combination of the skills that traditionally decide the three-week races.

 

Like a grand tour, the race has a bit for everyone but like in the big stage races, the mountaintop finishes and individual and team time trials are usually where the time gaps are made. It will be no different for the Tirreno-Adriatico. With the wind rarely playing any role in this race, it will only be important for the GC riders to avoid splits in the finales and stay safe on stages 2 and 6 which should be for the sprinters. Stage 4 is a very tricky one but the best climbers are unlikely to be able to be able to distance their rivals. A fast sprint, however, may allow some of the GC riders to pick up a few bonus seconds. Furthermore, stage 3 will be dangerous one as splits are guaranteed to occur in the finale and in a race that is likely to be decided by a small margin, it is important not to lose any seconds there.

 

What will ultimately decide the race is the combination of stage 1, 5 and 7. In the past, the team time trial has often been pretty important and this year it was set to be even longer than it usually is. Now it has been skipped in favour of a short 5.4km prologue and so it will come down to a combination of climbing and TT skills. Both time trials are pretty short and so the time gaps will be limited but in a race that is likely to be decided by seconds, they will both be important.

 

Of course it is the mountaintop finish in stage 5 that will be most important. Terminillo may not be the hardest climb in Italy but it definitely has the gradients to create a solid separation. This is the big day in the race and for the lower positions in the top 10, it is the day when the biggest gaps will be made. However, the best climbers could turn out to be pretty equal in this stage and so the time trials will become very important. Overall it will be the combination of climbing and time trialling skills that decides this race.

 

The race has a formidable line-up, with Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana and Vincenzo Nibali all in attendance. Chris Froome was set to have made the line-up even more stellar but due to illness he has decided to postpone his return to racing to the Vuelta a Catalunya. Nonetheless, the race will be one the most competitive of the entire season.

 

Contador took a beating in the Ruta del Sol at a time when he seemed to have stamped his authority on the race, and he was looking forward to getting his revenge in this race. With Froome out of the race, he will no longer get the chance to beat the Brit but it will make his road to a repeat win a lot easier. Nibali and Quintana haven’t shown their best condition yet while Contador was clearly flying in Andalusia and this makes him the obvious favourite to win the race.

 

Contador seems to be the strongest in both the disciplines that decide this race. Even when everybody is peak condition, it is hard not to regard the Spaniard as a better climber than both Nibali and Quintana. Furthermore, he is at his usual very high level while the only two riders who can realistically match him in the mountains both seem to suffer a bit. Nibali is clearly off the pace and Quintana usually needs a bit more racing to reach his best level at this time of the year.

 

This means that Contador is very likely to win the mountain stage and as he is also the best time triallists of the trio, he will be very hard to beat. The Spaniard may not be a TT specialist and he has clearly suffered a bit in the discipline since he returned from suspension. However, he has improved a lot in 2014 and he also did a very good time trial in the Ruta del Sol. The technical prologue should suit him well and even though the final stage is too much about power to make him a real contender, Rigoberto Uran is probably the only GC rider who will be able to beat him in that stage. Unless bad luck strikes, it is very hard to imagine that Contador won’t win this race.

 

Nairo Quintana is the big question mark for this race. Due to his crash in the Vuelta, he ended his 2014 season prematurely and when he returned to competition in the Tour de San Luis, he was far from his best level. Since then he has had another setback due to his crash at the National Championships and so he had to skip the Ruta del Sol.

 

This means that he will go into this race with a lack of racing rhythm and this could be costly in Italy. Furthermore, he is rarely as strong as the likes of Froome and Contador at this time of the year and he usually needs a bit more racing before he finds his best form. Finally, the course doesn’t really suit him too well as the Terminillo is not too hard and even though he has improved in the time trials, he will lose time to Contador in both the individual tests. As Movistar would probably have been the favourites in the team time trial, he will regret the change to the course that now sees him tackle a technical prologue which doesn’t do him any favours.

 

Finally, Quintana still hasn’t proved that he is able to match Contador in the mountains. He went into the Vuelta with a better preparation than his two key rivals but still he suffered in the beginning of the race. He may have won the Giro but one was not left with the impression than he was the same dominant figure as Contador and Froome were in the Dauphiné and the recent Ruta del Sol. He will still be Contador’s biggest rival but it is hard to imagine that he will win the race.

 

Vincenzo Nibali may gain a lot of attention but he is clearly not at his best. Instead, Rigoberto Uran could be the rider to produce a surprise. The Etixx-QuickStep rider has not done much racing this year and even though he is clearly not at his best, he seems to be at a reasonable level.

 

Uran showed solid form at the Colombian championships where he won the time trial. He didn’t shine in the hilly French one-day races at the end of February but he showed remarked improvement by finishing 7th in the Strade Bianche. He may have been unable to stay with the best on the climbs but as the difference was made as much by the crosswinds as by the ascents, the race didn’t really suit. He did a great comeback by making it into the top 10 with a late move.

 

In 2014, Uran improved his time trialling skills significantly as among the GC riders he should be the best in both the first and final stages. Due to his fast sprint, he may even try to pick up a few bonus seconds on stage 4 and he is likely to head into stage 5 as the leading GC rider.

 

However, Uran is not at Contador’s level in the mountains and he is clearly not in his best condition yet. It will be very hard for him to keep up with the Spaniard on the Monte Terminillo and he will have to go beyond his capacities to win the race. Due to his great TT skills, however, he is well-suited to a course that is not too selective and he is an obvious podium contender.

 

Bauke Mollema has come out with all guns blazing in his first year with Trek. Already in the Mallorica races, he rode very strongly and he was a fine second in the hard Vuelta a Murcia. Unfortunately, he fell ill in Andalusia and we never got the chance to see what he could do in the mountains. However, he was back at a solid level for the French one-day races last weekend.

 

Mollema goes into this race as one of the riders with most racing in his legs and that is definitely a big advantage. On the other hand, Mollema has suffered a lot in recent time trials and he was also far below his usual level in the Ruta del Sol TT. He needs to prove that he can get back to his past level in the TTs if he wants to be a contender for this race. Finally, he has had a tendency never to be very strong in March but as he seems to be riding better than ever at this time of the year, it may be time for him to turn it around.

 

Going into the season, Vincenzo Nibali made it clear that he was much better prepared than he was 12 months ago when he achieved his first win in June at the Italian championships. Despite usually being a very consistent rider, he suffered through the entire spring but this time he has claimed to be a lot better prepared.

 

However, Nibali has still had a very bad start to the season. In the Tour of Oman he was far off the pace and even though he played down the importance, it must be a slight concern as he aimed at much better results this spring. However, Tirreno-Adriatico is his first big goal and he has usually been able to raise his level a lot between Oman and Tirreno and he should be a lot stronger for this race.

 

Hence, it was disappointing to see him suffer a lot in Strade Bianche which is a race that suits him pretty well. He is clearly still far from his best condition and it will be very hard for him to be real contender in this race. Nothing suggests that he is able to match Contador at this point in the season. For this to happen, he needs to be close to 100% and that is definitely not the case at the moment. He will probably lose time to both his key rival in the individual tests even though he has improved his TT skills a lot. As he doesn’t seem to be strong enough to follow them in the mountains, he will probably have to be content if he can finish on the podium.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez has always had a slow start to his seasons and Tirreno-Adriatico has often marked his first goal. This year is no different and as usual the Spnaird has been far off the pace in his first few races. However, he was riding unusually poorly in the Tour of Oman and he openly admitted that he had expected to be a lot better in that race and that he has a lot of work to do to reach his best condition.

 

Rodriguez is likely to have improved a lot for this race but it will be very hard for him to get to the same level as the best climbers. Furthermore, the course doesn’t suit him very well. The long, regular climb of Terminillo is not a typical Rodriguez mountain and he will of course lose a lot of time in the time trials. He needs to take a lot of time back in the mountains. With his current condition, that is unlikely to happen and we would actually not be surprised if he finishes outside the top 10. On the other hand, Rodriguez is one of the select few whose top level could potentially make him a contender in this very classy field.

 

In last year’s Tour de France, Thibaut Pinot proved that he is now one of the very best climbers in the world and he is keen to prove himself again in the spring races. The Tour of Oman was his first big test and after he had suffered in the heat in the first stages, he bounced back with a great fifth place on the Green Mountain.

 

This proves that he is riding really well at the moment and we expect him to be among the best in the queen stage. He has also improved a lot in the time trials and should be able to limit his losses even though their natures don’t really suit him. We won’t be surprised if he turns out to be one of the strongest on the climbs but his time losses in the TTs is likely to be insurmountable.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is now one of the most consistent riders in the peloton. In fact he finished in the top 10 in every race he finished until his season was cut short by a broken leg in August. However, he seems to have recovered from that bad injury as he was among the best climbers in the Tour Down Under. Since then he has had a small break as the doctors had to remove some screws and a plate from his leg surgery and he has had a week without training. That has definitely set him back a bit but since then he has been back at altitude to prepare for this race.

 

Pozzovivo is always at a very high level and he just seems to get better and better. However, the course doesn’t suit him very well. The Terminillo is a bit too long and regular to his liking. Even though he has improved his time trialling a lot, the flat power courses are not for him and it will be very hard for him to take back all that time in the mountains.

 

After two difficult seasons, Jurgen Van Den Broeck has less pressure in 2015. He is no longer the Lotto Soudal captain for the Tour de France and instead his first goal is to use the many early WorldTour stage races to prove that he can get back to his previous level. When he has not been set back by injury and illness, however, he has proved that he is still an excellent climber. In last year’s Dauphiné, he was very close to the climbing level of the very best and he finished that race on the podium. Illness prevented him from capitalizing on his good form in the Tour but he should be able to return to his best. He was already at a reasonable level in Andalusia and he should be even stronger in this race which is his first big goal. He has improved a lot in time trialling and he should be among the best in this race.

 

With Froome out of the race, Mikel Nieve will get a rare chance to lead Team Sky in a major stage race. The Basque showed excellent condition in the Ruta del Sol where he was clearly the best of the rest behind Froome and Contador. That performance confirmed the excellent progress he has made since he joined the British team and we wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be Contador’s biggest rival on the Terminillo.

 

However, the course suits him very poorly as there is too much emphasis on the time trials. Among the GC riders, he is probably one of the worst time triallists and it will be very hard for him to take back the time loss in the mountains.

 

Last year Roman Kreuziger finished third in this race but since then he has done very little racing. His blood passport case meant that he missed most of the autumn season and when he returned at the end of the year, he was not at his best. However, he rode solidly in his first race in Oman and he is usually very strong in Tirreno-Adriatico. He wasn’t very good in Strade Bianche but the course suits him. His main job will be to support Contador and so he is an unlikely winner of the race. If something happens to the team captain, however, Kreuziger will be ready to step in and in general he has improved his level a lot since he joined Tinkoff-Saxo. With solid TT skills and excellent climbing legs, Kreuziger should do very well on this course.

 

Nieve is not the only Sky card. Leopold König now gets a rare chance to ride for himself at Sky and due to his good TT skills, this course suits him pretty well. Among the GC riders, he is one of the best time triallists as his excellent Tour de France TT confirmed and he is clearly a good climber too. His condition is a bit uncertain though. He rode strongly in Mallorca but in Oman he was far off the pace. If he has improved his level, however, he could finish on the podium in this race.

 

The next big Italian climber is Davide Formolo who faces his third big WorldTour stage race in this race. When he first did a stage race at the highest level, he finished in the top 10 in the Tour de Suisse and this was probably only the first of a string of very good results. It is no coincidence that the Italian press describe him as the next big Italian grand tour contender and that his team manager Jonathan Vaughters describes him as a future winner of the Giro.

 

Formolo is an excellent climber and last year an in-form Nibali was unable to drop him on the climbs at the Italian championships. This year he was riding very strongly in Mallorca but failed to reach his best form in Algarve. However, this race is his first big goal and we expect him to be one of the best on the climbs. Unfortunately, the course doesn’t suit him very well and he is likely to lose time in both time trials. Furthermore, he has been set back by illness. He is unlikely to win the race but this could be the event where he finally becomes a household name for the general public.

 

Przemyslaw Niemiec didn’t have his best 2014 season which was saved by a breakaway win in the Vuelta a Espana. For the 2015 season, however, he seems to be back on track and he is always very strong at this time of the year. He rode strongly in his first Italian one-day races where he excelled on the climbs despite working in service of others and he showed his class when he finished in the top 10 in Strade Bianche. He has improved his time trialling a lot and being one of the in-form riders, he should be a contender.

 

If Rodriguez is not up for the challenge yet, Daniel Moreno will be ready to take over. The Katusha rider was better than usual in San Luis and he had big hopes for the Tour of Oman. In that race, he faded in the queen stage though and it remains to be seen whether he has found back his San Luis legs. He is actually no bad time triallist and he is well-suited to the Terminillo. He may even pick up bonus seconds in stages 3 and 4. Unfortunately, he has often been set back by allergy at this time of the year and so he has never been very strong in this race.

 

***** Alberto Contador

**** Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran

*** Bauke Mollema, Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez, Thibaut Pinot, Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck

** Mikel Nieve, Roman Kreuziger, Leopold König, Davide Formolo, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Daniel Moreno , Wout Poels

* Daniel Martin, Sebastien Reichenbach, Michele Scarponi, Vasil Kiryienka, Giampaolo Caruso, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates,Alexis Vuillermoz, Damiano Caruso, Alessandro De Marchi, Patrick Konrad, Alex Cano, Gianluca Brambilla, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Rolland, Kanstantsin Siutsou