Surprisingly, Plateau de Beille didn’t create any differences between the main contenders who ended up being content with another status quo before they head into survival mode in tomorrow’s transitional stage. With a finish on a small ramp, stage 13 is a big goal for most of the puncheurs but it won’t be easy for their teams to control a stage that has been red-circled by many of the strongest attackers.

 

The course

The Pyrenees are now behind us and that usually gives the sprinters a few chances to shine in the transitional stages that bring the riders to the Alps. That won’t be the case in 2015 though as only one of the four stages between the two major mountain ranges could potentially end in a bunch sprint and even after a significant amount of climbing. Instead, the stages will offer plenty of room for attackers and puncheurs and two of the stages may even create differences between the GC riders.

 

While the Giro and the Vuelta have many finishes on short, steep climbs for punchy riders, the Tour organizers have often preferred traditional sprint finishes. That’s not the case in 2015 as the riders have included no less than four of these very characteristic finales. In the first week, the riders tackled the Mur de Huy, the Cote d’Ingouville and the Mur de Bretagne and in stage 13, it’s the short Cote Saint-Pierre in Rodez that will give the puncheurs a chance to shine.

 

At 198.5km, stage 13 is one of the longest of the entire race and it brings the riders from Muret on the outskirts of the Pyrenees to Rodez which has often been visited by the Tour peloton. As a true transitional stage, it brings the riders in a rather constant northeasterly direction before they turn slightly more to the north in the finale. It may be split into two parts as the first part takes place in the plains close to the Pyrenees while the second part brings the riders into the hilly terrain in Massif Central.

 

The first 100km offer very few challenges as the riders travel along flat roads with no categorized climbs. The highlight will be the intermediate sprint at the 92.5km mark. It is very slightly uphill and comes at the end of a long straight road in the city of Laboutarie.

 

After the feed zone, the flat terrain continues for a little while before the nature of the stage starts to change. A long gradual uphill section and a steep descent signals the start of the harder terrain and the climbing gets serious when the riders hit the category 3 Cote de Saint-Cirgue (3.8km, 5.8%) which summits at the 131km mark. From there, the roads are always up or down, with the category 4 climbs Cote de la Pomparie (2.8km, 5%) and Cote de la Selve (3.9km, 3.7%) coming at the 156.5km and 167km marks respectively.

 

Then an easier section leads to a small uncategorized climb that summits just 10.5km from the finish and may send several riders out the back door at the end of what could be a fast stage. From there the riders descend until they enter Rodez just 2.5km from the finish. Having turned left in a roundabout, they follow the flat, winding road along the Aveyron river until they get to the first of two consecutive hairpin bends with 570m to go. It signals the start of the uncategorized Cote Saint-Pierre (570m, 9.6%) where the finish line is located. After the final hairpin bend, the road bends slightly to the right, leading onto the 50m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

Rodez last hosted a stage in 2010 when Alexandre Vinokourov made an impressive solo attack on a late climb, holding off the peloton by 13 seconds before Mark Cavendish beat Alessandro Petacchi in a reduced bunch sprint. Three years ago Paris-Nice visited the city and here the riders tackled a steep category 3 climb just 2km from the finish. It was a finale for puncheurs, with Gianni Meersman beating Grega Bole and Lieuwe Westra in a reduced bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today was a brutally hot day and the temperatures got close to record numbers before it started to rain in the finale. Nothing is set to change as the riders embark on their journey to the Alps. Tomorrow will be another day with bright sunshine and a maximum temperature of 34 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction which will gradually turn to a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a tailwind or a cross-tailwind throughout most of the stage. In the finale there will be a cross-tailwind for several kilometres, also on the final rise to the finish.

 

The favourites

Everybody had been looking forward to the fireworks on the Plateau de Beille but surprisingly none of the favourites were able to make a difference. Tejay van Garderen was the only rider in podium contention who didn’t try a move but apparently they were so equally matched that no one was able to make a difference.

 

The most important factor was of course the impressive strength of the Sky team. Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas had the race firmly under control and neither Alberto Contador nor Nairo Quintana was able to break their stranglehold. What was more surprising was the fact that Chris Froome was unable to make a difference when he made his own attack. He never looked to be in trouble but briefly made himself vulnerable to counterattacks. In 2013 he faded in the third week and today’s stage will definitely have offered his rivals a glimmer of hopes.

 

Before we find out whether Froome is still at 100% - the uphill finish in Mende on Saturday should make us wiser – the riders will have to get through the first transitional stage. However, while the GC riders hope to get through the day as easy as possible and haven’t looked much at the profile, several riders have been looking forward to this stage since the start of the race. At least two groups of riders are keen to shine in tomorrow’s stage which will be hotly contested.

 

The short ramp in Rodez is tailor-made for Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb and they will be keen to finally take that elusive stage win. However, it won’t be easy for them to control the stage as another group of riders are equally eager. For strong riders who are not climbers or sprinters, this is one of only two chances to chase a stage win and so they will all try to go on the attack.

 

This sets the scene for a brutal start to the stage. Today Sky was able to shut the race down almost immediately but tomorrow that won’t be possible. The opening phase will be much more similar to what we saw yesterday when it took nearly two hours for the early break to be formed. With a tailwind, it will be a very fast start.

 

The opening part is completely flat and this means that luck usually plays a big role. However, at this point of a grand tour, things are different. A lot of riders are on their knees and are already in survival mode. With a very fast start, it requires very good legs to join the break and this means that the break will be very strong.

 

At the same time, the teams of the sprinters are fatigued and it won’t be easy for them to control the situation. Depending on the situation, they may change strategy and try to send riders on the attack. If that’s the case, the break will make it. Otherwise we can expect a very hard chase for the peloton all day.

 

The key team is of course Giant-Alpecin. This is one of two big chances for Degenkolb to win a stage and there is no doubt that they will go all in tomorrow. Their team still seems to be relatively fresh and they should be strong in the flat first part. However, if they don’t get any help, it won’t be easy for them to control the stage.

 

Their allies could be Tinkoff-Saxo. Until now, they have been riding fully in support of Alberto Contador. However, the Spaniard is unlikely to win the race overall and this means that Sagan is likely to have a bit more backing. Already yesterday the team made it hard to drop Greipel before the intermediate sprint and as the next three stages are not big mountain stages, there should be room to support the Slovakian a bit. Greipel is unlikely to score any points in the finale so if Sagan can win this stage, he has taken a giant step towards another green jersey.

 

Another interesting team is Orica-GreenEDGE. Michael Matthews is feeling a lot better and if he signals that he is ready to target a stage win, the Australians will back their captain. The stage could also be a goal for Edvald Boasson Hagen so if MTN-Qhubeka miss the break, they ate likely to chase too. Finally, Bryan Coquard also has his eyes on this one and so Europcar will also chase if they don’t have a rider in the break.

 

Overall there is a lot of interest in a sprint finish and so we expect it to come back together. However, much will depend on the composition of the break and if the sprint teams decide to send riders on the attack, the break definitely has a chance. Furthermore, the second half is pretty hard and so it won’t be easy to bring a strong break back.

 

Even though we expect an uphill sprint, we won’t have a complete field in the end. With a strong break, we will probably have a fast finale and the terrain is hard enough to make a difference. Hence, the selection could already be pretty big by the time we get to the sprint.

 

The final ramp is very short but pretty steep and this makes it an interesting mix. It is clearly too hard for the pure sprinters but too short for the lighter puncheuers and so the door is open for a pretty wide range of riders. Furthermore, it won’t be all about the legs as positioning will be very important for this kind of short ramp.

 

If it comes back together for a sprint, it is hard to look beyond Peter Sagan as the favourite. The Slovakian has returned to form after a disappointing time and has been remarkably strong. He last showed his good condition on the Mur-de-Bretagne and he usually survives the mountains better than the pure sprinters. He has even tried to go on the attack which is of course impossible for a green jersey contender.

 

Tomorrow’s finale is tailor-made for him. The final climb is so steep that it should actually be better suited to Ardennes specialists like Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez but due to its short length, it is much more about power. This tips the balance in favour of Sagan who is faster than those riders. Furthermore, positioning is very important for this kind of short climb and in that aspect Sagan is among the strongest. He is even likely to have a bit more support than usual even though the absence of Daniele Bennati will be felt. However, he should still be able to be among the first when they hit the climb. Last year he won a similar stage in the Tour de Suisse and he will be keen to finally break his Tour de France drought in Rodez.

 

John Degenkolb is still chasing that elusive first stage win. He was second on the cobbles and second in a stage one year ago and is very frustrated to have had so many near-misses. He is unlikely to win the sprint on the Champs-Elysees so he only has two opportunities left: tomorrow’s stage and stage 15. He is a much better climber than the pure sprinters and has come strongly out of the Pyrenees.

 

Degenkolb loves this kind of uphill finishes. In this year’s Dubai Tour he beat Alejandro Valverde in a similarly short but much steeper finale. He is tailor-made for this kind of sprint. His main challenge will be to be in a good position as he often finds himself a little bit boxed in. However, the harder finale means that the fight for position will be less intense and this favours him. Furthermore, he has a much better team to support him as Koen De Kort, Simon Geschke and Georg Preidler will all be there despite the late climbs. That’s a massive advantage. In a flat sprint, he is usually faster than Sagan while it is the other way around on this kind of uphill sprint. However, Degenkolb is definitely a big threat for the Tinkoff-Saxo rider.

 

Alejandro Valverde has clearly timed his condition a lot different than last year when he was flying at the start but suffered near the end of the race. This year he was far from his best in the first few stages but now he is close to 100%. He rode strongly in the Pyrenees and now suddenly finds himself in a position to finally reach that elusive spot on the podium.

 

While focusing on the GC, he also has a few opportunities to pick up stage wins and stages 12 and 13 are tailor-made for him. If he can win one of those stages, he will pick up valuable bonus seconds too. He is very strong in this kind of sprint and unlike Sagan and Degenkolb he benefits from the steep gradient. Of course he would have preferred the final climb to be longer but he has proved that he can do well on this kind of short ascent too. Furthermore, he is very great at positioning himself. He beat Sagan in the uphill sprint on the Mur-de-Bretagne and even though this is a completely different kind of finale, he could very well do so again.

 

Bryan Coquard loves this kind of uphill sprint and proved his class in the recent Route du Sud where he won in a similar kind of finish. He was among the best in Le Havre where he finished third after being beaten by Sagan in the sprint for second. Back then he made it clear that this stage was his big goal in the second part of the race and it is certainly true that it suits him down to the ground. Hence, it was a bit of a surprise that he spent some energy in the break in today’s stage and this might have taken the sting out of his legs. Furthermore, he seems to have been suffering a bit in the Pyrenees. Finally, he is not great at positioning himself and this has often been costly – just remember how he did a very impressive sprint in Paris-Nice but had to settle for second due to a poor position. However, he is one of the fastest in this kind of finale and this obviously makes his a potential winner of the stage.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen has returned to form after his broken collarbone. He has gradually become stronger and stronger and showed good condition yesterday when he was part of a four-rider break for almost an hour during the frantic first part of the stage. Tomorrow definitely has to be a big goal for him as it is one of his best chances to win a stage. He is strong in uphill sprints and has a formidable lead-out man in Reinardt van Rensburg who would even have been a contender himself in this sprint. If he can position the Norwegian perfectly, MTN-Qhubeka could take their first stage victory.

 

Greg Van Avermaet still doesn’t know how long he will stay in France as he will return to Belgium when his wife gives birth to his first child. However, he is definitely pleased that he is still in the race at this point as this stage is simply perfect for him. He has already been close on a number on occasions and is still riding strongly. He won’t get much team support as BMC are focused on Tejay van Garderen but he will definitely be allowed to take his chance in this stage. On paper, the likes of Sagan, Degenkolb, Valverde and Coquard are faster but with the steep gradients he has a bigger chance. Furthermore, he could decide to join a break if he realizes that it has a chance to make it to the finish.

 

Tony Gallopin secretly hoped for a good GC in this race but he has still been amazed by own performances in the mountains. His new position makes it impossible for him to go on his planned attacks but he could still take a win. Tomorrow’s stage seems to be his best chance as he is strong in this kind of sprints and he benefits from the steeper gradients as he proved on the Mur de Huy. Of course he would have preferred the climb to be longer and there are several riders that are faster than him. Furthermore, he is not very good at positioning himself. However, he is definitely an outsider and has a solid chance to pick up valuable bonus seconds.

 

Going into the race, this stage was a big goal for Michael Matthews. However, the Australian has been in survival mode since he crashed in stage 3. Now he is finally improving and he has been a bit more optimistic in the last few days. Today he told Letour.fr that this week offers a few good opportunities for him and he is definitely referring to stages 13 and 15. He is very strong in this kind of uphill sprint which is pretty similar to the one he won in Arcos de la Frontera at last year’s Vuelta. Due to his injuries, it will be hard for him to win but he is definitely a very strong outsider.

 

Zdenek Stybar has already won one stage in this race and he is ready for more in the second week which offers a few opportunities for him. This is probably his best chance. He is very fast in this kind of uphill sprint and he is excellent at positioning himself. However, his best opportunity is probably to join a breakaway. He is strong enough on the flats to make it and if he is in the right group, he will be an obvious favourite. Unfortunately, he has been suffering a bit the last few days.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have full focus on an in-form Robert Gesink but if the captain is safe, it would be stupid not to give Paul Martens a chance. The German is fast in uphill sprints. Last year he won the queen stage in the Tour of Belgium and he was close to the best in the stage to Arcos de la Frontera in last year’s Vuelta. He had a tough start to the race but has clearly been improving a lot. He even finished in the first group on the Mur-de-Bretagne and this makes him one to watch.

 

Davide Cimolai was very strong in a similar uphill sprint in Paris-Nice where he took the biggest win of his career and there is no doubt that this stage is a big goal for him. In the past he has often suffered a bit towards the end of a grand tour and he clearly suffered a bit in the mountains. The final climb may be a bit too steep for him and the finale may be a bit too hilly but if he is still relatively fresh, he will be up there.

 

Julien Simon had a tough 2013 season but in 2014 and 2015 he has been back to his best. He has been very strong in this race, finishing 18th on the two walls in the first week and riding in the breakaway to sixth on the Tourmalet stage. As a former winner of the GP Plumelec, he likes this kind of uphill sprint and is evidently in good condition. However, he is not always very good at positioning himself. Furthermore, there are faster riders than him so his best chance may be to join a successful breakaway.

 

Armindo Fonseca won the Tour de Vendee in 2014 and that race has a similar finish. Uphill sprints are where he really excels and there is no doubt that this stage is a big goal for him. Furthermore, he has been riding really well in this race after a difficult start to the season. Like Simon, his best chance may be to join a break as there are faster riders than him.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz has already won a stage in this race and should be able to do well in this kind of finish too. However, it is probably a bit too easy to suit him perfectly. Furthermore, he has been suffering from back problems in the last few stages. He is unlikely to win a sprint battle but could find himself in a successful breakaway.

 

Cannondale-Garmin have had a bad race until now and they will be keen to make amends. Last Ramunas Navarduaskas saved their race and the Lithuanian will have a chance to do so again in this race. He is currently riding very strongly and is fast in a sprint. Unfortunately, he positions himself poorly so he won’t win a sprint finish. However, he will be one of the favourites if he joins the right break.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Martin are both good puncheurs but this climb is probably a bit too short to suit them perfectly so they are likely to ride in support of Alexander Kristoff and Navardauskas respectively. The Norwegian will definitely try his hand in this sprint and he should be able to survive the late climbs. He loves uphill sprints but this is probably a bit too steep for him.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have three cards to play in the sprint. They can go for Stybar or they can ride in support of Matteo Trentin. The Italian has won stages in this race two years in a row. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be at his best at the moment. It will be hard for him to win a sprint but in 2013 he proved that he can win stages from breakaways too. Their final card is Michal Kwiatkowski. The world champion is obviously getting but after today's big effort, he is unlkely to go on the attack. He may try his hand in the sprint though.

 

Another good breakaway candidate is Jan Bakelants. Ag2r have no GC ambitions anymore so the Belgian will be free to take his own chance. He is clearly riding very well and he is a master in making it into the right breakaway and finishing it off. He is reasonably fast in a sprint and is strong in an uphill finish.

 

Sep Vanmarcke chose to spend some energy in the break in today’s stage which was probably a bad choice. Tomorrow’s stage suits him much better. However, he is currently riding extremely well and is climbing better than ever. He is brutally strong in this terrain and fast in an uphill sprint.

 

We haven’t seen much from Filippo Pozzato in this race and he doesn’t seem to be at his best. However, Rui Costa is now out of the race so he will have freedom to chase his own success. This is a very good stage for him and he will try his hand in the sprint if Cimolai has been distanced. However, he will probably also try to join a break.

 

Bob Jungels is in amazing condition at the moment. He is very strong in this lumpy terrain. Yesterday he spent an hour on the attack in the frantic opening part of the race and he will be keen to try again tomorrow. He is not a very fast sprinter but this kind of uphill finish will make it easier for him.

 

For other strong breakaway candidates, look out for Lieuwe Westra, Thomas De Gendt, Stephen Cummings, Pierrick Fedrigo, Jan Barta, Martin Elmiger, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Cyril Gautier, Paul Voss, Michal Golas and Florian Vachon.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Bryan Coquard, Edvald Boasson Hagen (sprint or breakaway), Greg Van Avermaet (sprint or breakaway), Tony Gallopin, Michael Matthews, Zdenek Stybar (sprint or breakaway), Paul Martens (sprint or breakaway), Davide Cimolai

Jokers: Julien Simon (sprint or breakaway), Armindo Fonseca (sprint or breakaway), Alexis Vuillermoz (sprint or breakaway), Alexander Kristoff, Ramunas Navardauskas (sprint or breakaway), Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, Matteo Trentin (sprint or breakaway), Michael Kwiatkowski, Jan Bakelants (breakaway), Sep Vanmarcke (breakaway), Filippo Pozzato (sprint or breakaway), Bob Jungels (breakaway), Lieuwe Westra (breakaway), Thomas De Gendt (breakaway), Stephen Cummings (breakaway), Pierrick Fedrigo (breakaway), Jan Barta (breakaway), Martin Elmiger (breakaway), Sylvain Chavanel (breakaway), Thomas Voeckler (breakaway), Cyril Gautier (breakaway), Paul Voss (breakaway), Michal Golas (breakaway), Florian Vachon (breakaway)