The transitional stages rarely leave any room for the GC riders to make a difference but one of them is difference. The classic finish in Mende hasn't featured since 2010 but has always been the scene of dramatic racing as the GC riders test each other on the brutally steep Montee Laurent Jalabert on the outskirts of the city.

 

The course

Most of the major climbs in France are located in either the Pyrenees or the Alps. That makes it hard for the organizers to make the transitional stages in the second week very varying but they always have the opportunity to venture into the Massif Central. The terrain in this part of France is deceptively hard and even though there are no mountains in the area, the many short, steep climbs and lack of flat roads make it perfect for bike racing.

 

In fact, one of the most famous climbs in France is located in this region. The Montee Laurent Jalabert in Mende may not have a long history in the race but it has grown to fame during the last 20 years where it has been the scene of some memorable battles. With its location at the midpoint between the Pyrenees and the Alps, it is the perfect opportunity for the GC riders to have a small battle before they return to the high mountains and even though this is not a day for huge time gaps, differences can be made on this day.

 

The stage brings the riders over 178.5km from the previous stage’s finish in Rodez to the finish in Mende. It can be split into three parts, with the first and third parts being hilly and the middle section being flat. From the start, the riders travel in a sourtheasterly direction in the lumpy terrain around Rodez and the first 44km are generally slightly uphill, with just a very small amount of descending along the way. One of the small ascents counts towards the mountains classification as the riders will go up the category 4 Cote de Ponts-de-Salars (1.3km, 5.8%) at the 20km mark.

 

After 44km of racing, the riders reach the summit of the Col de Vernhette but there won’t be any KOM points on offer. From here, the riders tackle a long descent to the Tarn river which they reach at the 58.5km mark. They now turn towards the northeast as they follow the river for most of the final part of the stage, meaning that the next 78.5km are flat. Along the way they will contest the intermediate sprint at the 78.5km mark on a slightly rising, winding road.

 

The difficult finale starts in the city of Saint-Énime at the 137km mark where the riders hit the bottom of the category 2 Cote de Sauveterre (9km, 6%). After a short flat section, they descend to some lumpy terrain before they go up the category 4 Cote de Chabrits (1.9km, 5.9%) whose summit is located just 9km from the finish.

 

There will be no room for recovery in the final part of the stage as the descent leads straight to the bottom of the category 2 Cote de la Croix Neuve/Montee Laurent Jalabert (3km, 10.1%) 4.5km from the finish. The first kilometre is the easiest at 8.3% while the final two kilometres are very steep at 10.5% and 10.9% respectively. There are a series of hairpin bends on the lower slopes while the second half is on a straight road. The summit is located 1.5km from the finish at the Aerodrome and the final part is first very slightly downhill and then very slightly uphill. There are a few sweeping bends in the finale before the riders take a sharp left-hand turn that leads onto the 480m finishing straight on a 7.5m wide road.

 

The Montee Laurent Jalabert was last used in 2010 when Joaquim Rodriguez and Alberto Contador distanced the rest and passed lone attacker Alexandre Vinokourov before the former won the two-rider sprint. In 20005, Marcos Serrano emerged as the strongest from a breakaway before Lance Armstrong, Jan Ullrich, Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans distanced the rest of the key GC contenders by 37 seconds, with Floyd Landis losing another 12 seconds. Most famously, it was used in 1995 when Laurent Jalabert completed a great solo ride by winning a stage on the climb. It has also been used in Paris-Nice thrice, with Contador taking solo wins in both 2007 and 2010. In 2012, Lieuwe Westra made a late attack to take the biggest win of his career, holding off Alejandro Valverde, Bradley Wiggins, Levi Leipheimer and Simon Spilak by 6 seconds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The last few days have been brutally hot but tomorrow should provide the riders with a respite. For once, it will be a relatively cloudy day and the temperature will only reach a maximum of 28 degrees. More importantly, there is a 70% chance of rain and thunderstorms in the finale so there is a very big risk that the riders will have wet roads in the finale.

 

There will barely be any wind. A very light breeze will be blowing from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the undulating first part until they get to the Tarn river. Here they will turn in to a cross-wind and soon after it will be a cross-tailwind for most of the final part of the stage. Just before the penultimate climb, they will turn into a crosswind and then there will be a cross-headwind and a crosswind on the final climb. There will be a headwind in the final 1.5km which are flat.

 

The favourites

It was hard to find a single rider that hadn’t mentioned his plan to go on the attack in today’s stage. Hence, it was a big surprise that the early break went away already in the first kilometre. Giant-Alpecin managed to control the stage firmly and apparently discouraged a bunch of tired riders. That made it a relatively easy start for the peloton which was welcome news for the GC riders who needed a day to recover after the tough days in the Pyrenees. Nonetheless, it ended as a very hard day as the strong break turned out to be very hard to catch and several teams had to dig very deep to set up a sprint for the puncheurs.

 

Tomorrow it won't get any easier. The transitional stages rarely produce any differences between the overall contenders but the finish in Mende always makes for a tough battle. The Montee Laurent Jalabert is brutally steep and even though it is not a stage where you can lose minutes, some GC rider will definitely lose time in today’s stage.

 

However, they won’t necessarily be in the running for the stage win. Many teams know that it is hard to win in the Alps and in Paris so they have marked the four transitional stages out as their biggest objectives. Today it came down to a battle for the puncheurs but tomorrow many teams hope for better luck for the breakaway as the stage may not be firmly controlled.

 

This means that we should have a tough start to the stage with lots of attacks. We are unlikely to see a repeat of today’s scenario where the break went straight from the gun. The first part of the stage is relatively hard and this makes it much harder for anyone to control the opening phase of the race. Furthermore, it means that only strong riders will be able to get clear.

 

On the other hand, the final part of the stage is so hard that many riders don’t have a chance to finish it off. Those riders have a much better chance in stage 15 whose finale is significantly easier. Hence, some may prefer to save energy for Sunday’s stage and leave it to some of the better climbers to go on the attack in tomorrow’s stage. Hence, we expect the break to have gone clear before the riders get to the flat middle section but the tough beginning means that it is likely to be a strong group.

 

Three teams have the key to determine the outcome of this stage. Cannondale-Garmin have done nothing to hide that they want to win the stage and their best card is Dan Martin. They also have Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky who can do well in this finale and will definitely try to put one of those three riders on the attack. However, if they miss the move, they will probably try to bring it back together for Martin to win a battle on the final climb.

 

The second key team is Katusha. Joaquim Rodriguez won this stage in 2010 and yesterday he made it clear that he wants to repeat that feat in 2015. He will probably try to attack but if he misses out, Katusha are likely to come to the fore. However, they don’t have the strongest team. Alexander Kristoff wants to save energy for Sunday and Marco Haller and Jacopo Guarnieri will be dropped in the hilly finale. That leaves it to Tiago Machado, Alberto Losada and Giampaolo Caruso to make sure that no one escapes on the final climbs which will be difficult even if their sprinters can keep things under control in the flat section.

 

Finally, the final part of the stage is tailor-made for Alejandro Valverde. However, Movistar have not done anything in the many stages that are suited to the Spanish champion as their main goal is the GC with Nairo Quintana. On the other hand, they know that it will be difficult to take the overall victory and another goal could be to have two riders on the podium in Paris. Valverde would be in a better position if he could pick up 10 bonus seconds in this stage. Finally, the next few stages are not big GC days so Movistar will have time to recover for the big battles in the Alps.

 

Much will depend on the composition of the breakaway. If Cannondale-Garmin and Katusha miss the move, it is probably doomed as they will combine forces to bring it back. As we expect Movistar to show a bit more interest in tomorrow’s stage too, the most likely outcome is that the break will be brought back. However, it is definitely not a foregone conclusion and if a big, strong group gets clear, it won’t be brought back.

 

Another challenge is the climbs in the finale. There are a total of three climbs inside the final 40km and they are perfect for attacks. If Katusha, Cannondale-Garmin and Movistar have been chasing all day, it won’t be easy to prevent anyone from escaping. We may even see Martin and Rodriguez try to join the late moves instead of waiting for the finale as their teams are not strong enough to control the finale. Hence, it won’t be impossible for a late break to make it to the finish.

 

The fight for position for such a short climb is always very big as it is costly to be too far back when the climbing starts. Hence, the pace will automatically be very fast on the penultimate climb and on the descent and this will make things selective. It will be a relatively small group that arrives at the bottom and this should make the fight a little less intense than usual.

 

In any case, the GC riders will have a big battle of the final climb. It is relatively short but history shows that the steep gradients can make a difference. Of course it suits the punchy guys more than the real climbers but at this point in a grand tour it is more about recovery than explosiveness. Furthermore, it is important to note that the final 1.5km are flat and this opens the door for late attacks. Not many teams will be able to have more than one rider in the select group that emerges at the top so if anyone manages to anticipate the sprint, it will be hard to bring it back. On the other hand, the GC riders will go full gas to gain time if one of the key contenders has been dropped and this makes a sprint more likely.

 

As said, we will put our money on the favourites to battle it out for the win but it’s almost 50-50 between the break and the peloton. If it comes down to the GC riders, we will out our money on Chris Froome who has proved to be the best climber in the race. He failed to distance his rivals on the Plateau de Beille where there was a pretty strong headwind but it must have given his rivals a slight glimmer of hope. However, Froome is still the strongest and tomorrow’s steeper gradients should make it easier to make a difference.

 

Of course Froome is not as explosive as the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez but he is actually very strong on short, steep climbs – just recall how strong he was on the Mur de Huy. This climb is even a bit longer and this should suit him even better. He is a very aggressive rider who rarely misses a chance to try to distance his rivals. We expect him to try again tomorrow and if he rides away, he will be very hard to catch in the final part.

 

His biggest rival will be Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard is very hard to drop on this kind of short, steep climb and he is by far the fastest of the favourites. He has had a slow start to the race as he was deliberately not at 100% at the start but now he is close to his best.

 

Obviously, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are climbing better than him but he has a big chance to get back even if he is dropped. If Froome is unable to get rid of Quintana, the Colombian will refuse to do any work and so a regrouping will take place. This makes a sprint finish more likely. However, the big challenge will be to prevent anyone from attacking in the final kilometre as Quintana is unlikely to do much work for his teammates. Valverde has lost several races due to such a scenario and it could very likely be the case again in tomorrow’s stage. However, no one will beat him in a sprint and so he has to be the favourite.

 

As said, Joaquim Rodriguez won this stage when it was last on the Tour map and he has done nothing to hide his ambition for tomorrow. He looked very strong in the early part of the race but a combination of a hunger knock and a crash took him out of GC contention. He bounced back with a great ride in the Pyrenees but we still have the impression that he is not at 100%. He may be suited to this kind of climb but we doubt that he will be strong enough to drop everybody else. He is fast in a sprint but he has no chance against Valverde in a flat finale. However, he is no GC danger so his best chance will be to escape in the flat second part or early or late in the stage.

 

The same goes for Daniel Martin. The Irishman has already finished second twice and is eager to break his drought. He was very strong at the start of the race but he is clearly no longer at the same level. That’s no big surprise as he is much more of a one-day rider than a stage race specialist. However, he is excellent at achieving his objectives and tomorrow’s stage is one of them. The way he joined the break in stage 11 proves that he is still relatively strong and he will have full support from his team. He is probably not strong enough to beat the favourites but if he joins the right break he will be hard to beat. It won’t be completely impossible for him to win a GC battle as he is no GC danger and so can attack in the flat finale. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and even though he is unlikely to beat Valverde in a sprint, he has a small chance.

 

Martin is not Cannondale’s only card. Ryder Hesjedal is clearly not at his Giro level but he is still riding relatively strongly. He always gets better throughout a grand tour and his goal is to win a stage in the final part of the race. Tomorrow’s stage is one of his best chances. He is strong on the flats and so has a solid chance of joining the break. He is relatively strong on short, steep climbs. Last year he won a similar stage in the Vuelta and he will be keen to repeat that performance.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have not had any luck in this stage but tomorrow they will be eager to shine in one of the stages that suit them best. Adam Yates has been riding extremely well and finished seventh in the first mountain stage and was in the top 10 on the Mur-de-Bretagne. He has seemed to be a bit tired the last few days but he has also been saving energy for the right day. Tomorrow’s finale is tailor-made for his punchy climbing skills and he is fast in a flat sprint. He has a chance both from a breakaway and in a battle between the GC riders as he won’t be heavily watched and so will be able to attack in the flat finale.

 

Ag2r have not had their best race but Romain Bardet bounced back with a great ride yesterday. Tomorrow they have two great candidates for a breakaway. Jan Bakelants has been ill but is recovering and he is very strong in this kind of terrain. He is a master in joining the right break and has the power to keep it alive in the flats. Today he proved that he is riding very well. The finale is not tailor-made for him but there is still a solid chance that he will be the best climber in the break. His teammate Alexis Vuillermoz has already won a stage and he loves this kind of finale. The main challenge will be to join the break but if he makes, he will be very hard to beat.

 

Things haven’t gone to plan for Vincenzo Nibali but the Italian is showing signs of progress. Yesterday he was able to stay with the best and he should continue his improvement. Tomorrow’s stage is not perfect for him but if Froome can’t drop Quintana, a small group will be together at the top. Nibali has the right aggressive instinct to attack and as he is no podium danger he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Geraint Thomas has been impressive in the first part of this race and he now secretly hopes for a podium finish. Chris Froome would love to give him a stage win and tomorrow could be the best plan. He is likely to be in among the best at the top and Froome will probably give him the freedom to launch a late attack.

 

Another GC rider who excels on this kind of short, steep climbs is Bauke Mollema. The Dutchman has finished in the top 10 in the three Ardennes classics and should be able to do well on the final climb. In stage 11, he attacked in the finale to gain a few seconds and if he is there at the top, he will try to do so again tomorrow.

 

There is no doubt that Robert Gesink has a similar plan. In fact, he had intended to do so in stage 11 but Mollema anticipated him. He is riding extremely well. Yesterday he suffered a puncture but did an impressive time trial in the headwind to nearly catch the GC riders. There is a big chance that he will be there with the best and then he will be ready to attach.

 

Another rider with similar plans is Samuel Sanchez. His main goal is to support Tejay van Garderen but this time that goal combines well with a possible stage win. If a group is together at the top, van Garderen wants someone to take the bonus seconds away from Valverde. This could open the door for Sanchez to try a move. The Spaniard is riding extremely well and he is very strong in this kind of finale.

 

This stage is perfect for Tony Gallopin. The Frenchman has been riding surprisingly well. It was no wonder that he suffered a bit in the first stage with several long climbs as that is not his terrain. Tomorrow’s stage should suit him a lot better. Of course he is getting tired but if he is there at the top, his time loss may be a blessing in disguise. That could open the door for a late attack and he also has the sprint skills to challenge Valverde,

 

The final rider that could try such a move is Pierre Rolland. He is not fast in a sprint and doesn’t like such a short climb. However, he is riding exceptionally well and he won’t be far off at the top. If a small group is together, he has the aggressive instincts to attack.

 

We have been very impressed by Serge Pauwels who is riding better than ever. He got close to a stage win in stage 11 and will be eager to try again. He even rode strongly in yesterday’s stage two. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race and he is very strong on the flats too and this should make it easier for him to join the break.

 

We have already pointed to Tanel Kangert as a strong contender for stage wins. Astana still hope for a top 10 finish with Nibali but their biggest goal is to win a stage. The Estonian was extremely strong in the first two mountain stages but seemed to have an off-day yesterday. However, he is suited to this stage as he is strong on the flats and on the climbs.

 

BMC are fully focused on Tejay van Garderen but Greg Van Avermaet also gets a chance to chase personal success. He was really impressive in today's stage and he may now decide to back his captain as he has achieved his goal. However, he plans to leave the race on the second rest day as his wife is set to give birth to his child and so he doesn’t have many chances left. This finale is a bit too steep for him but if he finds himself in the right group, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Bob Jungels suffered a bit from illness a few days ago but now he has returned to his best. He has been impressively strong in the first part of the race and he has the right skills for the undulating first part. The final climb is too steep to suit him perfectly but he could easily be the best climber in the break.

 

Rafael Valls was very strong in the first mountain stage but he has been far off the pace in recent days. However, he may just have been saving energy for a big break and tomorrow’s stage suits him well. If he joins the right break, he will be one of the strongest.

 

If a big break gets clear, Movistar want to have a rider there as they lead the teams classification. Winner Anacona, Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre are all riding well and are strong climbers who can finish it off in this kind of finale.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is getting better and better. He is not a pure climber but he likes this kind of short, steep climb. Furthermore, he is very strong on the flats and this should open the door for him to join the right break.

 

Julian Arredondo is tailor-made for this kind of climb but the Colombian has been far from his best. We don’t expect him to be strong enough to join the break in this kind of stage but his team will be keen to try. If he can make it, he is very strong in this finish.

 

Andrew Talansky is the third Cannondale-Garmin card and he has done nothing to hide his intention to attack. His best chance will come in the Alps as he is better suited to the longer climbs but if he joins the break, he will obviously be one of the best climbers.

 

For other strong breakaway candidates look to Edvald Boasson Hagen, Stephen Cummings, Bartosz Huzarski, Julien Simon and Steven Kruijswijk.

 

A joker is Peter Sagan. On paper this climb is too steep for him and we don’t expect him to be up there. However, he has overcome harder climbs in the past and this one is not too long. He won’t be able to keep up with the very best but if a regrouping takes place at the top he will have a chance in a sprint finish.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez (maybe from a breakaway)

Outsiders: Daniel Martin (maybe from a breakaway), Ryder Hesjedal (breakaway), Adam Yates (maybe from a breakaway), Jan Bakelants (breakaway), Geraint Thomas, Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sanchez, Tony Gallopin

Jokers: Pierre Rolland, Alexis Vuiillermoz (breakaway), Serge Pauwels (breakaway), Greg Van Avermaet (breakaway), Tanel Kangert (breakaway), Andrew Talansky (breakaway), Jakob Fuglsang (breakaway), Bob Jungels (breakaway), Rafael Valls (breakaway), Winner Anacona (breakaway), Jose Herrada (breakaway), Gorka Izagirre (breakaway), Michal Kwiatkowski (breakaway), Peter Sagan