Chris Froome defended himself well on the technical descent from the Col de Manse and showed that he won’t be easy to drop in the downhill sections. However, his rivals know that the Brit is very hard to beat on the climbs and so they will not miss the chance to test the race leader on the very difficult descent from the Col d’Allos when the series of decisive stages kick off with a tough challenge that is forecasted to be held in rainy conditions.

 

The course

The Alps and Pyrenees take turns to decide the race and after the latter mountain range crowned Vincenzo Nibali in 2015, the former will have the final word in 2015. Hopefully, the riders will enjoy their final rest day as there will be no room for recovery in the final five stages of which four are held in the Alpine heartland. Three of them include summit finishes and even though two of those are not very hard, the Alps will make a huge difference in the 2015 Tour de France.

 

The first of the summit finishes comes right after the rest day and it always makes the riders a bit uncertain as it is difficult to know how the legs will react after a day of recovery. This year they will get back into action with a historic stage that sees the race return to the Pra Loup to mark the 40th anniversary of the fall of Eddy Merckx as the Tour de France king. In 1975, Bernhard Thevenet took the yellow jersey by distancing the cannibal in a finale that included the combination of the Col d’Allos and the final ascent of Pra Loup and the exact same combination will feature at the end of stage 17.

 

The stage brings the riders over 161km from Digne-les-Bains on the outskirts of the Alps to a summit finish on the category 2 climb of Pra Loup. In the first part, the riders will head along mainly flat roads in a southeasterly direction before they get to the first climb, the category 3 Col des Leques (6km, 5.3%) which summits at the 40km mark. From there, the riders will travel in a northerly direction for the rest of the stage as they head into the Alps and hillier terrain.

 

The first part of this section is made up of two relatively easy climbs and subsequent descents. First the riders will tackle the category 3 Col de Toutes Aures (6.1km, 3.1%) and then they face the Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel (11km, 5.2%). The summit of the latter is located 65km from the finish and is followed by a short descent and a gradually rising road. Here they will contest the intermediate sprint at the 111km mark which is slightly uphill and technically uncomplicated. This part leads to the bottom of the main challenge, the category 1 Col d’Allos (14km, 5.5%). The first half is pretty easy but the final six kilometres are harder, averaging 6-8.5%.

 

The summit is located 22km from the finish and is the highest point of the entire race at 2250m above sea level, meaning that the altitude will play a role. The final part is first made up of a very long and very technical descent that leads straight to the bottom of the category 2 Pra Loup climb. It’s a relatively short 6.2km ascent with an average gradient of 6.5%. After an easy first kilometre, it’s very regular with a gradient of around 6% before it gets steeper in the finale with 8.5% for the final kilometre. There’s a long sweeping 180-degree turn in the finale before the riders reach the 80m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

The Pra Loup and Col d’Allos may not have been used for a major bike race for several years but most of the riders in the peloton got the chance to get acquainted with the challenges in the Criterium du Dauphiné where ASO put on the exact same stage. That was a major drawcard for the race and was a key reason for many riders to do the French race instead of heading to Switzerland for the Tour de Suisse. On that day, Romain Bardet accelerated over the top of the Col d’Allos and used extremely difficult descent to build an advantage of more than a minute. That was too much for his rivals who failed to bring him back and so he took the biggest win of his career. Further back, Team Sky set a brutal pace to whittle down the peloton before Chris Froome launched his expected attack on the final climb. The Brit seemed to be riding away with second place but a very strong Tejay van Garderen gauged his effort perfectly to bring the Sky leader back and even distance him by a few seconds. Apart from that, it has only been used again in the 1980 Tour de France when Jos De Schoenmacker won the stage.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Chris Froome has been very pleased with the warm conditions while Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana have been praying for rain in the Alps. It seems that the weather gods have listened to their wishes as tomorrow is likely to be a rainy, hot day. Throughout the entire stage, there is a 75% chance of rain, with the probability even increasing towards the end of the stage. The maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb will be 28 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part. Then there’s a short crosswind section before the riders turn into a tailwind and a cross-tailwind after the descent from the second climb. On the final climb, there will be a mix of head- and tailwind due to the many switchbacks but in the second half there will be a tailwind.

 

The favourites

Chris Froome heads into the decisive block of stages in the Alps in the best possible position. Based on recent history, it was always evident that the Brit would be the strongest climber but ASO had presented him with a series of challenges that could make him lose time before he even got to the mountains. However, he silenced his critics with a splendid performance in the first week and headed into the Pyrenees as the big winner while his rivals had already lost time. With a dominant performance in the mountains, he built a comfortable lead and since then he has gone into survival mode with an unusually defensive approach. Yesterday he again underlined that his descending skills are much better than most people think when he glued himself to Alejandro Valverde’s wheel on the way down from Col d’ALLOS.

 

However, the hardest block of racing is still to come and everything can always change in the third week of a grand tour. The four stages in the Alps offer his rivals a number of opportunities to put the race leader under pressure. They all know that it will be hard to beat the Brit if they bring him to the bottom of the final climb so they need to invent something earlier in the stages. With stages 19 and 20 being short and intensive, they are suited to long-distance moves and tactical games and the race also offers technical descents where Froome can be taken out of his comfort zone.

 

Most importantly, none of his rivals have given up hope. Unlike last year, Alejandro Valverde has timed his condition perfectly and as usual Nairo Quintana just gets better and better throughout a grand tour. The Colombian was highly encouraged by his ride on the stage to Mende where he seemed to have put Froome under pressure and this made him realize that his yellow dream is not over yet. Furthermore, Alberto Contador is clearly getting better and it even seems that he will get the rainy conditions that he has asked for.

 

Furthermore, there are chinks in the Sky armour. Peter Kennaugh has abandoned the race and Leopold König is still far from his usual level. Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels have both been climbing reasonably well but they have not been at their best. More importantly, Richie Porte has fallen ill and Geraint Thomas is clearly not riding as well as he did a week ago. In fact, he was nearly dropped on the Col de Manse which was a relatively easy climb that was made even easier by the headwind. One week ago it seemed that it would be impossible to isolate Froome but that’s no longer the case.

 

Froome may have an ally in Tejay van Garderen who can count on a strong Samuel Sanchez who is always getting better throughout a three-week race. The American is racing for third place, not the win, and will do his utmost to chase down Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde. Furthermore, Froome is in the fortunate position of having a big advantage over Vincenzo Nibali who is improving and one of the most uncontrollable riders in the peloton.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is undoubtedly the easiest of the Alpine challenges but it still offers the GC riders a perfect chance to put Froom under pressure. Col d’Allos is not a difficult climb but as the Dauphiné proved, the descent is extremely technical. With rainy conditions, it can do a lot more damage than the climbing and could potentially blow the race to pieces.

 

Furthermore, there are no flat valley roads between the final two climbs. That makes it possible for a brave rider to go on a solo attack on the descent without having to fear a long ride on the flats. Furthermore, the final climb is relatively short so Froome won’t have much ground to take back time. In the Dauphiné, Romain Bardet proved how such a move can be carried out in a successful way and almost all the top contenders will have been inspired by his ride.

 

With the finale tailor-made for an attack on the descent, it is probably the best chance for Vincenzo Nibali to win a stage. Furthermore, both Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo have indicated that they will try to isolate Froome in the Alps and this is a good opportunity, especially as there will mainly be a tailwind in the finale. The bonus seconds are a welcome addition in the fight for the overall victory so they can’t really allow another break to ride away with the win. The combination of their desire to make the race hard and win the stage means that this is likely to be a day for the favourites.

 

Nonetheless, it will be a fast and aggressive start. The stage offers a lot of mountain points so it will be important for KOM contenders to be part of the action. A lot of teams haven’t won a stage yet and with a flat start, it is possible for more riders to be active in the moves. However, many riders also have to gauge their efforts carefully as stage 18 is much better for a breakaway and so their best option may be to save energy for another day.

 

If the break hasn’t gone clear by the time we get to the first climb, it will be easier for the strong riders to get clear and we are likely to see a relatively big break. While Sky hope to get a big group clear as easly as possible, Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo will try to control things and make sure that the situation is manageable. Astana already tried to set Nibali up for the stage win in stage 16 until they finally surrendered and we expect them to combine forces with the Spanish and Russian team to chase behind the break and make the race hard.

 

We expect those three teams to set a fast tempo on the Col d’Allos in an attempt to isolate Froome. Roman Kreuziger and Michele Scarponi seem to have found some form and Rafal Majka is also riding reasonably well. That’s enough firepower to really trim down the group. If Thomas is again showing signs of weakness, it won’t be impossible that Froome is on his own before they get to the top.

 

With no valley between the two climbs, we expect the attacking to start already on the Col d’Allos. Froome will have to gauge his efforts carefully and he knows which riders to mark. He will be fully focused on Quintana, Valverde and Contador and those three riders will have a hard time getting clear. However, Froome is probably not too worried about Valverde as he feels comfortable that he will be able to distance the Spanish champion in the summit finishes. Hence, he may have to let the Spaniard go if he feels under pressure.

 

Vincenzo Nibali is no longer a podium contender and so he has much more freedom than his Spanish-speaking rivals. Yesterday’s stage clearly proved that Froome is willing to let the Italian go and he could benefit from that again tomorrow. He will probably try to make a Bardet move by attacking near the top of the Col d’Allos and then use his excellent descending skills to increase his advantage before hitting the final climb.

 

Nibali is clearly not at his 2014 level but his form is growing. He is no longer too far behind the best riders and he is strong enough to hold the peloton off if he has an advantage of 30-40 seconds at the bottom of the finale climb. Robert Gesink will do his utmost to follow the Italian but even though he is strong, the Dutchman seems to be one step below Nibali. If Gesink is the only rider doing the chase work, Nibali will be hard to catch before they get to the summit of the Col d’Allos. If Quintana is unable to drop Froome, the racing on the final climb will be pretty tactical and if that’s the case, no one is going to catch Nibali again. Hence, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

For Froome, the best response to the glimmer of hope that his rivals are sensing, would be to take another stage win. He is clearly not in the same superior class that he was in the Pyrenees but he doesn’t seem to have been put really under pressure. He always had Quintana under control on the climb to Mende and perfectly knows how to gauge his effort. To win the stage, he needs to follow the best on the descent which will be a challenge. However, he is a much better descender than most think. In fact, he has never been dropped by a key rival in a downhill section. On the Col de Manse, he glued himself to Valverde’s wheel and tomorrow he is likely to follow a similar tactic.

 

If he is still with the best at the bottom of the final climb, he will be hard to beat. We don’t think that Quintana is strong enough to drop the Brit who is clearly the fastest of the pair in a sprint. Furthermore, he is better suited to the relatively short climb than Quintana who usually needs longer and steeper climbs to really excel. If no one manages to anticipate the GC riders, we expect Froome to take another win.

 

As said, Chris Froome is probably not over concerned with Alejandro Valverde and he is definitely not willing to take too many risks to follow the Spaniard on the descent. There is little doubt that the Movistar rider will try both on the Col d’Allos and the descent and he is among the best descenders in the peloton. If Froome decides to stay a little more cautious, it won’t be impossible for an in-form Valverde to get an advantage. The relatively short final climb suits him perfectly and so it could be the day when he both moves onto the podium and wins the stage.

 

Nairo Quintana is clearly getting better and he could pose a serious threat for Froome in the final week. Tomorrow he will again try to distance the race leader and he will maybe make an attempt already on the Col d’Allos. However, Froome is unlikely to give him an inch and it won’t be easy for him to distance the Brit.

 

Much has been said about Quintana’s descending skills after he was dropped by Contador on the descent from the Col d’Allos in the Route du Sud. However, that was merely a result of cautiousness. In fact, the Colombian is a great descender who took his first major victories in Europe by descending excellently in the Vuelta a Murcia and the Criterium du Dauphiné. He will try to test Froome on the way down the Col d’Allos and maybe even has a chance to distance him. Furthermore, Froome always fades in the third week in a grand tour so it won’t be impossible for Quintana to beat the Brit in a direct battle.

 

Alberto Contador is clearly getting better but he is still not at Froome’s and Quintana’s level. He is unlikely to win the race but still looks strong for a top 3. To win tomorrow’s stage, he has the problem that his name is Alberto Contador. He has already lost a bit of time but Froome is unlikely to be willing to give any leeway. Unlike Nibali, he will have a hard time getting an advantage on the Col d’Allos and Froome will do his best to follow him on the descent from the main climb. Furthermore, the relatively easy final climb doesn’t suit him too well. On the other hand, he is not Froome’s main rival so if is under pressure, the race leader may be forced to led his Spanish rival go.

 

If a breakaway makes it to the finish, the prime pick has to be Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spaniard rode strongly in the first week but a combination of a hunger flat and a crash took him out of GC contention. In stage 12, he proved that his condition is pretty good and now he has set his sights on another stage win and the mountains jersey. For the latter objective, tomorrow is an important day but stage 18 is even more important. Hence, he may prefer to save energy for Thursday’s battle. However, that stage doesn’t have an uphill finish so it will be easier for him to come out on top tomorrow. He has been saving energy the last few days so if he decides to go on the attack and joins the right move, he will be very hard to beat. He may even use his Katusha team to control things and make sure that he can jump across to an early move on the first climb.

 

Thibaut Pinot is another excellent breakaway pick. The Frenchman has returned to form and is relishing the rainy conditions as he usually suffers in the heat. In stage 12, he proved that his condition is good as he managed to stay with the favourites in a very tough stage and he has been on the attack twice in the second week which proves that his legs are good. He is now aiming for a stage win in the mountains and tomorrow is a good day for him. Of course he is not a great descender but he has improved a lot and may make up for his deficit on the climbs with his great climbing skills.

 

Like Rodriguez and Pinot, Jakob Fuglsang has an eye on the mountains jersey. That means that he may prefer to save energy for Thursday but he can’t allow himself to be too picky when it comes to chasing a stage win. He is riding strongly at the moment but stage 12 proved that he is probably one step below Rodriguez. As the Spaniard will make him closely, it won’t be easy for him to make it into a group without the Katusha leader and that will make it harder for him to win the stage. Furthermore, he may be asked to stay with Nibali if the Italian aims for the stage win.

 

Romain Bardet won this stage in the Dauphiné and he would love to repeat that performance. Yesterday’s stage proved that he is now able to follow the best on the climbs and that’s encouraging for the Alps. His main problem is that he is now a top 10 contender and so will be marked by riders like Warren Barguil and Bauke Mollema. Hence, it won’t be easy for him to get into an early move or try to attack on the Col d’Allos or the descent.

 

Pierre Rolland is a bit further back and so may have more freedom than Bardet. The Europcar leader is one of the most aggressive riders and he has tasted lots of success in the Alps. He is probably aiming for long-distance attacks in stage 19 and 20 which have finishes where he has won in the past. On the other hand, he is very hard to hold back so if he sees an opportunity to attack early or late in the race, he won’t hold anything back.

 

Andrew Talansky has had a bad race. He is not able to follow the best and is not really in top 10 contention. He has desperately trying to join the right break but had bad luck to puncture out of the group on stage 14. Tomorrow he will again give it a try and he usually gets better throughout a grand tour. The long steady Col d’Allos suits him well so if he can hit the right break, he is likely to be one of the best climbers in the group.

 

His teammate Ryder Hesjedal is famously known for his skills to recover in a grand tour. The Canadian is clearly not at his Giro level but he made it into the break on stage 15 which had the hardest start until now. This means that he is not too bad and as he has been saving energy, he will be ready to go on the attack in the Alps.

 

We have been very impressed by Serge Pauwels in this race. He has proved to be one of the best climbers and he is still fresh. In fact he was in the break in both stages 15 and 16. Unfortunately, he punctured out of the group yesterday from a position where he would have been the favourite to win the stage. He will be keen to bounce back and he is strong enough to finish it off.

 

Ag2r will do their utmost to go on the attack in tomorrow’s stage and they have a number of good candidates. Jan Bakelants and Alexis Vuillermoz are both riding strongly. The former is not a pure climber but he defends himself well in this terrain as the climbs are not very steep. The relatively short final climb suits the latter well and he seems to have overcome his back problems. Finally, Christophe Riblon has finally found some form and he is always strong in the third week of a grand tour and knows how to finish it off.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have a number of good breakaway candidates. Their in-form rider is Laurens Ten Dam but he has fallen ill. Instead, Wilco Kelderman and Steven Kruijswijk will try to attack. The latter is clearly not at his Giro level and the former is suffering from back problems. Nonetheless, they are solid climbers and could be the best if they join the right group.

 

The final climb and the technical descent suits Daniel Martin perfectly. However, the Irishman has fallen ill and has been suffering the last few days. Nonetheless, he is still optimistic that he will be able to in a stage so if he recovers in time he will be dangerous.

 

Finally, Michal Kwiatkowski deserves a mention. The Pole is not at his best level but he is clearly improving. He has been in some strong breaks in the second week. Usually, the longer climbs don’t suit him but tomorrow could be a day for him. Col d’Allos is not very steep, he is an excellent descender and the final climb is relatively short.

 

For other good breakaway candidates, look to Louis Meintjes, Cyril Gautier, Adam Yates and Rigoberto Uran.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador, Joaquim Rodriguez, Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Jakob Fuglsang, Romain Bardet, Pierre Rolland, Andrew Talansky, Ryder Hesjedal, Serge Pauwels, Jan Bakelants, Alexis Vuillermoz, Christophe Riblon, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Kruijswijk, Daniel Martin, Michael Kwiatkowski