After a huge drama, Chris Froome secured the overall victory in the Tour de France and now just needs to get safely through 109.5km of mainly ceremonial riding. However, for the sprinters, a lot is still up for grabs as tomorrow is the day of the most prestigious sprint of the entire season.

 

The course

This year’s course may include a few novelties but there is nothing new on the final day of the race. Two years ago it was rumoured that ASO were planning to end the race on the top of Alpe d’Huez but those ideas were never turned into reality. As usual, the race comes to an end with a largely ceremonial stage to Paris where the sprinters will get the chance to battle it out in the most prestigious stage for a fast finisher on the Champs-Élysées.

 

Overnight the riders have travelled from the Alps to the southwestern suburbs of Paris for the final day of racing that follows a very traditional format. The stage usually starts a bit south of the capital and then makes a small loop in the area – often with one or two small categorized climbs to finalize the battle for the KOM jersey – before the riders head towards the city centre. Here they do a number of laps of the famous circuit on the Champs-Élysées, very often ending with a big bunch sprint.

 

This year’s stage starts in Serves-Grand Paris Seine Ouest just southwest of Paris and as usual the distance is rather short, even shorter than usual. At just 109.5km, the route makes a small loop in a westerly direction before turning around and heading east towards the city centre. After 10.5km of racing, they will reach the top of the final categorized climb of the race, the category 4 Cote de l’Observatoire (2.2km, 4.1%) Otherwise the terrain is almost completely flat as the riders pass through the suburbs to get to the centre of Paris.

 

In this year’s unusually short stage, the riders will reach the finishing city circuit after just 39.5km of racing and 1.5km further up the road, they cross the line for the first time. The stage ends with 10 laps of the 6.85km circuit that brings them up and down the famous avenue, a few more than usual. One of the novelties for the 2013 edition that was introduced to mark the 100th edition, was the fact that the riders went all the way around the Arc de Triomphe instead of doing a 180-degree turn in front of it. This adjustment to the circuit was maintained in 2014 and will again be in place in 2015 but the stage won’t finish late in the evening as it did two years ago. It will still finish later than usual though as the arrival is scheduled around 19.15 local time, just like last year.

 

The Champs-Elysées is cobbled and not flat as it ramps slightly upwards when one goes through the finish. The intermediate sprint will be contested at the highest point of the avenue on the third lap when 54km still remain. The final sprint is well-known by all the riders and pretty technical as there are two 90-degree turns just before the flamme rouge. Inside the final kilometre, two sweeping turns lead onto the short 400m finishing straight that is slightly uphill on a 9m wide road.

 

Last year Marcel Kittel took his second consecutive win on the famous avenue when he narrowly held off Alexander Kristoff in a close sprint. One year earlier he had broken Mark Cavendish’s winning streak in a fantastic battle against the Brit and André Greipel. At that point, Cavendish had won the stage four years in a row from 2009 to 2012. Before the Brit started to dominate the stage, Gert Steegmans, Daniele Bennati and Thor Hushovd won bunch sprints while the sprinters were last foiled in 2005 when Alexandre Vinokourov took a hugely surprising victory with a late attack.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The 2015 race will be remembered as a very hot and dry edition but unfortunately there is a risk that rain will destroy the party on the final day. There is a 75% risk of rain in the afternoon and even though it is likely to have stopped at the end of the stage, the cobbles are likely to be wet. The temperature will be juts 17 degrees which is markedly different from what we have had for most of the race.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction which that the riders will mainly have a crosswind in the first part before a tailwind will assist them in the final section that leads to the circuit. Here there will be a crosswind that will come from the left as they go up the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The penultimate stage fully lived up to expectations as it delivered one of the greatest finales of a grand tour in recent years. Chris Froome’s overall victory was never really in danger as he managed to stay within his limits and reduce his deficit but he will definitely be pleased that he rode attentively in the windy conditions in Zeeland. If it hadn’t been for that dramatic day in the Netherlands, Nairo Quintana is likely to have been the winner of the 2015 Tour de France.

 

At the same time, Alejandro Valverde finally achieved his big goal of finishing on the podium in Paris. Last year was expected to be his final chance as the team even asked Nairo Quintana to focus on other goals to allow their captain to give it one last shot. However, things came together in 2015 when he rode in support of his young teammate and he even played a key role in today’s stage where he attacked twice to prepare Quintana’s attacks. After a few days of rather defensive riding, Movistar finally went all in and even though they didn’t achieve the ultimate goal, they set the scene for an extremely exciting race.

 

The riders now just need to survive one stage before they can step onto the podium. One of the exciting things about bike-racing is its unpredictability but one race is celebrated and famous for its predictable outcome. While the Tour de France is loaded with surprises and unexpected outcomes, everybody knows what will happen on the final day which is a day of celebration and paying tribute to the brave riders that have completed the hardest race of the world.

 

There will be no surprises in the early part of the race which takes place in a festive and relaxed atmosphere. In the 9.5km neutral zone and in the long opening run through the Parisian suburbs, there will be plenty of time to chat to the colleagues, congratulate each other, taking the traditional photos of the top 3 riders and the distinctive jersey holders and even take a glass of champagne. Chris Froome will be riding prominently near the front and his rivals will all move up to congratulate him with the win and pay tribute to his great exploits. All the competitions have been decided so there will be plenty of room to celebrate everyone. The early category 4 climb will probably be the scene of some action as some of the KOM contenders usually take the chance to show themselves in a non-serious sprint. Romain Bardet will wear the jersey on behalf of Froome so it would be no surprise to see him near the front at this point.

 

This year the format of the stage has slightly changed. The opening, ceremonial part has been shorted significantly while more laps have been added in the finale. This means that there will less relaxed racing and more fast racing at the end.

 

When the riders get closer to Paris, things will gradually get more serious and it is traditionally the job of the race leader’s team to pick up the pace and make sure that things don’t get too lazy. Sky will patrol the front and as they get closer to the city centre, things will get more serious and the speed a lot faster.

 

By the time, they hit the Champs-Elysees for the first time, the pace will be fully up to racing standards and now the riders will have turned their race faces on to provide the many spectators with a very fast criterium-like race in the French capital. Very often, one of the veterans who is doing is last Tour, has been allowed to lead the peloton across the line for the first time but this year there’s no big farewell in store.

 

From there, the race will be a very fast affair and it won’t take much time to do the final 68.5km of the race. Even though they all know that their efforts are likely to be in vain, many riders are keen to go on the attack on the famous avenue and the racing is usually pretty aggressive.

 

Usually, a break goes clear in one of the first two laps but the sprint teams always make sure that it is not too big. They rarely gain much more than 30 seconds of advantage as the race is so short that no one dares to allow a few fresh legs to get too much leeway. Hence, we can expect to see Etixx-QuickStep, Lotto Soudal, Katusha and maybe Giant-Alpecin hit the front as soon as the break takes off and make sure that the break doesn’t get too far ahead.

 

In the past, Lotto Soudal have tried to send a rider to attack to avoid having to do any work but that is unlikely to happen in tomorrow’s stage. For the first time, they have the biggest favourite in this stage so they can’t take any risks. We should see a big alliance between the three big sprint teams and it is very unlikely that they won’t be able to control the situation.

 

What could make things tricky are the wet conditions. They clearly favour a breakaway and will make the racing a lot more nervous. For the GC riders, wet cobbles are unpleasant news but it will be no surprise if the organizers decide to neutralize time gaps in the treacherous conditions as they have done in the past. This will make things a bit safer and make it less likely that we will get a repeat of last year’s drama when Jean-Chirstophe Peraud crashed on the finishing circuit and suddenly saw his podium spot come under threat.

 

A few factors characterize the sprint on the Champs-Elysees that are well-known for most of the sprinters. First of all, it comes at the end of three weeks of hard racing which means that fatigue plays a big role and the hierarchy may not be the same as it was at the start of the race. On the other hand, the stage is so short and easy that the sprinters are usually all pretty fresh by the time they launch their sprint.

 

Secondly, there is a turn pretty close to the finish which means that lead-out and positioning are crucial and you can win a lot by being the first sprinter through the final turn. On the other hand, the avenue is very wide which means that it is hard to get boxed in and there is plenty of room to move up in the finale, meaning that top speed counts for a lot. Finally, the finishing straight is slightly uphill which suits some sprinters more than others.

 

André Greipel has never had much success in Paris. Two years ago he got close in a memorable sprint when he went head to head with Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish in one of the greatest battles in recent years. However, he has mostly been off the pace.

 

That’s not a big surprise. Compared to many rivals, he doesn’t seem to recover very well at the end of a grand tour. He has rarely been able to maintain the same kind of speed at the end of three weeks of hard racing and this has made things difficult in Paris.

 

However, it seems to be different in 2015. The German has been climbing really well in the Alps and has never been in danger of missing the time cut. He suffered a bit in the second week when he was even involved in a crash but one week ago he bounced back by winning stage 15 which was described as one of the hardest of the entire race. This proves that he is in great condition and it doesn’t seem to have changed in the third week.

 

Generally, Greipel has been put at the bottom of the hierarchy between the three top sprinters in the world but in this race it has been different. In most sprints, Greipel has been in a class of his own. In the intermediate sprints which are less about positioning and more about pure speed it has been clear that he is the fastest rider in the field.

 

Greipel will miss Greg Henderson dearly as he has often relied heavily on his lead-out train which has traditionally been the best in the field. However, he still has Adam Hansen, Marcel Sieberg and Jens Debusschere at his side which means that probably only Katusha are stronger. Furthermore, Greipel has been positioning himself much better than usual in this race.

 

On paper the slightly uphill sprint suits Greipel really well. He would have preferred a longer finishing straight and dry conditions as he is usually a bit cautious on wet roads. However, he seems to have overcome this weakness in this race. If his team can make sure that he gets through the final turn in a reasonable position, it is hard to see anyone preventing Greipel from winning another stage.

 

Until now, nothing has gone to plan for Alexander Kristoff. However, the Norwegian is usually one of the freshest at the end of a grand tour which was evident last year when he nearly beat Kittel in this sprint. He has trained specifically for the Champs-Elysees battle which is his biggest goal in the race. Furthermore, he has been riding well in recent days as he has been climbing solidly.

 

When it comes to pure speed, Kristoff is not as fast as Greipel and Cavendish but he has one big asset. In this race, his lead-out train has been the strongest. They have not always timed things perfectly but it has been evident that the combination Haller-Guarnieri-Kristoff has been the best. There is a big chance that Guarnieri and Kristoff will be the first two riders through the final turn. On such a short finishing straight, positioning is crucial and Kristoff loves this kind of uphill sprint. The Norwegian could turn his race around on the final day.

 

Of course Mark Cavendish is one of the favourites in a sprint that he has dominated in the past. However, the Etixx-QuickStep team has lost a lot of horsepower as Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski and Mark Renshaw are no longer there. This means that it will be left to Zdenek Stybar and Matteo Trentin to do the lead-out and they simply don’t have the power to match the best trains. There is a big risk that Cavendish will have to start his sprint from far back and with a short finishing straight, there is not much room to get back.

 

On the other hand, Cavendish is one of the fastest riders in the bunch as he proved with his win in Fougeres. Furthermore, he has been climbing amazingly well which again underlines that he recovers much better than most sprinters. It will all come down to positioning but if he can overcome that hurdle, he could take a fifth win in Paris.

 

John Degenkolb has been close on a number of occasions but he is still chasing that elusive stage win. There are faster riders than him in this field but like Kristoff he recovers extremely well. Furthermore, he is a great climber and has suffered a lot less in the mountains. Furthermore, he can rely on one of the best lead-out trains with Roy Curvers and Koen De Kort being the last two riders to bring him into position. It will hard for them to match Katusha but it won’t be impossible. If he is one of the first riders through the final turn, Degenkolb is one of the fastest in this kind of sprint.

 

Peter Sagan has again won the points competition but he is still chasing that elusive stage win. Tomorrow’s stage is his final chance but he has always had a hard time in Paris. He is not a pure sprinter and this kind of easy stage simply doesn’t suit him. This race has clearly underlined that he has been one of the fastest when the racing has been hard while he has been off the pace when it has been calmer. Furthermore, he has been positioning himself unusually poorly and he doesn’t have much team support. On the other hand, he is clearly still very fresh and that’s important at the end of a grand tour. Furthermore, he will relish the wet conditions which should provide him with an advantage in the final turns.

 

Arnaud Demare is in a completely place than he was 12 months ago. Back then, he was on his limit but this year he is clearly a lot fresher. He has been riding very well in this race but has not had many chances to sprint. He is one of the fastest riders in the peloton and loves this kind of uphill sprint. Unfortunately, he is not very good at positioning himself and with just Sebastien Chavanel for the lead-out, he will have a hard time against the best trains.

 

Bryan Coquard will have more support as Yohann Gene and Angelo Tulik are still at his side. He is in amazing condition and was even in the tough 50 in the tough mountain stage yesterday. However, this sprint is too easy to suit him well and the cobbles don’t do him any favours. Furthermore, he is not good at positioning himself and his lead-out train doesn’t have the firepower to match the best. Hence, it will be hard for him to win the stage.

 

When it comes to lead-outs, MTN-Qhubeka are among the strongest as they have Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen. It remains to be seen whether they will go for the American or the Norwegian but as the former has been suffering, the latter should be their man. He doesn’t have the speed to beat the best but with a great team to support him, he could be on the podium if things come together.

 

Last year Ramunas Navardauskas was a surprise third in this stage and he will definitely try his hand again. The Lithuanian has had a quiet race but seems to be getting better. He rode strongly in the break in today’s stage and is still pretty fresh. He is not a pure sprinter but likes this kind of uphill drag to the line when everyone is tired. He is not good at positioning himself but if he can overcome that hurdle he may create another surprise.

 

Davide Cimolai has already taken a couple of top 10 finishes and tomorrow he will be eager to finally crack the top 5. He has been riding well in the Alps and still seems to have the freshness to be a contender. He has Filippo Pozzato to support him but still misses botht the team and the speed to win the stage.

 

Michael Matthews is not a pure sprinter and so usually suffers in this kind of sprint. However, he has still managed to win the final Vuelta stage as he is usually among the freshest at the end of a grand tour. Injuries have made it a complicated race for him and he doesn’t have a strong team to support him so he has to rely fully on freshness if he wants to come away with a result.

 

Geoffrey Soupe and Christophe Laporte are the two Cofidis sprinters still in the race. Until now they have been supporting the former but the latter did really well in stage 15 when Soupe had been dropped. We expect them to again ride in support of Soupe and with lots of firepower for the lead-out, they should be able to do well.

 

Daniel Oss could be a joker in this stage. The BMC rider has been working as a domestique but tomorrow he will be keen to test himself in a sprint. He is not a pure sprinter but he is a strong guy with a decent turn of speed. He is often strong at the end of a grand tour when the big sprinters are fatigued. He won’t win the stage but a top 10 is definitely possible.

 

Other riders that could test themselves in the sprint are Sep Vanmarcke, Paul Martens, Gregory Rast, Jarlinson Pantano, Martin Elmiger, Paul Voss, Florian Vachon and Armindo Fonseca.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, Bryan Coquard

Jokers: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Ramunas Navardauskas, Davide Cimolai, Michael Matthews, Geoffrey Soupe, Christophe Laporte, Daniel Oss