Rohan Dennis upset the biggest favourites in the opening time trial and will get a unique chance to wear yellow in the firsr road stage. However, it is unlikely to be a pleasant experience as the windy Zeeland province will greet the riders with rainy conditions which will make it a hugely nervous affair. All is set for a bunch sprint but will everyone escape the crashes that are likely to split the field?

 

The course

The first week of the Tour de France has often been dominated by sprinters but this year there won’t be much room for the fast men to shine. In fact, the opening third of the three-week race offers only three chances for the pure sprinters while the final two weeks may not have a single bunch sprint before the race reaches Paris on the final day. Hence, they have to make the most of their few opportunities and they will get the first one on the second day.

 

However, it won’t be easy for them to get the chance to show their fast legs in the Dutch region of Zeeland. The first week is made up of a series of classics that include the features that characterize the big one-day races: short, steep climbs, cobbles and wind. The first road stage will test the riders’ ability to handle the latter challenge as Zeeland is famously known for its windy conditions.

 

In 2010, the Giro d’Italia had a dramatic stage in this part of the country on a day when echelon split the peloton to pieces and Cadel Evans lost the leader’s jersey. Since then, the Tour de France has visited the region once, also in 2010 when the opening road stage included a long section along the coast. However, the race finished in Bruxelles far from the sea and as it was a relatively calm day, it all came down to a traditional bunch sprint won by Alessandro Petacchi.

 

This year ASO have taken it one step further as the second half of the stage will take place almost entirely along the coast while the finish will be on the dams at Neeltje Jans. At just 166km, it is a relatively short affair that starts in Utrecht and consists of a southwesterly run. The stage is completely flat and will see the riders first travel to Rotterdam where the intermediate sprint is located at the 80.5km mark. They will hit the coastal road after around 115km of racing and then the final 50km will take place along the sea. Often the riders will have water on both sides of the road.

 

The finale is very straightforward. Just before the 5km to go mark, there will be myriad of roundabouts but after the riders have taken two turns in quick succession just before the four kilometres to go mark, the road is completely straight and flat. The riders will pass a bridge to reach the island of Roggenplaat with 3km to go, entering a bridge that brings them back to the Neeltje Jans island when they reach the flamme rouge. The finishing straight is 1380m long and on a 7m wide road.

 

As said, Zeeland hosted stages of the 2010 Giro d’Italia and 2010 Tour de France but none of them finished at the Neeltje Jans which will welcome a grand tour stage for the first time ever. Part of this stage featured in the first stage of the World Ports Classic where the riders travelled from Rotterdam to Antwerp. The wind partly split the peloton before Andrea Guardini took a narrow victory in a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Ever since it was announced that the Tour de France will have a flat stage with a finish in the Zeeland province, the GC riders have feared this particular day. The region is known as one of windiest in Europe and so everyone has been looking at the weather forecasts for a long time.

 

Most of the main contenders will take the start with fixed feeling. On one hand, the feared wind won’t really materialize but they will have to ride most of the stage in the rain. A total of 9mm of precipitation is forecasted at the finish and it is forecasted to fall between 12.00 and 21.00, meaning that the stage will be held in wet conditions. However, the heat that has plagued the last few days will disappear as the maximum temperature will be just 23 degrees around the time of the start.

 

There will be a moderate wind that will pick up and change direction during the stage. At first, it will be blowing from a northeasterly direction but it will quickly turn around to come from the northwest. This means that the riders will first have a tailwind but it will quickly become a crosswind from the right that they will have for most of the stage, including in the finale where it will be more of a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

The first road stage of the Tour de France is always extremely nervous but the organizers have done nothing to make it any better in 2015. Most of the riders have been riding in the Zeeland province during their career and they all know how windy this area can be. The riders who did the 2010 Giro will have it fresh in their memory and everybody will be on their toes to avoid missing a split. Meanwhile, the strong classics teams like Etixx-QuickStep and LottoNL-Jumbo will be prepared to grab an opportunity.

 

However, the summer months are less windy than the spring and so it was always unlikely that the riders would face a brutally strong crosswind that could split the peloton to pieces. Tomorrow’s wind won’t be overly strong but as it will be a crosswind, it will still create a very nervous atmosphere. The wet roads will only make things worse and so the stage will be terrible reminder of the kind of stress that will characterize the first week of the race.

 

Unless the wind is very strong, splits usually mostly occur when most of the peloton is unaware. That won’t be the case in tomorrow’s stage. In general, the Tour de France is such an enormous event that no one takes any risks and so it is much harder to split the field in this race than in any other event. Tomorrow the wind is probably not strong enough to produce splits but that doesn’t mean that we won’t see any splits. Crashes are very likely to happen and could create chaos on the road if some of the key riders are caught up behind the incident. Recent history is loaded with dramatic road stages in the first week of the race, just recall the chaos in the in Metz in 2012, the drama before the riders had even hit the first cobbles in 2013 and the crash-marred opening stages in 2011 and 2013.

 

The first part of the stage won’t be too stressful though. While rolling out of Utrecht, the riders will have a tailwind and there won’t be any dangers in the urban areas. Furthermore, everyone knows that this is a stage that will be firmly controlled by the sprint teams and so it is much wiser to save energy for later. In the past, many teams planned to attack in these flat stages but those times have now changed. Nowadays, most prefer to save their strength or focus on keeping their leaders safe. Finally, there is no mountains jersey up for grabs and so we can expect the break to get clear straight from the gun. Bretagne, MTN-Qhubeka and Europcar will be keen to be part of the action and even though they have lots of GC riders, LottoNL-Jumbo may also want to show themselves in front of the Dutch public.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have often shown that they don’t leave anything to chance in these flat stages, especially in a very short one like this. Hence, they will probably hit the front very early and not allow the gap to get out to much more than 3 minutes. Lotto Soudal are always working hard for the bunch sprints so they will also do their fair share of the work and if Nacer Bouhanni has recovered well, Cofidis will be up for the challenge too. It is more uncertain whether Katusha and Giant-Alpecin will contribute to the pace-setting. The former team also have a big part of the roster devoted to climbers and Alexander Kristoff is not the biggest favourite so they are likely to save energy for the finale. The same goes for Giant-Alpecin as John Degenkolb is not a favourite in this kind of flat sprint. BMC won't have to do much work and should be pleased to let the sprint teams set the pace.

 

Hopefully, the likes of Michal Golas, Julien Vermote, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Luis Angel Mate and Nicolas Edet have had a good night’s sleep as they can expect to spend most of the first part of the stage on the front. Meanwhile, the tension will gradually be rising as we get closer to the coast and the wind changes direction.

 

The first highlight comes at the intermediate sprint in Rotterdam after 80.5km of racing. The early break will pick up maximum points but the green jersey contenders have to make an effort to pick up the minor points. It will give a first indication of who’s interested in the points competition but we won’t see a full-on sprint. The differences between the points for the minor positions are relatively small so it is just important not to leave the sprint empty-handed while also saving energy for the finale. As the sprint comes relatively early, we expect Peter Sagan, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, NCer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb to all give it a go.

 

From there, the peloton will gradually get more nervous and the final 50km along the coast will be one huge fight for position. That means that the sprint teams may actually not have to do any real chase work as the mere battle is enough to make it very fast. All sprint and GC teams want to be near the front and with the wet roads, it will be stressful times. Hence, the break is likely to be caught relatively early and from there it will be impossible for anyone to escape.

 

As said, we don’t expect the wind to split the peloton so the real danger comes from crashes. It is hard to imagine that it won’t be a bunch sprint but it remains to be seen how many have avoided the carnage. Luckily the finale is completely non-technical but there are myriads of roundabout before the 3km to go mark. They could potentially be dangerous on wet roads and as they are outside the safe zone, it could be a drama. Those left in front will fight it out in a sprint but luck and a team to keep you near the front are very important factors in this stage.

 

Looking at the sprint, it is one for the real power sprinters. It is a long straight road where there is plenty of time to get up to speed. However, the road is not very wide so it will still be important to have a strong team and avoid getting boxed in. Finally, the road will be exposed to the wind so it will be very important to stay protected as long as possible and don’t be forced to move up on the right hand side of the road.

 

Last year Mark Cavendish crashed out of the race on the opening day, missing out on the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take the yellow jersey in his home country. This year he is hungry for revenge and claims to be in outstanding condition. He did one of the most impressive performances of his career at the British road race championships where he dropped classics hardmen like Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe in a true race of attrition and there is no doubt that he is telling the truth when he claims to be at the same great level he had when he crashed 12 months ago.

 

Due to Marcel Kittel’s absence, Cavendish is the fastest rider in the peloton and he has proved his speed several times this season which has been a very successful one until now. However, his main asset is probably his lead-out train. In 2011, 2012 and 2013, Lotto Soudal completely dominated the sprint finishes in the Tour de France and clearly proved that their train is the best in the world. However, they failed to reach the same level in 2014 and unless they can get back up to speed, Etixx-QuickStep should be stronger.

 

Cavendish will have Matteo Trentin and Mark Renshaw to do the final part of the lead out and fast riders like Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar to do the work before then. Importantly, Tony Martin will keep them near the front in the potentially dangerous zone with the roundabouts. That’s an impressive amount of firepower that makes it less likely that Cavendish will be involved in any crashes. If they can deliver Cavendish on the front, no one is going to come around him.

 

Even if Lotto Soudal turn out to be stronger, Cavendish will still have a solid chance. Renshaw is an extremely capable lead-out man who knows how to anticipate the situation and move into the right position if they are passed by a stronger train. Cavendish is good at staying on his teammate’s wheel and if he is in a reasonable position at the start of the sprint, he has the speed to win.

 

André Greipel has won a stage in every single Tour he has done and he would love to get the race off to a perfect start. As said, his lead-out train was formidable a few years ago but last year things didn’t work. However, they lost Greg Henderson early in the race and with the Kiwi back they should be a lot stronger.

 

The train has been slightly changed as Jens Debusschere will take Jurgen Roelandts’ position in the chain Adam Hansen-Marcel Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel. The young Belgian doesn’t have Roelandts’ experience but that is not necessarily a big setback. Sieberg is the rider who launches the train around the flamme rouge and Debusschere just has to follow his wheel. He definitely has the speed to do a good lead-out inside the final kilometre.

 

Greipel goes into the race with lots of confidence as he has dominated the sprints he has done in July. His team claims that he is better than ever and nothing suggests that they are wrong. He has not gone head to head with Cavendish yet in 2015 and so it remains to be seen who’s the strongest at the moment. In the past, Cavendish has been that small bit faster but if the Lotto train works perfectly, Greipel is definitely able to beat the Brit.

 

The main challenge for Greipel will be to stay with his teammates. The less technical finale suits him but on wet roads, he is not very good in the fight for position. Very often he gets lost in the finale and in the hectic first week of the Tour the risk is even bigger.

 

Much has been said about Alexander Kristoff who would love to win a stage on his birthday. However, this stage is not perfectly suited to the Norwegian who prefers longer, harder stages. His best chance comes later in the race when fatigue has started to set in.

 

Nonetheless, he will give it a go and he has several assets that make him a potential winner. First of all, he is great at positioning himself which is of crucial importance in the hectic first week of the Tour. The train Paolini-Haller-Guarnieri-Kristoff is very strong. The latter three have worked really well all year and the addition of Paolini’s experience only makes them better. They are unlikely to challenge for the supremacy against the two strongest teams but Kristoff could very well start his sprint from second position. Furthermore, he is unlikely to get caught out in any splits and he will only benefit from the fact that the nervousness could make the race harder. He is not as fast as Cavendish and Greipel but if he can force them to a long sprint in the wind, he has the pure strength to beat them.

 

Nacer Bouhanni is probably the only rider with the speed to challenge Cavendish and Greipel but the Frenchman is not at 100%. He crashed at the French championships and was a possible non-starter for most of the week. However, he claims that his rib is not bothering him much and that it won’t be any excuse for him. On the other hand, his team says that it may be hard to challenge for the wins in the first week.

 

Bouhanni is in outstanding condition as he proved in the French championships and he has finally got his legs going after a slow start to the season. He won two stages in the Dauphiné and took an easy sprint win in Halle-Ingooigem. His lead-out train has been bolstered significantly but still doesn’t have the power to match the best ones. However, Bouhanni is very good at positioning himself and is always near the front. If Geoffrey Soupe can drop him off in a good position, he should be up there. The power sprint doesn’t really suit him but if he can time things right and is recovered from his injuries, he has a chance to open his Tour account.

 

John Degenkolb has taken over the role as lead sprinter from Marcel Kittel and will be given the chance in the flat stages too. Like Kristoff, he is not a pure sprinter and usually needs a harder race to excel. However, he likes the long power sprints so this one should not be too bad for him.

 

Giant-Alpecin don’t have their best lead-out train as they will be missing Tom Veelers and Degenkolb who are usually the penultimate and fourth last rider in the  train respectively. Ramon Sinkeldam is brought in as a replacement to fill the spot in front of Koen De Kort who will be the final lead-out man. However, they will have a hard time against the strongest trains. Furthermore, Degenkolb very often gets lost in the hectic finales which was evident in the Tour de Suisse where he didn’t get a chance to sprint. There is a big chance that he will miss out completely but if he can stay with his team, he has the speed to be among the best.

 

Peter Sagan deserves to be mentioned even though this sprint is not really for him. The Slovakian doesn’t have the speed to beat the pure sprinters and this finale is way too uncomplicated for him. His main goal will be to finish in the top 3 to pick up as many points as possible. However, unexpected opportunities could occur for the Tinkoff-Saxo rider who has shown tremendous condition in the Tour de Suisse. If crashes and chaos rule in the finale, Sagan knows how to find his way through the carnage and if the faster riders are set back a little, he may be able to create a surprise.

 

Arnaud Demare is one of the fastest sprinters in this race but he has not had the ideal season. In fact he has only taken two wins in the Tour of Belgium and a combination of bad luck and poor positioning has set him back throughout the entire year. In this race, FDJ’s main goal is to keep Thibaut Pinot safe and Demare will only get the chance if the leader is safe. However, William Bonnet and Sebastien Chavanel are solid lead-out riders and Demare is one of the fastest riders in the field. Unfortunately, his poor positioning probably means that he will start his sprint too far back to realistically aim for the win.

 

Sam Bennett is one of the rising sprint stars who beat most of the elite in the Tour of Qatar earlier this year. Most recently, he rode strongly in the Bayern Rundfahrt and there is no reason that he has the speed to challenge the very best. However, his preparation has been destroyed by illness and he only really has Zakkari Dempster to support him in the finale. That may be a bit too little in these hectic stages but if he can find a good position, he has the speed to finish on the podium.

 

Bryan Coquard had a very good Tour de France debut last year and this year he is aiming for his first stage win. However, he needs a harder race to really excel as he is not very good at positioning himself. His lead-out men Angelo Tulik and Yohann Gene are simply not strong enough to match the best and Coquard is not good at keeping up with them. There is no doubt that he has the speed to challenge the best but he needs to do a very good ride in the hectic finale to be in a position to show it off.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is not a pure sprinter but he will definitely try his hand in the sprint. In the Dauphiné, MTN-Qhubeka dominated the lead-outs with Tyler Farrar and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg but things will be different here as all the best lead-out trains are present. However, the Norwegian still has one of the best trains and he has lots of experience. He won’t win the stage but he could sprint himself into the top 5.

 

Ramunas Navardauskas is a dark horse. The Lithuanian may not do the sprint as Cannondale are mostly focused on their GC riders but if he is given his chance, he will be ready to strike. Last year he did some very good sprints in the second half of the race and was even third in Paris. He probably needs a harder stage to shine but the non-technical finale suits him. He positions himself very poorly but on a long finishing straight he can do the long efforts that could make him dangerous.

 

An outsider is Fabian Cancellara who just needs to pick up a few bonus seconds to take the lead. He won't win a bunch sprint so his best chance will be to make a late attack. It won't be easy in this non-complicated finale but if crashes have split the field, he may be able to create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: Nacer Bouhanni, John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare

Jokers: Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navardauskas, Davide Cimolai, Fabian Cancellara