The second stage of the race turned out to be just as dramatic as many had expected - and feared - and many riders will be licking their wounds tonight. However, the nervousness won't be any less evident in tomorrow's third stage which is another classic where the steep finish on the Mur de Huy offers the puncheurs the chance to gain a few seconds.

 

The course

After what was a windy and crash-marred drama, the series of classics continues on the third day when the riders will be tested in a mini edition of the Fleche Wallonne. In the past, ASO have often sent the riders into classics terrain in the first week and while the cobbled stages have taken most of the attention, small Ardennes classics have also been on the menu. In 2006, it was the famous Cauberg that ended a mini version of the Amstel Gold Race and this year it is the brutally steep slopes of the Mur de Huy that will send the thoughts back to April and Fleche Wallonne.

 

The Mur de Huy is one of the most famous climbs in Europe and with its location in Belgium close to the French border, it is somewhat of a surprise that it has never hosted a stage finish in the past. This year it will finally make its debut in the world’s biggest race and with its iconic profile it turns stage 3 into one of the most prestigious of the race. The puncheurs and Ardennes specialists have all red-circled this stage as one of their biggest opportunities to win a stage and many of the GC contenders did this year’s edition of Fleche Wallonne to get a chance to do the finale of this stage at race pace.

 

This year ASO changed the finale of Fleche Wallonne by including the tough Cote de Cherave less than 10km from the finish. This made the race even more selective and made for an aggressive finale. ASO have decided to follow the same formula in stage 3 of the Tour de France as the finale will be completely identical to the one that provided a great show a few months ago. The main difference between the two races is the fact that the Tour stage is much shorter and has much easier first part.

 

At just 159.5km, the stage brings the riders from the major city of Antwerpen to the finish at the top of the Mur de Huy in the city of Huy. Antwerpen is located in a completely flat part of Belgium and so the first half of the stage is an almost flat southeasterly run towards the Ardennes. The terrain gradually gets hiller but it is in the city of Andenne at the 105km mark that the real climbing starts,

 

Here the riders will go up the first categorized climb of the race, the category 4 Cote de Bohisseau (2.4km, 5.5%) that is known from Fleche Wallonne. The next part of the stage is undulating and leads to the city of Havelange where the riders will contest the intermediate sprint and turn around to head in a northerly direction to the finish in Huy. The sprint is quite challenging as there’s a tough climb summiting 1.5km from the line and the final 500m are also uphill at a gradient of around 4%.

 

From there 31.5km remain and they are very challenging. After an easier first part, the riders hit the category 4 Cote d’Ereffe (2.1km, 5%) that is also known from Fleche Wallonne. Then they descend to the outskirts of Huy where they start the small loop on the western outskirts of the city that sees them go up the category 4 Cote de Cherave (1.3km, 8.1%). It’s a pretty steep climb on a narrow road with cobbles at the bottom. The summit is located just 5.5km from the finish and is followed by a non-technical descent that leads to the flat road along the Meuse river with 4km to go. The riders will follow that road until they go through two roundabouts, with the final of those leading onto the lower slopes of the Mur de Huy (1.3km, 9.6%) which is a category 3 climb. After an easy start, the climb gets brutally steep, with its toughest section of 19% coming just a few hundred metres from the top where some of the greatest puncheurs have taken some of their biggest victories. The finishing straight is just 150m long and 5m wide.

 

As said, the Mur de Huy has never hosted a stage finish in the Tour before but it has been the scene of the finale of Fleche Wallonne for more than 20 years. In April, Valverde won the race for the second year in a row, beating Julian Alaphilippe and Michael Albasini in the uphill sprint after having edged out Dan Martin and Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014. In 2013 Daniel Moreno took the biggest win of his career while Joaquim Rodriguez was the fastest in 2012. In 2011 Philippe Gilbert won the race during his dominant run of classics success while Cadel Evans and Davide Rebellin won in 2010 and 2009 respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first two days of the Tour de France have offered brutal conditions for the riders. First they had to deal with extreme heat for the time trial and today wet roads and wind made things dangerous in the opening road stage. Tomorrow they will be back on dry roads for what seems to be a nearly perfect day for a bike race.

 

All day it will be bright sunshine and yesterday’s showers took away the worst heat. Tomorrow the maximum temperature in Huy will be a much more pleasant 27 degrees. There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind in the first part of the stage before they gradually turn into a crosswind as they approach the Ardennes. In the finale, they will mainly have a crosswind but there will be a headwind on the Cote d’Ereffer and the Cote de Cherave. There will be a crosswind on the descent from the latter and then there will mainly be a tailwind in the final 3km.

 

The favourites

Most of the GC riders have described the first week as being all about survival but it also offers a few opportunities to actively try to gain a few seconds. The first of those came in the opening time trial where Thibaut Pinot and Vincenzo Nibali were the big winners among the podium candidates. However, today's windy stage created much bigger gaps and unlike yesterday, Chris Froome and Alberto Contador suddenly finds themselbes in pole position.

 

The next opportunity comes tomorrow where the brutally steep Mur de Huy is set to create the next small differences between the overall contenders. However, this one suits a completely different type of riders than the opening time trial and the windy drama. In those stages, Joaquim Rodriguez was completely on the defensive and lost quite a bit of time to the best on the flat power course in Utrecht and in today's carnage. The same happened for Daniel Martin who is not suited to a flat time trial. For them, the Tour starts tomorrow and they will be keen to prove their good shape, get back on track and start to take back some of the time they lost on the opening day.

 

Many of the riders know the course for today’s race very well. Three of the four climbs have featured in the course for Fleche Wallonne on numerous occasions and the Mur de Huy has been the scene of the final for more than 20 years. The Cote de Cherave was a new addition to this year’s course but the favourites for the stage and many GC contenders were all present in April to check the course at race speed.

 

However, the peloton also includes several riders who never even consider lining up at Fleche Wallonne. The sprinters have probably never done the Mur de Huy in the past but tomorrow they will get their first taste of its steep slopes. Some of them will take it easy but others will try to dig really dip. John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff may have been forced to have shelve their dream of the yellow jersey but otherwise they would have to dig deep to stay in contention. Things are different for Peter Sagan who will definitely tru to stay close to yellow in a finale which has proved to be too steep for him when he did Fleche Wallonne two years ago.

 

While the puncheurs and classics specialists are ready to strike, most of the GC riders only hope to get safely through the stage. None of the Fabulous Four are really suited to this punchy finale and even though it offers them a chance to gain a few seconds, they will probably be pleased just to get it out of the way. The same goes for riders like Thibaut Pinot, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Pierre Rolland, Laurens Ten, Dam, Steven Kruijswijk, Tejay van Garderen, Richie Porte, Daniel Navarro and Andrew Talansky who all nead longer climbs to excel.

 

Today’s stage was another testament to the extremely nervous atmosphere that always dominates the Tour de France. Tomorrow there will be less wind and dry roads and this should make the first part of the stage a bit calmer. Unlike today, we are likely to see a bit more aggression in the early phase as a lumpy profile always offers a bigger chance for a breakaway. Furthermore, there will be a mountains jersey up for grabs. However, the early break is likely to be formed relatively early and will probably include riders from team like Bretagne, Europcar, Cofidis, MTN-Qhubeka, Bora-Argon 18 and Lotto Soudal who is riding on home soil. Look out for Thomas De Gendt who is targeting a stint in the mountains jersey.

 

When the break has been formed, Trek will have to do the early part of the pace-setting even though they know that it will be hard for Cancellara to defend the lead. However, other teams will probably want to lend a hand. This stage is one of the biggest goals for Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Martin and there is no doubt that Katusha and Cannondale-Garmin will do their utmost to bring it back together for an uphill sprint. It will be interesting to see what Movistar do: on one hand Alejandro Valverde is one of the big favourites, on the other hand they are fully focused on Nairo Quintana. If the Spanish team contribute to the chase, it will be an indication that Valverde has a more important status in the team than they have indicated. With Quintana's time loss, a stage win may now be even more important.

 

The intermediate sprint will be an interesting one. The escapees will pick up maximum points but the green jersey contenders will sprint for the minor positions. It is a tough uphill sprint that is perfectly suited to the likes of Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Bryan Coquard and Alexander Kristoff who all hope to gain points on riders like André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. Furthermore, they don’t have to save energy for a final sprint so we could see a real fight this time.

 

In the finale, things will again be extremely nervous. Everybody wants to be in good position when the climbing starts and especially for the Cote de Cherave and the narrow, cobbled roads in the finale. This will again make the risk of crashes enormous and most will remember how many riders hit the deck in Fleche Wallonne. However, the sprint teams will be less active in this stage and this may create a bit more room near the front.

 

Many riders know that they won’t win an uphill sprint and so we can expect attacks on the Cote de Cherave. Lotto Soudal have made this stage a big goal as they are riding in Belgium. Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens won’t win a sprint so they will try to attack on one of the late climbs. Wellens used a similar tactic in Fleche Wallonne but didn’t get any company. This time he hopes to be part of a small group that will get to the Mur with a small advantage. Cyril Gautier, Thomas Voeckler, Nicolas Edet, Sylvain Chavanel, Jerome Coppel, Paul Voss, Pierrick Fedrigo, Serge Pauwels, Zdenek Stybar, Simon Gerrans and some Astana riders could all try their hand in the finale. The same goes for Pierre Rolland and maybe Wilco Kelderman who were among the big losers today.

 

However, it will be very hard to keep the bunch at bay as the fight for position and Katusha, Cannondale-Garmin and may Movistar will make sure that the speed is high. Hence, it is most likely to come down to an uphill sprint. Everyone knows what to expect in this finale. The climb is way too steep for the sprinters and this is a finale for the punchy climbers who have that powerful acceleration when the gradients are brutal.

 

Two riders are usually one step above the rest in these finales: Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez. Valverde has won Fleche Wallonne twice in a row and was stronger than Rodriguez in April. Rodriguez won the race in 2012 and would have had two wins on his palmares if he had not been up against the superior might of an unbeatable Philippe Gilbert in 2011.

 

Back then, Rodriguez was very hard to beat in these finishes. The Spaniard took numerous stage wins in the Vuelta who have always had loved these very steep finales. In those stages, he was usually one step above Valverde who is definitely faster in a flat sprint and a “normal” uphill sprint. However, when the roads are very steep, Rodriguez has usually had an unmatchable punch.

 

There is no doubt that Rodriguez no longer has the level he had a few years ago. However, he still managed to win the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he put his punchy climbing skills on show on some very steep ascents. Furthermore, this year was his first real chance to sprint on the Mur for a couple of years as he was set back by crashes in both 2013 and 2014. Finally, he did not have the best preparation for the Ardennes as he fell ill in the final part of March.

 

However, Rodriguez has had a perfect preparation for this race and he looked much stronger in the Dauphiné that he has usually done. This indicates that he is on track for a very big Tour despite today's time loss. We can’t put too much emphasis on his poor TT as he always suffer immensely in short, flat time trials at the start of grand tours and he has never liked the windy conditions. He will miss Daniel Moreno dearly but Giampaolo Caruso still has the skills to make the trademark lead-out for Rodriguez in this finale. The Katusha rider is our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival is obviously Valverde. The Spaniard would love to make it three in a row on the Mur and he has been in a class of his own in his last two sprints up the climb. This year things are slightly different as the main goal for Movistar is to keep Nairo Quintana safe and if the Colombian gets caught up behind a crash, most of the team will have to wait. However, if things are in control at the bottom of the Mur, Valverde will play his cards and he doesn’t need any kind of support. In the past few years, he has been brutally strong to just ride on the front and mark every attack himself. Hence, he has managed to avoid getting boxed in. That may be a bit more difficult in this race where all the best climbers are at 100% of their condition but Valverde has the strength to do it.

 

Valverde had a poor Dauphiné but that was a deliberate plan as he doesn’t want to be fatigued in the third week. He showed reasonable condition at the Spanish road race championships but the line-up for that race was not very competitive. His time trial wasn’t outstanding and it seems that he is trying to peak a little later this year. Furhermore, he was riding surprisingly porrly in today's stage where he missed the splits twice. Things indicate that he is not at 100% and this could be what prevents him from winning this stage.

 

Daniel Martin was hugely frustrated to crash out of Fleche Wallonne in April and now he is gunning for revenge. He has made this stage the biggest goal of the race and he is perfectly suited to this kind of finish. In 2014, he finished second in Fleche Wallonne and he has always been among the best in uphill sprints on steep roads.

 

Martin has had a great build-up to this race. Despite limited training due to a broken rib, he rode impressively in the Dauphiné and he did a good time trial compared to his usual standard. On paper, he is not quite as explosive as Rodriguez and Valverde but he might be in better condition. If he can avoid his usual crashes and be a in a good position at the bottom which will definitely be the hardest part, he could win this stage

 

Among the riders from the Fabulous Four, only one rider has a real chance to win this stage. Vincenzo Nibali and Nairo Quintana are definitely not explosive enough but Chris Froome has slightly different characteristics. The Brit has often done pretty well on short, steep climbs in grand tours and is definitely punchier than his GC rivals. Furthermore, he is simply the best climber of the quartet.

 

Froome did a very poor time trial which comes on the back of a poor spring season. In fact nothing really suggests that he is back at his 2013 level which he would probably need to beat the specialists in this kind of finale. On the other hand, Froome has not focused on his time trialling in the preparation and there is a solid chance that he will be a lot stronger on the climbs. We doubt that it will be enough to win this stage but it won’t be impossible for the Brit.

 

Trek have two cards to play in this stage. There biggest chance to win the stage is probably Julian Arredondo for whom Fleche Wallonne is the dream race. The punchy Colombian made his debut in 2014 and did reasonably well despite visa problems having delayed his arrival from his home country. However, he has been far from his best level since his great performance at the 2014 Giro and his 2015 classics campaign was a disappointment. However, he showed signs of progress in the Tour de Suisse where he was strong on the shorter climbs and so he should do well in this finale.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE also have a few cards to play in this stage. While the Mur is too steep for Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini has always been strong on this climb. The Swiss has been on the Fleche Wallonne podium twice, most recently in April when he sprinted to third. He won’t get many chances to ride for himself in a finale in this race and apart from breakaways this is his only opportunity to win a stage. On paper, the shorter distance and easier run-in to the climb should suit him.

 

Another strong outsider from the Australian team is Simon Yates. The Brit has had an amazing 2015 season with top 6 results in three of the biggest WorldTour stage races of the year. He is not going for GC in this race and has his eyes on stage wins in the mountains. After his surprisingly good time trial, he might already give it a go in this stage which suits his punchy climbing skills really well. The main challenge will be to be in a good position but if he can overcome that hurdle he will be a contender.

 

Bauke Mollema did the time trial of his life in the opening stage and he has been one of the most consistent classics riders for a couple of year, nearly making it into the top 10 in all of them in 2013 and 2014. This year he was set back by health issues but now he is back in form. He really likes these steep walls as he proved in the 2011 Vuelta and with his fourth place in last year’s Fleche Wallonne. It was a bit of a surprise to see him o the back foot in today's stage but tomorrow he should be up there.

 

Wilco Kelderman is another Dutchman who should do well in this kind of finale. After a slow start to the season, he won the Dutch time trial championships to signal his return to form and he underlined his good condition with an excellent 9th place in the time trial. Today he had an extreme amount of bad luck and is now out of the GC battle. He is a very versatile rider with a strong punch in an uphill sprint and should be among the best in this stage if he has recovered from his injuries and can find the motivation after today's setback. Another chance would be to make a late attack.

 

A strong outsider is Alexis Vuillermoz. The Ag2r youngster is a really punchy climber who was in the top 10 in Fleche Wallonne earlier this year. His main goal will be to keep Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud protected but if they are safe at the bottom of the final climb he may be given his own chance.

 

Bardet should also be strong in this finale as he is a great rider for the Ardennes classics and has a decent punch. He is not as explosive as the best but he is more suited to this kind of challenge than most of the other GC riders. He won’t win the stage but he should be among the best.

 

Warren Barguil is not here to ride for GC and instead he will try to win a stage. However, he may now chance his mind after he made the split in today's stage. He usually gets better and better during a grand tour and this stage may come a bit too early. However, he is pretty powerful in an uphill sprint and could do well here. Another chance is to launch a late attack. If he can get to the bottom of the Mur with a small advantage, he will be hard to catch.

 

For other potential attackers, we will highlight Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Julien Simon, Cyril Gautier, Simon Gerrans and Zdenek Stybar (however, the latter may be keen on saving energy for the cobbles). Pierre Rolland may also be keen to make up for today's time loss and everybody knows about his aggressive approach.

 

Finally, the fight for the yellow jersey deserves a mention. Fabian Cancellara, Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin are only separated by seconds. The climb is too steep for all of them to be up there with the best but they will al try to limit their losses. On paper, Dumoulin and Martin are the better climbers and it will be hard for Cancellara to defend the lead. Dumoulin finds himself in the best position as he is actually very strong in the Ardennes classics and Fleche Wallonne is the only of those races that doesn't suit him well. Martin will have to dig deep to stay with the Dutchman but there is a good chance that Giant-Alpecin will find himself with the yellow jersey at the end of the stage.

 

IMPORTANT UPDATE: Rodriguez crashed twice in today's stage and hurt his knee. He is worried by his injuries and may not be at 100% tomorrow.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin

Outsiders: Chris Froome, Julian Arredondo, Michael Albasini, Simon Yates, Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Alberto Contador, Romain Bardet, Rigoberto Uran, Alexis Vuillermoz, Wilco Kelderman (sprint or breakaway), Warren Barguil (sprint or breakaway), Tony Gallopin (breakaway), Tim Wellens (breakaway), Julien Simon (breakaway), Cyril Gautier (breakaway), Simon Gerrans (breakaway), Pierre Rolland (breakaway)