Chris Froome confirmed that he is the favourite to win this year's Tour de France and moved into yellow. While today's stage was a chance to gain time, he could find himself on the defensive tomorrow when the riders tackle the highly anticipated stage over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles. Vincenzo Nibali hopes to repeat last year's splendid ride while some of the biggest specialists are ready to go for glory in one of the most prestigious stages of the race.

 

The course

After stages in the wind and the hills, the series of classics continues with one of the most anticipated stages of the race. For the second year in a row, ASO have decided to include some of the famous cobbles from Paris-Roubaix and like last year one of the flattest stages of the race may be the one that creates the biggest time differences between the overall contenders.

 

In the past, the cobbles have only featured on the route in in select editions and last year they were back after a four-year absence as the race was set to commemorate the anniversary of the start of World War I. Race director Christian Prudhomme defended their inclusion, claiming that the most complete rider also needs to handle the rough surface in Northern France. However, he made it clear that a cobbled stage shouldn’t be on the course every year but after last year’s rainy drama that was widely regarded as the best race of the entire season, he has been unable to resist the temptation to include the paves for the second year in a row.

 

Like last year the ride on the cobbles is the stage that has received most pre-race attention and all the main favourites have been in Northern France to do a recon ride. Nairo Quintana has even followed the formula used by his teammate Alejandro Valverde in 2014 by riding Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke to get a first taste of the pave at race speed. However, none of the contenders have been at the start of Pairs-Roubaix which is regarded as being too dangerous for the grand tour riders.

 

Like last year a lot of GC riders immediately expressed their concern. With so much at stake, the nervousness and battle for position will be fierce and as most of the riders have very little experience in this kind of racing, crashes are bound to happen. Due to this stage, a lot of riders go into the race without making too many long-term plans as they first need to see how they get through the battle on the cobbles.

 

Last year’s stage was a very short one but this year’s ride over the cobbles will be much more like a real Paris-Roubaix as the distance is much closer to the one of a real classic. This year the riders will tackle a 223.5km course that brings them from Seraing on the outskirts of the Belgian Ardennes to the French city of Cambrai. However, there will be just 7 paves with a total length of 13.3km compared to the nearly 30 sectors and more than 50km of cobbles in the queen of the classics and in this stage the paves are almost all located near the very end of the stage which is very different from Paris-Roubaix where the final half of the race is littered with the brutal surface. Last year the riders tackled 9 sectors with a total length of 15.4km and the last pave was located just 6.5km from the finish while this year’s cobbles end 13km from the finish line.

 

The stage consists of a long southeasterly run in one of the flattest parts of the area. The first part of the stage is almost completely flat and only features the famous citadel in Namur whose cobbled slopes are well-known from the GP Wallonie which is held in September. It is a 2km category 4 climb with an average gradient of 4.8% which will mainly serve as a target for riders targeting an early stint in the mountains jersey. Then it is back into flat terrain for the final part of the stage where the only danger comes from the wind and the dreaded cobbles.

 

The riders will get a first taste of the cobbles on the Pont-a-Celles a Gouy-lez-Pieton pave (1800m) which comes at the 103.5km mark but it will mainly serve as an appetizer. Just before they reach French soil, the riders will contest the intermediate sprint at the 137km mark which is located in the city of Havay, is slightly uphill and comes at the end of a long straight road.

 

Back in France, the race will get serious with 46km to go when the riders hit the second pave and from now on there will be little room for recovery. First up is the Famars sector (1200m) followed by the Verchain-Maugre sector (1600m) just 5.5km later. The Saulzoir sector (1200m) comes with 36km to go and then there is a longer section of tarmac before the riders get to the Saint-Python (1500m) sector. It is followed by the Queivy (3700m) sector which starts with 23.5km to go and is the most difficult of the 7 paves. Finally, the riders will tackle the Carnieres sector (2300) with just 13km to go before they get to the flat asphalt road that leads to the finish.

 

Last year’s finish was spectacular as the stage ended just in front of the Arenberg forest but this year the surroundings will be less famous as the finish line is located in the centre of Cambrai. The riders will follow a long straight road until they take a left-hand turn with 1600m to go. Then there are 90-degree left-hand turns with 600m and 500m to go before the riders get to the finishing straight which is slightly uphill and on a 7m wide road.

 

Last year’s stage on the cobbles was held in rainy conditions and was a huge drama. Chris Froome crashed for the second day in a row and left the race before they had hit the pave. Lots of favourites were set back by crashes while Alberto Contador rode surprisingly poorly in the harsh conditions. Instead, it was the Astana trio of Lieuwe Westra, Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang and the Belkin pair of Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom who shone, with Fuglsang, Nibali and Boom even distancing the likes of Sagan and Cancellara after Vanmarcke had punctured out of the lead group. In the end, Boom escaped to take a solo victory on a memorable day in France.

 

Before the 2014 race, the cobbles were last used in 2010 when the exact same finish was used. Back then, however, there were fewer kilometres of pave and the final section was farther from the finish. Nonetheless, the selection was pretty big but it was mostly caused by a big crash that took Frank Schleck out of the race on one of the first sectors. Thor Hushovd won the sprint from a 6-rider group that contained GC contenders Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck while a small group with Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Bradley Wiggins arrived 53 seconds later. Alberto Contador was also in that group but a late mechanical saw him lose another 20 seconds while Lance Armstrong had a lot of bad luck and finished with the first big group. In 2004, the cobbles were also on the course and back then it spelled the end for Iban Mayo’s podium aspirations on a day when Jean-Patrick Nazon won a bunch sprint.

 

Cambrai has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The most important aspect of last year’s huge drama was probably the weather. While even an experienced rider like Fabian Cancellara has never done a single edition of Paris-Roubaix in wet conditions, they suddenly got it all in the Tour de France. Rain and mud made things extremely dangerous and caused several crashes that made things even worse for the GC riders who were not used to the rough surface.

 

Except for Vincenzo Nibali the GC riders hope for better conditions in this year’s race and they seem to get what they prefer. The weather forecasts predict a cloudy day in Northern France with a relatively high maximum temperature of 28 degrees. However, it is unlikely that there will be any rain, with the risk being biggest towards the end of the stage.

 

However, it will be relatively windy. After a calm start, the wind will gradually turn from a southerly to a westerly direction and pick up significantly. This means that the riders will first have a crosswind but later a rather strong headwind. Importantly, there will be a crosswind for most of the time when the riders tackle the cobbles in the finale before they turn into a headwind at the end of the final sector. Those will be the conditions until the final two turns that lead onto the finishing straight where there will be a tailwind.

 

The favourites

As we claimed in our preview yesterday, Chris Froome was the one of the GC favourites with the best chance to win on the Mur and if he hadn't let Tony Gallopin create a gap, he would probably have taken it all. However, he won't be too worried by the near-miss as he gained more time on his key rivals than most had expected. Furthermore, Alberto Contador showed that he is still not at 100% after the Giro while Rodriguez proved that he has no reason to be worried about his knee.

 

However, things could quickly change completely. Everybody feared the Dutch crosswinds on stage 2 and the narrow roads in the Ardennes on stage 3 but it is nothing compared to the nervousness and apprehension that has been built ahead of stage 4. There is no single stage that has got as much pre-race attention as the rough ride over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles. The GC riders have hardly done a single interview without being asked about their expectations for the ride to Cambrai and it has been given much more attention than even the biggest mountain stage. Furthermore, every ambitious rider has done a recon ride on the pave and Nairo Quintana has even copied Valverde’s formula of riding cobbled classics to prepare himself for the strains.

 

However, there is a vast difference between Paris-Roubaix and a cobbled stage in the Tour. In the Queen of the Classics all teams ride for the win and most of the field is made up of specialists who excel in those conditions. In the Tour de France, more than half of the field consists of riders that would never even consider riding Paris-Roubaix. Furthermore, most of the teams are only focused on getting their GC riders safely through the stage. Only a select few specialists will be riding for the win. Furthermore, the fact that some are riding for time gains or a stint in the yellow jersey means that the tactics are completely different from what we see in April.

 

Compared to last year’s stage, this year’s battle on the cobbles is less difficult. The total length of the paves is shorter, they are located farther from the finish and the sectors are less difficult. Furthermore, the riders seem to get dry conditions which will probably reduce the number of crashes significantly. There will mainly be a headwind which will also make it less selective but there will be several crosswinds sections in the finale. That will make it even harder for the tiny climbers to keep up with the powerful specialists.

 

It will be a huge battle that will create big time differences between the overall contenders. In fact, the difference may be made more by the fight for position and crashes than by the cobbles themselves as everybody wants to be in a good position at the start of the second sector and it will be a huge sprint to the entrance. Last year the major splits happened even before the riders got to the cobbles and Chris Froome had abandoned the race before they had even done a single pave. Apart from the team time trial, this is probably the stage where team support plays the biggest role and riders have been selected almost solely due to this stage.

 

Among the overall contenders, Vincenzo Nibali is widely tipped to be the winner. The Italian turned out to be very strong on the cobbles and last year he laid a solid foundation for his overall victory with an amazing ride. He took a beating in the crosswinds and will be eager to strike back. Nobody knows how strong Chris Froome will be on the cobbles but on paper he should be able to deal well with this stage, especially as he has a very strong team at his side. Alberto Contador also has a formidable team and managed to enter the first section in the perfect position 12 months ago. However, he rode surprisingly poorly and could again find himself on the defensive. Nairo Quintana definitely has the biggest reason to be worried which was made evident when he missed a split in the crosswinds in stage 2. Furthermore, his team is probably the worst for this stage as even his biggest engines have never really featured at the pointy end of Paris-Roubaix. Among the outsiders, Tejay van Garderen should be able to do well as he has a strong team and the same goes for Rigoberto Uran. Most of the French riders hope to limit their losses while Bauke Mollema will hope to gain some time.

 

A flat stage usually gets off to a slow start as it rarely makes much sense to go on the attack. However, things are different on the cobbles. The best wat to avoid the huge amount of stress and the many crashes is by joining the early breakaway. The first big selection is likely to be made on sectors 6 and 5 (the first two sectors in the finale) and in the battle for position to get there. If the break can stay clear until they have exited these sectors, the smaller field will have calmed down a bit and this may be a way to make it into the front group. Furthermore, many teams want to have riders in the front for tactical reasons as they can provide valuable assistance later in the race – just recall how important Lieuwe Westra was in 2014. However, this stage is a very long one and with a headwind, it will cost a lot of energy to stay in front all day.

 

This means that we will be off to a fast start with several attacks and it will probably take a bit of time for the break to be formed. This time it is very unlikely that one of the major teams will be allowed to have a rider in the break and Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably not allow Astana to again send a rider on the offensive. A huge tactical game will be going on before the elastic finally snaps. We expect a relatively strong group but with no riders from the top teams.

 

With a headwind, the first part of the stage is likely to be a complete contrast to what we can expect later in the stage. There won’t be any risks of splits and everybody wants to save energy for the finale. The same goes for the riders in the break and so it will probably be a slow first part of the stage. Meanwhile, the escapees will go for the points in the only KOM sprint which is unlikely to play much of a role.

 

Sky will set the early pace but don't need to bring the break back. Hence, teams like Katusha, Etixx-QuickStep and Giant-Alpecin may be forced to work to keep the situation under control. However, the gap will melt away when things get nervous in the finale.

 

The first sector comes around the midpoint of the stage but it will play no major role. It comes too early to make a selection but everybody still wants to be near the front. Hence, we can expect the first big fight for position as they approach the cobbles and we may see crashes split the field. However, there will be more straight roads and headwind after the pave and so things will probably come back together.

 

The intermediate sprint will be the next highlight. The escapees will pick up maximum points while riders like Peter Sagan, André Greipel, Bryan Coquard, Nacer Bouhanni and Mark Cavendish will move ahead to pick up as many points as possible without going full gas. It will be interesting to see whether John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff will do the sprint. They have their eyes on the stage win and find themselves in a difficult position after they failed to score in stage 2. Hence, they may prefer to save it all for the finale.

 

The real fight will start when the riders approach the cobbles and the crosswinds with around 58km to go. From there, it will be a warzone where everybody wants to be in front and hit the cobbles in the best possible position. We can again expect crashes to split the field before we have even entered the first of the final sectors. As soon as they hit the pave, it will be a gradual elimination where splits will constantly occur until only the strongest – and luckiest – are left.

 

In the end, it is likely to come down to a select group of contenders that will mostly include specialists and maybe a few GC riders, with Nibali of course being the most likely to be part of the action. That’s when the battle for the stage win starts. While the GC riders will focused on time gains and losses, the specialists who have made the selection will be riding for the stage win.

 

Being the reigning Paris-Roubaix champion, John Degenkolb is naturally one to watch and this is one of his biggest goals of the entire race. The German will have chances in the hard sprints later in the race but this is probably his biggest chance. Last year Niki Terpstra also went into the stage as the reigning Roubaix champion but he was always unlikely to win the stage as he needed a harder, longer race to really shine.

 

However, Degenkolb has a much bigger chance. With his fast sprint, the big German doesn’t need to arrive alone at the finish and is likely to be the fastest if it comes down to a battle from a small group. Furthermore, his team doesn’t have any real GC ambitions in the race – even though Warren Barguil may be about to change his mind after his strong ride yesterday – and Degenkolb will not have to wait for anyone. He has no other interest than trying to win the stage and will be completely free to chase his goals.

 

Degenkolb has quickly developed into maybe the strongest rider on the flat pave. People tend to think that he won Paris-Roubaix due to his fast sprint but that was definitely not the case. In fact he has matched every single key attack in the two latest editions of the race and no one has managed to drop him on the flat cobbles in Northern France since 2013. Furthermore, he is very strong in the fight for position and it was only a bad crash that destroyed things for him and nearly ended his race in 2014.

 

It is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to drop Degenkolb on the pave. Furthermore, the fact that some teams will be riding for time gains, means that it is more likely to come down to a sprint from a select group. Degenkolb is one of the fastest in a sprint after a hard race and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival will be Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian has many of the same characteristics as Degenkolb and produced an amazing ride over the cobbles to win the Tour of Flanders in April. However, he has not had the same kind of success in Paris-Roubaix and has always suffered a bit more on the flat pave.

 

Nonetheless, he is still among the best in this terrain and it should be easier for him to stay with the best in a less hard race. He is very strong in the fight for position and doesn’t have to wait for Rodriguez. Degenkolb is usually slightly faster than Kristoff but when the sprint comes at the end of the hard race – where they both excel – it seems that the hierarchy is turned around. With a headwind, this stage may not be quite hard enough for Kristoff to really be able to benefit from those sprinting skills but if it comes down to a battle between him and Degenkolb, it will be a close call.

 

Sep Vanmarcke has been selected for this race with the objective of helping the team in the flat stages. However, he has been allowed to take his own chance in this stage and after LottoNL-Jumbo took a beating yesterday, there is definitely no reason to hold him back. The Belgian has proved that he is one of the very best on the cobbles and if anyone has the potential to dominate the Northern classics in the next few year, Vanmarcke is the man.

 

This year he didn’t have the best classics campaign as he was marred by bad luck in most of the biggest races and in general he seems to be haunted by misfortune in the biggest races. Furthermore, he often does way too much work but in a race where the GC also comes into play, he may be allowed to hide a bit more. He is fast in a sprint and famously beat Tom Boonen in the 2012 Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. However, he needs to drop Degenkolb and Kristoff to win the stage.

 

The strongest team for this stage is probably Etixx-QuickStep and their main goal is to win stages. Rigoberto Uran may harbor certain GC ambitions but the team won’t slow down to wait for him and in fact he should be able to do well in this stage. Their best card is probably Zdenek Stybar who seems to be in great condition at the moment. Alongside Degenkolb and Vanmarcke, he has been the strongest rider on the cobbles in the last few years and is very hard to drop on the cobbles. Like Vanmarcke he is fast in a sprint but of course he needs to get rid of Kristoff and Degenkolb. If Etixx-QuickStep have cards to play in the front group, they can go on the attack and Stybar is strong enough to finish it off.

 

Greg Van Avermaet has twice finished on the podium in Paris-Roubaix and this stage is one of his big goals in this race. He has been allowed to take his own chances and won’t have to do too much for Tejay van Garderen unless the situation becomes very dangerous. He is probably not quite as strong on the flat cobbles as the likes of Degenkolb, Vanmarcke and Stybar but he won’t be far off. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and with more interests in the pace-setting he may for once avoid doing too much work early in the race.

 

Another option for Etixx-QuickStep is to wait for a sprint finish from a small group. Matteo Trentin rode strongly on the cobbles last year when he made it into the front group where he stayed until Kwiatkowski punctured in the finale. This year he again seems to be in very good condition and as he is part of a strong team, he is likely to enter the sectors in the best possible position. While the likes of Stybar, Martin and Kwiatkowski will attack, Trentin will save himself for the sprint and last year he proved that he has the speed to beat even the biggest names if he gets the right lead-out.

 

Usually, an in-form Peter Sagan would be one of the major favourites for this stage. However, he will probably have to sacrifice himself for Contador and so is unlikely to be allowed to play his own cards. However, if the captain is safe, he may be allowed to chase some success. Paris-Roubaix has never been his preferred classic but he has still been able to do well, even this year when he was far from his current condition. The technical finale suits him well but it will be hard for him to beat the likes of Degenkolb and Kristoff who are usually a bit faster.

 

We are curious to see how André Greipel and Mark Cavendish will do in this stage. Cavendish is never Par of the Etixx team for Roubaix but Greipel has lots of experience in the classics. In fact he rode extremely well in the Tour of Flanders this year. Greipel is the strongest of the pair but Cavendish has the best team. It won’t be impossible for them to make it into the front group and finish it off in a sprint.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski and Tony Martin have both proved that they can do well on the cobbles. The German is in great condition at the moment and even though he is not at his best, the Pole still did well in stage 2. If Etixx have strength in numbers, those two riders are strong enough to attack and hold the peloton off. However, Martin will be more concerned about the yellow jersey and will do his utmost to distance Chris Froome. If he gets rid of the Brit, he will ride hard to maximize his gains and so may miss out on the stage win.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen has all the skills to do well in the cobbled classics but he seems to have a hard time coping with the distance. Hence, this shorter stage should suit him well and he has proved that he is in good condition after his injury-marred spring season. He doesn’t have the strongest team to support him but if he can get into a good position for the first cobbles and make it into the front group, the combination of power and a fast sprint will make him a contender.

 

If Greipel is not up for the challenge, Jens Debusschere will be ready to take over. The former Belgian champion finished in the top 10 in Roubaix and can do well in this terrain. However, he is not as strong as the best and needs a less selective race to be able to benefit from his fast sprint. Furthermore, he crashed in stage 2 and may not be at 100%.

 

IAM riders Sylvain Chavanel and Martin Elmiger have both done well on the cobbles and the latter had an impressive classics campaign this year. They might be asked to stay with Mathias Frank but if they are allowed to take their chance, they will be ready to strike.

 

Last year’s winner Lars Boom is one of the most talented Paris-Roubaix riders but it will be hard for him to repeat the success. His main goal is to work for Nibali and maximize his potential time gains and this will leave him with little energy to go for the stage win. His only real chance is a repeat of last year’s scenario where Astana simply crushed the opposition and that is unlikely to happen.

 

Strong riders like Sebastian Langeveld, Filippo Pozzato, Davide Cimolai, Luca Paolini and Arnaud Demare have all done well on the cobbles but they will probably be asked to stay with their captains. Furthermore, Pozzato was involved in today's crash. However, if they get a chance, they should be able to do well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Sep Vanmarcke

Outsiders: Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet, Matteo Trentin

Jokers: Peter Sagan, André Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tony Gallopin, Jens Debusschere, Martin Elmiger, Sylvain Chavanel, Lars Boom, Sebastian Langeveld, Filippo Pozzato, Davide Cimolai, Luca Paolini, Arnaud Demare