Peter Sagan was again denied the elusive stage win but he still has two opportunities left in the first week of the race. One of them comes in tomorrow's stage which will be the final chance for the sprinters before they go into survival mode for what could be more than two weeks without a chance to show their fast legs.

 

The course

In the past, most teams that didn’t have a potential overall winner, always had a sprinter in their line-up. The many bunch kicks would make half of the race a dull affair if there was no fast finisher in the team but this year several squads have decided to leave their sprinters at home. That is no surprise as there is very little room for them to shine. The first week only offers three real bunch sprint opportunities and when the riders have arrived in Fougères at the end of stage 7, they may have to wait until the final day in Paris before they can again stretch their legs in a real bunch kick.

 

Stage 7 brings the riders over 190.5km from Livarot to Fougères and almost completes the journey from the eastern part of the country to Bretagne in the western part. Unlike the previous stage which took place almost entirely along the coast, the riders have now travelled inland where the terrain is significantly flatter. The southwesterly trip only includes a single categorized climb in the early part of the stage when the riders go up the category 4 Cote de Canapville (1.9km, 4.7%) at the 12.5km mark. From there, only rolling hills can challenge the riders on a day that offers little elevation gain.

 

The main highlight comes at the 65.5km mark when the riders will contest the intermediate sprint. It couldn’t be more straightforward as it comes at the end of a long, flat road of more than 3km in the city of Argentan.

 

The only slight change in the terrain is that it will get even flatter towards the end, leading to a finale that is suited to the fast guys. The riders will turn left in a roundabout around 4km from the finish and then they will pass straight through another two roundabouts before they turn right in the final such obstacle with 800m to go. Then there is a very light left-hand bend with 600m to go form where the road bends very slightly to the right until it straightens out for the final 90m on the 6m finishing straight. The final part of the stage is mainly slightly downhill but the final 600m are uphill at a gradient of 2-3%.

 

Fougeres is often on the course for the Tour de Bretagne but has not hosted a stage finish of the Tour de France for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Bretagne is known for its wind, rain and narrow roads that make riding in the cycling-mad region treacherous and dangerous. However, it seems that the riders are lucky to avoid the carnage that has often made races in the area a treat for the TV viewers.

 

Already today the riders had pleasant conditions for their ride along the coast and tomorrow the weather will be even better. It will be bright sunshine all day and with a maximum temperature of 28 degrees, the riders have returned to the hot conditions that had an impact on the opening time trial (even though the temperatures are not as brutal as they were at the start of the race).

 

There will be a moderate wind from the east which will gradually change direction to come slightly more from the southeast towards the end of the stage. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind almost all day which could make for a fast stage. In the finale, they will turn into a crosswind with 4km to go and then gradually turn back into a cross-tailwind. There will be a tailwind in the final 800m.

 

The favourites

As we claimed in our preview yesterday, only one thing could possible prevent Peter Sagan from winning the today's stage: a late attack in the flat final section. That's exactly what happened when the dramatic crash had left the sprinters isolated and no one left to bring Zdenek Stybar back. However, the big talking point was of course Tony Martin's injuries. At the time of writing, nothing is confirmed but it seems that the race leader is out of the race. This means that no one will wear yellow in tomorrow's stage and that Chris Froome is the virtual leader of the race. Furthermore, it is a big setback for Etixx-QuickStep for both the sprints and the team time trial.

 

We have only had six days of racing and the frustration is already growing in most of the sprint teams. Anderé Greipel has dominated the first two flat stages and this means that most of the fast guys are left empty-handed. The pressure is building and will reach new heights in tomorrow’s stage which is their final opportunity in the first week. If things go wrong in the hard stage 15 which could offer them another chance to sprint, they will have to wait until the final stage and survive no less than 7 stages in the high mountains before they get one final shot at glory.

 

This means that there will be some nervous faces at the start of tomorrow’s stage which has all the characteristics of a classic sprint stage. Hence, many will be pleased to learn about the nice weather which should make the racing a lot less nervous. The same goes for the GC riders of which most have feared the first week. The final two road stages in Bretagne had the potential to create carnage as wind and narrow roads are great threats in the region. With sunshine and a predominant tailwind in today’s stage, they should get a relatively easy ride to Fougeres to save energy for the two important stages in the weekend – at least as easy as it gets in the Tour de France.

 

Until now, the racing has been controlled firmly by the GC and sprint teams and that won’t change in tomorrow’s stage. With this being the final opportunity for the sprinters for a long time, there is no chance that they will let it slip away. Hence, we can expect the first attack to be the successful one as it has been the case in all road stages so far. In modern-day cycling, the days of wasting energy in a hopeless breakaway in the first week are over and most teams know that it only makes sense to save energy for the second and third week that offer much better chances of success.

 

Bretagne are riding on home roads so they simply have to be part of the action. Expect one of their riders to join forces with a few guys from Europcar, Cofidis, Bora-Argon 18, MTN-Qhubeka and IAM in the move that will animate the first part of the stage. However, they won’t get much of an advantage as Etixx-QuickStep will control things tightly. They are unlikely to have the leader’s jersey but it won't change their approach. Their main goal is to set Mark Cavendish up for a stage win. They haven’t lost faith in their leader yet and will not change strategy at this point of the race. Hence, the break will probably only get a relatively small advantage.

 

Until now, Lotto Soudal have not done much chase work but with two stage wins for Greipel, it will be hard for them to continue that strategy. Today they made the strange decision to chase on a day which didn’t suit Greipel well and it was probably better to save energy for tomorrow. In fact, their work only allowed Sagan to score a lot of points for the points competition. The team is depleted as Thomas De Gendt, Greg Henderson and Adam Hansen are nursing injuries. They might have to put De Gendt, Tim Wellens or Lars Bak on the front alongside Julien Vermote and Michal Golas to keep the break in check though.

 

Again they could be saved by the GC teams. In the previous stages, the sprint teams have actually not had to do much work as the nervous teams of the main contenders have taken control to avoid any kind of risks. Even though tomorrow will be less windy, a cross-tailwind is the most dangerous wind direction. Hence, they all want to be in a good position. Things are unlikely to be as stressful as they have been in most of the stages but it will still be a tough battle when we get closer to the finale.

 

The intermediate sprint will be interesting. It comes pretty early in the stage and this should allow most of the contenders for the green jersey to spend quite a bit of energy here. Alexander Kristoff has already shelved his ambitions while Peter Sagan, André Greipel and John Degenkolb obviously still hope for the green tunic. Bryan Coquard usually always does the intermediate sprint and it will be a clear indication of Mark Cavendish’s goals. Until now he has contested all the intermediates but as he is now unlikely to win the green jersey, we expect him to focus everything on that elusive stage win. In any case, Greipel should win the sprint from the peloton (behind the escapees). Until now he has been clearly the strongest in these sprints and this kind of straight power sprint suits him down to the ground.

 

As we get closer to the finale, things will again be very nervous as the GC teams will come to the fore and the break will be caught relatively early. This means that the stage is destined to be decided in a bunch sprint.

 

In the first real sprint stage, the sprint teams waited relatively long before they hit the front as they were riding into a headwind which made timing crucial. Tomorrow they will mainly have a tailwind and this means that it will be easier to control things. This is an advantage for the best trains which will also benefit from the fact that the finishing straight is very narrow. There won’t be much room to pass the rivals and the risk of getting boxed in is huge. The long finishing straight and tailwind make it one for the really powerful sprinters who can do a long sprint. On the other hand, the slightly rising finishing straight favours certain sprinters over others.

 

Until now, André Greipel has been dominating the sprint stages and it is hard not to put the German on top of the list of favourites. In the intermediate sprints and in the stage finishes, he has been clearly faster than Mark Cavendish who has usually had the upper hand in the battle between the two former teammates. However, the hierarchy seems to have changed in this race and Lotto Soudal manager Marc Sergeant certainly had a good reason to claim that Greipel is better than ever before.

 

It won’t be easy for Greipel to take a third win. While he has an impressive speed, he is not very good at positioning himself. He usually relies heavily on his lead-out train which is depleted. Lead-out man Greg Henderson is unable to play any role in the finale and the same goes for Adam Hansen who usually keeps them in position until Marcel Sieberg goes at the flamme rouge. Finally, Jens Debusschere who is expected to take Henderson’s role as the final lead-out man, is also nursing injuries and was dropped on the cobbles in stage 4 and the crosswinds in stage 5.

 

Nonetheless, Greipel still came out on top in stage 4. He only had Sieberg at his side in the finale and he was not on his compatriot’s wheel when he went under the flamme rouge. Instead, he found himself too far back and was lucky that a gap opened before it was too late.

 

Tomorrow the narrow finishing straight makes it much harder to find room to move up and his lead-out really needs to work perfectly if he wants to get a chance to show his speed. However, the stage is expected to be a bit easier and so Jens Debusschere is likely to be there in the finale. Furthermore, Sieberg is in the form of his life and clearly has the speed to go up against Etixx-QuickStep. They won’t dominate the finales as they have done in the past but they have the firepower to position Greipel well. He likes those sprints that are slightly uphill and if he can get a clear run to the line, he seems to be the fastest at the moment.

 

Until now, it has been a frustrating race for Mark Cavendish. While he claimed Mark Renshaw for doing an early lead-out in stage, the Brit took full responsibility for his defeat in stage 5. Surprisingly, he was unable to keep up with Zdenek Stybar and Mark Renshaw in the finale and found himself way too far back with 500m to go. That forced him to hit out early and so he came up short against Greipel and Sagan.

 

Cavendish’s defeats can be written down to a combination of tactical mistakes and a lack of speed. The circumstances have forced him to start his sprints too early and he doesn’t seem to have the superior speed that he had in the past.

 

However, tomorrow’s stage should suit him a bit better. While Greipel benefits from a hard race, Cavendish is at his best if it has been a bit easier which is likely to be the case tomorrow. Furthermore, he still has the strongest lead-out and with no tailwind it should be easier for them to dominate the finale. Finally the narrow finishing straight means that it will be harder to find a gap, and it will increase the importance of lead-out trains. Cavendish has the best team at his disposal and if he can stay on Mark Renshaw’s wheel in the finale, he still has the speed to win.

 

We have been very surprised by Peter Sagan’s speed in this race. Usually not able to match the best sprinters, he has been amazingly fast in this race. In stage 5, he made a very impressive comeback and was clearly faster than both Greipel and Cavendish. In the earlier stages, he was also very fast despite having had to use a lot of energy earlier on. Today he was in a class of his own in the sprint.

 

In fact, things have been turned around for Sagan. In the past he has missed the speed but due to good positioning he has always managed to finish very close to the best. In this race, he has the speed but has had to start his sprints from too far back. That is partly due to a lack of team support but it is still a bit strange as he has usually been very good at handling the finales on his own.

 

On this narrow finishing straight, there is no room for such errors and it will be hard for him to fight against the big trains. However, we know he has the skills to get into the right position and the uphill finishing straight suits him down to the ground. If he can get onto Cavendish’s wheel in the finale, he is clearly fast enough to win.

 

Until now Alexander Kristoff has had no luck in this race. He was caught behind a crash in stage 2, missed a split in stage 3 when he thought the race was neutralized, punctured on the cobbles and saw his entire lead-out train crash out of contention in stage 5. This leaves him with only a few opportunities left and tomorrow’s stage is one of them.

 

Kristoff is not at his best but he is not riding poorly. Today he looked strong on the climb and in stage 5 he did a very long sprint and still managed to hold onto fourth despite being isolated in the finale. Tomorrow he will again have the train Paolini-Haller-Guarnieri at his disposal and they have worked very well this year. They are probably strong enough to challenge Etixx-QuickStep. An long uphill sprint with a tailwind is perfect for Kristoff and this stage could be the one that changes his fortunes.

 

John Degenkolb has many of the same characteristics and also likes this kind of long uphill sprint. However, with such a narrow finishing straight, he is likely to come up short when it comes to positioning. The Giant-Alpecin train is not at 100% as they are missing Tom Veelers and Degenkolb is not very good at staying with his teammates. That was what derailed his plans in stage 5 and so he was out of position at the start of the sprint. However, Ramon Sinkeldam, Roy Curvers and Koen De Kort actually did a very good job and if they can repeat that performance and Degenkolb can stay with them, he might be allowed to start his sprint from a good position. In that case, he has the speed to win.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is not a pure sprinter but in this stage it is more about lead-outs than actual speed. This will make the Norwegian a possible contender as he has a very strong lead-out. Tyler Farrar and Reinardt van Jensburg did really well in stage 5 where Boasson Hagen seemed to have the speed for a better result than fifth if he hadn’t been boxed in. The uphill finishing straight suits him well and if his lead-out can time it a bit better, it could be a great day for MTN-Qhubeka.

 

Bryan Coquard is clearly in good condition after he won two stages in the Route du Sud and he likes uphill sprints. However, he is very poor at positioning himself and this will probably make it impossible to win the stage. However, Angelo Tulik and Yohann Gene did a surprisingly good lead-out in stage 5 and if they can time it a bit better, Coquard has the speed to finish it off as he proved in the sprint in today's stage.

 

Arnaud Demare can suddenly expect to get more team support after Thibaut Pinot is no longer an overall contender. He was very pleased with his sprint in stage 5 where he finished seventh after having started way too early. He is one of the fastest riders in the peloton and likes uphill sprints. However, he doesn’t have much team support as William Bonnet has abandoned and so he relies on Sebastien Chavanel in the finale. That will make it hard in a stage where positioning is important.

 

In stage 5, MTN-Qhubeka had actually planned to do the sprint for Tyler Farrar but as the American crashed twice, Boasson Hagen was given the nod. However, the team have made it clear that they don’t want to ride for the Norwegian every day and so Farrar could get his chance tomorrow. He is clearly not as fast as he once was but with Boasson Hagen and van Rensburg to lead him out, there is a solid chance that he will be allowed to start the sprint from a good position.

 

The first part of the race has been frustrating for Sam Bennett who has not had a chance to sprint yet. He was caught out in the crosswinds in the first two sprint stages. Tomorrow the good weather conditions should finally allow him to show the speed that saw him beat the biggest stars in the Tour of Qatar and Bayern Rundfahrt. However, he only has Zakkari Dempster to lead him out in the finale and that is likely to be too little to be in winning contention.

 

Davide Cimolai has had a breakthrough season and he likes the uphill sprints. He did a good effort in stage 5 to take ninth despite starting his sprint from too far and today he rode a very strong race.. Usually, he is pretty good at positioning himself but in this race it won’t be easy. He only has an injured Filippo Pozzato to lead him out and that means that a top 5 is probably the best possible result.

 

Cofidis have lost Nacer Bouhanni but they still have lots of fast riders in the team. Geoffrey Soupe was 11th in stage 5 and Chrstophe Laporte is another rider who is capable of mixing it up in a bunch sprint. The team will probably make a late decision about which rider to support. They won’t win the stage but with a strong lead-out train, a top 5 is possible if everything goes well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Bryan Coquard

Jokers: Arnaud Demare, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Davide Cimolai, Geoffrey Soupe, Christophe Laporte