Vincenzo Nibali showed signs of weakness on the Mur-de-Bretagne which failed to create any other time differences between the overall contenders. They now prepare themselves for the crucial team time trial whose lumpy course has the potential to create bigger gaps than one would usually expect on a 28km route.

 

The course

Since Christian Prudhomme took over the reins in ASO, the amount of time trialling at the Tour de France has generally been reduced. However, the 2015 edition marks a new low for the time triallists who will have only 13.8km of individual time trialling on the opening day. Instead, the biggest test against the clock will be the difficult 28km team time trial that brings a very tough, nervous and exciting first week to an end.

 

In the 90s and early 2000s, the team time trial was a fixture on the Tour de France course. However, the mammoth distances of more than 60km often created enormous time differences that took several GC riders out of contention before they had even done a single climb. ASO introduced a complicated set of rules to minimize the time gaps before they abandoned the discipline completely for the 2006 edition.

 

In 2009, it was back on the course albeit in a much shorter version in the past and now it seems to be a rule that the discipline features in the race every second year. The riders last tackled a collective ride against the clock in 2013 and so it was no major surprise that the organizers had found room for a team time trial in the 2015 edition of the race.

 

However, this year’s TTT is highly unusual for a number of reasons. First of all, it is held on a very hilly course that is not the standard route for team time trials and makes it completely different from the 2013 TTT that was the fastest ever in a grand tour. However, the biggest issue is the fact that it comes very late in the race. In the past, team time trials have usually been one of the first five stages but this year it comes on day 9. To make things even worse, the first part of the race has been highly nervous and marred by crashes, meaning that many teams have lost several riders at this point. This will be a significant disadvantage in a test where the difficult course will make it very hard to have 5 riders arriving at the finish together.

 

The course is 28km long and brings the riders from Vannes to the cycling-mad city of Plumelec in the Breton heartland. It is made up a long northerly run along lumpy roads with very few flat sections. The first 10km are the flattest and only include one small climb but the opening part is pretty technical with several turns as the riders leave the city of Vannes.

 

The first time check will be taken at the 10km mark when the riders start a long gradual climb of around 4km with a gradient of 2-3%. Then there’s a short flat section and a descent before the riders get to the second time check at the 20.5km mark. It comes after a slightly rising section and signals the start of a 1km climb with an average gradient of 4.2%. The next part is a long gradual descent that leads to the nasty sting in the tail. The stage ends at the top of the Cote de Cadoudal (1.7km, 6.2%) in the city of Plumelec, a rather regular climb with a constant gradient of 6-7% before it flattens out for the final 200m. There are a few winding turns inside the final 3km, with the final right-hand turn leading onto the 220m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

The latest team time trial was held in Nice in 2013 when Orica-GreenEDGE beat Omega Pharma-Quick Step by less than a second on a flat course that made it the fastest TTT in the grand tour history. In 2011, Garmin-Cervelo won a much hiller team time trial on the second day while Astana crushed the opposition when the TTT was reintroduced in 2009 on a hilly, technical course around Montpellier.

 

Plumelec last hosted a Tour de France stage in 2008 when Alejandro Valverde won the uphill sprint on the opening day of the race. It is famously known for the GP de Plumelec-Morbihan which is a fixture on the Coupe de France calendar and is held on the final Saturday of the Giro d’Italia. It finishes at the top of the Cote de Cadoudal, making it a race for puncheurs. This year’s race was won by Alexis Vuillermoz while Julien Simon has won it twice and Samuel Dumoulin once in recent years.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Brittany didn’t offer the windy, rainy conditions that the organizers had hoped for and the riders had feared. In fact, the first two days in the region have been spent in sunny conditions with little wind and nice temperatures. It won’t be much different for the team time trial during which the weather should have little impact.

 

It will be cloudier than it has been in the last few days but there will be no rain and the sun may come out towards the end of the stage. The temperature will reach a pleasant maximum of 22 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind as they leave Vannes but will mainly have a crosswind from the right for most of the stage, with just very short section of tailwind along the way. It is forecasted to be unchanged during the stage, meaning that all teams are expected to have identical conditions.

 

The favourites

As expected, the Mur-de-Bretagne was not hard enough for the favourites to attack each other and instead it was the selection from the rear end of the group that made the difference. The climb might not have been suited to Vincenzo Nibali but it was definitely a huge surprise to see the defending champion lose contact with a relatively big group. That's definitely not a good sign for the Italian as the survival phase has now come to an end and it is time to start the real battle.

 

The cobbles, the wind and the two walls in Huy and Bretagne presented opportunities to potentially gain a bit of time in the first week. However, it was always going to require a bit of luck to benefit from the former two factors while the two climbing stages were always going to be a question of seconds. Hence, the GC riders have all been looking to the stage 9 team time trial as the day for the first major battle for significant time gaps between the overall contenders.

 

However, the first week produced bigger time gaps than some had expected. The cobbles failed to create any separation but the wind on stage 2 did just as much damage as some had hoped and others had feared. Hence, Vincenzo Nibali who was widely tipped to have been the winner in the first week, and Nairo Quintana already finds themselves with a significant deficit while Alberto Contador showed clear signs of weakness on the Mur de Huy where he lost a lot more time than he had expected.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is set to change the hierarchy again but this time it won’t be about individual strength. Instead, the riders will now rely on their teams in what is one of the most unpredictable team time trials for years. Interestingly, the four main contenders are widely tipped to have the best team for this stage, alongside world champions BMC who look to move Tejay van Garderen into the yellow jersey.

 

What makes the stage more unpredictable than usual is the combination of the course and the fact that it comes after 8 days of stressful racing. The route doesn’t have many metres of flat roads and includes so much climbing that it will be very hard to keep 5 riders together at the finish. This is not a stage where one can benefit much from strong, powerful rouleurs as it is more for the versatile GC riders who can both climb and time trial. In fact, the strongest riders have to be very careful on the climbs not to blow their teams to pieces. That will be especially important on the finale climb where everybody will be on their limit. Remember how Tejay van Garderen probably cost BMC the Worlds title in 2012 when he went too hard up the Cauberg in the finale.

 

Secondly, many riders are fatigued at this late point in a grand tour and this makes recovery extremely important. Some riders have been set back by injuries while others are simply fatigued and unable to deliver their usual contribution. Finally, lots of riders have abandoned the race. Orica-GreenEDGE were never one of the favouirtes as they don’t have their best TTT team here and the course is too hilly for them. However, they would have had an outside chance but now it will be a day of survival. Having lost three riders, they only have 6 riders at the start and as Michael Matthwes is unlikely to make much of a contribution, they won’t feature anywhere near the top of the results sheet. Katusha have lost two riders while Giant-Alpecin, Trek and Etixx-QuickStep have all lost their best riders for this stage.

 

In general, time gaps in short team time trials are pretty small but it will probably be vastly different in this stage. The distance may not be overly long but the unusual circumstances will change things. The Dauphiné had a dress rehearsal for this stage with a team time trial in similarly hilly terrain and over a slightly shorter distance. That stage was won by BMC and created surprisingly big time gaps, with Sky losing 35 seconds to the winners. With a longer distance, harder terrain and more fatigue, there is every reason to suggest that the gaps will be even bigger in this stage, making it one of the most important days of the entire race.

 

BMC are the reigning world champions and won the Dauphiné stage a few weeks ago. In this race, they have largely the same team and go into the stage as the favourites. Four of their world champions – Tejay van Garderen, Manuel Quinziato, Daniel Oss and Rohan Dennis – are in France and they are joined by Samuel Sanchez, Greg Van Avermaet, Damiano Caruso, Danilo Wyss and Michael Schär who are not specialists but should be able to do well on this kind of hilly course.

 

Furthermore, the team has not had any major setbacks and has been riding extremely well. Damiano Caruso and Tejay van Garderen have both crashed but have not suffered any major injuries. Furthermore, they have been dominating the stage finales, including the cobbles. They have followed the Evans recipe of lining up several classics riders to keep the leader protected in the first week and they have probably been the strongest team in the tricky first week. When the peloton split in stage 2, they had most of their team in the front group and most of the riders made the selection on the cobbles too.

 

The main challenge for BMC is the fact that the course is a bit hillier than it was at the Dauphiné. That will make it harder for their heavier guys compared to a team like Astana that have more versatile rouleurs who climb better. However, Rohan Dennis can do a massive difference in this kind of test. The Australian played a major role in the Dauphiné victory and now he seems to be riding even better. He won the opening time trial and he has been impressively strong in the first week where he has spent surprisingly much time on the front of the peloton. With van Garderen also being in the form of his life, the team have two winners to set the pace and as they are surrounded by a great team of specialists, van Garderen could very well find himself in yellow tomorrow night.

 

In the Dauphiné, their main rivals were Astana who missed out on the win by just four second. The Kazakhs have largely the same team in this race. Alessandro Vanotti has been replaced by Tanel Kangert and Jakob Fuglsang and that have only made them stronger for tomorrow’s stage as both are the kind of strong climber-rouleurs that can do well on this course. Especially the addition of Kangert is expected to make a bg difference as the Estonian is one of the strongest in hilly time trials.

 

On paper Astana have a formidable team for this stage. Vincenzo Nibali has improved massively in time trials and likes this kind of rolling course. Kangert, Rein Taaramae, Andriy Grivko and Lieuwe Westra are both great time triallists who excel in hilly terrain. Fuglsang is no longer the time triallist he once was but should be able to deliver a solid contribution. Lars Boom will be a key rider, especially in the first part, and Dmitriy Gruzdev has once been in the top 10 in the Worlds TTT.

 

However, we have not been overly impressed by Astana in the first week and today their captain even showed signs of weakness. The Kazakh team have had surprisingly many riders missing key splits in the wind and on the cobbles. Boom has complained about bad legs and only started to feel a bit better two days ago. There is a chance that they have held something back for the team time trial and that they will come out with all guns blazing in the second part of the race. If that’s the case, they will win this stage as they have the most versatile and homogeneous team for this kind of test and it would be the perfect way for Nibali to strike back after today's poor showing.

 

Movistar are always among the best in team time trials. In the Dauphiné, they were 3rd, just 5 seconds behind BMC, and they have a stronger team for this race. Adriano Malori, Jonathan Castroviejo and Alex Dowsett are all among the biggest specialists and Alejandro Valverde and Gorka Izagirre love this kind of hilly TT. Imanol Erviti is a solid time triallist as well and Winner Anacona and Nairo Quintana are not bad either.

 

Castroviejo will play a key role on this course. The Spaniard is in great condition and is reportedly climbing better than ever. Malori is no bad climber either. However, Dowsett is suffering from injuries and has been riding at the back of the field in both stages 5 and 7. If the strong Brit is not able to contribute, they are only riding with 8 riders and that could be fatal in what is expected to be a close battle between the best teams. However, if the Brit is back at a solid level, they are likely to continue their excellent track record in difficult team time trials and have a chance to both win the stage and take some time back for Quintana.

 

Sky have done a lot to improve in team time trials and their efforts seemed to have paid off when they won the Tour de Romandie TTT. However, they delivered surprisingly poor performances in the Giro del Trentino, the Giro and the Duaphiné and in the latter race, Froome was clearly frustrated by the result that saw them lose 35 seconds to BMC.

 

For this race, their team has been significantly strengthened with the addition of Geraint Thomas, Leopold König and Richie Porte who are all among the best time triallists on this kind of hilly course. Thomas is clearly riding extremely well and has confirmed the good condition he showed in the Tour de Suisse. However, Porte and König are clearly not at their Giro level. Of course they have held something back in the first week as they have been saving energy for the mountains but König showed at Nationals that he is not at 100%. If he had been close to his best, Porte would not have missed the opportunity to be the plan B for GC but he has had a completely different approach and rode a very poor time trial.

 

Wout Poels and Peter Kennaugh are both strong in this terrain but none of them are specialists. Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe are strong riders but not time triallists. The main powerhouses are Froome and Thomas. However, Froome has done surprisingly poor time trials in 2015 and even though he is clearly in great condition, he has focused more on his climbing than his time trialling. There’s no doubt that Sky have a very strong team for this stage but it will be hard for them to beat the likes of Astana, Movistar and BMC.

 

Among the riders from the Fabulous Four, Alberto Contador could very well find himself as the loser in tomorrow’s stage. Tinkoff-Saxo have a very strong team and will clearly be among the best in this stage. However, they seem to be slightly below the level of the best teams. Contador showed signs of weakness on the Mur and riders like Ivan Basso and Matteo Tosatto are not among the best in this discipline. Michael Valgren would usually be strong but he doesn’t seem to be at his best.

 

Daniele Bennati as a great rider for this discipline and he is very strong even on this kind of hilly course. Roman Kreuziger and Michael Rogers are both powerful in this terrain but none of them are the time triallists they once was. Peter Sagan is clearly in very good condition and should be able to make a massive contribution but he is clearly no specialist. The same goes for Rafal Mahja even though he will do well on this kind of course. In general, they have a very versatile and homogeneous team but they probably miss the big engines to win the stage.

 

Etixx-QuickStep would have been among the big favourites for this stage if Tony Martin had still been in the race. However, now they only have 8 riders and they are missing their biggest engine. This is a huge setback and will make it hard for them to win the stage. Furthermore, Mark Cavendish and Mark Renshaw who are usually good TTT riders will come up short on this course and Matteo Trentin is definitely no specialist. Zdenek Stybar is riding really well and will benefit from the terrain but he is no specialist. Finally, Julien Vermote is a good rouleur but he is not among the strongest.

 

On paper, the key engines are Rigoberto Uran and Michal Kwiatkowski who should both love this course. However, the Pole is not even close to his best condition and this puts much of the weight on Uran’s shoulders.  We have been pleasantly surprised by his form but it will be hard for him to bring Etixx-QuickStep to the top step of the podium in this classy field.

 

For several days, IAM have been saving energy for this stage. They have a formidable team of time triallists and are eager to bounce back after Mathias Frank lost a bit of time due to crashes in the first week. Sylvain Chavanel and Jerome Coppel are both great specialists for this kind of course and the latter is clearly in great condition, winning the French championships and riding strongly in the Tour de Suisse. Unfortunately, Chavanel doesn’t seem to be at 100% and he spent quite a bit of energy in today’s break.

 

Matthias Brändle is a great rouleur but the terrain is probably a bit too hard for him. Stef Clement would have been a very strong engine as he seems to be back to his best in the time trials. Unfortunately, he has been suffering in this race and this is a huge setback. Nonetheless, Mathias Frank, Reto Hollenstein and Marcel Wyss should all be able to deliver solid contributions on this course and with a very homogeneous team with lots of specialists, tomorrow could be a great day for IAM.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo had a formidable opening time trial and on paper they have a very strong team for this stage. Unfortunately, they have been hampered by bad luck and Wilco Kelderman and Laurens Ten Dam are both nursing injuries. The latter would never have been able to make much of a contribution but it is a big setback that the former is suffering and considering withdrawal. However, Robert Gesink is in great condition and did the time trial of his life in Utrecht. Steven Kruijswijk did a similarly great performance in the Giro. Jos van Emden was fifth in Utrecht but it will be harder for him to shine on this course. In general, LottoNL’s biggest problem is that they have too many heavy guys to be among the very best on this course.

 

Cannondale-Garmin were once among the best in the team time trials but that is no longer the case. In fact, they have rarely finished in the top 10 in recent TTTs as they have completely changed their focus. However, they actually have a solid team for this stage. Nathan Haas, Dylan van Baarle, Sebastian Langeveld, Ramunas Navardauskas and Kristijan Koren are all strong rouleurs and should be able to handle this terrain well. Andrew Talansky is a great time triallist and should find the course to his liking but unfortunately he is not at 100%. Ryder Hesjedal is not a specialist but he is strong on the climbs. For Dan Martin, it will be a day of survival but the Irishman is in super condition at the moment. Unfortunately, they lost Jack Bauer a few days ago which is a huge setback and they spent quite a bit og energy in today's stage. They probably lack some better climbers to be among the best but they should aim for a similar result to the one they had in the Dauphiné where they were seventh.

 

Trek have had a major setback as they lost Fabian Cancellara and this rules them out of the battle for the top spots. However, Stijn Devolder, Markel Irizar and an in-form Bob Jungels are all TT specialists and Bauke Mollema is impressively strong at the moment. In fact, the team leader did the TT of his life in Utrecht. Haimar Zubeldia is also a decent time triallist in this terrain. Unfortunately, the team always seem to disappoint in team time trials and even though they have a strong team on paper, we won’t be surprised if they again fail to live up to expectations.

 

Bora-Argon 18 won the team time trial in the Giro del Trentino and should be able to do well here too. Jan Barta is the big engine on the team which is very versatile. Looking at the names, they don’t stand out as one of the outsiders but they have a great history in this discipline which has always been a major focus. Of course they won’t win the stage – especially as Paul Voss is suffering from illness – but they are capable of a top 10 finish.

 

Romain Bardet was hugely disappointed with Ag2r’s performance in the Dauphiné. It is certainly true that the Frenchmen have never been among the best in this discipline but on this kind of course they should be able to do well. Damien Gaudin, Christopher Riblon and Jean-Christophe Peraud are all good time triallists and Jan Bakelants and Ben Gastauer are both very strong riders in this terrain. The team definitely has the potential to do better than they did a few weeks ago and they should be able to finish in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: BMC

Other winner candidates: Astana, Movistar

Outsiders: Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo, Etixx-QuickStep

Jokers: IAM, Cannondale-Garmin, LottoNL-Jumbo, Trek, Bora-Argon 18, Ag2r

Start Times
15.00 Orica-GreenEDGE
15.05 Bretagne-Séché Environnement
15.10 Lampre-Merida
15.15 FDJ
15.20 Europcar
15.25 Bora-Argon 18
15.30 Lotto Soudal
15.35 IAM Cycling
15.40 MTN-Qhubeka
15.45 LottoNL-Jumbo
15.50 Trek Factory Racing
15.55 Astana
16.00 Cannondale-Garmin
16.05 Cofidis
16.10 Katusha
16.15 Movistar
16.20 Giant-Alpecin
16.25 Ag2r La Mondiale
16.30 Etixx-Quick-Step
16.35 Tinkoff-Saxo
16.40 BMC Racing Team
16.45 Team Sky