No Tour de France competition is as hard to predict as the battle for the polka-dot jersey of best climber. While it has mostly been won by aggressive opportunists, a recent rule change has made the tunic a viable goal for the GC contenders as well. Many riders start the race with an eye on the coveted jersey but the battle is further complicated by the facts that luck plays a crucial role and that many riders end up as jersey contenders almost by pure accident.

 

The list of winners of the polka-dot jersey is a prestigious one and contains many of the best pure climbers, the sport of cycling has ever seen. Hence, it was painful for Tour organizers to see the lesser known Anthony Charteau ride into Paris in the famous tunic at the end of the 2010 edition of the race.

 

To avoid a similar scenario, they introduced what has been referred to as a "Lex Charteau": a rule change that should make the real mountains more important than the smaller climbs and that would give points to fewer riders on each climb. The purpose was clear: ASO wanted a "big" rider and a real climber to win the jersey.

 

The effect of the rule change was immediate: in 2011, it was GC rider Samuel Sanchez who rode into Paris in the polka-dot jersey. In 2012, the jersey was once again taken by an opportunist but ASO were probably not unhappy to see local hero Thomas Voeckler bring home the coveted tunic. After all, the Frenchman had finished 4th overall one year earlier and so should be regarded as a "big" rider also by ASO. In 2013 ASO could probably not have wished a better scenario as the race was taken by a pure climber who even finished 2nd overall, as Nairo Quintana took the jersey on the final day of the race. Last year it was Rafal Majka who rode into Paris with the polka-dots which must have pleased the organizers as the Pole was among the best on the climbs and won stages in both the Alps and the Pyrenees.

 

This year the rules are unchanged and points will be scored according to the following system:

 

• HC climbs: 25, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 points respectively for first 10 riders to finish
• Category 1 climbs: 10,8,6,4,2,1 points respectively to the first 6 riders to finish
• Category 2 climbs: 5,3,2,1 points respectively to the first 4 riders to finish
• Category 3 climbs : 2, 1 points, respectively to the first 2 riders to finish
• Category 4 passes: 1 point to the first rider to finish.

 

Furthermore, points awarded are doubled for the final climb on the 10th, 12th, 17th, 19th, and 20th stages which all have summit finishes.

 

This year the battle once again shapes up to be a close one which could be won either by an opportunist or a GC rider. A bit of luck plays a crucial role in the mountains competition as it is important to hit the breakaway in the decisive stages where there are many points at stake. Hence, many riders start the race with an eye on the classification but without making the jersey their only target in the race. After the first couple of mountain stages, a handful of riders find themselves in contention and they are often set to fight it out between them throughout the rest of the race. They are up against the GC riders for whom the jersey is rarely a genuine target but who end up scoring a lot of points by being up there in every mountain stage.

 

Whether the jersey will be taken by a GC rider or an opportunist, depends on the level of control in the mountain stages. If the GC riders end up deciding most of the big stages, they will probably score enough to take the win. However, if the escapees are allowed to prevail on several occasions, they take away a lot of points from the GC riders and this will tip the balance towards the attackers. Furthermore, it is important whether there are many “big climbing” days with lots of mountains throughout the stage as those stages favour the opportunists who can score lots of points even if they are caught before the finish. This year stages 11, 12 and 19 are such stages which is a bit more than usual.

 

The level of control depends on a number of factors. If one rider turns out to be in a class of his own in the summit finishes, more escapes will make it to the finish as fewer teams will be interested in chasing them down. If the GC fight is a close one, the big teams will be more concerned by their internal battle as this will be another advantage for the escapees. However, the introduction of bonus seconds may tip the balance towards the GC riders as they will now have an extra incentive to chase down the escapees. Finally, it depends on the composition of the mountain stages as many repeated climbs make it much harder for the peloton to control the race.

 

This year the key stages for the mountains classification are stages 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 19 and 20. Stage 10 is the first major summit finish of the race and these are often decided by the GC riders. As this one is even completely flat until they get to the bottom of the final climb, it should be a day for the big riders. Stage 11 is likely to be one for a breakaway and will be the first big day for the opportunists who target this jersey. However, stage 12 is the one with most points on offer in the Pyrenees and could be won by either a GC rider or an escapee. In the Alps, stage 18 is destined to be won by a breakaway while the attackers will also have a good chance in stages 17 and 19. However, stage 20 is hugely prestigious and the decisive stage which means that it is probably a day for the overall contenders.

 

Last year breakaways took the win in four of the seven mountain stages while Nibali won the rest. The Italian ended up being very close to Majka and it was all decided in the final mountain stage of the race. In 2013 three of five mountain stages were decided by the GC riders and back then, the two first riders in the mountains classification were GC riders, with Froome finishing second behind Quintana. The Colombian was a massive 30 points ahead of Rolland who was the first non-GC rider in third and this suggests that the GC riders may have a slight upper hand.

 

Last year Nibali dominated the mountain stages by winning three of them but it was still not enough to win the polka-dot jersey. However, if the breakaways hadn’t been dominated by Majka, the Italian would have won the jersey comfortably. In 2013 he breakaway wins were spread a bit more out and that made the GC riders dominate the competition.

 

This year the balance probably tips towards the escapees. In general there are a lot of early climbs in the mountain stages and this favours the opportunists. Furthermore, most of the stages have a pretty tough start and this makes it easier for the strong climbers to join the right move, minimizing the important of luck in the hectic opening phase.

 

As usual, there aren’t many riders that have clearly stated their intention to go for the mountains jersey and this makes it an open contest. Many will take stock of the situation after the Pyrenees to see whether they can realistically aim for the jersey. One of the riders who could find themselves in contention, is Warren Barguil. The young Frenchman is doing his first Tour but even though he finished in the top 10 in last year’s Vuelta, he won’t aim for the GC. Instead, he will try to win a stage in the mountains.

 

Barguil is a formidable climber who was not far off the mark of the best in last year’s Spanish grand tour. Furthermore, his excellent debut Vuelta in 2013 where he won two stages, proved his aggressiveness and excellent ability to pick the right moves. He has proved that he recovers very well at the end of a three-week race and that will be important in a competition that is always mostly decided in the final week of the race. Finally, he is pretty fast in an uphill sprint which is important too.

 

Barguil hasn’t shown the best kind of condition in 2015 but that’s no major problem. The situation was identical when he started his two previous Vueltas and he just got stronger as the race went on. The young Frenchman has all the skills to win the mountains jersey and so he is our winner pick.

 

One of the few riders to state his polka-dot ambitions clearly is Julian Arredondo. The Colombian enjoyed an amazing grand tour debut when he won the mountains jersey and won a stage in last year’s Giro. However, he hasn’t been at the same level since that race and this makes us a little uncertain about his abilities to repeat that performance. He showed signs of progress in the Tour de Suisse but by the time we got to the mountain stage he was again off the pace.

 

However, Arredondo has the skills to win this competition. He is very fast in an uphill sprint, a good climber and very aggressive. He will go all out to win the jersey so it will all come down to whether he can return to his best level. The longer French climbs suit him less than the irregular Italian ascents but if he has the legs he had twelve months ago, he will be the man to beat.

 

The dominant climber among the GC riders will also be a formidable candidate. As it is evident from our analysis of the overall favourites, Chris Froome is on top when it comes to pure climbing skills. Whenever the Brit has been at 100%, no one has been able to beat him in the mountain stages and if he can dominate the summit finishes in this race, he could find himself in polka-dots. The main concern for Froome is the fact that he has been slightly below his usual level since he crashed in last year’s Dauphiné and he still needs to show that he can return to his best. Furthermore, he doesn’t seem to recover as well as Contador in a three-week race and that could be a problem in the fight for the mountains jersey as there are many points on offer in the final week.

 

On paper, Alberto Contador is the second best climber in the race but as we said in our overall preview, much will depend on his recovery from the Giro. We expect it to be hard for him to reach his usual level – especially as he has not been at his best yet in 2015 – and as there are many points in the final week when fatigue is likely to play the biggest role, it will be hard for him to win the race and the polka-dot jerseys. However, Contador is still one of the two best climbers in the world and he recovers better than anybody else. He could end up with the race win and the polka-dot jersey as well.

 

Among the candidates for the overall victory, Nairo Quintana is probably the only rider who may have his eyes on the mountains jersey too. He won the competition in 2013 and even though it is clearly a secondary goal, he may do the minimal effort that is required to pick up a few extra points along the way, especially if he loses time in the first week and is no longer in the running for the overall victory. We have made a detailed analysis of his climbing skills in our overall preview and history clearly shows that he is not at Froome’s or Contador’s level. However, a slightly different focus could make him a contender for this jersey.

 

As we have already told in our overall preview, Vincenzo Nibali is likely to be Chris Froome’s nearest rival. However, that is more due to his versatile skills than his abilities in the mountains. However, Sky have admitted that Nibali’s numbers in last year’s race would have made him hard to beat and he claims to be at a similar level this year. As Froome, Quintana and Contador haven’t been at their best in 2014, he could turn out to be the strongest climber again. Among the fabulous four, he is the most unlikely to win the mountains jersey but it won’t be impossible.

 

Steven Kruijswijk had a remarkable Giro where he returned to his best after a few injury-plagued seasons. He nearly won the mountains jersey but in the end his GC aspirations made it impossible for him to go on the attack and bring home the blue tunic. In the Tour he will evaluate his GC options after the first week and also has his eyes on the mountains jersey. It will be tough for him to go for the overall in two grand tours and so the latter may be a more realistic goal. However, he is not fast in a sprint and he is likely to be fatigued after the Italian race which will make things tough for him.

 

Pierre Rolland is always a solid candidate for the mountains jersey which has clearly been one of his objectives in the past few years. However, the GC is also a big goal for him and those two targets are hard to combine if you are not one of the very best. As we have told in our overall preview, we have big expectations for Rolland in the overall standings and so it will be difficult for him to go for the polka-dots too. On the other hand, he is never afraid of attacking from afar and if he loses time in the first time – which is very likely to happen – he will have more freedom to attack in the mountains. As he is one of the best climbers in the race, he will be a formidable candidate.

 

Simon and Adam Yates have both proved that they can be up there with the best on the climbs but in this race they have no GC ambitions. Instead, they will try to win a stage in the mountains and that makes them perfect polka-dot candidates too. They are both very fast in a sprint and have shown that they know how to hit the right breakaway. The main issue will be whether they can recover well enough to still be strong at the end of the race. Adam has had an injury-plagued year and so Simon seems to be the strongest at the moment. On the other hand, Adam is fresher which may give him the advantage in the crucial final week.

 

MTN-Qhubeka have done nothing to hide that they aim for a distinctive jersey and their best chance is the polka-dot jersey with Louis Meintjes. The South African is one of the most talented climbers in the world and he is just getting better and better. Last year he finished the Vuelta where he tested himself in a key breakaway and this year he finished third in a big Dauphiné mountain stage despite having been on the attack all day and getting caught by the favourites. He definitely has the climbing skills to win the jersey but it remains to be seen whether he can recover well enough and go on the attack several days in a row.

 

Daniel Navarro, Ryder Hesjedal and Daniel Martin all have GC ambitions in this race but the latter three could easily lose time in the first week. That could open the door for them to go for the mountains jersey and they are some of the best climbers in the race.

 

Rigoberto Uran has not stated his intentions clearly and it is hard to know whether he will be going for GC. However, with a hard Giro in his legs, he is likely to come up short against the best climbers. This could make him a contender for the mountains jersey.

 

Jean-Christophe Peraud is another interesting candidate. The Frenchman has had a horrible year and his condition is far from its best. He even considered skipping the race and so he could drop out of GC contention pretty early. However, he is likely to get better and better and that could open the door for him to dominate the Alps with some strong attacks in the mountains.

 

Other good candidates are Rafael Valls, Alexis Vuillermoz, Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin.

 

*** Warren Barguil

** Julian Arredondo, Chris Froome

* Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali, Steven Kruijswijk, Pierre Rolland, Simon Yates

 

Jokers: Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Daniel Navarro, Ryder Hesjedal, Daniel Martin, Rigoberto Uran, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Rafael Valls, Alexis Vuillermoz, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin