While points jerseys are often seen as something sprinters may pick up along the way without really targeting them, one such jersey enjoys a special status. The green jersey of the Tour de France is the ultimate achievement of a sprinter - besides the win on the Champs-Elysees - and all sprinters would love to wear it in Paris. During the last few years, Peter Sagan has dominated the competition to such an extent that the organizers have changed the rules to make the competition more open to pure sprinters but a mixed route suiting the versatile riders may still make it hard for the really fast guys to beat the formidable Slovakian.

While the yellow jersey is the ultimate symbol for a stage race rider, the green jersey of the Tour de France is the most prestigious tunic for a sprinter. The points jerseys in the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana have very often been won by GC riders and only lately have the systems been changed to make it easier for the sprinters. In the Tour it has been so for years. A points system that clearly favours sprinters and the flatter French terrain have all contributed to making the points classification in the Tour an affair for the fast finishers. At the same time, the fact that the Tour usually attracts all the biggest sprinters makes the green jersey the ultimate symbol of sprinting prowess.

However, the green jersey is rarely won by the fastest rider. What counts in this very specific competition are not only great sprinting skills, recovery, consistency, luck and even climbing come into play as well. First and foremost, you have to be able to get through three weeks of very tough racing and still maintain your top end speed in the final part of the race. Secondly, you need to be up there in every sprint which requires great positioning skills. Finally, the importance of luck cannot be underestimated as a missed sprint due to a crash or mechanical may cause you to fall out of contention.

Unlike the Giro and Vuelta which have a lot of mixed stages, the French geography traditionally means that there are fewer moderately hilly stages in the medium mountains. In the French grand tours, stages are usually pretty flat, take place in the high mountains or are held as time trials while in the smaller grand tours there are usually a lot of stages that can be won by riders who are not real specialists in any discipline. Combined with a points system that offers more points for the flat stages, this has traditionally meant that the jersey has been won by a pure sprinter.

However, Peter Sagan’s emergence on the big scene has changed this trend. Even though the Slovakian is definitely a fast rider, he is much more than a sprinter. He doesn’t have the top speed to compete with the likes of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish but his great positioning skills mean that he usually finishes in the top 5 in every bunch sprint he contests. Furthermore, his versatility and great climbing skills mean that he can score points in stages where his rivals have no chance.

Those attributes have earned him three consecutive green jerseys and on every occasion he has locked up the win very early in the race. Last year he almost seemed to have it all done and dusted when the race left Great Britain after just three days of racing and it made for a pretty one-sided affair that didn’t please the organizers. Furthermore, ASO didn’t like the fact that Sagan ended the race without a single stage win while Kittel took an impressive four victories. Nonetheless, the German was not even close to challenging Sagan for the green jersey.

This has prompted them to change to rules for the competition to make it more realistic for the fastest sprinters to challenge versatile riders like Sagan. The main change has been made it in the really flat stages where a bunch sprint is the most likely outcome. In the past, there was only 45 points for the stage win but that has been increased to 50 points. However, the main change is the bigger differences between the top positions. While in the past the first three riders scored 45, 35 and 30 points respectively, the points on offer are now 50, 30 and 20. This means that the stage winner can make huge gains and it will be harder to stay in contention by just consistently finishing in the top 3 as you could still lose as much as 30 points to the stage winner. The points systems for the moderately difficult and very difficult stages haven’t been changed at all but there are more of them. With one or two exceptions, only the really flat stages will offer 50 points to the winner while last year’s edition had a few relatively hilly stages that had been categorized as flat.

To make things precise, the riders obtain points according to the following system.:

• for the stages with no particular difficulty (stages 2, 5, 6, 7, 15 and 21): 50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3 and 2 points for the first 15 riders to finish;

• for the “medium mountain” in-line stages (stages 3, 4, 8, 10, 13 and 14): 25,22,19,17,15,13,11,9,7,6,5,4,3 and 2 points for the first 15 riders to finish;

• for the very difficult stages (stages 11, 12, 17, 18, 19 and 20): 20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 points for the first 15 riders to finish

• for the individual time trial stage (stage 1): 20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 points to the first 15 riders to finish

In 2011, the organizers changed the system of intermediate sprints. In the past, every stage had either two or three daily sprints that offered 6, 4 and 2 points to the first three riders across the line. They were usually picked up by escapees and the competition was largely decided at the stage finishes. Since 2011, every stage has only had a single sprint but it offers a lot more points to a lot more riders. The first 15 riders will receive 20,17,15,13,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 points respectively which is unchanged compared to last year.

In the past, the intermediate sprints have often been located late in the stages where some serious climbing has taken the pure sprinters out of contention. This year most of them come relatively early in the stages and Sagan should have less of an advantage. However, several of the intermediate sprints are quite as they are uphill, and this is in favour of the stronger guys.

In the first years, the new intermediate sprint seemed to have a big impact on the outcome as the sprinters almost went full gas every day. However, they are now less important. Unless the sprint comes very early or late in the stage, the big points have usually been taken by the escapees and the difference between the minor positions is minimal. If a 5-riders breakaway has already crossed the line, the fastest sprinter from the peloton will pick up 10 points but the third rider in the sprint will get 8. Hence, there is no real reason to go full gas as it is better to save energy for the finish. What is important is to make the effort to be up there to score a decent number of points though as a rider who skips the intermediate sprints every day will have no chance at the end of the race.

To find the favourite for the green jersey, it is important to analyze the course. This year there aren’t many really flat stages. The first week offers three clear sprint possibilities in stages 2, 5 and 7 and as the forecast doesn’t predict much wind for Sunday’s feared stage, it seems likely that we will get a big bunch kick. However, the first week is always marred by crashes and a few sprinters are likely to miss out on one or more occasions due to bad luck. With so few flat stages, it will be virtually be impossible to win the competition if you come away empty-handed from one of these stages.

The second week only offers one possible sprint finish in stage 15 but it won’t be easy to bring it back to a bunch kick at that late point in the race as the course is pretty hilly. Furthermore, there is a tough climb relatively late in the stage which may rule some of the fast finishers out. Finally, there’s the last stage to Paris which is destined to end in a bunch sprint.

The first week is loaded with difficult classics that could be won by some of the fast men but most of them have been categorized as medium mountain stages, meaning that there won’t be many points on offer. Unlike last year, stage 4 with the cobbles won’t offer the full amount of points which is a disadvantage for John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff. Stage 8 with Mur de Bretagne is probably too hard for both of them but is a realistic target for Sagan and Michael Matthews while stage 3 with the Mur de Huy is out of reach for all of them – even though Sagan is likely to give it a try. A very important aspect is the fact that there will be 50 points on offer in stage 6 whose finale is probably too hard for Cavendish and where it may also be a bit too hard for Kristoff to realistically go for the win even though he should still be up there. In the second weeks, the stage to Rodez is the only other opportunity for the green jersey contenders but the finale is definitely too hard for Cavendish and Kristoff while it is perfect for Sagan and Matthews. The rest of the stages are either for climbers, time triallists or breakaways.

The absence of Marcel Kittel will have a big influence on the outcome. This means that there is less competition in the real bunch sprints which means that Cavendish or André Greipel may dominate those stages. If one of those riders can win 3-4 stages and be in the top 3 in the rest of the five possible bunch kicks, they will score a massive amount of points compared to Sagan who is likely to be in the top 5 every day but probably not in the top 2. On the other hand, they won’t score any points in stage 6, 8 and 14 where Sagan will be one of the favourites. Importantly, the Slovakian can score 50 points in stage 6 to make up for some of his losses in the flat stages while there will be 25 points if he wins the other stages.

The stage with the cobbles is another challenge for Cavendish and Greipel who may have a hard time scoring any points there – even though Greipel has actually done well on the pave in the past. Here Kristoff and Degenkolb are two of the biggest favourites. On paper it is also a very good stage for Sagan but he may be asked to stay with Contador which could be a big setback for his green jersey ambitions.

The presence of Michael Matthews plays a special role. With the many uphill sprints, the Australian would have been a formidable rival for Sagan. However, Orica-GreenEDGE also have Simon Gerrans in their ranks and as those two riders will have to share the stages between, they have already decided not to target the green jersey. This means that Matthews is unlikely to do any of the intermediate sprints and so he won’t win the competition.

However, Sagan finds himself in a special position in 2015. In 2013 and 2014, his Cannondale team was built around him and he had a full team at his disposal. This year he will have very little support as Tinkoff-Saxo is mainly focused on Alberto Contador. That won’t be much of an issue in the bunch sprints where Sagan is usually better off if he handles the positioning aspect himself but it will make it hard to keep things together in the stages that are too hard for the sprinters. However, those stages are also the biggest goals for Orica-GreenEDGE which will be a perfect ally for Sagan. Of course there is a risk that he will get beaten by Matthews but with the small difference between the points for the top positions in those stages, the presence of the Australian is definitely an advantage for Sagan.

In addition to Cavendish and Greipel who are the two fastest sprinters, and Sagan, Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb stand out as the other obvious contenders. Both have had a remarkable season and will excel in the first week which is for classics riders like them. Both of them are faster than Sagan in pure bunch sprints and they are probably the two biggest favourites for the stage on the cobbles. Degenkolb will definitely be a contender in stage 6 and even the Mur de Bretagne might not be too hard for him. However, the German is usually not very good at positioning himself in the bunch sprints. He has had lots of success in the Vuelta where there are almost no sprinters but in the Tour the fight for position is a lot harder. This means that he is very likely to miss completely out in some of the pure bunch sprints and this will make things hard for him. Furthermore, the Giant-Alpecin lead-out train is not as strong as it usually is as both Kittel and final lead-out man Tom Veelers are missing. This year they will have a hard time against the likes of Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal.

Kristoff is probably slightly faster than Degenkolb and unlike the German, he is great at positioning himself. This year his lead-out train with Marco Haller and Jacopo Guarnieri has been fantastic and in this race they will even have Luca Paolini to bring them into position. Kristoff is hugely consistent and is likely to finish in the top 3 in almost every bunch sprint. However, he is unlikely to beat the likes of Cavendish and Greipel, especially as most of the pure sprints come early in the race. If he misses out on the stage win points, the difference between the next positions is much smaller. Sagan will have a couple of stages where he could potentially win the stage while Kristoff will get no points. This will make it harder for Kristoff to win the competition. The key stages for him are stage 4 on the cobbles and stage 15 which is hard and comes late in the race and so offers him a chance to beat the likes of Cavendish and Greipel. Furthermore, it will be very important for him to consistently beat Sagan in the intermediate sprints to constantly gain points on his rival.

In the end, we expect it to come down to a close battle between Sagan, Cavendish and Kristoff and luck will play a huge role as a missed sprint may end all hopes. However, we will put Sagan on top of our list of favourites. The Slovakian may not have much support in this race but the race has unusually many uphill sprints that are tailor-made for him. Furthermore, his great bike-handling skills mean that he has rarely been caught up in a crash during his three years in the Tour and this means that he is likely to finish in the top 5 in every bunch sprint. If he can win the key stage in Le Havre where 50 points are on offer he will be able to erase a big part of the deficit he has in the flat stages. The points system doesn’t favour him but as the course gives little room for the pure sprinters and has many stages that are too hard for Kristoff and Cavendish and realistic targets for him, he will be the man to beat.

We expect his biggest rival to be Cavendish. If Kittel had been here, the Brit would have a hard time but now he could end up dominating the race. The British road race championships proved that he is probably riding better than ever and he has had a very good season with lots of victories. Importantly, he has a very strong lead-out train. In the past, Lotto Soudal have usually been the best but last year they seemed to have lost the edge. This year they are even missing Jurgen Roelandts who has been replaced by Jens Debusschere. The former Belgian doesn’t have the same kind of experience. Cavendish will have the tested train of Matteo Trentin-Mark Renshaw and strong guys like Michal Kwiatkowski and Tony Martin to position him in the finale. If Lotto Soudal haven’t found their former strength, Cavendish could dominate the sprint stages and if he can take four stage wins, it will be very hard for anyone to make up the lost ground.

Kristoff finds himself in between Cavendish and Sagan but the course doesn’t do him too many favours. He would have preferred stages with a lot of early climbing and a flat finish. In those stages, Greipel and Cavendish would be left behind while Kristoff would be able to beat Sagan in a sprint. Only stage 15 may potentially pan out in this way. However, it won’t be impossible for Kristoff to win some of the real bunch sprints, especially late in the race. If he can also win the cobbled stage and Sagan fails to score because he has to stay with Contador, the door is open for the Norwegian to win.

Degenkolb’s lack of consistency in the bunch sprints means that he is more of an outsider. However, if he can’t overcome that disadvantage and consistently be up there on the flat days, he will be a formidable contender. The cobbled stage is perfectly suited to him and he has more opportunities than Kristoff in the hard stages.

On paper, Greipel is one of the two fastest riders in this race. However, neither he nor his team seems to be concerned about the green jersey which is more of a bonus. Last year he never did any of the intermediate sprints and if he has the same approach in 2015, he won’t be a contender. He is not as fast as Cavendish but he is stronger. However, like Kristoff he misses a few stages that would be too hard for Cavendish and manageable for him. Furthermore, he doesn’t seem to recover as well at the end of a grand tour and he has never done well in Paris. To win the competition, he needs to win most of the bunch sprints and to do that his lead-out train which was once the best in the world, has to return to its former level.

A few days ago, we would have made Nacer Bouhanni a top contender. The Frenchman has the speed to be up there with the best on the flat stages and he is great at positioning himself, making him very consistent. Furthermore, he is climbing excellently well at the moment and even seems to be able to match the likes of Sagan and Matthews on the short, punchy climbs. However, he crashed badly in the French championships and there is still only a 90% chance that he will be at the start. As the first week is the most important for this competition, it will be hard for him to be in contention. It will all depend on his recovery. If his injuries are less serious than expected, he may still have a chance.

*** Peter Sagan

** Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff

* John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, André Greipel

Jokers: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard