The Tour de France may barely be over but for the Vuelta contenders it is already time to launch their campaign. The Tour de Pologne has built up a reputation as an invaluable kick start to a bid to win the Spanish grand tour and the line-up suggests that this year will be no different. The race offers seven days of tough racing and while it is still too early for the Vuelta contenders to be in their best form, the race still offers important WorldTour points and has traditionally been the scene of breakthrough performance by some of the sport’s most exciting talents.

 

The European part of the WorldTour calendar is almost solely made up of historical races in cycling’s traditional hotbeds but one event stands out. The Tour de Pologne was the surprise inclusion on the calendar when the UCI introduced the ProTour as the Eastern European country has never been a major powerhouse in cycling. However, the event has flourished over the last few years and the combination of a very talented generation of Polish cyclists and a big event in the finest race series have contributed to a cycling boom in the country.

 

The Tour de Pologne is actually a very old race but it has only made its existence known to the general cycling public in the last decade. First held in 1928, it enjoyed an anonymous life as a national tour that mostly attracted Polish riders and did little to make an impact on the international cycling scene. Up until the 1990s, the winners were almost all national riders but during the last decade of the 1900s, more international riders got aware of the beautiful Polish race.

 

The major breakthrough as an international event came with the lauch of the UCI ProTour in 2005. To avoid building the series of only races in cycling's traditional powerhouses, UCI decided to include the Polish national tour on the list of the world's leading events – a further step in its attempt to globalize cycling. Suddenly, the biggest teams in the world were obliged to enter the race which enjoyed a special position as the only Eastern European event on the sport's finest calendar.

 

Since then the race has maintained its position on the UCI ProTour which later evolved into the UCI WorldTour and gradually it has found its feet. In 2005, it was mostly a race for sprinters with often just one slightly hilly stage to spice things up while most of the stages were excessively long, flat runs through Poland. The race was held in early September and so was seen as a perfect preparation event for the Worlds. Hence, it was no surprise that the organizers managed to attract many classics specialists who needed the race to polish their form for the battle for the rainbow jersey. The winner's list was an illustrious one as Kim Kirchen, Stefan Schumacher, Johan Vansummeren and Jens Voigt took home the first 4 editions of the rejuvenated race.

 

However, those races were all plagued by bad weather, with extreme rain even forcing the riders to neutralize a stage. To avoid those conditions, the race was rescheduled to become a late-July/early-August event in 2009. It lost its status as preparation event for the Worlds but instead gained a new position as an almost indispensable part of the race schedule for those Vuelta contenders who had not raced the Tour. At the same time, the race managed to attract some of the Tour riders who hoped to use their post-Tour condition to pick up a few good results.

 

The race has maintained that role and has also found a much more attractive and thoroughly tested format. For several years, the courses were all very similar, with a couple of flat stages mixed up with a testing stage to Cieszyn and the queen stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska being the fixed core of the race itinerary. With no time trial and no long climbs, it was a race for puncheurs who could score bonus seconds by sprinting up the short, steep climbs in the southern part of the country and it was no surprise to see the race being won by riders like Alessandro Ballan, Daniel Martin, Peter Sagan and Moreno Moser.

 

While those courses have all been rather successful, the organizers used the 2014 edition to develop the race a bit further. To celebrate the relationship with Poland and the Italian Trentino region, the race started in Italy which allowed the race to kick off with two very tough mountain stages. A rest day on Monday brought the race back to its home country where the challenging and well-tested stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska made further ground for aggressive racing. To spice things up even further, the traditional final sprint stage to Krakow had been replaced by a difficult, hilly 39km time trial. For the first time, the race suited the real stage race specialists with a mini-grand tour format.

 

To add further to the spectacle, the race had been chosen as a test event for the UCI to try out new rules that should create more attractive races. First of all the usual 8-rider teams were replaced by reduced 6-rider rosters. Secondly, a rule change had been included to force the GC riders to race more aggressively. A daily points competition offered significant time bonuses for the main contenders who suddenly had an incentive to take part in the intermediate and KOM sprints. However, those experiments didn’t bring a lot of extra excitement to the racing and have been abandoned.

 

Of course the Italian visit was a special event and so the massive climbing that featured in 2013 won’t be repeated. Last year the race ventured into Slovakia for a new summit finish and the time trial on the final day was maintained. With less hard climbing and a crucial race against the clock, the race was more suited to time triallists – a strange evolution as the race was once one of the only WorldTour stage races where TT skills counted for nothing. This year the race is back to its traditional format with four opening sprint stages and the classic stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska. The stage to Zakopane has been made significantly harder, meaning that there are two days of solid climbing. However, the final time trial has been maintained, meaning that the time triallists will probably be favoured just as much as last year.

 

True to its role as a preparation race for the Vuelta, the race has attracted some of the big Vuelta stars that did not race the Tour. This year most of the main stars raced in France and so fewer big riders have been available. However, expected Vuelta protagonists like Fabio Aru, Carlos Betancur, Mikel Nieve, Robert Kiserlovski, Jurgen Van den Broeck and Maxime Monfort will all use the event to build up the condition that should see them shine in Spain in late August and early September.  Robert Gesink, Chirstophe Riblon and Michal Kwiakowski are the main riders coming from the Tour but most of the riders in Poland weren’t present in France. At the same time, the importance of WorldTour points means that the race itself will be highly contested.

 

In recent years, it has given some of the most exciting talents the possibility to pick up a big result. In 2010 Daniel Martin took his only stage race win to date while a certain Peter Sagan denied the Irishman a repeat win one year later. In 2012, the race also came down to a battle between the young guns when the race had temporarily been rescheduled to run concurrently with the Tour, thus forming a perfect warm-up race for the Olympics. Moreno Moser made it two in a row for Liquigas as he won a tight battle with Michal Kwiatkowski and Sergio Henao.

 

Last year the winner was a very popular one as an in-form Rafal Majka delighted the home public by taking the biggest stage race win of his career. After Petr Vakoc had taken a surprise lead by denying the sprinters in stage 2, the Pole stroke in the two hilly stages which he won. In the end, he defended himself excellently in the final time trial to take the win ahead of the Movistar riders Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti who are usually much better time triallists. After a hard Tour de France, Majka is now focusing on the Vuelta and so won’t defend his title. This could open the door for Izagirre and Intxausti who are both back after a successful return to competition in the Klasika Ordizia last Saturday.

 

The course

As said, the race has traditionally suited the puncheurs who could use the medium mountains and their explosive climbing skills to score bonus seconds in a race that was often decided by the tiniest margins. After the grand tour format in 2013, the race has now been turned into one for time triallists and this year the trend will continue. Like last year the race will have two stages for the climbers and overall it seems that the climbing is a bit harder than it was last year. On the other hand, there will only be one uphill finish. Furthermore, the final flat time trial in Krakow has been maintained and it will be the single most decisive stage.

 

At the same time, the sprinters will lick their lips in anticipation of this year’s event. The race has traditionally had several sprint stages in the flat northern part of the country but in 2013 the fast finishers didn’t have many chances to shine. Like last year, the race will again allow the sprinters to shine as the first four stages seem destined to end in bunch sprints even though there’s a bit of climbing in stage 4 which will rule out the pure sprinters.

 

While the sprinters are likely to shine in the first half, the second part is where the GC will be shaped. On Thursday, the traditional stage to Zakopane is back and as it has been made a lot harder, it will be the first chance for the climbers to make a difference.  One day later, the well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska will be the queen stage and it will be the big day for the climbers. On the final day, the time triallists will have their day in the spotlight on a 25km mostly flat route in Krakow. The time trial is shorter and flatter than it was two years ago but is unchanged compared to last year.

 

Stage 1:

In the early years as a WorldTour race, the Tour de Pologne sometimes started with a short team time trial but since it has found a more fixed format, the sprinters have always had their say on the first day – with the very special 2013 edition being the exception. This year it will be no different as the opening stage is a circuit race in the capital of Warsaw where the fast riders are expected to shine.

 

From 2007 to 2011, the capital always hosted the finish of the opening stage but in recent years the race has mainly been held in the southern part of the country. Since then, the race has rarely ventured into the northern part but last year the race finally returned. During their journey to the hilly south, the riders visited Warsaw on stage 2 and so the capital was back after a two-year absence. This year the opening stage will be the only one not to take place in the south and the riders will race a bit earlier than usual to allow for a long travel after the stage.

 

At just 122km, the opening stage is a very short one that is held on a 12.2km circuit in the capital. The riders will start on the eastern shores of the Vistula river which they will cross during their 4.7km neutral ride. As soon as they get to the finish for the first time, the real start will be given and from there the riders will do 10 laps of the circuit.

 

The circuit is almost rectangular with a long straight section along the river and has very few technical challenges. Furthermore, it is almost completely flat. However, the final 2km are a lot more difficult. After taking a right-hand turn with 2km to go, the riders face a very tricky section with numerous sweeping bends before they get to the top of a small climb just before the flamme rouge. After the passage of the red kite, there are two 90-degree turns in quick succession, another sweeping left-hand turn and finally a sharp right-hand turn less than 200m from the finish. There will be KOM points on offer on the small climb during the 7th lap while there will be an intermediate sprint at the finish at the end of the 9th lap.

 

The Tour de Pologne has always been a festival for sprinters and it doesn’t make much sense to go to the race without a fast finisher. Hence, the start list is loaded with fast guys who will be eager to strike on the opening day, get a stage win and wear the yellow jersey. Hence, it is very hard to imagine that the opening stage won’t come down to a big bunch sprint in the streets of Warsaw. With Marcel Kittel in the race, Giant-Alpecin are expected to do most of the work but the final battle will be more about positioning than speed. The circuit is pretty easy but for some reason, the organizers have decided to make the finale very technical. The climb won’t be much of a problem but the many turns will make lead-outs crucial in the fight for the opening stage win in the Tour de Pologne.

 

As said, Warsaw last hosted the Tour de Pologne in 2014 when Petr Vakoc took a hugely surprising solo win on a day that was expected to be for the sprinters. In 2011 when Marcel Kittel took his first ever WorldTour victory on the opening day before going on to win another three stages of the race. In 2010, Jacopo Guarnieri was the fastest in the opening bunch sprint while Borut Bozic was the first winner in 2009. In 2007 and 2008, the race opened with a team time trial in the capital and they were won by Lampre-Fondital and Team CSC-Saxo Bank respectively, with Roberto Longo and Lars Bak becoming the first race leaders.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that were left disappointed on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the second stage is another one for the fast riders. After a travel overnight, the riders are now in the hilly southern part of the country but they will wait a few days before they go into the hills. That will give the sprinters a few more days to chase success before they head into survival mode.

 

With the long travel, it is no surprise that the second stage is another short one. At just 146km, it brings the riders from Czestochowa to Dabrowa Gornicza and is another almost completely flat affair. The first part of the stage consists of an easterly run with a few rolling hills before the riders turn to the south and heads towards the finishing city. Along the way, they will contest an intermediate sprint after 55.4km of racing.

 

The Tour de Pologne stages almost always end on a finishing circuit and it will be no different for this stage. As we get closer to the circuit, the terrain gets flatter but for some reason, the organizers have decided to have their only two KOM sprints in this part. They come at the 78.4km and 89km marks respectively and then there’s a second intermediate sprint at the 91.1km mark before the riders enter the circuit 2.3km later.

 

The first passage of the finish line comes after 96km of racing and the final part of the race is made up of 5 laps of the 10km circuit. It is a very straightforward affair as it consists of a long road with just three roundabouts along the way. Having travelled 5km in one direction, the riders will turn around and head back along the same road in the opposite direction. The U-turn comes with just 1.7km to go and then the riders will go straight through roundabouts just before the flamme rouge and 300m from the finish. The circuit is almost completely flat.

 

Last year the sprinters were denied in the second stage but unless the weather is really bad, it is hard to imagine that this won’t be another bunch sprint. Stage 4 could be too tough for some of the fast guys so this is the penultimate chance for the pure sprinters. Furthermore, we now have a race leader whose team will be keen to defend the position at the top of the leaderboard so there should be plenty of interest in controlling the stage. Unlike stage 1, this stage has a non-technical finish so this is a real power sprint where the fastest guys can really shine.

 

The race last visited the finishing city in 2011 when Marcel Kittel enjoyed his WorldTour breakthrough by taking a second consecutive stage win, holding off Heinrich Haussler and Graeme Brown in a bunch sprint. One year earlier it was another bunch sprint in the city and this time it was André Greipel taking the win, with race leader Allan Davis and the late Wouter Weylandt completing the podium.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

With a bit of climbing in stage 4, there is may only be one opportunity left for the sprinters in this year’s Tour de Pologne. It comes on the third day of the race which should offer the spectators a third consecutive bunch sprint before the race heads into hillier terrain.

 

One of the classic stages in the Tour de Pologne is the one that finishes in Katowice which has been visited every year since 2010. This year the city will welcome the event on the third day and it will use largely the same circuit that has been used every time. A few modifications have been made to increase the length from 12.3km to 14.7km but it won’t change much.

 

Stage 3 is 166km long and brings the riders from Zawiercie to Katowice. The first part is made up of a long, flat westerly run before the riders turn to the south to approach the finishing city. During this part, they will contest the first special sprint of the race at the 55.3km mark while there will be intermediate sprints at the 72.1km, 91.8km and 102.4km marks respectively. The terrain will be very easy with only a few rolling hills.

 

The riders will enter the finishing circuit after 106.2km of racing and after crossing the finish line just 1km later, they will end the stage by doing four laps of the 14.7km circuit that is almost completely flat. However, there are two small climbs that will be used to hand out KOM points. The hardest comes in the first half of the circuit and will offer points on the final lap while the second ascent comes just 1.2km from the finish and will offer points on the second lap.

 

The circuit is pretty technical and has several corners interspersed with long, straight roads. However, the finale is not too complicated. The riders will turn left just before the 2km mark and then go straight through a roundabout before they head up one of the small climbs. The summit comes just before the flamme rouge which is located in a roundabout where the riders will turn around to get onto the finishing straight which is slightly descending.

 

This could be the final opportunity for the sprinters and so there is little chance that they will miss out on the chance to sprint for the win. A sprinting hierarchy is likely to be established and it would be no surprise to find Marcel Kittel in yellow at this point in the race. His Giant-Alpecin team will do their utmost to set up another sprint finish in a finale that suits him pretty well. The late climb has often been used to make late attacks but it is no major challenge and even though it comes a bit closer to the finish than it has done in the past, it is unlikely to prevent the sprinters from having their say. The downhill sprint on a long, straight road is usually one of the fastest in the WorldTour and will be the perfect scene for the riders with the highest speed.

 

Last year it was Jonas Van Genechten who took the biggest win of his career by holding off Jacopo Guarnieri and Luka Mezgec. One year earlier Taylor Phinney did what most thought to be impossible by making a brave move and narrowly holding off the sprinters before Steele Von Hoff beat  Yauheni Hutarovich in the sprint for second. In 2012, Aidis Kruopis prevailed in a bunch sprint while Marcel Kittel was the fastest in 2011. In 2010, Hutarovich took a big WorldTour win when he beat Lucas Haedo and Allan Davis in the Polish city.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

After three days in flat terrain, it is finally time for some climbing in what will be a warm-up for the two hardest stages on Thursday and Friday. With the climbs coming pretty far from the finish and a flat finish, it won’t be a day for the GC riders to make a difference but stage 4 will definitely create the first selection in the Polish WorldTour race.

 

What will make the race even tougher is the distance. The Tour de Pologne has been known for its many very long sprint stages. This year they have been shortened significantly but there’s still a pretty solid ride in store on stage 4 as it covers a massive 220km. It brings the riders from Jaworzno to Nowy Sacz where the riders will end the race with their usual circuit finish.

 

In the first part of the stage, the riders will travel in a southerly direction along mainly flat roads until they get to the city of Wadowice after 40.8km of racing. Here they will contest the only intermediate sprint and turn to the east to approach the finishing city. The roads are still flat but gradually the terrain gets more difficult as they venture into the hills.

 

The feed zone is located at the 96km mark and then it is time for the climbing to start. The next 32km are almost all uphill and leads to the top of the first category 2 climb of the race. Then it’s a fast descent before the riders reach the bottom of the first category 1 climb whose summit is located 61.4km from the finish.

 

The riders will now descend towards the finishing city but instead of going to the finish line, they will turn around to head up the same category 1 climb from a different direction. The summit will be crested with 37.3km to go and then it’s time to again descend to the finishing city. There will be a special sprint with 28.6km to go and the riders will get onto the finishing circuit 100m later.

 

Five kilometres later, it is time for the first passage of the finish line which signals the start of the first of 3 laps of the 7.6km finishing circuit. It is completely flat and very straightforward, with only a few technical challenges. The riders will make a U-turn with 1.7km to go before they go straight through a roundabout with 700m to go. Then it’s a straight road to the finish.

 

The climbs are pretty tough and should be enough to take the sprinters out of contention. It is not completely impossible that some of the GC riders will test themselves as there is very little chance for the climbers to make a difference in this year’s race. However, the summit of the final climb comes almost 40km from the finish so it will be virtually impossible to make any lasting damage. Instead, it is likely to come down to a reduced bunch sprint. What could change the script is the fast that the sprint teams are unlikely to control the race and so it is not obvious who’s going to do the hard work in such a long stage. On the other hand, the race is likely to be decided by very small time gaps so the GC teams can’t allow a break to stay away. They are likely to take control but if a stage is going to create a surprise winner of this year’s race, this is the day that could cause an upset.

 

Nowy Sacz has not hosted a stage finish since the race became part of the ProTour in 2005.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

After four days with flat finales, it is finally time for the first serious climbing day in this year’s Tour de Pologne when the riders tackle the stage to Zakopane which has often welcomed the city. In the past, it has always had the same layout and been a perfect stage for strong sprinters and puncheurs who have excelled in the moderately hilly terrain and the uphill sprint as the climbs were never very steep. However, the stage will be markedly different in 2015 as the climbing has been made a lot tougher and this year it should be a day for the GC riders to make their mark.

 

At 223km, it is another very long stage that brings the riders from the previous finishing city of Nowy Sacz to Zakopane. The first part of the stage is made up of a predominantly flat southwesterly journey but the road gradually starts to rise as the riders approach the finishing circuit which they will enter after 81.6km of racing.

 

The circuit is 54.3km long and includes three climbs. Before getting to the finish line, the riders will do the final 32.6km and that includes two of the climbs. First it is the category 1 Zab ascent which is 4km long with kilometres averaging 4,0%, 7,5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint. Later is it time for the category 1 Gubalowka which is 4.2km long and has kilometres that average 9.2%, 6.2%, 7.8% and 4.8% respectively. The steepest section of 18.4% comes at the bottom. From the top, there are still 12.9km to the finish.

 

After the first passage of the line, the riders will do two full laps of the circuit. The first part is almost all uphill and culminates at the top of the category 1 Glodowka climb which is 8km long and mostly averages around 4-5%. There’s a flat section near the top before it ramps up for the final kilometre where it reaches it maximum gradient of 8.8%. The summit comes with 35.5km to go and then the riders will descend to the bottom of the Zab climb. The final two ascents will be tackled with 20.0km and 12.9km to go respectively. The final part is mainly descending but the final 3km are very slightly uphill. There are two turns in quick succession just before the flamme rouge but the final kilometre is straight. There will be intermediate sprints on the final lap with 24.5km and 10.2km to go respectively.

 

The climbers don’t have many chances to make a difference in this year’s Tour de Pologne so they need to make the most of the two opportunities they have got. One of them is stage 5 which has some very significant climbing. The first climb is not very hard but to the two ascents inside the final 25km are definitely perfect opportunities to go on the attack. With a mostly downhill finish, it won’t be impossible for a single rider or a small group to make it to the finish even though the final 3km favour a bigger group. At the same time, the selection could leave many teams with limited domestique resources and this opens the door for late attacks in the final 3km which will be very hard to control. A sprint from a small group or success for a late attack is the most likely outcomes of what will be a tough day in the Polish hills.

 

Zakopane hosted stage finishes in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013 but in those editions it was the well-known, easier final circuit that suited the strong sprinters. That is clearly reflected in the list of winners. In 2013, Thor Hushovd powered to an uphill sprint win by beating Matthieu Ladagnous and Daniele Ratto while Ben Swift was faster than Elia Viviani in 2012. In 2011, it was Peter Sagan who laid the foundations for his overall win by taking the stage victory and in 2009 Edvald Boasson Hagen was the fastest from a 19-rider group. In 2008, Jens Voigt rode away to a solo win that later would secure him the overall win.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

It has become a tradition for the Tour de Pologne to have the classic stage on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska on the penultimate day of the race. It made its debut in 2010 and since then it has been on the course every year and so it well-known by many of the riders. This year there is no doubt that it will the queen stage of the race and with the only uphill finish in the race, this is the day for the climbers to really make their mark.

 

The exact lay-out of the stage varies a bit from year to year. The 2015 edition of the stage is 174km long, brings the riders from the Bukovina Terma Hotel to the finish on the top of the Bukowina Tatrzanska climb and is identical to last year’s stage. Having started the finish at the start-finish area, the riders cover the first part of the main 38.4km circuit before making a small digression to head to the city of Zakopane. Here they will do three laps of a slightly hilly 5.3km circuit and contest a special sprint on the third lap before returning to the circuit to complete it and make it back to the finish line.

 

The rest of the stage is now made up of three laps of the circuit. It consists of three climbs and their subsequent descents with no flat roads in between. The category 1 Gliczarow Gorny (5.5km, 5.7%) is the first. The first half is relatively easy but it gets much steeper near the top and has a tough 21.5% section at its midpoint. Next in line is the category 1 Zab climb (4.5km, 5.8%) which the riders already did in the previous stage. The kilometres average 4,0%, 7,5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and it has a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint. The final difficulty has not been categorized but the 5.0km ascent with an average gradient of 4.4% has the finish line located at its top. After an easy start, the third kilometre is the hardest with an 8.1% gradient and an 11.5% maximum but the final two kilometres are much easier at 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. The finish line comes at the end of a long only slightly winding road. There will be an intermediate sprint 31.4km from the finish on the final lap.

 

The circuit has been used in the four most recent editions. In 2010, Bauke Mollema attacked from a long distance to open up a 7-second gap on a small group at the finish, in 2011 Daniel Martin put 1 second into his nearest chaser Wout Poels while race leader Peter Sagan lost 13 seconds, and in 2012 Sergio Henao was reeled in by Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski just on the line, with the Italian coming out triumphant. In 2013, Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the final lap and made it up to the remnants of a big early break. Darwin Atapuma was able to hang onto his wheel and while the Frenchman rode himself into yellow, the Colombian took the stage win. 22 seconds later Leopold König narrowly held off Diego Ulissi who won the sprint of a 15-rider group of favourites. Last year it was a 12-rider group that reached the finish and Rafal Majka was able to open a 10-second advantage over Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the final climb.

 

The climbs may all have some steep sections but their average gradients are not fearsome and the final few kilometres are pretty easy. In fact, only Riblon and Majka have been able to make a bigger difference and the time gaps will definitely be a matter of seconds. It’s a day more for puncheurs than real climbers but the riders who excel on the climbs need to gain as much time as possible ahead of the final time trial. Usually, the final lap is very aggressive and turns into an elimination race as not one can allow themselves to wait for the final climb if they want to gain a significant amount of time. In any case, it will be important to distance the best time triallists and this means that many teams have an interest in making the race hard. At the same time, the 2013 edition of the race proved that the circuit is very hard to control and it won’t be impossible for someone to do what Riblon did two years ago.

 

 

 

Stage 7:

In 2013, the organizers introduced the novelty of holding a time trial on the final day and apparently they liked the idea. Last year the final stage was again a race against the clock and again Krakow was the scene for the end of the race. In fact, the race has ended here every year since 2008. This year the final stage will be the exact same that ended last year’s race.

 

There are not many similarities between the 2013 and 2014/2015 time trials. At 37km, the 2013 course was longer as the riders will only have to cover 25km in this year’s edition of the race. Furthermore, the 2013 stage was held on a point-to-point course that was pretty hilly and included some nasty climbs. This year’s stage takes place on a completely flat out-and-back course that is held entirely within the city. There are a few turns at the start and the finish but otherwise, it is made up of long, straight roads. After just a few kilometres, the riders get to main road which will be the scene of most of the stage. They will simply travel along the flat road for several kilometres until they turn around and head along the same road back to the finish. In the end, they will approach the line from a slightly different direction, meaning that there are another few turns in the finale.

 

This stage definitely suits the biggest specialists and for the climbers, it could be a very costly day. There is little doubt it will be the most important stage in determining the overall winner of the Tour de Pologne and if one of the best time triallists can limit his losses reasonably in stages 5 and 6, he can do a lot of damage on this stage. With stage 7 set to decide the overall victory, the 2014 Tour de Pologne seems to be one for the time triallists and no one will win the race without possessing decent TT skills.

 

The fact that the course suits the specialists is evident from last year’s results. Here it was Kristof Vandewalle who beat Adriano Malori by 3 seconds while Stephen Cummings was third at 10 seconds. The best of the riders in winning contention was Ion Izagirre who was seventh with a time loss of 29 seconds while Rafal Majka’s 13th place was enough to take the overall win. In 2013 Bradley Wiggins beat Fabian Cancellara by almost a minute in a true demonstration of force. Otherwise, the final stage has been one for the sprinters and it has been completely dominated by Germans. Robert Förster won the first battle in 2008 while André Greipel was the fastest in both 2009 and 2010. Marcel Kittel took a fourth stage win on the final day in 2011 while in 2012 his teammate John Degenkolb became the latest sprinter to win in Krakow.

 

 

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne is one of the harder races to predict as most riders enter the race just off the back of a mid-season break and many riders haven't raced since their national championships. Some may have done the Tour de Wallonie or the Tour of Austria but their conditions are all a bit up in the air and not even the teams themselves have a clear idea of what to expect. For most of the biggest names, the race is also mostly a preparation for upcoming bigger objectives and so it is no surprise that some of the young guns have beaten all the stage race stars in recent editions. Only a few Tour de France riders have decided to start the race and it is also hard to know how they will cope with a tough one-week race on the back of a very hard three-week Tour.

 

Most of the recent editions of the race have been suited to puncheurs who excel on the short, not very steep climbs in the southern part of Poland, and this is reflected in the list of winners. The 2013 race was one for the true stage race specialists who can both climb and time trial but last year’s edition was more for the time triallists.

 

This year’s course is very similar to the one that was used 12 months ago. Again there are two climbing stages and it all ends with the exact same time trial. The queen stage is the same as the one that featured last year ago but the second hilly stage seems a bit tougher than the one that kicked off the climbing action last year. That should be enough to create bigger time gaps but as there is no uphill finish in that stage, there probably won’t be any gaps between the very best riders in stage 5. This means that they will have to make the difference in the well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska. While the heavy guys usually lose a lot of time on that day, the difference between the best is a matter of seconds. Only a superior rider can create bigger gaps in that stage, with Rafal Majka’s performance in 2014 probably being the best ever on the short, steep climbs in that area. However, the biggest time gaps in the top of the GC will definitely be made in the final time trial and so no one will win this race without possessing solid TT abilities. As the TT is completely flat and non-technical, it is not a stage that offers the climbers many chances to limit their losses.

 

The amount of climbing means that the heaviest specialists have no chance but a strong time triallist can allow himself to lose a few seconds in the finales of the two climbing stages as the time trial is long enough to take it back. The final factor that could come into play is bonification. There are 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders across the finish line and 3, 2 and 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints. A fast sprint is definitely an advantage and a good puncheur can potentially gain 20 seconds in the two climbing stages which will be a significant advantage for the time trial. Nonetheless, the most important set of skills required to win this race is a solid pair of TT legs.

 

The most consistent rider in recent editions of the race has been Ion Izagirre. The talented Basque has finished second in both 2013 and 2014 and this year he is aiming for the top step of the podium. Izagirre has been knocking on the door for a big WorldTour win for a while and the Polish race is where he has been closest to success. Unfortunately, that race is generally regarded as one of the easier WorldTour stage races and he has had a harder time in the biggest one week races.

 

However, Izagirre has really stepped up his level in 2015. He delivered his best performance in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he finished third overall despite having worked hard for Nairo Quintana whom he even beat in the final GC. In fact, it is hard not to be left with the impression that Izagirre could have won the race if he had been the outright captain right from the start.

 

The performance in his home race created big expectations for the Giro d’Italia where he was aiming for the GC in a grand tour for the first time in his career. However, the race ended as a huge disappointment and things didn’t get any better when he abandoned the Tour de Suisse due to fatigue despite having had a very promising start in the prologue.

 

After a mid-season break, Izagirre seems to be back on track. He rode to a solid second in his comeback race Klasika Ordizia last Saturday and this proves that he is already back in form. This sets him up for a great performance in Poland and he should find the course to his liking. He may not be a puncheur but history proves that he can do well on short, steep climb. He was strong in Pais Vasco where the climbs are of a similar nature and last year he was third in both the climbing stages in Poland.

 

More importantly, Izagirre is a very good time triallist who rarely misses the top 10 on hilly courses. Unfortunately, the time trial in Krakow is much flatter and he has generally struggled a bit on the very flat courses. However, he still rode to a solid 7th in this TT 12 months ago. This year he was also 8th in the Tour de Suisse prologue which was similarly flat and so it seems that he is getting better in the flat time trials too. Last year he would have won the race if he had not been up against an outstanding Majka and this year he is obviously a lot stronger. It is time for Izagirre to take a big WorldTour win and he is our favorite to win the Tour de Pologne.

 

Usually, local hero Michal Kwiatkowski would have been the overwhelming favourite for this race. The course is simply tailor-made for the world champion who will be extra motivated by the fact that he is riding on home soil. However, no one really knows how Kwiatkowski is going and this makes it very hard to know what to expect.

 

In general, he has been far from his best level in 2015. He may have won the Amstel Gold Race but that was more due to a fast sprint than solid climbing skills. In fact, he was far off the pace in the harder Ardennes classics and his summer campaign was a mere disaster. Nothing worked for him in the Tour de Suisse and even though he did some solid attacks during the Tour de France, his form didn’t allow him to be more than a domestique in a strong Etixx-QuickStep team. To make things even worse, he even abandoned the race due to fatigue.

 

It’s really a shame if Kwiatkowski is still not at 100% as he could not have designed a better course. Among the GC riders in this race, he is by far the best time triallists, especially on a flat course like this. Furthermore, he is one of the best Ardennes riders in the world and so the short, steep climbs in his home country are perfect for him. To make things even better, he is very fast in a sprint which would probably make him the favourite for both climbing stages.

 

There is no doubt that Kwiatkowski will be extremely motivated to do well in his home race but it won’t be enough if the legs aren’t there. There is a chance that two weeks of grand tour racing and two weeks of rest have served him well and he should be able to win this race even if he is not at 100%. However, it requires a dramatic turnaround for him to suddenly be in contention for a win in a WorldTour race and nothing suggests that it is going to happen. If he is at his best, Kwiatkowski could potentially win the final three stages and turn out to be the dominant figure in this race. If not, it will be another disappointment for the talented Pole.

 

With a hard Giro d’Italia now in his legs, Diego Ulissi’s time of getting back into the race rhythm after his suspension is over and now it is time to return to his former level. He still managed to win a stage in the Italian grand tour but he was obviously not at the outstanding level that he showed 12 months earlier. Since then he went on to take fifth overall in the Tour de Slovenie and most notably he was a great third in the very hard Italian championships (and is likely to end up in second when Francesco Reda gets stripped of his result due to a positive doping control).

 

Ulissi recently returned to competition in the Trofeo Matteotti where he finished a solid sixth in a race that was a bit too easy for him. His big goal is the World Championships and the best way to prove himself for national coach Davide Cassani is by show himself in Poland. Two years ago he won the opening stage but unfortunately that year’s race was harder than usual and the Italian dropped out of contention in the queen stage. This year’s course suits him much better.

 

Ulissi is one of the best puncheurs in the world and this makes him tailor-made for the two climbing stages which he could potentially win. That would offer him a solid 20-second time bonus that will be crucial in the final time trial. The Italian is no specialist but on short courses he is usually pretty strong. He has taken third in the Tour de Slovenie time trial twice in a row and he has been strong in the Tirreno-Adriatico TT too. Most notably he was a surprise second in last year’s long Giro TT but that course was a lot more technical and hillier than the one he will find in Poland. Stage 7 is probably a bit too much about power for Ulissi to be among the best but he should be able to do reasonably well. If he can pick up bonus seconds in the two hilly stages and maybe even in stage 4, he will be hard to beat in this race.

 

Usually one would never have mentioned Jurgen Van den Broeck as a potential winner of a race that is largely decided in time trials. However, the 2015 season has marked a dramatic change for the Belgian who is a former junior world champion in the discipline. Since he turned professional, the time trial has always been his weakness while he has turned into one of the best climbers in the world. However, things have been turned around.

 

In 2015, he has still not shown that he can return to the climbing level he last showed in the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné and which allowed him to finish fourth in the 2012 Tour de France. Instead, he has turned into a real time trial specialist. He was a surprise fourth in the Tour de Romandie TT and proved that this result was no fluke by taking 7th in the long Giro time trial. The latter result was made even more impressive by the fact that the GC riders did the stage in windier conditions and so were generally off the pace. He topped it all when he won the Belgian time trial championships in dominant fashion.

 

The latter result was remarkable as the race was held on a flat, non-technical course that is similar to the Tour de Pologne TT. Van den Broeck now seems to have the power to match the best in this kind of challenge and this makes him one to watch in Poland. Furthermore, he remains a very good climber who still managed to take 12th in the Giro despite suffering from illness in the decisive third week. He is not very explosive but should be able to limit his losses in stages 5 and 6 and then he will be ready to strike in the TT. He hasn’t raced since the national TT championships and so his form is very uncertain. However, he is rarely too far away from his best and as he is building condition for the Vuelta, we expect him to be at a decent level.

 

Only one rider from the top 10 at the Tour de France has decided to make use of his post-Tour condition in Poland. This year there will be no Vuelta for Robert Gesink and so the Dutchman will continue to ride hard in August by lining up at the Tour de Pologne. After years of bad luck and personal issues, he finally returned to his highest level in France where he rode to an excellent sixth place, the best performance by a rider who is not a former grand tour winner.

 

Now Gesink aims for more success in Poland and he should actually find the course to his liking. His experiences in time trials have been pretty mixed but now he seems to be back on track. A few years ago he showed massive improvement in the discipline but while he went through a difficult period, his TT skills got worse. However, his last two time trials have been great. He was 10th in the Tour de Suisse and he topped it with and 11th place in the Tour TT which is not too different from the one he faces in Poland.

 

Gesink is known as a climber who is best suited to the longer ascents. However, he is actually pretty strong on short climbs too. It is hard to forget how he beat all the puncheurs with a powerful uphill sprint in the GP Quebec two years ago. Hence, he should be able to mix it up with the best in the hilly stages and if he can continue his TT progress, he will be a strong contender for the overall. Much will depend on his recovery from the Tour, especially as he seemed to suffer a bit at the end of the race, but Ion Izagirre, Rafal Majka and Christophe Riblon have all proved that it is perfectly possible to go on from the Tour to finish on the podium in Poland.

 

Sky go into this race with Sergio Henao as the captain. However, the Colombian is not really suited to this course. Instead, their best card could be Vasil Kiryienka. The Belarusian is known as one of the strongest domestiques in the peloton but he rarely gets a chance to ride for himself. However, this race could be his big chance to obtain an overall victory in a WorldTour stage race.

 

Kiryienka is a solid climber but he is definitely not explosive. Hence, the hilly stages are not suited to him. However, if he is on form, he should be able to keep up with the best on stage 5 which has a flat finale. He may lose a bit of time in the queen stage which is for the punchy climbers but he should be able to take back a lot of time in the final time trial. He has developed into one of the best time triallists in the world, with top 4 finishes in the 2012, 2013 and 2014 World Championships. Most recently, he won the long Giro d’Italia time trial and the TT at the European Games. His form is uncertain as he hasn’t raced since the end of June and you never know how Kiryienka is going. However, if he is on fire, he could win both the final time trial and the overall.

 

Ilnur Zakarin has had a remarkable WorldTour debut, most notably with his overall win in the Tour de Romandie. In the Swiss race, he beat the likes of Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana and Vincenzo Nibali to create a huge surprise and he went on to win a stage in the Giro d’Italia. He was pretty inconsistent in his grand tour debut but he has clearly proved that he has the potential to become one of the best stage race riders in the world.

 

Now he is focusing on the Tour de Pologne but the race is not tailor-made for him. Even though he is actually pretty explosive and has a solid sprint, he would clearly have preferred longer climbs. He is a former Russian time trial champion and rode an outstanding TT in Romandie where he would even have beaten Tony Martin if he had not had a mechanical. However, he has lost a lot of weight and has a harder time on the courses that are all about power. Hence, the final stage in this race could be a bit too tough for him. Furthermore, he didn’t really shine in the Tour de Wallonie. However, Zakarin is a very big talent and if his legs have come around in time for the start, he will definitely be good enough to win this race.

 

Astana go into this race with Fabio Aru as their biggest name. However, his is not a race for the Italian who will only use it to get back into the racing rhythm. Instead, it is much better suited to his teammate who could get a rare chance to chase some personal success. The Italian has all the qualities to shine on this course. He is a good climber and is actually pretty fast in a sprint which makes him perfectly suited to the shorter climbs in Poland. More importantly, he is a very good time triallist. Of course he would have preferred a hillier course but he usually defends himself well on flat courses too. His condition is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced for a while and last year he was not at his best at this time of the year. On the other hand, he was really strong in the Vuelta a Burgos two years ago so if he is back at that level, he will be a contender in this race.

 

Benat Intxausti finished third in this race in 2014 and now he hopes to do even better. He is part of a very strong Movistar team that has several cards to play and even though Izagirre is obviously the captain there should be room for Intxausti to chase success too. The Basque is hugely inconsistent but this year he has generally been riding a lot better than he did in 2014. He won a stage in the Giro and even though he failed in the GC, he still left a solid mark on the race. Last year he proved that he is very strong on the Polish climbs as he was second in both hilly stages. In the past, he was also a great time triallist but he has only been able to shine on the very hilly courses. The flat time trials have never been for him. Last year he could only manage 15th in the final TT and he needs to do better than that if he wants to win the race overall. However, with an improved level, it won’t be impossible.

 

Sergio Henao came close to the win in this race in 2012 but came up short against Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski despite being the best climber in the race. Now he aims to finally achieve that elusive overall victory but it won’t be easy on this TT heavy course. He is perfectly suited to the short punchy climbs and he will definitely be one of the favourites for the queen stage. He has had a remarkable comeback from injury and was very strong in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. He was not at the same level in the Tour de Suisse and the Tour of California and this makes it a bit uncertain what we can expect. However, Henao is never far from his best level and if he is on fire, he can gain time in the two hilly stages. He will have to defend it in the time trial which won’t be easy. He is definitely not a time triallist but he did a good TT on the flat course in California. Unfortunately, this course is a bit more about power and it will be tough for the tiny Colombian. Nonetheless, Majka has proved that it is possible for a small climber to defend himself well in Krakow.

 

Christophe Riblon is mostly known as a stage hunter in the grand tours but for some reason he has always done well in the GC in the Tour de Pologne. In 2013, he was agonizingly close to the overall win as he entered the final time trial with the yellow jersey but dropped to third after the race against the clock. Last year he was again in the mix as he finished fourth. This year he has had a hard time as he has been far from his best level and his legs only started to come around just before the start of the Tour. However, he used the French race to build his condition and he was actually pretty strong in the third week. However, he still failed to reach the level that he has shown in the past two years. Furthermore, he is not the time triallist that he once was so it will be hard for him to continue his run of success in Poland.

 

Jurgen Van den Broeck is not the only Lotto Soudal card. Like in the Giro, Maxime Monfort will be a second option. A few years ago we would have made the Belgian one of the favourites for this race. In 2011, he finished sixth in the Vuelta and was always in the top 10 in hilly time trials. However, he is no longer at that level and even though he showed signs of improvement by finishing 11th in the Giro, he is still far from his previous level. On paper the Ardennes-like climbs suit him well and he is still a decent time triallist. However, he needs to step up his level significantly to win the race.

 

There is no doubt that Sergey Chernetskii is a huge talent but the Russian has been extremely inconsistent. At some points he has shown glimpses of is great promises but usually he has been far from his best level. Last autumn he really showed signs of progress when he rode strongly in the Tour of Beijing but the 2015 season and his Giro d’Italia debut have been disappointments even though he won a stage in the Volta a Cataluya. However, this race is really tailor-made for him. He has a fast sprint and is strong on shorter climbs. Furthermore, he is a solid time triallist so this could be the race for him to finally get his breakthrough.

 

Much was expected from Riccardo Zoidl when he turned professional last year. Things looked promising in the first months but he has never really rebounded from a broken collarbone sustained in last year’s Strade Bianche. He has been unable to fulfill his stage racing potential and seems to have dropped down a bit in the Trek hierarchy. However, he should be the GC rider for this race. He is not an explosive climber and is not great at positioning himself which is usually important for these ascents. However, he is a great time triallist so if he can limit his losses in stages 5 and 6 he will be ready to strike.

 

We are curious to find out what Alexey Lutsenko can do in this race. The former U23 world champion is getting stronger and stronger and finally got his first WorldTour win on a stage in the Tour de Suisse where he rode very strongly. He is not a rider for the high mountains but he should be able to do well on the shorter climbs in this race and with his fast sprints, he may be able to take some bonus seconds. He is a great rider for shorter time trials and so the final stage may be a bit too long for him. However, if he can continue his progress, he could create a surprise.

 

It’s about time that we stop mentioning Moreno Moser as a possible winner of the biggest races. The Italian was once regarded as a huge talent but since he won the 2013 Strade Bianche, he has been seen most at the back of the peloton. However, there have been small signs that he is getting better and earlier this month he finally broke his victory drought when he won a reduced bunch sprint in the Tour de Pologne. He still hasn’t proved that he can match the best on the climbs but don’t forget that he is a former winner of this race. He is fast in a sprint and strong on shorter climbs which makes him tailor-made for the two hilly stages and he is a former winner for the queen stage. When he won the race in 2011, there was no time trial but he is a great time triallist too even though he has mostly excelled on shorter courses.

 

His teammate Davide Formolo is one of the biggest stage race talents in the world and he really grew to game when he won a stage in the Giro d’Italia. However, that performance can’t erase the impression that he has faded quite a bit since his impressive debut season. Furthermore, this race is not made for him as he is not a great time triallist but it is too early to write him completely off. The biggest talents often benefit from getting through their first grand tour and Formolo could come out a long stronger in Poland and do what Majka did last year.

 

Ben Hermans will be the BMC leader in this race. The Belgian has had a great 2015 with a big victory in Brabantse Pijl and a stage win in the Tour de Yorkshire. He recently rode to a strong second place in the Tour of Austria, proving that he is great condition. Usually he is very good in this terrain but as there are better climbers than him and as he is no big time triallist, it will be hard to come out on top.

 

Giant-Alpecin are mostly here for the sprint but their American Lawson Craddock will still be given the chance to go for the GC. The American has given indications of his potential, most notably with his third place in last year’s Tour of California. However, he has been unable to live up to the expectations since then and rode pretty poorly in California this year. However, the importance of the time trial means that the course suits him well.

 

Ulissi is clearly the best card for Lampre-Merida but they also have local rider Premlyslaw Niemiec who finished 5th twelve months ago. However, it seems that time has caught up with the Pole who is no longer at his previous level. This year he has been pretty anonymous and it is hard to imagine that he will suddenly return to his former level. Furthermore, the importance of the TT is a clear disadvantage. On the other hand, this race is a big goal for him and he is likely to be better prepared than most. Last year he did the time trial of his life and if he can repeat that performance, he could create a surprise.

 

Finally, Fabio Aru deserves a mention. We would be very surprised if the Italian is among the best on the climbs. In fact he is likely to do what he did last year: work as a domestique while building form for the Vuelta. Furthermore, the course doesn’t suit him as he can’t match the best in the time trial. On the other hand, he is the best climber in the field so if he already on form, he has the skills to do what Majka did last year.

 

***** Ion Izagirre

**** Michal Kwiatkowski, Diego Ulissi

*** Jurgen Van den Broeck, Robert Gesink, Vasil Kiryienka, Ilnur Zakarin, Dario Cataldo, Benat Intxausti, Sergio Henao

** Christophe Riblon, Maxime Monfort, Sergey Chernetskii, Riccardo Zoidl, Alexey Lutsenko, Moreno Moser, Davide Formolo, Ben Hermans, Lawson Craddock, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Fabio Aru

* David Lopez, Gianluca Brambilla, Robert Kiserlovski, Philip Deignan, Ian Boswell, Eros Capecchi, Carlos Betancur, Jan Hirt, Davide Rebellin, Tomasz Marczynski, Bart De Clercq, Mikel Nieve, Sebastien Reichenbach, Mattia Cattaneo, Maxime Bouet, Maciej Paterski, Pawel Poljanski, Sergey Lagutin, Ivan Santaromita, Igor Anton, Petr Vakoc, Marek Rutkiewicz, Darwin Atapuma, Dylan Teuns