André Greipel and Alexander Kristoff have been the strongest in the first two sprint stages of Paris-Nice and now the number of opportunities is limited for their rivals if they want to leave the race with a win. Tomorrow’s stage 3 is the final chance for the pure sprinters and with no wind forecasted, it should all come down to an exciting battle between the fastest riders in the race.

 

The course

In the early years as a WorldTour race, the Tour de Pologne sometimes started with a short team time trial but since it has found a more fixed format, the sprinters have always had their say on the first day – with the very special 2013 edition being the exception. This year it will be no different as the opening stage is a circuit race in the capital of Warsaw where the fast riders are expected to shine.

 

From 2007 to 2011, the capital always hosted the finish of the opening stage but in recent years the race has mainly been held in the southern part of the country. Since then, the race has rarely ventured into the northern part but last year the race finally returned. During their journey to the hilly south, the riders visited Warsaw on stage 2 and so the capital was back after a two-year absence. This year the opening stage will be the only one not to take place in the south and the riders will race a bit earlier than usual to allow for a long travel after the stage.

 

At just 122km, the opening stage is a very short one that is held on a 12.2km circuit in the capital. The riders will start on the eastern shores of the Vistula river which they will cross during their 4.7km neutral ride. As soon as they get to the finish for the first time, the real start will be given and from there the riders will do 10 laps of the circuit.

 

The circuit is almost rectangular with a long straight section along the river and has very few technical challenges. Furthermore, it is almost completely flat. However, the final 2km are a lot more difficult. After taking a right-hand turn with 2km to go, the riders face a very tricky section with numerous sweeping bends before they get to the top of a small climb just before the flamme rouge. After the passage of the red kite, there are two 90-degree turns in quick succession, another sweeping left-hand turn and finally a sharp right-hand turn less than 200m from the finish. There will be KOM points on offer on the small climb during the 7th lap while there will be an intermediate sprint at the finish at the end of the 8th lap.

 

As said, Warsaw last hosted the Tour de Pologne in 2014 when Petr Vakoc took a hugely surprising solo win on a day that was expected to be for the sprinters. In 2011 Marcel Kittel took his first ever WorldTour victory on the opening day before going on to win another three stages of the race. In 2010, Jacopo Guarnieri was the fastest in the opening bunch sprint while Borut Bozic was the first winner in 2009. In 2007 and 2008, the race opened with a team time trial in the capital and they were won by Lampre-Fondital and Team CSC-Saxo Bank respectively, with Roberto Longo and Lars Bak becoming the first race leaders.

 

 

 

The weather

When the Tour de Pologne was held in September, it was often plagued by bad and rainy weather. That has changed since the race was moved to the summer and this year it seems that the race will get off to a great start. Sunday is scheduled to be a beautiful sunny day in Warsaw with a maximum temperature of 28 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part of the circuit and a headwind when they go back towards the finish. In the final 2km, there will mainly be a crosswind while it will be a tailwind on the finishing straight

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne has always been a festival for sprinters and it doesn’t make much sense to go to the race without a fast finisher. Hence, the start list is loaded with fast guys who will be eager to strike on the opening day, get a stage win and wear the yellow jersey. The first part of the race has traditionally given plenty of opportunities for them to dominate and this year the first three stages all have the potential to end in bunch sprints. A strong sprinter has a chance to wear the jersey for until stage 4 and if he has a solid pair of climbing legs, he may even defend it until the tougher climbing starts on Thursday.

 

This also means that it is very hard to imagine that the opening stage won’t come down to a big bunch sprint in the streets of Warsaw. A short flat circuit race is always destined to end in a bunch sprint and it usually requires some rain or a pretty technical circuit to prevent the expected outcome. It doesn’t seem that we will get any of those conditions for the Tour de Pologne opener so the sprinters will be eager to strike. The final part of the circuit is pretty technical but otherwise it is mainly made up of long, straight roads which is perfect for a peloton to organize a chase.

 

Of course an opening stage of a stage race is always a bit tricky, especially if there is no big favourite. As there is no race leader, the teams may all be unwilling to responsibility and that has often made it possible for escapees to create a surprise. In the Volta a Catalunya, we have seen an early break upset the favoritesin both 2012 and 2015 and the history is loaded with this kind of examples. Last year it was Petr Vakoc who earned himself an unexpected lead in this race when he escaped in stage 2.

 

However, those situations usually occur when there is no big favourite for the stage. That’s not the case for the Tour de Pologne opener. For the first time since the Tour Down Under, Marcel Kittel will be at the start of a WorldTour race and even though his condition is obviously questionable, a 122km circuit race should be manageable for the big German. This means that everybody will be looking to Giant-Alpecin to control the break and they are usually willing to accept their responsibility.

 

Most teams know this and apart from the Polish national team, CCC Polsat and maybe some of the French teams who have no major favourites for this race, most squads will be keen to save energy for later. Hence, they won’t do much to join the early break and we expect a relatively small group to escape straight from the gun. In such a short circuit race they rarely get much of an advantage and their main goal will be to stay clear to the KOM sprint on the seventh lap where they can get the chance to take the mountains jersey.

 

We expect Giant-Alpecin to take responsibility relatively early and it will probably be Tom Stamsnijder who spends the majority of the day on the front. Trek are also here mainly for the sprints while Orica-GreenEDGE usually do a lot to support Caleb Ewan. Astana must be ambitious too and Sky also have a string sprint team. Even though Lampre-Merida rarely do much chase work, they have a great sprint team so if the situation gets critical we can expect them to lend a hand to the chase. Hence, there should be plenty of firepower to bring back the early break.

 

The only thing that could really threaten the situation is if Kittel is not feeling well and Giant-Alpecin refuse to do any work. That will probably prompt the other sprint teams not to do any chase either but that is unlikely to happen. Giant-Alpecin also have Luka Mezgec on their roster and so they will be interested in a sprint finish in any case. Hence, it is very unlikely that it won’t come down to a bunch sprint.

 

The intermediate sprint comes relatively late in the race and the early break may be caught just 22.4km from the line. This could open the door for some of the GC riders to try to take a few bonus seconds and it would be no surprise to see a fast and smart guy like Michal Kwiatkowski sprint for the bonifications.

 

With this very technical sprint, lead-outs are a lot more important than actual speed. In fact the finishing straight is so short that there won’t be much sprinting at all. Instead, it will be more about making sure that the sprinter is one of the first riders through the final turn as there won’t be any real time to pass your opponents. In fact, the winner probably has to be one of the first two sprinters through the final turn.

 

This also means that the winner is likely to be the rider with the best lead-out and not the one with the fastest legs. On paper, there is no doubt that Marcel Kittel is the fastest rider in this field and he is perfectly suited to this kind of short criterium-like stage. Furthermore, he has a very good lead-out with the likes of Bert De Backer, Nikias Arndt and Luka Mezgec. However, Kittel’s form is pretty uncertain and he hasn’t won a sprint since the Down Under Classic in the middle of January. He showed clear signs of progress in the Ster ZLM Toer but it is no secret that his non-selection for the Tour made him lose his motivation. Reports are that he has trained well for this race but the team still set a cautious tone, claiming that they are going for wins with Kittel, Arndt or Mezgec.

 

We still expect Kittel to shine in some of the later sprints where it is all about power but this very technical finale is simply not made for him. It will depend much more on his lead-out than on Kittel himself. As said, Giant-Alpecin have a great train for this race but that combination doesn’t have an awful lot of experience in working together.

 

At the same time, they are up against Sacha Modolo who loves this kind of extremely technical sprint. The Italian won two stages in the Giro d’Italia – not because of his speed but because of the excellent train Roberto Ferrari-Maximilano Richeze-Modolo. In this race, he will miss Richeze dearly but he still has Ferrari at his side. The Italian was the one to successfully launch the train in almost every Giro d’Italia sprint and he has developed into one of the best lead-out men in the business. Like Modolo he loves this kind of technical finale.

 

Of course two riders are not enough for this kind of lead-out but they will have Niccolo Bonifazio to fill the vacant spot. Of course he doesn’t have Richeze’s experience but he has the firepower to keep the team on the front if Ferrari can take the lead. Furthermore, they have Manuele Mori to do the earlier work. Of course’s Modolo’s condition is uncertain as he hasn’t raced for a long time but this stage is more about teamwork and technical skills. Hence, Modolo is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Of course Kittel remains a formidable candidate. The German is probably still the fastest sprinter in the world and it must be eager to prove himself after André Greipel won four stages in the Tour. In 2011, he won four stages in this race on a course that was very similar to the one that will be used this year and he will visit many of the places where he has triumphed in the past. One of them is Warsaw and he would love to repeat his win from four years ago.

 

In the later sprints, Kittel will be able to show his real speed but in this stage it will be the lead-out that will make the difference. As said, Kittel has one of the best teams at their disposal. The big challenge will be to stay together in a very sinuous finale as Kittel often loses contact with his teammates, especially if he is not on form. It will be a test for Giant-Alpecin to deliver Kittel on the front but on paper they have the strength to do so.

 

Another team with a strong lead-out is Trek. The Americans have Riccardo Zoidl for the GC but they are mainly here for the sprints and go into the race with an ambitious Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian again had a frustrating Giro d’Italia where he again missed out on that elusive stage win. Later he went on to have another near-miss at the European Games and now he takes aim at the late-season classics.

 

In this race, he is supported by Eugenio Alafaci and Marco Coledan who did a solid job in the Giro. Unfortunately, he is missing his final lead-out man Boy van Poppel and it is doubtful whether his two compatriots have the speed to match the best trains in this race. However, they should be able to position Nizzolo reasonably well and he is usually very good at maneuvering the finales by himself. Most importantly, he likes this kind of technical finish and this makes him one of the favourites.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have lots of confidence in Caleb Ewan who usually gets a full team at his disposal. This is also the case for his second WorldTour race. The Volta a Catalunya didn’t leave many opportunities for the fast guys and so the Tour de Pologne will be his real chance to test himself at the highest level. With 10 victories, he has had a good start to the season and he has often proved that he has the speed to match the best. With Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker, he is supported by two of the best lead-out men in the business and they definitely have the firepower to match the best. Unfortunately, the Orica-GreenEDGE lead-out hasn’t worked perfectly in recent races but if they can return to their former level and deliver Ewan in a good position, there is no reason he can’t take yellow at the WorldTour level.

 

Matteo Pelucchi has proved several times that he is one of the fastest riders in the peloton. He got the season off to an outstanding start in Mallorca where he won two of the season-opening races but since then he has failed to add to his tally. However, he got close to his first grand tour stage victory until injury took him out of the race. Now he is taking aim at a second WorldTour victory in this race which should suit him well. With Roger Kluge and Vicente Reynes, he has a great lead-out train but this stage doesn’t really suit a power sprinter like him. He has the speed to win but he will have better chances later in the race.

 

Last year Andrea Guardini was flying at this time of the year, winning stages in the Tour of Denmark and Eneco Tour. This year he has stepped up his level massively, riding extremely well in the first part of the season. Unfortunately, he crashed hard in Scheldeprijs but he returned to form with stage wins in the World Ports Classic and the Tour de Picardie. He has not raced since the Tour of Belgium but we expect him to come out strong again. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest riders and he usually likes these short, flat races. Unfortunately, the finale is too technical for him as he rarely positions himself very well and he can only count on Borut Bozic and Alexey Lutsenko for the lead-out. It will be hard for Guardini to win this particular stage but if he can enter the final turn in a good position, he definitely has the speed to do so.

 

Kris Boeckmans has had a remarkable 2015 season and has clearly stepped up his level massively. In this race, he is the Lotto Soudal sprinter but he has had a bad preparation as he crashed out of the Tour de Wallonie. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the best lead-out train as he can only really count on Boris Vallee and Jasper de Buyst who doesn’t have much experience. Furthermore, he usually needs a slightly harder race to really shine.

 

Gianni Meersman has had a bad season which has been plagued by injuries. He won three races early in the year but had a big setback when he crashed out of the Giro. He has slowly been building his condition and decided to skip his title defence at the Tour de Wallonie. Meersman will be the Etixx-QuickStep sprinter in this race but he needs a much harder course to really shine. He is no pure sprinter and lacks the speed to match the very best. His best opportunities come later in the race and he is even hampered by a lack of lead-out train. On the other hand, he is usual good at positioning himself which could offer him opportunities.

 

If Kittel is not up for the challenge, Luka Mezgec will be given his chance. The Slovenian has been unable to continue the great progress he showed during the highly successful 2014 season and the Giro was a big disappointment. However, he is still a very fast sprinter and there are definitely more to come from the Slovenian. There are faster riders than him in this race but as said this is all about lead-outs. Giant-Alpecin have a formidable team so if he is given his chance, he could very well come out on top.

 

Last year Tom Van Asbroeck was in the top 10 in nearly every sprint he contested but he has had a harder time since he stepped up to WorldTour level. Crashes and injuries have set him back and he has done some pretty hard races to work on his endurance. In this race he should have a chance in the first three stages but he doesn’t have the best lead-out. Only Dennis van Winden has the speed to position him in the finale but he is usually pretty good at handling things by himself. He is unlikely to win but if he can position himself well, he could end up near the top.

 

If Boeckmans is not recovered from his injuries, Boris Vallee will be the Lotto Soudal sprinter. The Belgian got his chance a few times in last year’s race and he hopes to build on the progress he showed in the Tour de Wallonie where he finished sixth overall. He doesn’t have the speed to win but if Boeckmans and de Buyst can get him into a good position, he should be able to do well.

 

Juan Jose Lobato definitely has the speed to be among the best in this race. However, he positions himself extremely poorly. He has often been the fastest sprinter but has had to come from way too far back to be in contention for the win. This means that this sprint is definitely not for him and we are unlikely to see him near the top. Nonetheless, he deserves a mention as he is one of the fastest riders in this field.

 

FDJ have lots of confidence in Lorrenzo Manzin who is their future top sprinter. The Frenchman has already taken his first pro win and now he hopes to continue his progress at the WorldTour level. With Murilo Fischer and Kevin Reza, he has some fast guys to support him and this is important in this stage. Unfortunately, the first few races at the highest level have been hard for him and it remains to be seen whether he can really challenge the best.

 

Finally, we are curious to see how Pawel Franczak will do at the highest level. The fast Pole has had a very good 2015 season and this has earned him a spot in the Polish national team. He has Kamil Zielinski to position him and so will be well-supported but it is obviously a big step to suddenly ride at the WorldTour level. However, this is his big chance to prove himself so he will be extremely motivated.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sacha Modolo

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Caleb Ewan, Matteo Pelucchi, Andrea Guardini, Kris Boeckmans

Jokers: Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Tom Van Asbroeck, Boris Vallee, Juan Jose Lobato, Lorrenzo Manzin, Pawel Franczak