Marcel Kittel got the best possible comeback after his long racing break and proved that he still has the speed to beat the some of the fastest riders in the peloton. That outs him in the perfect position to make it two in a row in stage whose much less technical finale is perfectly suited to a power sprinter like Kittel.

 

The course

The sprinters that were left disappointed on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the second stage is another one for the fast riders. After a travel overnight, the riders are in the hilly southern part of the country but they will wait a few days before they go into the hills. That will give the sprinters a few more days to chase success before they head into survival mode.

 

With the long travel, it is no surprise that the second stage is another short one. At just 146km, it brings the riders from Czestochowa to Dabrowa Gornicza and is another almost completely flat affair. The first part of the stage consists of an easterly run with a few rolling hills before the riders turn to the south and heads towards the finishing city. Along the way, they will contest an intermediate sprint after 55.4km of racing.

 

The Tour de Pologne stages almost always end on a finishing circuit and it will be no different for this stage. As we get closer to the circuit, the terrain gets flatter but for some reason, the organizers have decided to have their only two KOM sprints in this part. They come at the 78.4km and 89km marks respectively and then there’s a second intermediate sprint at the 91.1km mark before the riders enter the circuit 2.3km later.

 

The first passage of the finish line comes after 96km of racing and the final part of the race is made up of 5 laps of the 10km circuit. It is a very straightforward affair as it consists of a long road with just three roundabouts along the way. Having travelled 5km in one direction, the riders will turn around and head back along the same road in the opposite direction. The U-turn comes with just 1.7km to go and then the riders will go straight through roundabouts just before the flamme rouge and 300m from the finish. The circuit is almost completely flat.

 

The race last visited the finishing city in 2011 when Marcel Kittel enjoyed his WorldTour breakthrough by taking a second consecutive stage win, holding off Heinrich Haussler and Graeme Brown in a bunch sprint. One year earlier it was another bunch sprint in the city and this time it was André Greipel taking the win, with race leader Allan Davis and the late Wouter Weylandt completing the podium.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders could not have asked for better conditions for the opening stage and it won’t get any worse in the southern part of the country. In fact, Monday is forecasted to be a beautiful sunny day and even though a few clouds are expected in the evening, a 30-degree temperature will make the heat a factor to take into consideration.

 

There will be a light wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind and then a crosswind before they turn into a headwind during the approach to the finishing circuit. Here they will mainly have a head- or crosswind as they head back and forth between the turning points. With 1.7km to go, they will turn into a tailwind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

Going into the first stage of the Tour de Pologne, everybody was speaking about Marcel Kittel and how well he had trained during his racing break. After all, it was no secret that he had lost all his motivation when he had learned about his non-selection for the Tour de France and so it was always going to be a question whether he had been able to prepare himself sufficiently for a WorldTour race.

 

However, the German proved all his critics wrong by coming out on top with a powerful sprint in Warsaw. Of course the opening stage was just a relatively easy circuit race but he still looked relatively powerful on the final climb and showed that he had power in his legs when he moved back to lead-out men Luka Mezgec and Nikias Arndt after he had lost contact with his teammates. Finally, he took the late turn perfectly and put his impressive turn of speed on show when he held of Mark Cavendish in the final dash to the line.

 

In 2011, Kittel made his WorldTour breakthrough in this race when he won the two first stages in Warsaw and Dabrowa Gornicza respectively. This year the openers again end in those two cities and it would make his comeback even more symbolic if he could repeat that performance by winning tomorrow’s second stage. At least, he could not have asked for better conditions to continue his run of success as tomorrow’s stage is simply tailor-made for a power sprinter like Kittel.

 

There are barely any climbs on the relatively short course and the organizers have had to use all their ingenuity to find two small climbs for the KOM classification. Furthermore, the finishing circuit is non-technical and perfectly suited to a big chase effort from the sprint teams and to make things even better, it is a real power sprint with a tailwind which makes everything perfect for the fast German.

 

There is no doubt that Giant-Alpecin will do their utmost to bring things together for another bunch sprint and they are very unlikely to miss their target. Today they lost Caleb Fairly and are down to just seven riders but the peloton is loaded with fast riders who are eager to get their revenge. In the opening stage, there was a big alliance between IAM, Astana, Giant-Alpecin and Orica-GreenEDGE and it is hard to imagine that those teams won’t work to get another sprint.

 

However, Giant-Alpecin may still have to carry a bit more responsibility. Today they again delivered a splendid lead-out and Kittel’s rivals know that they have to tire out the German team if they want to beat the fastest rider in the race. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine that they won’t contribute enough to bring it back together for a sprint and we are unlikely to see a repeat of last year’s surprise when Petr Vakoc took a solo win in stage 2.

 

This also means that we should get the race off to a relatively peaceful start and another small break is expected to get clear almost straight from the gun. Again we are likely to see riders from CCC and the Polish national team and they will probably be joined by riders from teams like Ag2r and Cannondale-Garmin who have no big GC favourites or sprinters in this race. With two KOM sprints, the mountains jersey is up for grabs and this will provide the riders with an extra incentive to go on the attack.

 

Today the break never got much of an advantage and tomorrow it is unlikely to be any different. In such a short stage, there is no reason to take any chances so we expect Tom Stamsnijder to hit the front for Giant-Alpecin relatively early. Orica-GreenEDGE, IAM, Astana and maybe Trek are likely to lend a hand and this means that it should be a relatively straightforward affair. With the intermediate sprints coming relatively early, the GC riders won’t really have a chance to go for bonus second so it will be all about staying safe.

 

Another bunch sprint may be on the cards but the sprint will be completely different from the one that decided the opener. Today it was very technical in the finale which meant that lead-outs were much more important than actual speed. Tomorrow it is a long finishing straight with a tailwind which means that it is a day for the real power sprinters and it will only be the late roundabout that will cause some trouble for the fastest guys.

 

Marcel Kittel came out on top in a sprint that actually didn’t really suit and this means that it is very hard not to regard him as the big favourite for stage 2. The German has proved that he is the fastest rider in the world and today he proved that his condition is not too bad. Tomorrow’s stage may be a bit harder but it should not be enough to challenge the German super sprinter who will find the power sprint to his liking.

 

To make things even better Giant-Alpecin proved to have the strongest lead-out in the opening stage. Bert De Backer, Luka Mezgec and Nikias Arndt hit the front just at the right time and made sure that Kittel was in the perfect position for the sprint. On paper, they always had the biggest amount of firepower and today they proved how strong they are. Having the best lead-out and the fastest rider, Giant-Alpecin are in the box seat and there is a big chance that Kittel will make it two in a row.

 

His biggest rival could very well be Andrea Guardini. The Italian doesn’t have the best lead-out in this race but he showed great condition by taking seventh in a sprint that was all about team support. Already last year he was flying at this time of the year and in 2015 he has clearly taken another step up. He seems to be riding at a higher level than he did 12 months ago and this puts him in a perfect position to go for the sprints in this race.

 

Of course he will be hampered by the lack of team support but Borut Bozic and Alexey Lutsenko still have the speed to position him well. More importantly, Guardini has improved his positioning a lot and he is one of the few riders with the speed to challenge Kittel. He loves this kind of power sprint at the end of an easy stage and this makes him a big contender for this sprint.

 

Today Caleb Ewan proved that he is already ready to take on the best in the biggest races when he finished second behind Kittel. It was a very impressive performance as Orica-GreenEDGE seemed to have hit the front way too early but he stayed up there despite all the lead-out trains battling for position. Furthermore, he is supported by a great team with lots of firepower as Mathew Hayman, Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker are all perfectly suited to this kind of finale.

 

Ewan has often proved that he is one of the fastest riders in the world and there is no reason that he can’t win a sprint like this one. However, the Tour de Langkawi proved that Guardini is still a bit faster and he needs to do everything right to win. With this kind of team, he has the potential to start his sprint from the right position and if that happens, there is no reason that he can’t win the stage.

 

Another power sprinter for this kind of stage is Matteo Pelucchi. The Italian was left frustrated in today’s stage after he went down in a small crash but he will be eager to get his revenge. Both in 2014 and 2015, he has proved that he has the speed to beat the very best and he got close to a big win in the Giro earlier this year. This stage is tailor-made for him as it is all about speed. On paper, Vicente Reynes and Roger Kluge should be able to do a good lead-out but today they came up short. If they can time things better tomorrow, they have the sprinter to finish it off.

 

Trek didn’t do any work in today’s stage and so were ready to strike in the finale. However, their lead-out train still came up short against the better teams in the finale and this put Giacomo Nizzolo out of position for the sprint. That was frustrating as the technical sprint suited the Italian really well. Tomorrow it is more about speed and that’s not as favourable for the Italian. On the other hand, he is one of the fastest riders in this field and he is usually great at positioning himself. If just Marco Coledan can deliver him near the front, he may be able to find the right wheel and come away with the win.

 

Kris Boeckmans has had a remarkable 2015 season and today he again confirmed his good condition in a sprint that didn’t suit him too well. This year he has proved that he has the speed to take on the best and he will be keen to try again tomorrow. He crashed out of the Tour de Wallonie but apparently he is not too hampered by his injuries. With Boris Vallee and Jasper de Buyst for the lead-out, he has the firepower to get into a good position for the sprint. There are faster riders than him in this race but he has proved that he is capable of a surprise.

 

Today Lampre-Merida decided to do the sprint for Niccolo Bonifazio who did very well by taking third. However, the youngster is probably not fast enough to win this kind of power sprint so Lampre-Merida’s best chance is to go for Sacha Modolo. However, it may be indicative of a lack of form that the double Giro winner decided to play the lead-out role today. Furthermore, he is not really suited to this kind of power sprint. However, Bonifazio and Roberto Ferrari should be able to do one of the best lead-outs in the race and there is no doubt that Modolo is one of the fastest riders.

 

Today Juan Jose Lobato decided to work for his team instead of contesting a sprint that didn’t really suit him. Tomorrow the longer finishing straight means that it is less about positioning and more about speed. This should be better for Lobato who has often proved that he has an amazing speed but very often he has paid dearly for poor positioning. Tomorrow that is likely to happen again but if he can get a clear run to the line he has the speed to be up there with the best.

 

Tom Van Asbroeck is one of the most consistent sprinters and he rarely misses the top 10. However, today he was out of position and instead Dennis van Winden took his chance in the sprint. Tomorrow should be a day for Van Asbroeck who is clearly the fastest rider of the pair and he has finally found some form after an injury-marred start to the season. He probably lacks a bit of speed to win this kind of power sprint but he should be able to do well.

 

Today Lorrenzo Manzin proved that he is already able to challenge the best at the highest level. FDJ signed him as a replacement for Nacer Bouhanni and by winning one race he has already showed his potential. Furthermore, Murilo Fischer, Laurent Pichon and Matthieu Ladagnous did a great job in the lead-out and if they can repeat that kind of performance, Manzin may be able to deliver a surprise.

 

If Modolo is still not up for the challenge, Niccolo Bonifazio or Roberto Ferrari will be given the chance. None of them are really suited to this kind of power sprint but if one has to choose, it is probably best for Ferrari. On the other hand, Lampre-Merida want to retain Bonifazio’s services and this may prompt them to ride for the youngster. It will be hard for them to win the stage but with one of the best lead-outs at their side, they should be up there.

 

Today Gianni Meersman didn’t have much luck in the sprint and it won’t be any easier in tomorrow’s power sprint which suits him less. Furthermore, Etixx-QuickStep’s main goal is to work for Michal Kwiatkowski and this means that he is unlikely to get much team support. However, Meersman has often been able to deliver a surprise and so he deserves to be mentioned.

 

Finally, we will again point to Pawel Franczak. Today was always going to be difficult for the Pole as it was more about team support than actual speed. That made it hard as he doesn’t have a big lead-out train. Tomorrow it should be slightly easier for the smaller teams and this should give him a chance to prove himself at the highest level as he continues to search for a pro contract.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Andrea Guardini, Caleb Ewan

Outsiders: Matteo Pelucchi, Giacomo Nizzolo, Kris Boeckmans, Sacha Modolo

Jokers: Juan Jose Lobato, Tom Van Asbroeck, Lorrenzo Manzin, Roberto Ferrari, Niccolo Bonifazio, Gianni Meersman, Pawel Franczak