Matteo Pelucchi confirmed his status as one of the fastest riders in the world when he powered to a second victory on the WorldTour at the end of the second stage. However, Marcel Kittel was clearly the fastest and was left frustrated when he hit the Italian’s handlebar and so the German will be eager to strike back in tomorrow’s third stage whose downhill sprint is tailor-made for the powerful German.

 

The course

With a bit of climbing in stage 4, there is may only be one opportunity left for the sprinters in this year’s Tour de Pologne. It comes on the third day of the race which should offer the spectators a third consecutive bunch sprint before the race heads into hillier terrain.

 

One of the classic stages in the Tour de Pologne is the one that finishes in Katowice which has been visited every year since 2010. This year the city will welcome the event on the third day and it will use largely the same circuit that has been used every time. A few modifications have been made to increase the length from 12.3km to 14.7km but it won’t change much.

 

Stage 3 is 166km long and brings the riders from Zawiercie to Katowice. The first part is made up of a long, flat westerly run before the riders turn to the south to approach the finishing city. During this part, they will contest the first special sprint of the race at the 55.3km mark while there will be intermediate sprints at the 72.1km, 91.8km and 102.4km marks respectively. The terrain will be very easy with only a few rolling hills.

 

The riders will enter the finishing circuit after 106.2km of racing and after crossing the finish line just 1km later, they will end the stage by doing four laps of the 14.7km circuit that is almost completely flat. However, there are two small climbs that will be used to hand out KOM points. The hardest comes in the first half of the circuit and will offer points on the final lap while the second ascent comes just 1.2km from the finish and will offer points on the second lap.

 

The circuit is pretty technical and has several corners interspersed with long, straight roads. However, the finale is not too complicated. The riders will turn left just before the 2km mark and then go straight through a roundabout before they head up one of the small climbs. The summit comes just before the flamme rouge which is located in a roundabout where the riders will turn around to get onto the finishing straight which is slightly descending.

 

Last year it was Jonas Van Genechten who took the biggest win of his career by holding off Jacopo Guarnieri and Luka Mezgec. One year earlier Taylor Phinney did what most thought to be impossible by making a brave move and narrowly holding off the sprinters before Steele Von Hoff beat Yauheni Hutarovich in the sprint for second. In 2012, Aidis Kruopis prevailed in a bunch sprint while Marcel Kittel was the fastest in 2011. In 2010, Hutarovich took a big WorldTour win when he beat Lucas Haedo and Allan Davis in the Polish city.

 

 

 

The weather

It’s definitely summer in Poland and the heat has been a factor in the first two stages of the Tour de Pologne. It seems that nothing will change for tomorrow’s third stage which will again be held under a sunny sky. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 31 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind in the first part of the stage. After the special sprint, they will turn into a cross-headwind which will be the dominating wind direction until the riders hit the finishing circuit. Here there will be a cross-headwind in the first part and then a cross-tailwind in the second part. After the final U-turn, there will be a cross-headwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

All was set for a battle royale between some of the best sprinters in the world but a tough of wheels between Sacha Modolo and Caleb Ewan created a big crash that significantly changed the outcome of the sprint on stage 2. After going down in a crash on stage 1, Matteo Pelucchi was the one to benefit as he was one of the few riders that wasn’t hampered by the incident and he came away with the second WorldTour win of his career.

 

However, there is no reason to take anything away from Pelucchi. The Italian has often proved that he is one of the fastest riders in the pure bunch sprints that come at the end of short, easy stages. Hence, it was no surprise to see him come out of top and he was clearly much faster than renowned sprinters like Sacha Modolo and Giacomo Nizzolo who could do nothing against their compatriot. Furthermore, Marcel Kittel only made up ground relatively slowly after had had been forced to slow down when he hit Pelucchi’s handlebars. That left the German frustrated as he again proved that he is the fastest rider in the Tour de Pologne.

 

While it seems that none of the sprinters have sustained any major injuries, there will definitely be some sore bodies when the peloton rolls out for stage 3 tomorrow. This makes it hard for the teams to make any big plans about how to approach the stage and most of them will have to see how their sprinters feel before they can decide their tactic for the stage.

 

This could open the door for some attackers to see a chance to deny the sprinters but they are unlikely to have any success in their mission. This is the final real opportunity for the sprinters in this year’s race and they definitely don’t want to miss out. Most importantly, Marcel Kittel was denied the opportunity to make the triple like he did four years ago and now he definitely wants to add that elusive second win to make up for today’s disappointment.

 

This means that Giant-Alpecin will do their utmost to set up a bunch sprint and they should get plenty of help. IAM have already proved that they have plenty of confidence in Pelucchi and after today’s performance they will be even more eager to bring their fast Italian forward. Hence, they will do much of the chase work alongside the German team and that should be enough to make sure that we will get a bunch sprint. Trek are also mainly here for the sprints and they did some work in the finale of today’s stage. They could lend a hand again and the same goes for Lampre-Merida who will probably come to the fore if the situation gets dangerous. On the other hand, Astana and Orica-GreenEDGE will probably not do anything as their sprinters hit the deck in today’s stage and they first have to see how they are feeling.

 

This means that we should have another pretty straightforward stage. There is a small chance that it will take a bit longer for the break to be formed but most likely it will escape straight from the gun. Again CCC and the Polish national team are likely to be part of the action and we wouldn’t be surprised to see teams like Ag2r, FDJ, Cannondale-Garmin, Lotto Soudal and LottoNL-Jumbo on the attack too.

 

Today Giant-Alpecin never allowed the gap to grow to more than 2 minutes and they are likely to have a similar approach to tomorrow’s stage. Tom Stamsnijder will probably hit the front almost right from the start and keep the group firmly under control. Clement Chevrier is likely to do the early work for IAM and we could also see Stefan Denifl and Jonathan Fumeaux take turns on the front. Jesse Sergent is likely to be the man for the early work if Trek come to the fore.

 

The escapees are unlikely to make it to the finish so they will be eager to get as many points as possible in the intermediate sprints. With three of those in the early part of the stage, the sprints jersey is up for grabs and this would be a welcome reward for the attackers. There will be two KOM sprints on the finishing circuit but as Adrian Kurek has a firm grip on the mountains jersey, they are unlikely to be too hotly contested.

 

Today the break was caught relatively early and we had no counter-attacks. Tomorrow the finishing circuit is a bit more undulating and this means that we may have a bit more aggression in the finale. Many will remember how Taylor Phinney denied the sprinters here in 2013 and we could see some late moves. However, with good weather conditions and several sprinters at the start, we should get another bunch sprint in Katowice.

 

The climbs on the circuit are not difficult and will do nothing to challenge the sprinters who will be ready to battle in a sprint that suits the fastest riders in the world. The downhill sprint on a long, straight road is usually one of the fastest in the WorldTour and will be the perfect scene for the riders with the highest speed. The cross-headwind will reduce the speed slightly but there is no doubt that this is a stage for the real power sprinters.

 

Hence, it is hard not to point to Marcel Kittel as the man to beat. The German was left frustrated in today’s stage but in his post-race interview he was already looking forward to tomorrow. He won this stage four years ago and he has fond memories of the finishing straight which he described as one he really likes.

 

He definitely has a good reason to do so. Kittel has proved that he is virtually unbeatable in power sprints and this makes tomorrow’s stage tailor-made for him. Furthermore, he can still count on one of the best lead-outs in the world and even though they didn’t time it perfectly in today’s stage, they still managed to drop Kittel off in a good position. If it hadn’t been for the crash, he is very likely to have taken the win.

 

Tomorrow they may even get an easier job. With Caleb Ewan’s condition a bit uncertain, Orica-GreenEDGE who were the strongest team in today’s stage, may play a less prominent role in the finale. If that’s the case, Giant-Alpecin will be the strongest team and Bert De Backer, Luka Mezgec and Nikias Arndt could again drop Kittel off in the front like they did in stage one. If that’s the case, no one is going to be even close to the German. With a good lead-out, the fastest sprinters must be the favourite and so Kittel is our stage winner pick.

 

As said, Matteo Pelucchi had a bit of luck in today’s stage but he still proved that he is not far behind Kittel in this kind of power sprint that comes at the end of an easy stage. Tomorrow’s stage is again going to be relatively calm so Pelucchi should be fresh at the finish.

 

Pelucchi has a solid lead-out as he can rely on Roger Kluge and Vicente Reynes. Both seemed to get through today’s chaos relatively unscathed and so should be ready to support their teammate. They don’t have the firepower to match Giant-Alpecin but like today they should be good enough to drop Pelucchi off near the front. If he can get the jump on Kittel, Pelucchi is fast enough to make it two in a row.

 

The other sprinter who has the top speed to challenge Kittel in this kind of sprint is Andrea Guardini. Unfortunately, the Italian hit the deck in today’s stage but he was quickly back on his feet. Of course he will be sore tomorrow and he may not be at 100% for the sprint. However, if he is unscathed, he is one of the select few with the skills to win this kind of downhill sprint.

 

Today Astana hit the front way too early and so Guardini was not in the best position for the sprint. In the past, positioning was his big weakness but he has improved a lot and is now able to stay near the front. If Borut Bozic and Alexey Lutsenko can time things a bit better and he is not hampered by his injuries, he will love this kind of power sprint.

 

The downhill sprint is not tailor-made for Giacomo Nizzolo who usually prefers a harder stage and more technical challenges. However, the Italian is still one of the fastest sprinters in this field which he proved in today’s sprint. He did pretty well to take third and even though Pelucchi and Kittel was clearly faster he proved that he was faster than Modolo who got the better of him on two occasions in the Giro. Furthermore, the Trek train did pretty well and as he is very good at positioning himself, Nizzolo should be among the best.

 

Today Lampre-Merida did the sprint for Sacha Modolo but the Italian is not suited to this kind of easy stage. It seemed that lead-out man Niccolo Bonifazio was much stronger and Modolo barely managed to pass his teammate before the finish. That makes it likely that Bonifazio will be back in the role as main sprinter for tomorrow’s stage. The youngster seems to be in great condition and he was really powerful in today’s stage. With Roberto Ferrari and Modolo at his side, he has one of the best trains at his disposal and if they can time things in the way they did today, Bonifazio could take his first WorldTour win.

 

If the team decides to give him another chance, Sacha Modolo will still be an outsider. As said, he usually needs a harder stage to win and he will need everything to really go his way if he wants to win the stage. However, he has one main advantage: his lead-out train. Today Ferrari and Bonifazio were outstanding and if they can repeat that performance, it won’t be impossible for Modolo to win the stage.

 

Kris Boeckmans has continued his great 2015 season in this race and has been up there with the best in both sprints. The lead-out train with Boris Vallee and Jasper de Buyst is working well and today he was clearly faster than a great sprinter like Modolo. This will make him confident for tomorrow’s stage where he will again be a strong outsider for the win. There are definitely better sprinters than him and some of them have better lead-outs. However, if he can position himself well, a WorldTour win could be around the corner for the fast Belgian.

 

Caleb Ewan was the first rider to hit the deck in today’s stage and he hit the ground hard. Nonetheless, Orica-GreenEDGE have confirmed that he will be at the start of tomorrow’s stage but it remains to be seen how he is feeling. It is hard to imagine that he will be up for the challenge 24 hours after that kind of crash. Nonetheless, he is still a joker. If he is not hampered by his injuries, he is one of the fastest riders in the bunch and his team have proved that they have one of the two beat lead-outs in the race. If they can drop him off on the front, Ewan has the speed to change his fortunes. If he is not ready, Mitchell Docker or Brett Lancaster will be given the chance. They are probably not fast enough to win the stage but with a good lead-out, they should be able to do well.

 

Juan Jose Lobato hit the deck in today’s stage and it remains to be seen how he will be feeling tomorrow. The Spaniard is not a pure sprinter and he is very bad at positioning himself. However, this finale is not very technical and this means that there is a bigger chance that he will find an opening. In the past, he has often showed that he has an impressive turn of speed but he has been forced to come from too far back. The late climb may allow him to move a bit up before the sprint and if he can just get into a reasonable position, he will do well.

 

We have already pointed to Lorrenzo Manzin on a number of occasions and we will do so again. FDJ have been doing some very good lead-outs for their youngster and he has proved that he has the speed to be up there with the best. He is definitely not fast enough to win the stage and FDJ are not strong enough to make up for his lack of speed but he should be able to finish on the podium if everything comes together.

 

Tom Van Asbroeck seemed to be one of the riders that went down hardest in today’s stage and so LottoNL-Jumbo may be forced to change their plans. However, they have a solid back-up card in Dennis van Winden. The Dutchman rarely gets a chance to sprint for himself but he seems to be in excellent condition at the moment. He was a great fourth in the first stage despite having launched an attack in the finale. Unfortunately, he won’t have much team support but he could create a surprise in tomorrow’s stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Matteo Pelucchi, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Niccolo Bonifazio, Sacha Modolo, Kris Boeckmans

Jokers: Caleb Ewan, Mitchell Docker, Brett Lancaster, Juan Jose Lobato, Lorrenzo Manzin, Dennis van Winden, Gianni Meersman, Pawel Franczak