After three stages in flat terrain, it is finally time to test the climbing legs in stage 4 which includes the first two category 1 climbs. However, a flat finale means that it is probably too early for the GC riders to make their marks and instead a reduced bunch sprint is likely to decide the stage.

 

The course

After three days in flat terrain, it is time for some climbing in what will be a warm-up for the two hardest stages on Thursday and Friday. With the climbs coming pretty far from the finish and a flat finish, it won’t be a day for the GC riders to make a difference but stage 4 will definitely create the first selection in the Polish WorldTour race.

 

What will make the race even tougher is the distance. The Tour de Pologne has been known for its many very long sprint stages. This year they have been shortened significantly but there’s still a pretty solid ride in store on stage 4 as it covers a massive 220km. It brings the riders from Jaworzno to Nowy Sacz where the riders will end the race with their usual circuit finish.

 

In the first part of the stage, the riders will travel in a southerly direction along mainly flat roads until they get to the city of Wadowice after 40.8km of racing. Here they will contest the only intermediate sprint and turn to the east to approach the finishing city. The roads are still flat but gradually the terrain gets more difficult as they venture into the hills.

 

The feed zone is located at the 96km mark and then it is time for the climbing to start. The next 32km are almost all uphill and leads to the top of the first category 2 climb of the race. Then it’s a fast descent before the riders reach the bottom of the first category 1 climb whose summit is located 61.4km from the finish.

 

The riders will now descend towards the finishing city but instead of going to the finish line, they will turn around to head up the same category 1 climb from a different direction. The summit will be crested with 37.3km to go and then it’s time to again descend to the finishing city. There will be a special sprint with 28.6km to go and the riders will get onto the finishing circuit 100m later.

 

Five kilometres later, it is time for the first passage of the finish line which signals the start of the first of 3 laps of the 7.6km finishing circuit. It is completely flat and very straightforward, with only a few technical challenges. The riders will make a U-turn with 1.7km to go before they go straight through a roundabout with 700m to go. Then it’s a straight road to the finish.

 

Nowy Sacz has not hosted a stage finish since the race became part of the ProTour in 2005.

 

 

 

The weather

The Polish summer gave the riders their first taste of rain in the finale of today’s stage and more may be in store in tomorrow’s stage. There will be bright sunshine in the morning but by the time the stage starts, a few clouds are forecasted to appear. In the afternoon, there is a 25% risk of rain. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 29 degrees.

 

There will be a very light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind in the first part and then a crosswind for most of the stage. There will be a headwind on the first climb, a crosswind on the second climb and a cross-tailwind on the final climb. Then it’s a crosswind until the riders get to the finishing circuit where they will first have a cross-tailwind, then a crosswind and then a cross-headwind. There will be a cross-tailwind for the final 1700m.

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne has always been a sprint festival but for the likes of Marcel Kittel, Andrea Guardini and Matteo Pelucchi, their time in the spotlight is over. Tomorrow the riders finally head into the hills and it is time for the GC riders to test their condition. Until now, it has been a waiting game whose main purpose has been to stay safe and be aware of splits in the finale. Some of them, most notably Michal Kwiatkowski and Ion Izagirre, were attentive to gain 8 seconds on their key rivals in stage one but those two riders were also among the unfortunate riders to hit the deck in yesterday’s stage.

 

The GC battle will heat up in the final three days but it is probably still too early for the main contenders to make their mark in tomorrow’s stage. The final 30km are completely flat and it is almost completely impossible to keep the peloton at bay over such a long distance. For the key contenders, it is much wiser to keep the powder dry for stages 5 and 6 where differences can be made. However, tomorrow’s stage  is a perfect chance to test the legs and see how the form is after what has been a long break from racing for many riders.

 

While the GC riders will have to wait a little more before they get the chance to strike, tomorrow’s stage must be one of the biggest goals for several fast finishers. They have had a hard time against the likes of Kittel and Pelucchi in the flat finishes but tomorrow the climbs offer them a chance to get rid of the fastest riders. However, most of them are uncertain about what to expect as the roadbook doesn’t tell anything about the difficulty of the climbs and as it is a new finish, none of the riders have had a chance to test them before. The local riders probably know what to expect but most of the peloton find themselves in a bit of an unknown.

 

That also means that it is hard for them to make a game plan for the stage and many will have to change tactics during the stage. However, some of the fast finishers are still confident that they will be able to overcome the challenges. One of them is Giacomo Nizzolo whose sports director has made it clear that they plan to go for the sprint again tomorrow.

 

Nonetheless, this is the kind of stage that has no obvious favourite and this means that several riders will be keen to ride aggressively. Until now, the break has gone clear straight from the gun but tomorrow we should have a bigger battle. Giant-Alpecin are unlikely to so much to defend the jersey and so the door is open for riders to take their chance.

 

This means that we will be in for a fast start and it will probably take a bit longer for the break to be formed. Until now, the same teams and riders have been active in the breaks but tomorrow a lot more teams will probably give it a try. Furthermore, there’s a mountains jersey up for grabs which will provide them with an extra incentive.

 

When the break has been established, it will be interesting to see which teams take control. We don’t expect Giant-Alpecin to do too much and if they don’t get any help, they will probably have to let the breakaway stay away. Furthermore, it is a very long stage and the sprint teams are probably unwilling to chase for most of the day if their sprinters are unable to overcome the challenges.

 

However, the break is still likely to get caught. The time gaps are almost non-existent and the Tour de Pologne is always decided by tiny margins. If a break makes it to the finish, the battle for the GC could be over and so the GC teams will make sure that the situation doesn’t get out of control. Etixx-QuickStep and Movistar both have some of the overall favourites and potential winners of the stage and so they will probably do some work. With Giacomo Nizzolo signaling his intentions to go for the win, Trek may also lend a hand.

 

The main challenges are the three late climbs and it will be interesting to see if anyone wants to make the race hard to get rid of the fast finishers. Etixx-QuickStep and Movistar could have this kind of plan. Furthermore, Kwiatkowski and Diego Ulissi are relatively fast in a sprint and if they can make the race selective, they could get the chance to pick up bonus seconds in the finale. This could be an incentive for their teams to go full gas on the climbs.

 

In any case, we should see some attacks on the climbs and it is definitely not impossible that a new group will make it up to the remnants of the early break. The terrain is definitely hard to control and the attacks will just make things tougher for the sprinters. Some of the GC riders may even give it a try but we expect most of them to save energy for Thursday.

 

After the climb, it is time to take stock of the situation and find out which sprinters have made it over the climbs. Then it will be important to prevent the fast riders from getting back and reel in the attackers that may have gone clear on the climbs. Hence, the scene is set for a fast finale.

 

As said, it will be hard to stay away in the final part and as the GC riders won’t let the situation get out of control, we will probably get a sprint finish. The main question is which riders will be there in the end.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo has made it clear that he hopes to survive the climbs and we feel confident that he will be able to do so. The Italian seems to be in excellent condition at the moment. He has set an optimistic tone, claiming to be feeling good, and seemed to be at ease in today’s finale which proved to be a bit hard for many sprinters. Among the fast finishers, he is usually one of the better climbers and even though some of them are stronger than him, he should be able to survive more than most.

 

Furthermore, he is one of the fastest riders in this field and he has been sprinting pretty well. He has come up short twice but today he was really close. The main issue for him will be the amount of team support as Trek don’t have the best team of climbers in this race. However, Nizzolo is always very good at positioning himself and it won’t be a major issue. There is a big chance that Nizzolo will be the fastest rider in the reduced field and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Gianni Meersman is another rider who is excellently suited to this kind of stage. The Belgian has had a hard time in the first two stages but today he showed that his form is not too bad when he finished sixth in a stage that didn’t suit him at all. He is no pure sprinter and needs harder terrain to shine but he was still up there in one of the fastest sprints of the year.

 

Meersman has had a complicated build-up to the race as he crashed out of the Giro and was far from his best in June. Now he has had time to build his condition and he seems to be riding well. His specialty is hard stages with a flat finale and he can count on a very strong team to lead him out. Michal Kwiatkowski has the speed to set his teammate up and if he can deliver Meersman on the front, he will be hard to come around.

 

Marcel Kittel suffered on today’s small climb which proves that he is still far from his best condition. Hence, there is no chance that he will survive tomorrow’s challenges and so Giant-Alpecin will have to change their plans. This means that they are likely to support Luka Mezgec who likes this kind of hard stage with a flat finale. The Slovenian has had a complicated year as he has been unable to build on his progress from 2014 but he seems to be riding well at the moment. Usually, he is a better climber than Nizzolo and there is a big chance that his teammate Nikias Arndt will also survive the challenges. This will provide him with a formidable lead-out man and gives him the perfect chance to come out on top.

 

Juan Jose Lobato is likely to have made this stage his big goal. However, the Spaniard crashed in yesterday’s stage and was unable to do today’s sprint. This indicates that he is not at 100% and this could prevent him from contesting tomorrow’s stage too. However, if he is up for the challenge, he should be a strong contender. He showed good condition by taking second in the Circuito de Getxo and he is a solid climber. His specialty is uphill sprints and he usually suffers a bit on longer climbs so there is no guarantee that he will be able to survive. Furthermore, he is very poor at positioning himself so he probably needs a pretty small field to be able to show the very fast speed that has often seen him come fast from behind.

 

Lampre-Merida have two cards to play as Niccolo Bonifazio and Sacha Modolo are both good climbers. At the moment, Modolo doesn’t seem to be at 100% so the climbing could be a bit too tough for him. With a lack of form, it is no surprise that he has been riding in support of Bonifazio in stages 1 and 3 and tomorrow the youngster is again likely to be their best cards. His performance in stage 2 was very impressive as he rode in the wind for a long time and still managed to finish the stage in 6th. Furthermore, he looked strong on the climbs in the finales of stages 1 and 3. As he is usually a decent climber, he should be able to overcome the challenges and with Manuele Mori, Diego Ulissi and maybe Modolo at his side, he could have the best lead-out.

 

Mezgec is not the only Giant-Alpecin card. Nikias Arndt seems to be riding very well at the moment which is no big surprise. Last year he was climbing surprisingly well in this race and when he is on form, he is able to overcome some pretty hard challenges. Usually, Mezgec is the faster of the pair but Arndt seems to be the in-form rider at the moment. With Mezgec as a potential lead-out man, he has a chance to take another WorldTour victory after his stage win in last year’s Dauphiné.

 

CCC Polsat have not had much success in the sprints yet but tomorrow they will be ready to strike. Grega Bole is an excellent climber who even finished in the top 20 on the Mortirolo stage in the Giro d’Italia. His form is a bit uncertain and things have not been made any easier by the fact that he crashed in yesterday’s stage. Furthermore, there are several riders that are faster than him but if the race becomes really selective, he has a chance.

 

We are curious to see how Caleb Ewan will handle tomorrow’s stage. At the U23 level, the tiny Australian was a solid climber but he has had a harder time at the pro level. The climbing in the Volta a Catalunya was too hard for him and this means that tomorrow’s challenges are also likely to be too tough. Things haven’t been made any easier by his crash yesterday. However, the Australian is clearly on form and if he is there at the finish, he is likely to be the fastest.

 

BMC don’t have a real sprinter in this race but they have Silvan Dillier as a contender for the reduced sprints. The young Swiss is an incredible talent who has obviously become a lot stronger by getting through the Giro. In the Tour de Suisse, he was climbing really well and he should easily be able to make it over tomorrow’s climbs. Unfortunately, he crashed yesterday so his recovery needs to be assessed. He needs a selective race to win the stage but if the sprinters are dropped, he will be one of the fastest.

 

If the race becomes very selective, Michal Kwiatkowski will be ready to strike. The Pole is riding on home soil and is keen to go for the overall win. His form is uncertain after he rode poorly at the Tour but of course tomorrow’s climbs won’t be too hard for him. If the real sprinters are all left behind, he will definitely go for the bonus seconds and among the GC riders he is clearly the fastest.

 

Moreno Moser beat Kwiatkowski in this race three years ago and he is now back, hoping to repeat that feat. He is obviously not the rider he once was but he is getting better. Recently, he won a reduced bunch sprint in the Tour of Austria and there is no doubt that this has provided him with lots of confidence for tomorrow’s stage which is pretty similar. He is likely to have Davide Villella at his side for the lead-out and this could put him in a position to win the stage.

 

Another GC rider that will be keen to go for bonus seconds is Sergey Chernetskii. The Russian is surprisingly fast in a sprint as he proved when he nearly won the final stage of the Volta a Catalunya and Katusha have a strong team of climbers to support him. Sergey Lagutin will be on hand as the final lead-out man but obviously he needs a selective race to come out on top. He won a stage in Catalonia and will be able to repeat that performance in Poland.

 

The climbing is likely to be a bit too tough for Kris Boeckmans. The Belgian is very strong in classics terrain but he usually suffers on longer climbs. However, he has had a remarkable 2015 season and it isn’t impossible that he will be able to survive the challenges. If that’s the case, he will be one of the fastest.

 

There is virtually no change that Matteo Pelucchi will survive the climbs but that doesn’t mean that IAM are without any chances. Vicente Reynes is a very good climber and last year he impressed us at the Vuelta. If he has the same kind of form, tomorrow’s climbs will be manageable for him and he has a solid turn of speed. To win the stage, he will need a bit of luck but he could create a surprise.

 

Andrea Guardini won’t make it over the climbs and instead Astana will probably look to Alexey Lutsenko or Borut Bozic in the finish. There is no doubt that the former will survive while it is more questionable how the latter will handle the challenges. The Slovenian is the fastest of the pair but the Kazakh is a possible GC contender and would love to sprint for some bonus seconds.

 

Maciej Paterski is likely to ride in support of Grega Bole but if the Slovenian is not recovered from his crash, the Pole will be given his chance. He claims not to be as strong as he was in the early part of the season but he should be able to overcome the climbs. It will be hard for him to win the stage but he should be up there if he gets his chance.

 

Sky are here for the GC but Salvatore Puccio has got the chance to test himself in the sprints. He is definitely not a pure sprinter but if the race becomes selective, he could be one of the fastest riders in the group. He is very unlikely to win the stage but could sprint onto the podium.

 

For other fast finishers that could make it over the climbs, look to Paolo Tiralongo, Diego Ulissi, Francisco Ventoso, Simon Clakre, Sergey Lagutin, Davide Villella, Rinaldo Nocentini, Matthieu Ladagnous, Laurent Pichon and Marcin Bialoblocki.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec

Outsiders: Juan Jose Lobato, Niccolo Bonifazio, Nikias Arndt, Sacha Modolo

Jokers: Grega Bole, Caleb Ewan, Silvan Dillier, Michal Kwiatkowski, Moreno Moser, Sergei Chernetskii, Kris Boeckmans, Vicente Reynes, Alexey Lutsenko, Borut Bozic, Maciej Paterski, Salvatore Puccio