Today’s stage produced a surprise winner and a surprise overall leader while it allowed the GC riders to get back into the climbing rhythm. Now it is time for the overall contenders to show their real cards in the first big climbing stage of the race where the climbers have to gain the first time on the time triallists before we get to the final stage in Krakow.

 

The course

After four days with flat finales, it is finally time for the first serious climbing day in this year’s Tour de Pologne when the riders tackle the stage to Zakopane which has often welcomed the race. In the past, it has always had the same layout and been a perfect stage for strong sprinters and puncheurs who have excelled in the moderately hilly terrain and the uphill sprint as the climbs were never very steep. However, the stage will be markedly different in 2015 as the climbing has been made a lot tougher and this year it should be a day for the GC riders to make their mark.

 

At 223km, it is another very long stage that brings the riders from the previous finishing city of Nowy Sacz to Zakopane. The first part of the stage is made up of a predominantly flat southwesterly journey but the road gradually starts to rise as the riders approach the finishing circuit which they will enter after 81.6km of racing.

 

The circuit is 54.3km long and includes three climbs. Before getting to the finish line, the riders will do the final 32.6km and that includes two of the climbs. First it is the category 1 Zab ascent which is 4km long with kilometres averaging 4.0%, 7.5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint. Later is it time for the category 1 Gubalowka which is 4.2km long and has kilometres that average 9.2%, 6.2%, 7.8% and 4.8% respectively. The steepest section of 18.4% comes at the bottom. From the top, there are still 12.9km to the finish.

 

After the first passage of the line, the riders will do two full laps of the circuit. The first part is almost all uphill and culminates at the top of the category 1 Glodowka climb which is 8km long and mostly averages around 4-5%. There’s a flat section near the top before it ramps up for the final kilometre where it reaches it maximum gradient of 8.8%. The summit comes with 35.5km to go and then the riders will descend to the bottom of the Zab climb. The final two ascents will be tackled with 20.0km and 12.9km to go respectively. The final part is mainly descending but the final 3km are very slightly uphill at an average gradient of 2-3%. There are two turns in quick succession just before the flamme rouge but the final kilometre is straight. There will be intermediate sprints on the final lap with 24.5km and 10.2km to go respectively.

 

Zakopane hosted stage finishes in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013 but in those editions it was the well-known, easier final circuit that suited the strong sprinters. That is clearly reflected in the list of winners. In 2013, Thor Hushovd powered to an uphill sprint win by beating Matthieu Ladagnous and Daniele Ratto while Ben Swift was faster than Elia Viviani in 2012. In 2011, it was Peter Sagan who laid the foundations for his overall win by taking the stage victory and in 2009 Edvald Boasson Hagen was the fastest from a 19-rider group. In 2008, Jens Voigt rode away to a solo win that later would secure him the overall win.

 

 

 

The weather

For the second day in a row, a beautiful summer day ended with a shower that made the finale tricky and it could be more of the same tomorrow. Thursday is forecasted to be beautiful and sunny with a maximum temperature of a very pleasant 26 degrees but there is a 25% risk of a show for the entire afternoon.

 

There will be a light wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind in the first part that brings them to the finishing circuit. Here they will have a headwind on the first climb, a tailwind on the second climb and a cross-tailwind on the final climb. Importantly, there will be a cross-headwind in most of the final 10km, including the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

As we said yesterday, today’s stage was always going to be one that could potentially be won by a breakaway. With the sprint teams all being uncertain about their ability to handle the final climbs, they were unwilling to commit themselves to the chase until they had overcome the final challenge. That left it to the GC teams Sky, Lampre-Merida and Etixx-QuickStep to make sure that the situation never got out of control. However, as there were no strong climbers in the front group, they had no reason to reel the break in and so they were only wanted to make sure that the gap wasn’t too big. When the sprint teams finally went all in after the final climb, it was too late.

 

That gave Maciej Bodnar the opportunity to make a remarkable comeback after his broken collarbone by taking a very popular home win. At the same time, it produced a hugely surprising overall leader. 27-year-old Kamil Zielinski has proved that he is a very capable bike rider and has had a remarkable 2015 season. Recently he finished second in the Podlasie Tour but few would have expected him to find him in the leader’s jersey in his second Tour de Pologne.

 

However, there is no real chance that he will be in yellow at the end of tomorrow’s stage. His advantage is relatively small and even though he is no poor climber, it will be hard for him to keep up with the best in tomorrow’s stage which is very hard. There is no doubt that he will do his utmost and that the Polish national team will do what they can to hold onto and honour the jersey but the big teams have too much interest in making tomorrow’s stage hard that it will be mission impossible.

 

Today was an important day for overall contenders Michal Kwiatkowski and Ion Izagirre. Vasil Kiryienka was looming as a very dangerous overall contender but stage 4 proved that the Belarusian is nowhere near his best and he is now out of GC contention. This means that those two riders are the best time triallists among the favourites still in contention and they can allow themselves to take a defensive approach to the two climbing stages.

 

That’s definitely not the case for their rivals. Most of the teams have a GC contender in their ranks but only a few of them will be able to defend themselves in the final time trial. This means that they have to make the most of the next two stages where they need to get rid of the better time triallists. This means that several teams have a keen interest in making this race as hard as possible and make the most of the next two stages. Hence, there is no chance that tomorrow’s stage will be an easy one.

 

Most notably it was interesting to see that Sky took full responsibility in today’s stage. This proves that they have full confidence in Sergio Henao who needs to gain time on the likes of Kwiatkowski, Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Diego Ulissi and Jurgen Van den Broeck. They have a formidable team of climbers in this race and they have the potential to make this race really hard.

 

A hilly stage is always an opportunity to go on the attack and many will have been inspired by today’s outcome. Furthermore, tomorrow’s stage is hugely important for the mountains classification and so we can expect a pretty fast start with lots of attacks. It won’t necessarily take an awful lot of time for the break to get formed but the break definitely won’t escape straight from the gun.

 

The Polish national team have a double mission. On one hand they want to have a rider in the break to go for the mountains and sprints jerseys. At the same time, they have to stay with their leader Zielinski who is also the leaders of the mountains competition. Hence, they may put a rider in the early break. Of course Zielinski would be the ideal rider but that is very unlikely to be possible.

 

In any case, they will definitely control the stage to honour the jersey as much as they can and that will allow the GC riders to sit back in the first part of this very long stage. However, we expect Sky to take control as soon as we get to the circuit. Lampre-Merida, Tinkoff-Saxo and Katusha also have strong teams of climbers who would like the race to b hard and so it would be no surprise if they also hit the front when the going gets tough.

 

The hilly circuit will be the scene of a gradual elimination race. Especially the final two climbs are pretty steep and they can do a lot of damage if the GC teams set a fast pace. Hence, we expect a pretty small field to start the final lap of the circuit. With Sky expected to set a fast pace, it won’t be easy for the early break to make it and we expect the GC riders to decide the stage on the final lap.

 

The final lap is likely to be very aggressive with lots of attacks. Some of the minor riders may give it a go already on the first climb but that ascent is not very tough. Furthermore, there will be a headwind so we expect the main contenders to save their energy for the final two climbs. It would be no surprise if Sky try to make the race as hard as possible on the penultimate ascent and then it will be up to Henao to make the difference on the final climb which is clearly the hardest.

 

Henao and the other climbers will regret the fact that there is a headwind in the final 10km. That will make it very hard for a single rider to stay away in the finale. On the other hand, the final climb is so hard that most riders are likely to be isolated in the finale and it will be hard for anyone to organize a chase. Hence, it is definitely possible for a single riders or a small group to make it to the finish if they can make the difference on the climb.

 

On the other hand, Michal Kwiatkowski and Diego Ulissi want a sprint finish and if they find themselves in a chase group, they can probably rely on Gianluca Brambilla and Przemyslaw Niemiec to bring it back together for a sprint from a small group of GC contenders. This means that this is the most likely outcome of the stage. However, if they have to go full gas in the finale to reel in attackers, the door is always open for a late attack and even though they will be helped by a headwind, it won’t be easy to control the final 10km of the stage.

 

Nonetheless, we will expect the stage to be decided in a sprint from a group of GC riders. The final 3km are slightly uphill at 2-3% which is not enough to make a difference. Hence, this is a stage for punchy climbers who have a fast sprint on a slightly uphill finishing straight.

 

One of them is Diego Ulissi. The Italian has used the first part of the season to get back into the racing rhythm after he missed a big part of the 2014 season due to his salbutamol case. He was clearly not at his best in the Giro but he still managed to come away with a stage win. He showed great form after the Italian grand tour as he was among the best in the Tour de Slovenie and gave Vincenzo Nibali a run for his money at the Italian championships.

 

Now he is gearing up for the second half of the season where he is aiming at the classics and the Worlds. He returned to competition at the Trofeo Matteotti where he sprinted to a top 10 in a race that was too easy for him. Now he is ready to strike in this race but until now it has been a waiting game and so no one knows how strong he is at the moment.

 

Two years ago he was riding very strongly at this time of the year as he won a similar slightly uphill sprint in the first stage of this race. We expect him to be at a similar level and if that’s the case, he is not easy to beat in this kind of finish. Last year he won two uphill sprints in the Giro and this year he added another win to his tally in a sprint that is very similar to tomorrow’s. In general, he is very strong in this kind of sprint and even though he would have preferred it to be slightly steeper, it is a very good stage for him. He will have an in-form Niemiec to help him control things in the finale and we expect him to be strong enough to keep up with the best. In the past, he has suffered a bit in longer races but in the Giro he won a stage of more than 260km. Tomorrow’s stage is shorter so he should be able to handle the challenge. This makes Ulissi our favourite to win the stage.

 

Another rider who is very fast in this kind of sprint is local hero Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole is obviously one of the favourites to win the race overall as it is simply tailor-made for him. In fact, we have no doubt that he will come out on top if he is at 100%. However, whether that’s the case is still a very big question. He has never managed to reach his best level in 2015 and he rode very poorly at the Tour. He claims to be fresher now but until now we have not a chance to see how he is going.

 

Kwiatkowski’s level is an open question and we are curious to see how he will handle the climbs. If he is at his Tour level, he won’t be able to keep up with the best but if he has recovered well, this stage is tailor-made for him. He doesn’t have to go on the offensive and can wait for a sprint finish where he can probably rely on Gianluca Brambilla to control things and do the lead-out. In a flat sprint, he is usually faster than Ulissi who has the upper hand in an uphill sprint. This sprint is a bit of a mix so it should be a close fight if they are both there in the finale.

 

Sergio Henao is probably the best climber in this race and he will do his utmost to drop his rivals on the final climb which suits him pretty well. In 2012, he rode away from everyone in the queen stage but was caught by Moser and Kwiatkowski less than one kilometre from the finish. Tomorrow we could see a repeat of that stage as we wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to crest the summit of the final climb as the lone leader. However, it won’t be easy to keep the chasers at bay in a headwind.

 

Even if he is caught, Henao will have a chance in a sprint finish. The Colombian is pretty punchy and has a decent turn of speed. Ulissi and Kwiatkowski are definitely faster but there is no guarantee that they will be there in the end. Hence, Henao has multiple opportunities to win this stage.

 

We are curious to see how Ilnur Zakarin will do in tomorrow’s stage. The Russian has had a remarkable WorldTour debut and if he has the legs he had in the spring, it won’t be easy for anyone to keep up with him on the climbs. Unfortunately, he didn’t look very strong in the Tour de Wallonie but he may only have used that race for preparation. Katusha have been riding very carefully near the front in this race and seem to have lots of confidence in their strong Russian. He is one of the best climbers in this race and as he is also fast in a sprint, he can win this stage in multiple ways.

 

Fabio Aru is definitely the biggest name in the Astana team but he is mainly here to prepare for the Vuelta. Last year he was far from his best level in this race and we don’t expect it to be any different in 2015. This could open the door for some of the strong riders in the Astana team to go for success. One of them is Paolo Tiralongo who used the Giro to prove that he not slowing down at all despite being close to retirement. If the Italian has the legs he had in the Grand Tour, he should be there in the finale and he has a very fast sprint in this kind of finale.

 

His teammate Alexey Lutsenko is even faster. The former U23 world champion is constantly getting better and he was really impressive when he won a stage in the Tour de Suisse. Until now, he has been unable to keep up with the best on the climbs in the WorldTour races but this stage should suit him well as it is not too hard. He still has to step up his level to be there at the end of this kind of stage but if he can do so, he won’t be easy to beat in a sprint form a small group.

 

Ion Izagirre is our favourite to win the race overall and the Basque is looking very strong. Unfortunately, he crashed in stage 2 but it seems that he has recovered pretty well. On one hand, he can allow himself to allow defensively as he is a better time triallist than most. On the other hand, he needs to get rid of Kwiatkowski who is usually even stronger in the race against the clock. There is little doubt that he is one of the best climbers in this race and he could be the one to make a late attack or stay with Henao on the final climb. Of course he won’t be Kwiatkowski or Ulissi in a sprint but he has a decent finishing speed and so has a chance if the fastest riders are no longer there.

 

Davide Formolo is one of the most talented climbers but unfortunately his 2015 season has not been at the same level as his remarkable debut year. He managed to win a stage in the Giro but he has not been climbing at the same level. However, many riders benefit a lot from doing their first three-week race so we are curious to find out how he will do in this race. If he has the legs he had last year, he could turn out to be the strongest on the climbs. Unfortunately, he is not fast in a sprint and so he needs to arrive solo at the finish to win the stage.

 

Davide Rebellin may turn 44 in a few days but the Italian is not slowing down. Last year he won the Giro dell’Emilia and this year he rode very strongly in the Tour of Turkey. Of course this race is at a higher level but he has proved that he can still match the best. This stage suits him well as the climbs are not too long. He has a decent sprint but of course he needs to get rid of the fastest before we get to the finishing straight.

 

Ben Hermans has had a remarkable season. He on Brabantse Pijl and a stage of the Tour of Yorkshire and recently he finished second in the Tour of Austria. This stage suits an Ardennes specialist like him really well and his performance in Austria proves that he has the right condition to be a contender. He has a decent sprint but his best chance to win the stage is by going on the attack in the final 10km which will be very hard for anyone to control.

 

Astana have one of the strongest teams in this race and there is a big chance that they will have strength in numbers. This will allow them to go on the attack in the final 10km. Lutsenko and Tiralongo can wait for the sprint while Fabio Aru, Diego Rosa and Dario Cataldo can try to make moves. If there are several Astana riders in the group, it won’t be easy for anyone to keep them under control.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo are riding in support of Robert Kiserlovski and Pawel Poljanski. The former is the better climber but the latter is probably better suited to this kind of terrain. The Pole was stronger than his teammate in Austria and in multiple races he has proved that he is getting better and better on the climbs. He is hugely motivated to shine on home soil and there is a solid chance that he will be there in the finale. Then he will be ready to go on the attack. Kiserlovski is a second option but this stage is probably too easy for him and he needs to arrive solo at the finish to win the stage.

 

Ilnur Zakarin is not the only Katusha card. Sergei Chernetskii provides them with a second option for the GC and for the stage. The Russian is a big talent but he has been hugely inconsistent. Last year he ended the season very strongly but this year he has been unable to build on his progress. There is a big chance that he will find the final climbs a bit too tough but if he is there at the finish, he is one of the select few who can win a sprint.

 

BMC have more cards to play. Darwin Atapuma and Dylan Teuns are both great climbers and the former is even a former stage winner in this race. Hermans is probably their best card as he is the fastest sprinter of the trio but there is a solid chance that the Americna team will have more cards to play in the finale. This could open the door for Atapuma and Teuns to go on the attack.

 

Jurgen Van den Broeck is one of the favourites for the overall win as he has improved his time trialling a lot. He is no longer the climber he once was but he should be able to keep up with the best in this kind of stage. He won’t win a sprint but he will be ready to attack in the finale. That’s how he won a stage in the Dauphiné a few years ago and he would love to repeat it here.

 

Rinaldo Nocentini and Moreno Moser are both fast riders who can win this kind of uphill sprint. However, the former is rarely at his best at this time of the year and the latter has not been at his best for a few years. We don’t expect them to be there in the finale but if they can overcome the climbs, they have a chance in a sprint

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Diego Ulissi

Other winner candidates: Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao

Outsiders: Ilnur Zakarin, Paolo Tiralongo, Alexey Lutsenko, Ion Izagirre

Jokers: Davide Formolo, Davide Rebellin, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo, Diego Rosa, Fabio Aru, Pawel Poljanski, Sergei Chernetskii, Robert Kiserlovski, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Darwin Atapuma, Dylan Teuns, Rinaldo Nocentini, Moreno Moser, Sebastien Reichenbach