The first stage in the mountains whittled the number of overall contenders significantly down and now only a select few still have a chance to win the Tour de Pologne. Tomorrow the list will be whittled even more down in the queen stage which is a lot harder in today’s challenge and will give the climbers a final chance to gain time on strong time triallists like Ion Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Chrsitophe Riblon and Diego Ulissi.

 

The course

It has become a tradition for the Tour de Pologne to have the classic stage on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska on the penultimate day of the race. It made its debut in 2010 and since then it has been on the course every year and so it well-known by many of the riders. This year there is no doubt that it will the queen stage of the race and with the only uphill finish in the race, this is the day for the climbers to really make their mark.

 

The exact lay-out of the stage varies a bit from year to year. The 2015 edition of the stage is 174km long, brings the riders from the Bukovina Terma Hotel to the finish on the top of the Bukowina Tatrzanska climb and is identical to last year’s stage. Having started the finish at the start-finish area, the riders cover the first part of the main 38.4km circuit before making a small digression to head to the city of Zakopane. Here they will do three laps of a slightly hilly 5.3km circuit and contest a special sprint on the third lap before returning to the circuit to complete it and make it back to the finish line.

 

The rest of the stage is now made up of three laps of the circuit. It consists of three climbs and their subsequent descents with no flat roads in between. The category 1 Zab climb (4.5km, 5.8%) which the riders already did in the previous stage. The kilometres average 4.0%, 7.5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and it has a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint. Next in line is the category 1 Gliczarow Gorny (5.5km, 5.7%) is the first. The first half is relatively easy but it gets much steeper near the top and has a tough 21.5% section at its midpoint. The final difficulty has not been categorized but the 5.0km ascent with an average gradient of 4.4% has the finish line located at its top. After an easy start, the third kilometre is the hardest with an 8.1% gradient and an 11.5% maximum but the final two kilometres are much easier at 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. The finish line comes at the end of a long only slightly winding road. There will be an intermediate sprint 31.4km from the finish on the final lap.

 

The circuit has been used in the four most recent editions. In 2010, Bauke Mollema attacked from a long distance to open up a 7-second gap on a small group at the finish, in 2011 Daniel Martin put 1 second into his nearest chaser Wout Poels while race leader Peter Sagan lost 13 seconds, and in 2012 Sergio Henao was reeled in by Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski just on the line, with the Italian coming out triumphant. In 2013, Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the final lap and made it up to the remnants of a big early break. Darwin Atapuma was able to hang onto his wheel and while the Frenchman rode himself into yellow, the Colombian took the stage win. 22 seconds later Leopold König narrowly held off Diego Ulissi who won the sprint of a 15-rider group of favourites. Last year it was a 12-rider group that reached the finish and Rafal Majka was able to open a 10-second advantage over Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the final climb.

 

 

 

The weather

It was definitely a wise decision by the organizers to move the Tour de Pologne from September to August. While the race was often plagued by extreme rain in the past, it has been a pleasure for the riders to enjoy great conditions for this year’s race. Nothing will change for Friday which will be a beautiful sunny day with a maximum temperature of 28 degrees. A few more clouds will appear in the afternoon and as it has been the case for a few days, there is a 25% chance of rain in the finale.

 

There will be a light wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part of the circuit and a headwind on their way back. Hence, there will be a tailwind on the first climb and then a headwind on the second climb. There will be a cross-tailwind on the final climb and on the finishing sttaight.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage panned out much like we expected in yesterday’s preview. The strongest climbers tried to make a difference on the final climb but the terrain was too easy to make big gaps. Hence, a bigger group gathered after the final climb and as fast finisher Diego Ulissi had no teammate at his side, it was virtually impossible to control. This opened the door for a smart Bart De Clercq who was less marked by most of the overall contenders to make the sneaky move that gave him the stage win and the race lead.

 

While De Clercq did everything right, the Cannondale-Garmin tactic was a bit surprising. Moreno Moser is probably even faster than Ulissi and could have put himself in a perfect position to go for both the stage and the overall victory if it had been kept together for a sprint. He had a very strong Davide Formolo at his side but the team started to chase way too late. In the end, it was all in vain though and it didn’t matter at all as Moser got cramps on the final climbs and so dropped out of overall contention.

 

De Clercq now finds himself in the overall lead but it will be hard for him to win the race. He is no bad time triallist but there are much bigger specialists in the group that decided the stage. Furthermore, De Clercq is definitely not an explosive climber so he will suffer in tomorrow’s stage which is suited to the puncheurs. He is climbing really well so he won’t lose much time but he won’t be able to keep up with the best. Furthermore, he will no longer have the freedom to anticipate the final climbs.

 

For the climbers, it was an important day as strong time triallists like Dario Cataldo, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Riccardo Zoidl, Alexey Lutsenko and Lawson Craddock all lost too much time to still be in contention for the victory. However, Ion Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Christophe Riblon and Diego Ulissi are still there and they are all very strong in the race against the clock. Hence, the likes of Davide Formolo, Fabio Aru, Sergio Henao and Sebastien Reichenbach who were among the strongest on the climbs all have to go on the offensive in the queen stage if they want to win the race.

 

They definitely have the terrain to do so as the stage is definitely not easy. The circuit is well-known by most of the riders as it has been used several times in the past and the entire stage is even completely identical to last year’s stage. However, history also shows that it is not a stage to make major differences and it will be hard for them to gain so much time that they can keep the best time triallists at bay in the time trial.

 

The climbs may all have some steep sections but their average gradients are not fearsome and the final few kilometres are pretty easy. In fact, only Riblon and Majka have been able to make a bigger difference and the time gaps will definitely be a matter of seconds. It’s a day more for puncheurs than real climbers.

 

Today it took a long time for the break to be established and tomorrow it will be more of the same. Many teams no longer have a chance to win the race overall and so their only chance to chase success is to go on the attack. History shows that this stage is not easy to control and in 2013 it was a very big group of strong climbers that got clear after a hectic opening. In the end, Atapuma emerged from that group to win the stage and so they all not that it is possible to create a surprise.

 

This means that the GC teams really have to be on their toes in the early part to make sure that the break is not too strong. However, in this kind of terrain, the break is destined to include a few very strong climbers and it would be no surprise to see several of the contenders who sit less than 2 minutes behind, go on the attack. If that’s the case, they will have to be kept firmly under control and this will make it a hard stage. At the same time, the battle for the mountains jersey is fierce and lots of riders have indicated that they have their eye on that tunic.

 

When the break has gone clear, it will be left to Lotto Soudal to control the race. They have a very strong team for this race. In fact, they had four riders in the 42-rider group that hit the bottom of the penultimate climb in today’s stage and the likes of Sander Armee, Maxime Monfort and Jurgen Van den Broeck should be strong enough to keep this race under control.

 

At the same time, Astana and Sky want to blow this race apart. Already today they tried to make the race hard and tomorrow they will have the same plan. They probably have the strongest climbing teams in this race so they can really do a lot of damage. We expected them to hit the front in the final two laps and from there it will probably be an elimination race. Unfortunately, both teams lost a few contenders in today’s stage, meaning that Sky only have Henao and Nieve and Astana only have Aru as potential overall winners. Hence, they cannot use their strong teams to ride offensively and will have to ride on the front to make things tough.

 

This means that it will probably be a relatively small group that will decide the stage on the final two climbs. On the final climb, they can only gain seconds so they need to try to make the difference already on the penultimate ascent like Henao did three years ago. That climb has a very steep kilometre where a lot of damage can be done. The perfect scenario for Henao, Aru and Formolo who seem to be the best three climbers would be to get away together and then decide everything on the final ascent. However, there will be headwind in the finale and that will make it difficult to stay away.

 

Like today, there is a big chance that a small group will be together after the penultimate climb and then the door will be open for attacks. This could create a surprise outcome like we saw today but with a harder finale, it is more likely than one of the favourites will win the stage as it will be easier to make a difference.

 

Today we got the impression that Fabio Aru, Sergio Henao and Davide Formolo were the best riders. The Colombian was maybe a step below the two Italians but he has the advantage of being the better sprinter of the three. We expect those three riders to be able to make a difference on the steepest section of the penultimate climb and on the steepest section of the final climb and so they are the favourites to win the stage.

 

As said, Henao was maybe a step below the rest in today’s stage but he will benefit from the fact that the final two kilometres are relatively easy. It won’t be easy for a single rider to stay away on the slightly rising roads in the finale and this should play into the hands of the Colombian. The Sky captain is clearly not at the level he was in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but he is riding pretty well. If it comes down to a sprint between the three best climbers, he will be hard to beat and so he is our favourite to take the win.

 

Today Fabio Aru was probably the strongest rider in the race. He made the peloton explode on the final climb and still had enough left to join Davide Formolo when he attacked near the top. Astana made a big mistake by going all in for Lutsenko but Aru was probably a bit surprised that he was riding so well in his first race after a long break.

 

Tomorrow it will be all for Aru and he can count on a very strong team to support him. We won’t be surprised if he drops everybody else in the steepest section and rides away for a solo win. Furthermore, he is relatively fast in an uphill sprint and he will be able to beat most of his rivals in a final dash to the line.

 

Ever since his professional debut we have described Davide Formolo as one of the biggest climbing talent. However, he seemed to have lost the edge in the early part of the year which was pretty disappointing. Of course he won a stage in the Giro but he was not even close to the level he showed in the early part of the 2014 season when he challenged Nibali at the Italian championships.

 

Like many others, he seems to have benefited from getting through a grand tour. He rode really well in today’s stage where he was able to attack on the final climb. Furthermore, he took a huge turn on finishing straight where he reduced the deficit significantly. Tomorrow’s harder stage should suit him better and we won’t be surprised if he turns out to be the strongest rider. However, he has to be stronger than the rest as he won’t beat the likes of Henao or Aru in a sprint.

 

Diego Ulissi finds himself in a good position to go for the overall win but it evident that the Italian is not at his best. Today he suffered a lot on the final climb but managed to make it back on the descent. Tomorrow’s harder stage will be even more difficult for him. However, the final two kilometres are relatively easy so if the strongest riders fail to cooperate, he will be able to get back and then he will be the favourite in a sprint.

 

Moreno Moser finally seems to be back at his best level after years of suffering. Today he was riding really strongly on the climbs and was only taken out of contention by cramps in the finale. Of course he was not at the level of the best climbers but he was not far off. If he can make it back to the front group in the easier final two kilometres, he will be very hard to beat in a sprint.

 

Sebastien Reichenbach have flown a bit under the radar in this race but today he was clearly one of the strongest riders. The Swiss seems to have become a lot stronger in the Giro and is now ready to reap the fruits in the final races as an IAM rider. Unfortunately, he is a poor time triallist and so he needs to attack. However, that also means that he will be less marked and so he may get the freedom to attack in the finale.

 

Today Ben Hermans confirmed that he is getting better and better. He recently finished second in the Tour of Austria and today he was one of the best on the climbs. He is tailor-made for this kind of Ardennes terrain and he has a decent sprint as he proved when he sprinted to fifth in today’s stage. Furthermore, he is still not regarded as one of the big favourites and this could give him the room to attack.

 

Davide Rebellin is still going strong. Today he was one of the best on the climbs and tomorrow’s harder finale and shorter climbs should suit him even better. He is relatively fast in a sprint but he doesn’t have the same punch as Henao. To win the stage he needs to ride offensively and he won’t be too heavily marked. Unfortunately, he often has a pretty defensive approach and he needs to change that if he wants to win the stage.

 

A rider who has the right aggressive spirit is Christophe Riblon who is always one of the best riders in this race. The Frenchman has had a horrible season but like always he has come out of the Tour in great condition. Two years ago he took the yellow jersey by attacking in between the climbs and he will again be ready to grab his opportunity. Furthermore, he is relatively fast in an uphill sprint. Unfortunately, he is a strong time triallist and that will make him less heavily marked.

 

That can’t be said about Mikel Nieve who is very poor in the race against the clock. However, he is one of the best climbers so he should be up there in the finale. He won’t be heavily marked as everybody knows that he will lose time in Krakow and so he could get the freedom to attack.

 

Ion Izagirre is probably the favourite to win the race overall and that will be his main goal in tomorrow’s stage. Today he was not quite able to match the best and he will probably be more focused on limiting his losses in the finale. However, he finished second in this stage last year and he is always a very aggressive rider. He is likely to get stronger as the race goes on and if that’s the case he could make a surprise attack in the finale and ride away with the win.

 

Ilnur Zakarin was off the pace in today’s stage but made it back in the finale to keep his GC options alive. He doesn’t seem to have the legs to win tomorrow’s stage but you never know with the strong Russian. He is a very aggressive rider and has a fast sprint. If he can anticipate the favourites, he will be hard to catch.

 

Finally, we will point to Diego Rosa, Chris Anker Sørensen and Darwin Atapuma. The former was incredibly strong in today’s stage where he worked on the front for a long time. Tomorrow he will probably be the final rider to support Aru as Lutsenko has dropped down in the hierarchy. He is out of the GC battle so if he attacks, nobody will be too concerned. Atapuma has won this stage in the past and Sørensen loves to go on the attack in this kind of terrain. They both lost a bit of time in today’s stage so we won’t be surprised to find them in the early break. Atapuma has proved that it is possible to make it to the finish in this stage and they will be keen to try to repeat that performance.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sergio Henao

Other winner candidates: Fabio Aru, Davide Formolo

Outsiders: Diego Ulissi, Moreno Moser, Sebastien Reichenbach, Ben Hermans

Jokers: Davide Rebellin, Mikel Nieve, Christophe Riblon, Ion Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Chris Anker Sørensen, Darwin Atapuma, Diego Rosa