The mountain stages in the Tour de Pologne are always about seconds and so it is no surprise that the GC is extremely close as we go into the most decisive stage of the 7-day race. For the second year in a row, the 25km time trial in the streets of Krakow will determine the overall winner and with two riders tied on time in first and second place and several strong time triallists close behind, the scene is set for a dramatic battle.

 

The course

In 2013, the organizers introduced the novelty of holding a time trial on the final day and apparently they liked the idea. Last year the final stage was again a race against the clock and again Krakow was the scene for the end of the race. In fact, the race has ended here every year since 2008. This year the final stage will be the exact same that ended last year’s race.

 

There are not many similarities between the 2013 and 2014/2015 time trials. At 37km, the 2013 course was longer as the riders will only have to cover 25km in this year’s edition of the race. Furthermore, the 2013 stage was held on a point-to-point course that was pretty hilly and included some nasty climbs. This year’s stage takes place on a completely flat out-and-back course that is held entirely within the city. There are a few turns at the start and the finish but otherwise, it is made up of long, straight roads. After just a few kilometres, the riders get to main road which will be the scene of most of the stage. They will simply travel along the flat road for several kilometres until they turn around and head along the same road back to the finish. In the end, they will approach the line from a slightly different direction, meaning that there are another few turns in the finale.

 

The fact that the course suits the specialists is evident from last year’s results. Here it was Kristof Vandewalle who beat Adriano Malori by 3 seconds while Stephen Cummings was third at 10 seconds. The best of the riders in winning contention was Ion Izagirre who was seventh with a time loss of 29 seconds while Rafal Majka’s 13th place was enough to take the overall win. In 2013 Bradley Wiggins beat Fabian Cancellara by almost a minute in a true demonstration of force. Otherwise, the final stage has been one for the sprinters and it has been completely dominated by Germans. Robert Förster won the first battle in 2008 while André Greipel was the fastest in both 2009 and 2010. Marcel Kittel took a fourth stage win on the final day in 2011 while in 2012 his teammate John Degenkolb became the latest sprinter to win in Krakow.

 

 

 

The weather

The organizers have had plenty of luck when it comes to the weather for the 2015 Tour de Pologne which has mostly been held under great sunshine. It will all end in similarly great conditions but the heat will be a factor on the final day as Saturday will be brutally hot. There won’t be a single cloud on the sky and the temperature will reach a maximum of a massive 34 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a southerly direction and it will be pretty constant throughout the stage, meaning that all riders will have similar conditions. There will be a cross-headwind on the way out to the turning point and the a cross-tailwind when the riders return to the city centre.

 

The favourites

Going into the Tour de Pologne, it was evident that the final time trial was going to be the most decisive stage. The Polish mountains are simply not hard enough for the climbers to make massive differences and like last year, only a few seconds separate the overall contenders. The mountain stages have whittled the number of contenders significantly down but the battle for the overall victory is still completely open as we go into the final stage.

 

In many ways, the situation is very similar to the one we had in 2014. Back then, it was Rafal Majka who had proved to be the best climber and went into the final stage with a small advantage over the better time triallists. Most expected him to come up short against Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti who are better time triallists but the Pole defied expectations by defending the lead and taking a popular home win.

 

This year it is Sergio Henao who has proved to be the best climber and has gained a bit of time on the better time triallists. However, his margin is a lot smaller than the one Majka had 12 months ago and he is even equal on time with Diego Ulissi who is usually much stronger in the race against the clock. Furthermore, Henao is not as strong as Majka in the TTs and so it will be a big surprise if Henao still finds himself in the lead when the race has reached its conclusion tomorrow.

 

However, the battle for the overall win is still extremely close and the organizers definitely have a good reason to embrace their new format for the race as it really sets the scene for a great finale. 10 riders are within 30 seconds of the overall lead and among those riders, Ion Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Christophe Riblon and Diego Ulissi have all done really well in time trials in the past. Those four riders are definitely the favourites to fight for the overall victory but look out for Bart De Clercq and Ben Hermans who have surprised in TTs in the past.

 

The course is completely flat and suited to the biggest specialists which means that it doesn’t do the climbers much favour. This is all about power and the ability to push a big gear which is clearly reflected in the result of last year’s stage where specialists Vandewalle, Malori and Cummings took the top 3 spots.

 

However, there aren’t many specialists left in this race. Kristof Vandewalle, Alex Dowsett, Anton Vorobyev, Michael Kwiatkowski and Alexey Lutsenko would all have been among the favourites to win this stage but they have all abandoned. This opens the door for the GC riders to maybe take the stage win. Furthermore, they benefit from the fact that the TT comes at the end of the race where they can benefit from their ability to recover.

 

One of the specialists who are still in the race, is Vasil Kiryienka. Going into the race, many expected him to potentially be an overall contender but the climbs have made it evident that he is far from his best form. However, very often there’s a big difference between doing a time trial and mountain stages and it is not rare for a rider to do very good TTs despite being off the usual pace on the climbs.

 

Kiryienka has developed into one of the best time triallists in the world. He has been in the top 4 at the Worlds three years in a row and this year he has won both the long Giro TT and the European Games. On paper, he is by far the best time triallist in this field and he doesn’t need to be at 100% to win this stage. He prefers longer courses but he should find the power sections and lack of technical challenges to his liking. He showed signs of improvement in today’s stage where he was a lot stronger than he was in the first two climbing stages. In this race, he is the biggest specialist and so he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Maciej Bodnar. The Pole enjoyed a remarkable comeback from a broken collarbone when he took a surprise win in stage 4. That proved that his form is already at a pretty high level and he will be ready to strike in this stage after having taken it easy in the last few stages.

 

Bodnar has always been a very good time triallist but this year he has clearly stepped up his level massively. He was fourth in the Tour of Qatar TT and fourth and fifth in the Tirreno TTs. He should find the course to his liking and there is a big chance that he will leave the race with two stage victories.

 

Going into the race, we pointed to Ion Izagirre as our overall favourite to win the race and nothing has changed after six stages. The Basque has been climbing strongly and today it seemed that only Henao and Aru were better than him on the climbs. Among the overall contenders, he is usually the best time triallist and this year he even seems to be stronger than he was last year when he finished seventh in this stage. He usually needs a hillier course to really shine but this year he was in the top 10 in a Tour de Suisse TT that was all about power. We expect him to be stronger than he was 12 months ago and so it won’t be impossible for him to win both the stage and the overall.

 

We are very curious to see how Jurgen Van den Broeck will do in this stage. The Belgian is a former junior world champion but since he turned professional, the time trial has been his weak point. However, while he is no longer the climber he once was, he is now a formidable time triallist. He did a fantastic TT in Romandie and was even better in the Giro TT where he was in the top 10 even though all the GC riders had much tougher conditions than the early starters. Most impressively he crushed the opposition at the Belgian championships on a course that is very similar to the one he will find tomorrow. If he can win that kind of race, he will be able to win tomorrow too.

 

On paper, Jesse Sergent is one of the biggest specialists in this race and if the Kiwi had been on form, he would have been one of the big favourites. However, he has just come back from his bad crash in the Tour of Flanders and it is evident that he is still far from his best level. This time trial may come a bit too early for him and so we will be a bit surprised if he takes the win. On the other hand, the course suits him well and if he is on fire as he has been in the past, he will be hard to beat.

 

Going into the race, we were curious to see how Dario Cataldo would do in this race. On paper, the course suited the Italian really well as he is one of the best time triallists among the climbers in this race. However, he is still not at his best level and so is no longer in contention for the overall win. That doesn’t mean that he won’t do a good time trial though. He has been climbing at a solid level so his condition is definitely not disastrous. He usually needs a hillier course to really shine but in this field he should be among the best.

 

Ilnur Zakarin has created lots of surprise since he turned professional and he is capable of creating another one tomorrow. The Russian is a former national champion in the discipline but he has now lost a lot of weight to improve on the climbs. This has cost him a lot of power and on this kind of course he is no longer as strong as he once was. He is still a great time triallist as he proved in Romandie where he would have beaten Tony Martin if he hadn’t had a mechanical. However, that course was a lot hillier and it will be hard for him to win on these flat roads. However, you never know when it comes to this talented Russian.

 

Diego Ulissi is a decent time triallist but he is very inconsistent. Last year he was an impressive second in the long Giro TT. However, that stage was a lot hillier than the one he faces tomorrow. This year he was third in the Tour de Slovenie on a flat course but that stage was much shorter than tomorrow’s. This stage is probably a bit too much about power for Ulissi but as he will be fired up in the battle for the overall win, he could create a surprise.

 

Moreno Moser finally looked like his former self yesterday until cramps took him out of contention. However, he was his usual inconsistent self in today’s stage where he was far off the pace. This makes it very uncertain what to expect from him in tomorrow’s stage. He is usually a great time triallist so if he is on fire, he will be among the best.

 

Silvan Dillier will be debuting his Swiss champion’s jersey. The BMC rider has clearly benefited a lot from getting through his first Giro and he has been riding better than ever since he ended the grand tour. In this race, he has been climbing solidly and seems to be in pretty good condition. He is no big specialist but if he can deliver a performance like he did in the Tour de Suisse, he will be among the best.

 

Riccardo Zoidl and Lawson Craddokc both have the potential to be great GC riders as they can time trial and climb. In this race, they have been climbing solidly and today’s third place was actually a small breakthrough for Craddock. They have both lost too much time to be in contention for the overall win but they are clearly both on form. Hence, they should be able to do well in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Christophe Riblon always comes out of the Tour de France in outstanding condition and this has made him a perennial contender in this race. For the third year in a row, he has a chance to win the race in the final time trial. In 2013 and 2014, he came up short and it will be a small surprise if he can change the outcome tomorrow. In the past, he has always been a decent time triallist but he has never been among the best and he is no longer at the level he once was. Last year he was 9th in this stage. It will be a surprise if he takes the win but he can definitely finish on the podium overall like he did two years ago.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo are out of the GC battle but they have two solid specialists for this stage. Martijn Keizer and Rick Flens should both find this power course to their liking. We are especially curious to see how the latter will do. Flens was once a great time trial talent but in the last few years his ability to time trial seemed to have vanished. However, he beat Tom Dumoulin at the Dutch championships, signaling a return to form. If he can repeat that performance, he will be able to do well.

 

Damien Howson and Jasha Sütterlin were among the best time triallists at the U23 level but since they turned professional they have had a harder time. It will be a bit of a surprise if they can suddenly turn things around but they have the potential to do well. Patrick Gretsch is very inconsistent in the TTs and usually needs to be in very good condition to do well. That’s clearly not the case at the moment so we don’t have too big expectations for him.

 

Salvatore Puccio is not known as a time triallist but he surprised many when he finished second in the Tour de Slovenie TT on a flat power course. In the last two stages, he has proved to be in great condition and he could create another surprise in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Marcin Baloblocki deserves a mention. The Pole is the national champion of the host country and will be fired up for this stage. He showed really good condition in the break on stage 3 where the peloton had a hard time catching him. He is unlikely to win the stage but is capable of delivering a surprise.

 

For other strong time triallists, look out for Petr Vakoc, Mattia Cattaneo, Peter Velits, Brett Lancaster, Marcel Kittel, Larry Warbasse, Nikolay Mihaylov and Kamil Gradek.

 

Finally, we have to make a prediction about the GC. As already said, we expect Izagirre to take the win. Diego Ulissi is likely to finish second while we will put our money on Riblon to take third. Zakarin and Hermans will both be in podium contention too.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Vasil Kiryienka

Other winner candidates: Maciej Bodnar, Ion Izagirre

Outsiders: Jurgen Van den Broeck, Jesse Sergent, Dario Cataldo, Ilnur Zakarin

Jokers: Diego Ulissi, Moreno Moser, Silvan Dillier, Riccardo Zoidl, Christophe Riblon, Lawson Craddock, Rick Flens, Martijn Keizer, Brett Lancaster, Damien Howson, Jasha Sütterlin, Patrick Gretsch, Salvatore Puccio, Marcin Bialoblocki