This year the Tour de Suisse only offers the climbers one big chance to make a difference. However, they have no reason to complain about the toughness of the climbing in the 2015 edition of the event as the queen stage finishes at the top of the brutal Rettenbachferner climb. A huge battle between the GC contenders will go a long way in determining the overall winner of the Swiss race in what is probably the hardest mountaintop finish at any major UCI race so far this year.

 

The course

The climbers only have one opportunity to shine in this year’s Tour de Suisse and they have had to wait until the fifth day to make their real mark. While they may be disappointed by the number of mountain stages, they certainly can’t complain about the toughness of the queen stage which is the hardest in recent editions. By heading into Austria for a rare stage finish in the neighbouring country, the organizers get the chance to skip the generally easy Swiss climbs and have a stage finish on the brutally steep Rettenbachferner. Coming at the end of a mammoth 237.3km stage with a total amount of climbing of 4112m, the steep roads can do a lot of damage and will make sure that the climbers are favoured in the 2015 edition of the Swiss race.

 

The long stage starts in Unterterzen and brings the riders over the mammoth distance of 237.3km in a predominantly easterly direction to Sölden and the summit finish at the top of Rettenbachferner climb. The first 80km are completely flat and may serve as a warm-up for the first challenge, the category HC Bielerhöhe which starts after a few kilometres of gradually rising roads. It’s a 34.4km climb with an average gradient of 4.0% and only the final 15km are really steep with a gradient of more than 6%.

 

The summit at 2036m of altitude comes at the 109.6km mark and is followed by a very long gradual descent. Then it’s back onto flat roads that gradually start to rise slightly as they get closer to Sölden. However, the remaining climbing all comes at the end when the riders get to the bottom of the category HC Rettenbachferner. The 12.1km ascent has an average gradient of 10.7% and it is the kind of climb that leaves no room for recovery. After an easy first kilometre of 7.1%, the next kilometre averages 11.2 and then the following three kilometres average a brutal 12.8%. Then there’s a chance to recover as the sixth kilometer ‘only’ averages 8% before there’s another 4km section where the gradient doesn’t drop below 10.5%. The final 2km are slightly easier with gradients of 9.9% and 7.9% respectively.

 

The Rettenbachferner was twice used as a summit finish in the now defunct Tour of Germany. In 2005, Levi Leipheimer set himself up for the overall win when he led teammate Georg Totschnig across the line to make it a 1-2 for Gerolsteiner. Two years later David Lopez took the first big win of his career but it was an impressive Jens Voigt who defied all expectations on the steep slopes by finishing second just 12 seconds behind the Spanish climber and ahead of riders like Robert Gesink, Damiano Cunego and Leipheimer. In that way, he defended the overall lead and he went on to take a second consecutive overall victory in the race.

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the riders have had much better weather than the forecasts have predicted. Tomorrow the meteorologists are finally not predicting a rainy day as the queen stage is set to take place under a beautiful sunny. It will be a cloudy morning but by the time the riders head out into the neutral sun, the sun is expected to shine. The maximum temperature in Sölden at the bottom of the final climb will be 7 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind before they turn into a cross-tailwind for the Bielerhöhe climb. On the descent and in the valley there will be a cross-headwind before the riders turn into a tailwind for the run-in to the climb. On the final ascent, they will be assisted by a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

There have been no easy days in the Tour de Suisse as the first three road stages have all been ridden at an incredible speed in very tough terrain. The GC riders have already tested their legs numerous times but apart from the bonus second, the main difference has mainly been made in the prologue. That will definitely change tomorrow when the riders tackle the queen stage which is the one they have all been waiting for. In fact, the first four stages have merely been a warm-up for tomorrow’s battle.

 

The Rettenbachferner is known as one of the hardest climbs in Europe and the numbers clearly show that it can create an enormous difference. On such a steep climb, the best riders don’t have to wait for the finale to make a difference. In fact they can attack already on the lower slopes and so they can gain a lot of time on the time triallists. The differences will only be made greater by the fact that the climb comes at the end of a very long stage with another very tough climb at the midpoint. This stage has the hardest mountaintop finish in any WorldTour race in the first half of the 2015 season and will go a very long way in determining the overall winner of the race.

 

The final three road stages are lumpy but none of them are expected to make any difference in the overall standings unless some of the GC riders can pick up a few bonus seconds in some of the intermediate sprints. Hence, the race will be decided on the Rettenbachferner and in the final time trial.

 

Tomorrow is the day when the climbers have to get rid of Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas and Simon Spilak who are the best time triallists among the GC riders. There is no doubt that the Dutchman is in a class of his own when it comes to TTs and he can gain a lot of time on the final day. However, he is too big to match the best climbers on this steep mountain and in fact he went into the race without having too much of a focus on the GC due to this tough stage. However, he has been riding strongly in the first part of the race and now he has decided to give it a go. He knows that he won’t win the stage and will just set his own pace on the climb, trying to limit his losses. He has made it clear that the overall victory will be within his reach if he can limit the damage to less than 1.30.

 

With Dumoulin on the defensive, Giant-Alpecin will be pleased to see a breakaway ride away with the bonus second. They will be on their toes in the early part of the stage to make sure that there is no dangerous rider in the early break but that should be a manageable task as the first part is very easy.

 

Other teams like Astana, FJ and Katusha aim at the stage win and the bonus seconds so they will have different plans. They will stay attentive in the first part of the stage to make sure that the early break is not too big or strong. With most of the stage being flat and the distance being enormous, it will be very hard for the break to stay away and so most will prefer to save their energy for stage 7 and 8 in which breakaways will have a bigger chance. Hence, the break will probably get clear pretty early.

 

With an HC climb at the midpoint, this is a very important day for the mountains classification. Thomas De Gendt and home rider Stefan Denifl will do their utmost to join the break and it would be no surprise to see them on the attack.

 

In such a long stage, the gap will probably get pretty big before the chase gets organized. We expect Katusha, Astana and FDJ to combine forces behind the escapees. They will make sure to keep the break within a reasonable distance and so it should come down to a battle between the GC riders on the final climb. The Bielerhöhe comes too early to make a difference and will mainly serve to accumulate fatigue.

 

We may not have had big time differences yet but we have already had a chance to see how well the GC riders are climbing. Especially the Michaelskreuz climb on stage 2 gave a solid indication and can be used to gauge the condition of the climbers. However, the Rettenbachferner is much longer and very steep and so it is a climb more suited to pure climbers than the heavier guys of which many did well on stage 2.

 

In the first two road stages, we have been very impressed by Jakob Fuglsang. Going into the race, the Dane was reportedly lighter than ever and was said to be flying on the climbs. He has clearly confirmed that impression as he has looked like the strongest rider on the climbs. He was part of the three-man group that took off on the Michaelskreuz and he seems to be at ease whenever the road is ascending. He has been involved in lots of attacks and has been riding attentively near the front which is a sign of very good legs.

 

Fuglsang is not a pure climber and there is a risk that the Michaelskreuz is a bit too steep for him. However, most of the best climbers in the world are all absent and the Dane is usually very good at gauging his efforts and not going into the red too early. That is very important on a climb like this one where it is possible to blow up in a very spectacular manner. To win the stage, Fuglsang will have to produce the best climbing performance of his life. However, he has been riding very strongly all year and as he seems to be even better in this race, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

On paper, Thibaut Pinot is the best climber in this race and he should find the steep Rettenbachferner to his liking. However, he is clearly not at 100% yet and he was unable to follow the best on the Michaelskreuz. On the other hand, this climbs suits him a lot better and there is no doubt that he will get better as the race goes on.

 

Pinot claims to not be very focused on the GC but he has been riding very attentively in the finales, finishing in the top 10 in every stage. This indicates that he is targeting the overall win and to do so he needs to shine tomorrow. It won’t be very hot and that usually suits him well. He would love to get a big confidence boost for the Tour but he still needs to show that he is close to his best form. However, the Frenchman is the best climber in this race and as he is clearly at a reasonable level, he should be up there.

 

We are very pleased to see Simon Spilak ride so well in this race. The Slovenian has been one of the best riders in the spring three years in a row but he has never been good in the summer races as he suffers in the heat. This year the Tour de Suisse has had pretty bad weather and this has suited him really well.

 

Spilak is a very good climber and he usually does well even on pretty steep slopes. He has proved so with several strong showings in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, Rettenbachferner is a lot longer than the Basque climbs and he may come up short against the pure climbers. On the other hand, he has been among the best climbers in the first big stage races of the year and he seems to have the same legs in this race. He suffered when he had to keep up with Thomas and Fuglsang in stage 2 but on this climb the balance may have been tipped.

 

Going into the race, Geraint Thomas was very discouraged by the Rettenbachferner as he felt that the climb would be too steep for him to be a real GC contender. However, the Welshman keeps surprising on the climbs and in stage 2 he and Fuglsang were clearly the best. Tomorrow’s stage is a completely different affair and we expect it to be too tough for the Welshman. On the other hand, he has surprised us so many times that we won’t rule out that he can time trial his way to the top faster than anyone else.

 

Since his excellent performance in the 2014 Giro, Julian Arredondo has been far from his best. However, his legs have finally come around as he approaches his debut Tour where he targets the mountains jersey. He looked very strong in the first two road stages and he should find the steep slopes of the Rettenbachferner to his liking. However, he usually suffers a bit on the long climbs as he is more of a puncheur than a real climber. Furthermore, he often attacks too early and tomorrow it is very important to gauge his efforts. If he can do so, he could turn out to be the strongest.

 

The 2015 season has been amazing for Kristijan Durasek. The Croatian won the Tour of Turkey and in this race he took a surprise win in stage 2. He is a pure climber and this stage should actually suit him a lot better. He was really impressive in stage 2 where he nearly managed to join the Fuglsang-Thomas-Spilak trio on the Michaelskreuz. There is no doubt that he is one of the strongest in this race but there is still a big difference between the Tour of Turkey and the Tour de Suisse. He will have to deliver the performance of his life to win this stage but we won’t be surprised if he again defies expectations.

 

Sergio Henao was dropped in stage 2 which was a bit of a surprise as the Colombian has had a remarkable comeback from injury. However, it is always difficult to return to racing after a long break and he should improve throughout the race. This steep climb should suit him very well and he will keen to prove that he deserves to be selected for the Tour de France. At this best, he is one of the best climbers in the world. Tomorrow he has a chance to prove so.

 

Esteban Chaves won a big mountain stage in this race last year and this year he is hoping to finish in the top 10. He lost a bit of ground in stage 2 but he is clearly getting better. Yesterday he launched a strong attack in the finale and this steep climb should suit him very well. Last year he came out of the Vuelta in very good condition and it seems that he has also recovered well from the Giro. In 2014 he finished third in the Tour of Beijing on the back of a grand tour. Tomorrow he may take a big win by benefiting from another grand tour.

 

Miguel Angel Lopez is one of the biggest climbing talents in the world but tendonitis has made the first part of the season tough for the Tour de l’Avenir champion. However, this race has turned into his breakthrough at the professional level and he should find this steep climb to his liking. It will probably be hard for him to such a long stage in his debut season but there seems to be no limit to his potential.

 

Rafal Majka delivered disappointing performance in stage 2 and is now out of the fight for the overall win. However, he still hopes to do well in this stage to boost his confidence for the Tour de France. Like Henao, he may have suffered a bit from his long break from racing and this stage should suit him a lot better. He was amazingly strong in stage 3 and if that is an indication of a turnaround, he should be able to do well.

 

Daniel Moreno has got a rare chance to ride for himself in this stage and he is clearly riding very well. In fact, he is at his best level since the 2013 Vuelta and this is reassuring for the Tour de France. However, he was slightly off the pace in stage 2 and he usually suffers a bit on the very long climbs. He likes the steep gradients but this climb may be a bit too long for him.

 

If he had been at 100%, Domenico Pozzovivo would probably have been our favourite for this stage. In 2012, he won the Giro del Trentino stage on the brutally steep Punta Veleno and he likes the steepest climbs. On the other hand, he prefers them to be slightly shorter than the Rettenbachferner. He is clearly already back in good condition and should only get better throughout the race. However, he still seems to miss the edge to win this stage.

 

Sebastien Reichenbach is a huge climbing talent but he has been fairly inconsistent in the first part of his professional career. However, he rode better than ever in the Giro and had deserved to win stage 8 of that race before he left the event due to illness. He seems to have recovered well as he was strong in stage 2 where he stayed with the best for a long time. If he is not too fatigued after the Giro, he should do well in this stage.

 

Finally, Winner Anacona deserves a mention. The Colombian won a stage in last year’s Vuelta and seemed to be on his way to a top 10 finish until he faded in the final week. His first year at Movistar has been tough but he seems to finally have ridden himself into condition. He is a pure climber and should find this climb to his liking. It will probably be hard for him to win the stage in this high-level field but he should be among the best.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Jakob Fuglsang

Other winner candidates: Thibaut Pinot, Simon Spilak

Outsiders: Geraint Thomas, Julian Arredondo, Kristijan Durasek, Sergio Henao, Esteban Chaves

Jokers: Miguel Angel Lopez, Rafal Majka, Daniel Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, Sebastien Reichenbach, Winner Anacona, Robert Gesink, Steve Morabito