Thibaut Pinot crushed the opposition in the queen stage but with a tough time trial on the final day, there are still at least four potential winner of the race: Tom Dumoulin, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas and Pinot. Before they get the chance to battle it out for the overall victory, they need to get safely through the final three road stages. While they hope to get a rest day in tomorrow’s flat stage, the sprinters will be targeting the win on a day that will be the easiest of the entire race.

 

The course

The first half of the race was not one for the GC riders but there really wasn’t much room for the sprinters either. They will find the second half of the race much more to their liking as the terrain gets a lot flatter. However, stages 7 and 8 have their usual nasty sting in the tails which could make them a bit difficult for the fast guys and so they will all have their eyes on stage 6 which is the easiest stage of the entire race and the only one that suits the pure sprinters.

 

The riders are back in Switzerland for a start in Wil in the northeasterly part of the country and the stage consists of a long 193.1km westerly run to the city of Biel. There are no major climbs in this part of the country but with a total amount of climbing of 1167m, the terrain is not flat either. However, there is just one categorized climb at the midpoint of the stage.

 

The first 80km are very lumpy with at least five smaller climbs but in general the terrain is descending. The hardest challenge is a small 2.9km ascent with an average gradient of 3.7% after 46km of racing. Then there’s a small flat section before the riders get to the category 3 Auensteinstrasse (1km, 8.3%) which summits at the 98.4km mark.

 

From there, the remaining part of the stage is lumpy with four smaller climbs along the way but none of them are very difficult or steep. The final 25km are the flattest of the entire stage and don’t pose any difficulties at all. However, the finale is very technical. The riders will follow a long straight road until they get to a sharp left-hand turn with 800m to go. Finally, there’s a 90-degree right-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

Biel last hosted a stage finish in 2002 when Tobias Steinhauser won the final time trial in that city while Alex Zülle finished third to secure the overall victory in the race.

 

 

 

The weather

Almost every day the weather forecasts have predicted rain and almost every day the riders have had dry conditions. Tomorrow rain is again on the horizon. After a sunny start to the day, light rain is expected to fall for most of the afternoon when the riders will be racing. Furthermore, it won’t be very hot as the temperature at the finish will be around 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have either a headwind or a cross-headwind all day. That will also be the case in the final few kilometres, meaning that timing of the lead-outs is of utmost importance.

 

The favourites

The sprinters often have a hard time finding the best way to prepare for the Tour de France. The two big preparation races Criterium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse are by no means flat and leave very little room for the fast finishers. They offer them a perfect chance to work on their climbing for La Grande Boucle but there aren’t many opportunities to test their lead-outs and sprinting legs.

 

While the Criterium du Dauphiné rarely has many sprinters on the start list, most of the fast guys prefer to head to Switzerland. In fact, the race is often dominated by sprint finishes but they are not the typical bunch kicks for the really fast guys. Instead, the Swiss race has often been a happy hunting ground for classics riders, puncheurs and tough sprinters who find the lumpy, hilly finishing circuits in Switzerland to their liking. This leaves very little room for the pure sprinters and it is no surprise that the likes of Marcel Kittel and André Greipel always fine-tune their condition in the Ster ZLM Toer which is a real sprint festival while the stronger guys like Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb always do the Tour de Suisse as their final race before the Tour.

 

The major exception is Mark Cavendish who is usually on the start line in Switzerland too. The Brit uses the race to improve his climbing and often leaves the race with one stage win in his pocket. The organizers usually design at least one stage that is destined to end in a big bunch kick and that stage is on the program for tomorrow.

 

No part of Switzerland is completely flat and especially the first half of the stage is lumpy. However, the final 25km are completely flat and there are no major climbs. This stage won’t be too hard for any of the sprinters. This is the stage that Cavendish and his lead-out train have red-circled and the day that they will target some success.

 

This also means that the breakaway will have little chance and everybody knows that. As opposed to this, stages 7 and 8 could potentially be won by escapees so most of the attackers want to save their energy for those two stages. Furthermore, the headwind won’t make it any easier for the break and so we can expect the break to be formed almost straight from the gun.

 

Etixx-QuickStep haven’t had much success in this race and they won’t allow themselves to miss tomorrow’s big opportunity. They know that everybody will be looking at them to bring the break back and they rarely give the break much of an advantage. After FDJ have set the pace briefly, they are likely to hit the front and we can expect Julien Vermote and Michal Golas to spend most of the day riding at the head of the peloton. They may get a bit of assistance from Katusha or maybe Giant-Alpecin but most of the work will be left to the Belgians.

 

Etixx-QuickStep know how to time the catch to perfection and they will make sure that the break is caught in time for a sprint finish. We can expect a pretty uneventful stage but things may get exciting with 18.7km to go when the riders get to the final intermediate sprint. Dumoulin is pretty fast in a sprint and if the break has been caught, he will try to pick up some bonus seconds. FDJ may have to use some of their fast guys Arnaud Demare, William Bonnet, Sebastien Chavanel, Matthieu Ladagnous and Arthur Vichot to try to take the seconds away from the Dutchman.

 

In the end, it should all come down to a sprint finish but with the technical finale it will be a very tricky sprint. With two late turns, positioning is much more important than actual speed and this makes it a battle between lead-out trains more than a battle between the sprinters. To win the stage, one has to be among the very first through the first of the final two turns and so we will see a big sprint between the trains as they approach that corner. Furthermore, the roads are likely to be wet and this could make this technical finale dangerous, meaning that some of the sprinters may prefer not to take too many risks in the sprint.

 

There is no doubt that Mark Cavendish is the fastest rider in this race and there is no doubt that he is the riders to beat. However, his status as favourite doesn’t come from his speed but the fact that he has the best lead-out at his disposal. With this short finishing straight, he won’t have to do much sprinting himself and will have to rely on his teammates to position him.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Matteo Trentin and Mark Renshaw are a formidable train of very fast riders and they have lots of experience in working together. The combination Trentin-Renshaw-Cavendish is a winning one and they should be able to win the battle in the sprint to the first corner. It would be no surprise to see Trentin lead Renshaw to a perfect position just before that turn before the Australian accelerates to go through as the first rider. If that happens and he still has Cavendish on his wheel, no one is going to beat the Brit. The main challenge will be the wet roads as Cavendish may prefer not to take any risks.

 

This year the Katusha lead-out train has been very impressive. In the past Alexander Kristoff has usually been forced to position himself in the finales and he has often managed to do so excellently well. This year things have changed though as the train Marco Haller-Jacopo Guarnieri-Kristoff has worked excellently well.

 

The technical finale doesn’t suit a power sprinter like Kristoff who prefers a long, slightly rising finishing straight. However, he still has one of the best lead-outs in this race and this could make all the difference. Nonetheless, we are a bit uncertain about how the Norwegian is feeling. He has suffered a lot the last few days and doesn’t seem to be at his best. On the other hand, he won the GP Kanton Aargau just before the start of this race so his good condition cannot have disappeared completely.

 

Like Kristoff, John Degenkolb is a power sprinter who doesn’t like these technical finales. Furthermore, he often loses contact with his lead-out train and this can be very costly in this kind of finish. However, the Giant-Alpecin train is the only one that can potentially go up against Katusha and Etixx-QuickStep as Nikias Arndt and Koen de Kort form a very strong duo. The latter has given Degenkolb some splendid lead-outs in the past and if the Dutchman can nail it again, the German may make up for yesterday’s disappointment.

 

Peter Sagan is usually not fast enough to win this kind of pure bunch sprints but tomorrow he may actually have a chance. The technical finale suits him down to the ground and makes it less about speed and more about positioning. He has a pretty powerful lead-out train but actually he is often better off when he positions himself. He has Daniele Bennati to bring him into position and if he can benefit from his good bike-handling skills to get through the final turn in first position, he will be very hard to beat.

 

Arnaud Demare likes these technical finishes as he has the technical skills and the acceleration to shine in these turns. The FDJ train improved a lot in 2014 but this year they haven’t worked well. On paper, William Bonnet-Sebastien Chavanel-Demare is a strong combination but they will probably come up short against the stronger trains. Furthermore, Demare is still suffering from his crash a few days ago. However, he has the skills to win in this kind of finale.

 

Lampre-Merida have two sprinters and it remains to be seen whether Davide Cimolai or Niccolo Bonifazio will be the protected rider. In the GP Kanton Aargau they backed the latter but in yesterday’s stage he seemed to be suffering a lot more than Cimolai. Usually, the team would be riding for Bonifazio in this kind of finish but things may be turned around. In any case, they form a solid pair of fast riders and this should allow the protected sprinter to start the sprint from a good position.

 

Jurgen Roelandts is not a pure sprinter and rarely gets a chance to test himself in the bunch sprints. However, the Belgian is the protected Lotto Soudal sprinter in this race and he has a very strong team to support him. Kenny Dehaes and Jasper de Buyst are both very fast and they should be able to bring Roelandts into a good position. He is usually not fast enough to win this kind of sprint but as it is less about speed and more about positioning, he should be able to do well.

 

Jempy Drucker is no pure sprinter either but he has been doing some good sprints this year. He was strong in the recent Tour of Belgium and in this race he can count on support from fast riders like Greg Van Avermaet and Silvan Dillier. The Luxembourger has a solid acceleration and good bike-handling skills and should find this finale to his liking.

 

Tom Van Asbroeck has been suffering a lot in this race which mainly serves to build endurance for the future. Tomorrow he may get his only chance to sprint and he will be keen to show his cards. Sep Vanmarcke and Paul Martens are fast riders that have the speed to position him well. Last year Van Asbroeck was sprinting very well but this year he has been set back by injury. He showed signs of improvement in the Tour of Belgium and if he can continue the upwards trend he should be able to do well here.

 

Jasper Stuyven is riding amazingly well in this stage but this stage is probably a bit too easy for him. He doesn’t have the speed to win this kind of sprint but he has a formidable lead-out man in Fabian Cancellara. Those two riders worked well together in the Vuelta and if they can time things well, a good result may be in store for the Belgian

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, Niccolo Bonifazio, Davide Cimolai

Jokers: Jurgen Roelandts, Jempy Drucker, Tom Van Asbroeck, Jasper Stuyven, Borut Bozic