The sprinters had their biggest chance in today’s stage but it was the in-form Peter Sagan who used the combination of great bike-handling skills and a formidable acceleration to beat the faster guys. Tomorrow they may have an opportunity to make amends but a lumpier finale and an uphill finishing straight will make things harder for the fast riders.

 

The course

The second half of the race is mostly for the sprinters and the classics riders and after the easy stage 6, the terrain will be very similar on day 7. The stage is almost a reversed copy of the previous one as a flat start gives way for a lumpier finale. None of the climbs should be too hard for the sprinters but the stage has a small sting in its tail as the final 500m are uphill at an average gradient of 4%, meaning that the stage is more suited to puncheurs and strong sprinters than the ones who rely on pure speed.

 

The 164.6km stage starts in Biel and ends in Düdingen after a long southwesterly run close to the shores of the Bielersee and the Lac de Neuchatel, a short easterly journey to the finishing city and two laps of a lumpy finishing circuit. The first 60km are completely flat and leads to a slightly lumpier section albeit with no major climbs.

 

After 91km of racing, the riders will cross the finish line for the first time to start their first lap of the 36.8km circuit that will be covered twice. It’s a rolling affair with a few smaller climbs of which two are categorized. The road is slightly uphill for the first three kilometres after the passage of the line and then descends to the bottom of the category 3 Freiburgstrasse (1.1km, 6.3%). It is followed by a short descent before the category 3 Hauptstrasse (4.1km, 1.6%) (there are no official data on the climb which is probably shorter and steeper than our numbers show – the final 300m average 8%) looms as the next challenge. The summit is located 19.3km from the finish and from there the road is mostly descending until 7.5km remain. From there, the road is slightly uphill until the riders get to a short descent with 2km to go. The final 800m are uphill with an average gradient of 3.75% and there are no less than four roundabouts inside the final 2km. The riders will turn left with 1700m to go, pass straight through 400m later, take another left-hand turn with 800m to go before they turn left onto the 500m uphill finishing straight.

 

Düdingen hasn’t hosted a stage finish in recent years.

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders didn’t have their usual luck to escape the rain but fortunately they had dry roads in the finale. Tomorrow they are likely to have one of their most pleasant days as no rain is forecasted. Furthermore, they may even be a bit of sunshine even though it will mainly be cloudy. The maximum temperature will be 18 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction and it will pick up a bit as the day goes on. This means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind in the first part before they turn into a cross-tailwind. On the finishing circuit they will first have a tailwind, then a crosswind before they get into a headwind after the final climb. Then there’s another crosswind section and finally a tailwind for the final kilometre.

 

 

The favourites

Mark Cavendish had been waiting for today’s stage since the start of the race and his team worked hard all day to put him in a position to test his sprinting legs before the Tour de France. However, he had no luck in the finale where Peter Sagan did everything right in a technical finale that suited him down to the ground.

 

The decisive moment came with 7km to go when Julien Vermote and Zdenek Stybar both crashed. This forced Etixx-QuickStep to use Michal Kwiatkowski and Matteo Trentin way too early as the rival sprint teams made a gamble by trying to tire the Belgian team out. The tactic worked as Cavendish only had Mark Renshaw at his side in the very technical finale where it was all about lead-outs. This meant that the Brit never got into a decent position and as speed meant nothing on a 150m finishing straight, it was all over for the Brit.

 

Cavendish may now have to leave the Swiss race empty-handed. The final two road stages are both expected to come down to sprints but the finales are a lot harder. Furthermore, tomorrow’s finishing straight is uphill and this is clearly an advantage for the puncheurs compared to a pure sprinter like Cavendish.

 

This also means that the Brit is not the obvious favourite as he was in today’s stage and there is little chance that Etixx-QuickStep will do the same amount of work as they did in today’s stage. As this is still the best chance for Cavendish to win a stage, the Belgian team will probably do their share of the pace-setting but they definitely want more help from other teams. Otherwise they will let the breakaway stay away.

 

Tomorrow’s lumpier finale is more suited to escapees than today’s flat stage which means that more riders will be keen to go on the attack. Today the break escaped right from the gun but tomorrow there is a much bigger chance that the break will make it. Hence, we can expect a much more aggressive start to the stage and it will probably take some time for the break to be formed.

 

When the group has gone clear, it will be interesting to see which teams are ready to commit themselves to the chase. As said, Etixx-QuickStep will probably do some of the work. Today Giant-Alpecin and Katusha also took turns on the front and they should be there again tomorrow. The uphill finishing straight suits Degenkolb and Kristoff much better than today’s technical finale and this stage may actually be their best chance in the entire race. FDJ will do nothing as they are mainly focused on Thibaut Pinot. Arnaud Demare is still not at 100% after his crash so they won’t bring the break back to set up a sprint finish.

 

Today Tinkoff-Saxo had a free ride until they hit the front in the finale and it remains to be seen whether Sagan is still hungry for more or whether they will be content with two stage wins. In the past, Sagan has often let a break stay away at times when he has already won a couple of stages and tomorrow he may decide to again leave it to others to bring the break back. On the other hand, the finale suits him very well and as he has not had much success this year, we expect his team to do their fair share of the work.

 

A break has a chance but the most likely outcome is an uphill sprint. However, the finishing circuit is by no means flat and it remains to be seen how many sprinters will be there at the finish. On paper, the two climbs are not very hard but there are numerous smaller ascents that can make the circuit deceptively hard. That was the case two days ago in stage 4 where the stage was a lot harder than it looked on paper.

 

Furthermore, Tinkoff-Saxo will definitely want to make the race hard and they are likely to go full gas on the finishing circuit to make it as tough as possible for the faster guys. If they don’t have a rider in the break, Orica-GreenEDGE may have a similar plan and there is little doubt that the racing will be very fast in the finale.

 

The final 800m are all uphill and there are several roundabouts in the finale which will again make it pretty technical. However, the finishing straight is longer than today’s so this time we should have a real sprint and not just a battle for position.

 

There is no doubt that Sagan is not the fastest rider in this field but the Slovakian is clearly in excellent condition. On paper, John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff are probably faster than him in this kind of uphill sprint that is not very steep. However, we have been very impressed by Sagan in the first part of this race and he simply seems to be stronger than his main rivals at the moment.

 

Furthermore, Sagan is the best climber of the sprinters and if the race gets tough, he will be less fatigued in the finale. In stage 4, that was evident as Degenkolb was not match to the Slovakian despite the German being the fastest of the duo. Tomorrow’s stage is less hard but the late climbs are definitely in Sagan’s favour.

 

Finally, Sagan is a master in positioning himself and with the many roundabouts that is of utmost importance. There is no doubt that he will be well-placed when they exit the final turn and if he can stay a bit calmer than he did in stage 4, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

We have not been very impressed with Alexander Kristoff in this race. Things were looking good for the Norwegian when he won the GP Kanton Aargau but in this race he has clearly been suffering. Today he finished third in a finale that didn’t suit his skills as a power sprinter but he also seemed to miss his usual strength in the battle for position.

 

However, Kristoff can never be ruled out. He is brutally strong in these uphill sprints and on paper he is faster than Sagan. Stage 4 was a bit too tough for him but tomorrow’s easier finale should be manageable for him. Furthermore, he is great at positioning himself and he has a great lead-out from which at least Marco Haller should be there in the finale. A few years ago he beat an in-form Sagan in this kind of uphill sprint in this race and since then he has only become stronger.

 

Today’s stage was always going to be tricky for John Degenkolb who is very poor in the fight for position. Tomorrow’s less technical finale suits him much better and he likes this kind of uphill sprints. On paper, he is faster than Sagan and unlike Kristoff there is no doubt that he will be there in the finale.

 

Even though he is a great climber, Degenkolb will be favoured by the less hard finale compared to Sagan. That should leave him fresher than he was in stage 4 where he came up short against the Slovakian. The main challenge for him will be to start his sprint from a good position. Nikias Arndt and Koen De Kort are great lead-out men but Degenkolb often has a hard time keeping up with them in the hectic finales.

 

Mark Cavendish missed out on his biggest opportunity today but tomorrow he will try again. On paper the finishing circuit is not too hard for him but there is a risk that the profile is deceptive. In that case, the Brit may again find himself distanced and in any case it will take the sting out of his legs before the sprint. The uphill sprint doesn’t really suit him but don’t underestimate him in this kind of sprint. When he became world champion, he won an even harder sprint and it won’t be impossible for him to come out on top.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE no longer have Michael Matthews in this race and so local hero Michael Albasini is likely to be given his chance in the sprint. The Swiss is no pure sprinter but he is very strong in uphill sprints, especially if it comes at the end of a hard day. He can count on a strong Daryl Impey to lead him out and he has often beat faster riders in this kind of sprints. Furthermore, he may decide to go on the attack and history proves that he is virtually unbeatable if he joins the right break.

 

Arnaud Demare is still suffering from his injuries sustained in stage 2 and is clearly not at 100%. His team claims that he is feeling better but this stage may be a bit too hard for him at this point. On paper, it suits him really well as he is strong in these uphill sprints and if he is closer to 100%, he should be up there. However, he won’t have much support as Thibaut Pinot is the main focus for the team.

 

Greg Van Avermaet finished third in the uphill sprint on stage 4 and he will be keen to test himself again. He is strong in these finales but he won’t have a chance against riders like Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff. His best chance may be to join a breakaway and if the group is allowed to stay clear, he has all the skills to win in this kind of terrain.

 

The same goes for Martin Elmiger. The Swiss is riding very strongly at the moment as he proved in the Tour of Belgium and in stage 2 which should actually have been much too hard for him. He will probably do the sprint but he won’t win against the fast riders. Instead, his best chance will be to go on the attack.

 

Another good breakaway candidate is Enrico Gasparotto. The Wanty captain rode well in the Tour of Luxembourg and even claimed that he was maybe the strongest rider in this race. The final two road stages suit him really well as he is very strong in hilly terrain and fast in an uphill sprint. He won’t win a sprint but if he joins the right break, he will have cards to play.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo may choose to go on the attack instead of having to carry the main responsibility and this could open the door for the break to stay away. Their best card is probably an in-form Michael Valgren who is working hard to earn selection for the Tour de France. The Dane is very strong in this terrain and has the sprint to finish it off.

 

Sep Vanmarcke has been training at altitude and seems to be climbing better than ever. This terrain suits him really well and he will be keen to test himself before the Tour de France. He is fast in a sprint and brutally strong on the flats, making him a good breakaway candidate.

 

Jan Bakelants has been attacking numerous times in this race and is clearly in very good condition. The Belgian hopes to win a stage in this race and has proved that he knows how to finish his attacks off on the biggest scene. Last year he won a stage in the Dauphiné and if he joins the right break, he amy also win a stage in Switzerland.

 

Jurgen Roelandts finished second in today’s stage and has his eyes on tomorrow’s stage which harder finish should suit him even better. As a classics rider, he is suited to this terrain and he could try his hand both tin the sprint and in a break.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE will probably try to ride aggressively. Their best card is definitely Albasini but Daryl Impey is also a very good candidate to join a strong break. The South African rode really well in the Tour des Fjords and with his strength on the flats, climbs and fast sprint, he will be hard to beat if he joins the right break.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas and Matteo Trentin are clearly riding very well at the moment but won’t win against the faster riders even though they are fast in an uphill sprint. They best chance will be to go on the attack which they have often done in the past. The finale suits them really well and they are very good candidates for a stage win. Trentin could join the move to take the pressure off Etixx-QuickStep and will also do the final sprint if the finale is too hard for Cavendish

 

The same goes for Alexey Lutsenko and Danilo Wyss. Both are in very good condition and have been riding strongly in this race. They are climbing very well and are both fast in an uphill sprint, meaning that they are great stage winner picks from a breakaway.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb

Outsiders: Mark Cavendish, Michael Albasini (sprint or breakaway), Arnaud Demare

Jokers: Greg Van Avermaet (sprint or breakaway), Martin Elmiger (sprint or breakaway), Enrico Gasparotto (sprint or breakaway), Michael Valgren (breakaway), Sep Vanmarcke (sprint or breakaway), Jan Bakelants (breakaway), Jurgen Roelandts (sprint or breakaway), Jose Joaquin Rojas (sprint or breakaway), Matteo Trentin (sprint or breakaway), Daryl Impey (breakaway), Alexey Lutsenko (breakaway), Danilo Wyss (breakaway), Davide Cimolai (sprint)