A rest day has probably never been more welcome in a grand tour. After an enjoyable day in Andorra, tomorrow will probably be the hardest day on a bike for many of the riders as they will all be victims of Joaquim Rodriguez’ almost sadistic pleasures. Wednesday is the day of the queen stage that has partly been designed by the Katusha captain and has been described as the toughest stage in recent grand tour history, and with rain on the menu, everything is on schedule for an epic and dramatic day of racing.

 

The course

When the course for the Vuelta a Espana was announced, one stage got significantly more attention than the rest of the race. Already in November and December, it was announced that the race would return to Andorra and that Joaquim Rodriguez had played a role in designing a big mountain stage in the principality. The Spaniard did nothing to hide that he had put together what he regards as the hardest mountain stage he has ever done in a grand tour and when the full details were announced, it was evident that stage 11 will be the toughest challenge of the entire race. At just 138km, it is very short but with 4950m of climbing over such a short distance, it is evident that the stage will be brutal and it won’t be made any easier by the fact that it comes one day after the first rest day.

 

The 138km stage start in the capital of Andorra la Vella where the riders have spent the rest day and from there it heads straight into the Pyrenees in a sinuous system of circuits that sees the riders tackle no less than 6 climbs over the short distance. Right from the gun, they will start to climb as they get to the bottom of the category 1 Collda de Beixalis (6.5km, 8.7%) after just 3.3km of racing. It’s a very steep climb with gradients of 10-14% for most of the time before it levels out near the top. After the descent, it is straight onto the category 1 Coll de Ordino (9,9km, 7.1%) whose summit comes at the 32.3km mark. It is a pretty regular climb with a constant gradient of 6-8%.

 

The descent leads back to Andorra la Vella where the riders prepare themselves for another tough circuit on the southern outskirts of the city. Again it includes two climbs. Right from the start, they hit the bottom of the category 1 Coll de la Rabassa (13.8km, 6.7%) which is steep at the bottom with 9-12% gradients and then gradually gets easier and easier until it reaches 4-5% for the final few kilometres. The summit is located at the 72km mark.

 

After the descent, the riders hit the bottom of the famous category 1 Collada de la Gallina (11.7km, 8.6%) which has hosted a stage finish twice in recent years. It is a very tough climb with no room for recovery and gradients that alternate between 8-9% and double-digit figures, with the steepest section reaching 13%. The summit is located just 39.3km from the finish and is followed by a descent back towards Andorra la Vella. However, the riders won’t pass through the city this time as they will follow another road to go up the category 2 Alto de la Comella (4km, 9.5%).

 

There’s just a short descent back to the main road where the riders started the stage and here they will contest the intermediate sprint 10.2km from the finish and 1500m before they hit the bottom of the category 1 climb Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp which is the final challenge of the day. At just 8.7km, it is pretty short but the average gradient of 9.2% will take its toll. The gradient stay between 9% and 11.6% in the first 4km and then it becomes easier in the second part where it hovers around 7-8%, with the final kilometre averaging 8.1%. There are numerous hairpin bends on the climb, with the final coming at 1300m and 200m to go respectively.

 

The final climb has often been used in the Volta a Catalunya. In 2003, Aitor Kintana beat Michael Rasmussen here while it was Daniele de Paoli who took the win in 2001. One year earlier it was Jose Maria Jimenez who came out on top while Roberto Heras was the fastest in 1999. The Collada de la Gallina hosted a memorable summit finish in 2013 when Daniele Ratto took a surprise win from a breakaway on an extremely cold day that saw many riders abandon due to hypothermia. In 2012, Alejandro Valverde beat Joaquim Rodriguez and Alberto Contador in a sprint on a day when Chris Froome showed the first signs of weakness.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Stage 11 was always going to be brutal but the weather will do nothing to make it easier for the riders. When they last visited Andorra in 2013, it turned out to be a brutal affair as the cold conditions forced many riders to retire. This year the principality will again welcome the riders with rain and cold which will be a stark contrast compared to the extreme heat that the riders have had in the first part of the race.

 

It is likely to be a dry morning in Andorra la Vella but by the time the race will get underway, there is a 40% chance that it will be raining. As the day goes on, that probability will increase to 75% and in total, 15mm of rain are forecasted for the capital. The temperature will reach a maximum of 18 degrees while it will be between 8 and 11 degrees at the top of the climbs.

 

There won’t be much wind and it will come from different directions on the climbs. It will be a cross-headwind on the first climb, a tailwind on the second climb, a crosswind on the third climb and a headwind on the Collada de la Gallina. Then the riders will turn into a tailwind as they approach the final climb where they will have a headwind.

 

The favourites

Among the riders still in the Vuelta, only Haimar Zubeldia has done more grand tours than Joaquim Rodriguez who is currently riding his 23rd three-week race. Hence, it speaks volumes about tomorrow’s challenge when the Spaniard describes it as the hardest grand tour stage that he has ever done. He even knows what he is talking about as he lives in Andorra and has played a big role in designing the course.

 

Cycling history is loaded with big mountain stages but they always seem to have at least a short section of flat roads. What characterizes this stage is that there is almost no valley at all. The entire 138km route is up or down and this makes it the perfect day for exciting racing throughout the entire race. There is no reason to be afraid of long, flat sections with a headwind as it comes down to climbing and descending.

 

Furthermore, the climbs are all pretty long and very steep. Hence, it is no surprise that most of the riders have described it as the start of a completely different race. Until now, the riders have done an awful lot of climbing but they have only done a single long climb in a stage finale. Tomorrow they will make up for that by tackling five category 1 climbs and they are all much harder than the relatively easy Alto de Capileira. Until now, the puncheurs have had the upper hand, tomorrow it is time for the climbers to come to the fore.

 

Two factors will have a big impact on the stage. First of all it comes right after a first rest day and different riders have always handled that challenge differently. Experience plays a big role when it comes to handling this kind of interruption in the racing rhythm and so it usually favours riders with many grand tours in their legs.

 

Secondly, the weather will be an important factor. It won’t be very cold but it will still be completely different from what we have seen in the first half of the race. The rain will make the descents a lot more dangerous and turn them into a very important part of the race. In 2013 when the race last visited Andorra, most of the damage was done on the penultimate descent as many riders – including Alejandro Valverde – lost contact as they were unable to brake properly in the cold conditions. Different riders have different preferences when it comes to the weather and they will all handle the adjustment from heat to cold differently.

 

In theory, the GC riders could attack each other already on the first climb as the lack of flat roads will make it possible to ride aggressively. However, this is still the first really big mountain stage of the race and at this point, the main contenders are always a bit more conservative. Furthermore, the extreme nature of the stage will probably make them a bit cautious and we probably won’t see any real fireworks until we get to the second half of the stage.

 

Nonetheless, it will be an animated start to the stage. All the big teams want to have riders up the road and this is the kind of stage that can be won by a successful breakaway. That will be even more likely due to the rainy conditions. Brave attackers will be prepared to take more risks on the descents and with no flat roads to organize a chase, a strong climber who is no longer in GC contention, can finish it off in this kind of stage. Hence, it should be a very aggressive first climb where a combination of stage hunters and domestiques will try to get clear. Meanwhile, it will be a survival battle for the heavier riders and the time cut will definitely be a big threat for a big part of the peloton.

 

Tom Dumoulin finds himself in a difficult position as he has a team mostly made up of lead-out riders and sprinters. Only Lawson Craddock is a climber and even though Koen De Kort has been climbing really well, the Dutchman won’t have much team support. He will have to rely on other teams to control the race. However, he will probably get quite a bit of help as this is a key day for all the big names and so Giant-Alpecin probably won’t have to do much.

 

The fact that everybody has been talking about this stage for months, makes it a very prestigious one and there is no doubt that the main contenders would all love to win this one. Most notably Rodriguez would love to shine on home roads so Katusha should do their fair share of the work to control the race. It’s also a big day for Nairo Quintana so Movistar should also do some work. However, they don’t have many climbers in the team and Katusha haven’ excelled on the climbs wither. It won’t be easy for them to control a strong break in this weather.

 

We are very curious to see how Sky will approach the stage. Unfortunately, the lost Henao as a potential GC threat but they still have three riders in the top 11. They could really put their rivals under pressure by sending Nicolas Roche or Mikel Nieve up the road. To avoid any kind of working load, Katusha could try to have Daniel Moreno in some of the key moves. It will be harder for Movistar to use that kind of tactic as only their two captains are well-placed on GC and they will be too heavily marked to attack from afar. However, Alejandro Valverde has often proved that he is not afraid of attacking on the descents and as he is not at 100% after his crash, it would be no surprise to see him on the offensive in one of the late downhill section to get a head start for the final climb.

 

On the other hand, Froome is getting better. Until now, he has had a relatively conservative approach but this is a stage that he would love to win. There is no doubt that Sky have the best team in this race and they have the firepower to make it really hard if they apply their usual tactic by riding hard on the climbs to set up their captain for the final climb.

 

Going into this race, Astana looked like they had the strongest team but now Fabio Aru is their only GC contender. Diego Rosa and Luis Leon Sanchez are riding really well but this stage is too hard for the latter. The team will hope for a resurgence of Mikel Landa but they can’t create the kind of fireworks that they did in the Giro. However, there is no doubt that Aru wants to win this stage so they should do their fair share of the work to control the race while also keeping in mind that they only have seven riders.

 

Whether a break will make it depends on the composition of the group but as most of the GC riders want to win this stage, the most likely is that it will come down to a big battle between the best on the final climb. It’s not a long one but it is very steep and a difference can be made throughout the entire ascent. At the end of such a long day of climbing, it will be a true test of recovery, endurance and climbing legs.

 

Going into the race, we had Chris Froome on top of our list of favourites. That changed slightly after stage 7 but due to his showing two days ago, he is clearly back in pole position. He described his performance on the Alto de Capileira as a case of a bad day but was still pleasantly surprised by his showing on the wall in stage 9.

 

There is no doubt that Froome is not in his Tour de France condition and he has had a markedly different preparation. This time he has gone into the race underprepared and hopes to build condition throughout the race, hoping to avoid the usual drop in form in the final week. It seems that his form is progressing nicely. He has done pretty well on the short, steep climbs in the first week and only showed signs of weakness once.

 

On paper, the longer climbs suit him better but we are not completely sure. Last year his approach to the race was pretty similar and back then he was at his best on the short, very steep climbs while he had some tough days in his preferred terrain until he final hit better form in the final week. This time it could be more of the same and if that’s the case, we may see him ride his own race off the back as he has done so often in this race.

 

It is no secret that Froome prefers the heat over the rain and it is worth remembering that he lost the overall win in the 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico on a wet day in the Apennines. In fact, he has never really had to deal with a rainy day in the mountains during his grand tour reign so it remains to be seen how he handles that challenge.

 

Much has been said about his descending skills and there is no doubt that he is no Alejandro Valverde in the downhill sections. However, he has never been dropped on a descent in a grand tour and we don’t expect his descending to be a major issue tomorrow.

 

In theory, he can allow himself to ride conservatively – at least if he gets rid of Dumoulin – as he is the best time triallist. However, he is always ready to attack if he sees the slightest chance to gain some time and there is no doubt that he wants to win this stage. History shows that Froome is the best climber in the world and with a strong team to support him, he is our favourite to win.

 

Obviously Nairo Quintana is his biggest rival. However, the Colombian has sent mixed signals. He was clearly a disappointment in the first stages, especially when he was dropped by riders like Dumoulin and Roche in stage 2. He looked much better later in the race, especially in stage 7 where he seemed to be on top of things. Hence, we were a surprised to see him lose ground in the finale of stage 9. Of course that kind of short, steep climb doesn’t suit him but it was still markedly different from his strong ride to Mende on a similar climb in the Tour.

 

Quintana is much more comfortable on the longer climbs though and this stage is the one that suits him the best. As he said recently, he prefers the heat over the cold but he has proved that he can handle these tough conditions too. He is a solid descender and an excellent climber. Unfortunately, he is not at his Tour de France level but that’s not the case for Froome either. With a time trial coming up, Quintana has to gain time tomorrow and the best thing for him would be to take his first Vuelta stage win in the biggest stage of the race.

 

While Froome and Quintana are not at their best, Fabio Aru is a lot fresher and seems to be hitting peak condition just at the right time. He suffered a bit in the first part of the race due to a crash in stage 2 but he was the big winner in stage 7 where he gained time on all his key rivals. He defended himself well in stage 9 on a climb that didn’t suit him and now we gets to his preferred terrain.

 

Aru is an excellent climber but there is no doubt that he is not at Froome’s or Quintana’s level. However, he has the benefit of freshness and better form. Furthermore, he is probably slightly less watched than the two key contenders whose strong rivalry in grand tours could open the door for Aru to attack in the finale. He has proved that he can handle the difficult of a rest day and he has done well in cold conditions in the past, most notably on the epic Gavia-Stelvio stage in last year’s Giro and in the Tre Cime di Lavaredo stage in the 2013 edition of his home race. His background from cyclocross clearly pays off and this could make the difference and allow Astana to finally turn a poor race around.

 

The local fans will be cheering for Joaquim Rodriguez who would love to win this stage. However, the Spaniard has sent mixed signals in the first part of the race. He has not been at his usual level in the many finales that have been tailor-made to his explosive characteristics and he has never had the same kind of strength on the longer climbs. He is made for the punchy stages and not the big mountain stages and in fact he has not won a grand tour stage in the high mountains after a direct battle with the favourites since the 2012 Vuelta.

 

In the last two years, Rodriguez has not been at his best level and it seems that Father Age is about to catch up with him. Not having gone for GC in the Tour is a clear advantage and he should be fresher than both Froome and Quintana. Furthermore, he has loads of experience, is a good descender and knows how to handle cold conditions. He probably needs to capitalize on all those assets if he wants to realize his dream of winning this stage.

 

Rafal Majka has been riding extremely well in this race. He has had a poor season until now but like last year it seems that the first grand tour sets him well up for the second one. The Pole had a bad day in stage 2 but since then he has left the impression that he is among the best riders in the race.

 

Unfortunately, Majka doesn’t like the cold and the rain and he is not a great descender. In 2013, he dropped out of GC contention on the cold day in Andorra and there is no doubt that the weather will be a challenge for him. However, he has the benefit of being less marked than his rivals and this could allow him to make a race-winning attack.

 

One of the big question marks is how Esteban Chaves will handle the stage. Was his poor performance in stage 9 a sign of worse things to come or was it just a bad day? He may have paid the price for having to respond to the many attacks but one has to remember that he faded dramatically in the finale two weeks of last year’s race. He didn’t look too strong on the climb in yesterday’s stage either so tomorrow could be the day when he drops out of GC contention. On the other hand, he is made for this kind of stage and it is still too early to write him off.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has been anonymous until now but now it is time for the tiny Italian to strike. He prefers the longer climbs over the short ones and should be more comfortable tomorrow. He has the benefit of not being too heavily marked as he has flown under the radar. On the other hand, he doesn’t like the cold conditions and is still afraid on the descents after he crashed out of the Giro. As he went down on the descent in stage 8, he will probably be even more cautious. Finally, it is hard not to be left with the impression that he is not at his best.

 

One of the big question marks is Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard crashed in stage 9 and even though he suffered no fractures, he has reduced mobility in his arm. As he is not a pure climber, it was always going to be difficult for him to win this kind of stage but he is a master in limiting his losses. As said, it could be a good option for him to anticipate the final climb on the descents but much will depend on his recovery from his injuries.

 

As said, a breakaway definitely has a chance in this stage. There is no doubt that Rodolfo Torres will attack as he has his eyes on the mountains jersey. He was ill a few days ago and so dropped out of GC contention but he seems to have returned to full health as he did well in stage 9 and was on the attack in stage 10. The Colombian has had a fantastic 2015 season where he has been able to challenge the best on the climbs in most of his races. It remains to be seen how he will handle this weather but he is climbing well enough to win this stage.

 

The same goes for Ruben Plaza. Signed as a domestique, the Spaniard benefited from Rui Costa’s withdrawal to take a stage win in the Tour where he rode extremely well in the final week. In the French race, he proved that he can even be up there with the favourites in the summit finishes. In this race, he has gradually improved his condition and he was not far off the pace in the first big summit finish in stage 7. He has the diesel engine to handle this kind of mammoth stage and he won’t be easy to catch if he joins the right break.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have already won the first mountain stage and even though they have a team of big guys, they could take another one tomorrow. George Bennett is clearly getting better and better as he proved with a 21st place in stage 9 whose punchy finale didn’t suit him. He has lost 14 minutes in the GC so he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Kenny Elissonde won the big mountain stage to Angliru in 2013 and for the first time since that day, he seems to be back at the same level. He has been riding very aggressively in this race and we will be surprised if he doesn’t try to attack on the first climb. This stage with no flat terrain is tailor-made for him and as he is more than 6 minutes down on GC, he should get some freedom.

 

Bart De Clercq is riding better than ever. He was extremely strong in the Tour de Pologne and has defended himself well in the stages that didn’t suit him. Now we get to his preferred terrain and he should be significantly stronger on the longer climbs. However, he is only four minutes behind in the overall standings so he won’t an awful lot of freedom. On the other hand, he is not a big danger and this is the stage that is very hard to control.

 

Fabrice Jeandesboz is very similar to De Clercq. He prefers the longer climbs but has done very well on the short climbs too. Europcar are never afraid of attacking and there is a solid chance that Jeandesboz will be in the early move. He is only four minutes down on GC but the main contenders won’t be too concerned with him

 

Jurgen Van den Broeck is not here to ride for GC as his main goal is to prepare for the World TT Championships but he still wants to go full gas in select stages. Tomorrow could be a good day for the Belgian. He is not the climber he once was but he is still very strong in this terrain and he has been riding pretty well in this race. Being a Belgian, he is used to these conditions and a stage win here would be the perfect way to end his time at Lotto Soudal.

 

Fabio Duarte has had a disastrous season and is still clearly not at his best level. However, he has shown signs of improvement. At his best he is an outstanding climber as he proved in the 2013 and 2014 Giri and in 2013 he proved that he can handle tough weather conditions. Colombia hope to create some fireworks in tomorrow’s stage and with Duarte and Torres, they have two good cards to play.

 

Finally, Tom Dumoulin deserves a mention. It will be a surprise if the big Dutchman can defend his lead in this tough stage. He is much bigger than the rest of the GC rivals and has never been near the front in such a big grand tour mountain stage. However, he knows how to gauge his effort as he did on the very steep Rettenbachferner in the Tour de Suisse. Back then, he just rode his own race, time trialling his way from the bottom to the top, and he is likely to take a similar approach tomorrow. Being a bigger guy, he should be favoured by the tough conditions. He won’t win the stage but we won’t be surprised if he is still in GC contention at the end.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Fabio Aru

Outsiders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Rafal Majka, Esteban Chaves

Jokers: Domenico Pozzovivo, Alejandro Valverde, Mikel Nieve, Louis Meintjes

Breakaway candidates: Rodolfo Torres, Ruben Plaza, Kenny Elissonde, George Bennett, Bart De Clercq, Fabrice Jeandesboz, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Fabio Duarte