Fabio Aru put himself in pole position to win the Vuelta a Espana by delivering a dominant performance in the very dramatic queen stage and he should have plenty of time to celebrate his achievements before he gets to the next serious test. The next two stages should offer a chance for sprinters and attackers, starting with tomorrow’s mostly flat run to the traditional sprint city of Lleida.

 

The course

It is testament to the tough nature of the Vuelta that there hasn’t been a stage for the pure sprinters yet as we get to the 12th day of the race. The last big bunch kick was in stage 5 but back then the uphill finish made it too tough for many while the other sprint stages have had some serious climbing. The second week has provided them with an incentive to dig deep as there are two potential sprint finishes coming up of which stage 12 to Lleida is the easiest.

 

The stage brings the riders over 173km from Escaldes-Engordany in Andorra to Lleida on the plains in Catalonia. The riders will be pleased to know that they will follow the main road to exit the mountainous principality, meaning that the terrain is slightly descending as they head back to Spain in a southwesterly direction. However, the organizers refuse to let them follow the direct road to the finishing city as they will make a small deviation to the west and this will see them tackle the category 2 Coll de Boixols (15.8km, 5%) whose summit comes at the 54.3km mark. There’s no immediate descent as the riders will tackle another small climb before they finally get to the downhill section.

 

The next 50km are all downhill and then there is another uncategorized ascent with 54.2km to go. From there, there is just a small kicker to break things up along the slightly descending and flat roads that lead to the finish in Lleida. Along the way, they will contest the intermediate sprint with 29.7km to go. In the finale, the roads are very slightly descending until the riders get to the flamme rouge. A short flat stretch and a 100m descent lead to the final 300m that are uphill at 6.5%. The finale is very easy as the riders will follow a long straight road for more than 5km, with just a few roundabouts along the way. The final of those comes at the flamme rouge.

 

Lleida last hosted a stage in 2010 when Mark Cavendish beat Tyler Farrar and teammate Matthew Goss in a bunch sprint. In 2013, it hosted a stage finish of the Volta a Catalunya where Francois Parisien took a surprise victory in an uphill sprint.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had plenty of luck in today’s stage as the only rain fell on the way up the Collada de la Gallina while the descents were all dry. Tomorrow they are likely to have the same kind of luck. Rain is forecasted to fall in the morning but by the time the riders get onto their bikes, the forecast predicts dry weather. There’s a 30% risk of rain in the first part of the stage but in the finale the sun may even come out. The temperature will reach a maximum of 26 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction and it will only decrease as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have a crosswind from the right almost all day and that also includes the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The queen stage provided just as much drama as most had expected. Fabio Aru confirmed that freshness is a very important factor in the Vuelta as he was clearly the strongest and with Mikel Landa suddenly returning to form and Diego Rosa, Dario Cataldo and Luis Leon Sanchez all riding impressively, Astana are now back in the dominant position they had in the Giro. Before we get to the TT, Aru still needs to gain more time on Tom Dumoulin who did extremely well by time trialling his way to the finish, but with three consecutive summit finishes coming up, things are looking good for the Italian.

 

Unfortunately, we never got the chance to see what Chris Froome could do in this stage while Nairo Quintana paid the price for a hard season. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez are their usual consistent self in the Vuelta but like so often before it seems that they miss a bit to be real contenders for the overall win. Mikel Nieve saved the race for Sky, confirming the impressive signs he has shown since the Tour de Pologne, but with his disastrous TT skills, he is not a realistic podium candidate. The same goes for Esteban Chaves who doesn’t seem to fade yet but will lose enormous amounts of time in Burgos in a week.

 

The GC riders have scheduled their next battle on Saturday which will mark the start of the traditional triptych of mountain stages in the penultimate weekend. Until then, they will head into survival mode during the next two stages which could provide the sprinters with their final two chances before we get to Madrid. Many had to dig very deep to get to this point and there is no doubt that they will extremely eager to go for glory on the flat roads in Lleida.

 

However, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Matteo Pelucchi and Peter Sagan are all out of the race and so John Degenkolb is the only survivor of the four riders that were expected to dominate the sprint finishes. This will make things complicated when it comes to setting up a bunch sprint as Giant-Alpecin is the only team that will be fully committed to a bunch sprint. The rest of the teams will almost all try to join the break before they potentially decide to support their sprinter.

 

Hence, nothing can be said about the chances for the sprinters before we know the composition of the break. If teams like Trek, LottoNL-Jumbo and MTN-Qhubeka all have a rider in the break, they will do nothing to bring it back. This will leave Giant-Alpecin pretty isolated when it comes to bringing the group back and at this point in a grand tour, it is very hard for a single team to control an entire stage.

 

Furthermore, the stage is definitely not easy. With a 15km climb on the menu, there is a big chance that a very strong group will get clear and as the chase can only really get organized after the descent, they will have less than 100km to bring the break back. The Giant-Alpecin riders had to work extremely hard in stage 10 and they definitely didn’t have an easy day today so they will undoubtedly be very tired. Furthermore, Dumoulin is now a serious podium candidate so they can’t spend too much energy on a sprint finish.

 

In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise that Degenkolb was beaten in stage 10. Many of the lesser-known sprinters now believe in their chances to come up with a surprise and this could provide Giant-Alpecin with some unexpected help. In fact, most of the teams still have a fast finisher on their roster and many teams have seen their GC ambitions fade. As it is very unlikely that all the teams will be represented in the break, there is a solid chance that a few squads will combine forces to bring the break back. Hence, we expect a sprint finish but there are definitely no guarantees.

 

In any case, we should have another very fast start as most teams want to have a rider in the break. The best scenario for Giant-Alpecin would be to have the break established by the time we get to the climb. That will make it possible to go easier up the ascent and make the break less strong. If the break hasn’t taken off when the peloton hit the main challenge, there is a much bigger chance that the break will make it.

 

These plains in Northern Spain can be pretty windy and the riders will have a crosswind all day. That should create some tension in the bunch but with decreasing wind, we are unlikely to see any crosswind action. Everybody still has to be attentive but we don’t expect any big drama.

 

If it all comes down to a bunch sprint, it is important to notice that the final 300m are uphill at 6.5%. With a long finishing straight, the riders will already be going very fast by the time they start to climb so it probably won’t have a massive impact. Still it favours a certain type of sprinters who excel on uphill finishing straights.

 

There is no doubt that John Degenkolb is the big favourite. With hos four biggest rivals all out of the race, he is by far the fastest rider in this field. That was evident in stage 10 where he came extremely fast in the end but had to settle for second as he had been poorly positioned and boxed in in the finale. He paid the price for a lack of lead-out as the team had to burn their matches too early to keep things under control and the late climb had taken some of the domestiques out of contention.

 

Tomorrow there won’t be a late ascent and we can expect a much bigger field in the end. This means that Degenkolb is likely to have most of his team at his disposal. The combination Waeytens-Mezgec-De Kort-Degenkolb is by far the strongest train in this race and this should make Degenkolb virtually unbeatable. Giant-Alpecin have the fastest sprinter and the best train and to make things even better, this long finishing straight with an uphill finish is tailor-made for the German. This stage has Degenkolb written all over it so if it comes down to a bunch sprint, he will be extremely hard to beat.

 

The rider that could potentially do so is Danny van Poppel. The Dutchman was flying in late July and early August but he got this race off to a bad start. Since then he has had improving sensations and he has been riding pretty strongly in the last few stages. He was even in the break in stage 9.

 

The loss of Jasper Stuyven and Fabian Cancellara will be dearly felt in the lead-out but he can still rely on his brother Boy to put him into position. Boy is a very capable lead-out man but a combination of crashes and illness has made him suffer in the last few stages. He made it through today’s stage and hopefully he will be able to play a role in the finale. If that’s the case, it could be Danny’s chance to shine as he loves this kind of uphill sprint.

 

Earlier this year Tom Van Asbroeck had a very hard time on the climbs but the Belgian has clearly improved a lot. He has been climbing really well in this race and was extremely close to surviving the climb two days ago. This proves that he is still relatively fresh and he will be ready to go in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Van Asbroeck has one major advantage: his lead-out. LottoNL-Jumbo have lots of firepower on the flats and Dennis van Winden is a very strong final lead-out man. In stage 5, the uphill finish was a bit too much for Van Asbroeck but this shorter climb should not be a problem for the Belgian. If his team can put him into a good position, he should be able to do well.

 

Jempy Drucker is not a pure sprinter and has no team support. However, he has proved to be extremely good at positioning himself. He was fourth in the first two sprint finishes and proved that he is still fresh when he survived the climb two days ago. In a flat sprint, he would usually not be fast enough to win but in an uphill finish he should be able to do well.

 

Kristian Sbaragli took his first European win two days ago and there is no doubt that he is hungry for more. Unfortunately, this stage is probably a bit too easy for him as he usually needs a harder race to shine. On the other hand, he is clearly much fresher than most of his rivals and he likes the uphill finish where he can rely on Youcef Reguigui to put him into position.

 

Lampre-Merida have been very aggressive in this race but they also have an in-form sprinter on their roster. Maximiliano Richeze has already done well in the sprint on stage 3 while stage 5 proved to be a bit too hard for him. He is very good at positioning himself and has been climbing really well in recent days. He doesn’t have much support but he has proved to be able to overcome that hurdle. If he can find the right wheel in the finale, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Movistar’s overall ambitions suffered a blow in today’s stage and this means that Jose Joaquin Rojas should get more freedom to go for the sprints. He has been riding really well in this race and showed plenty of guts by taking third in stage 10 despite suffering a lot from a previous crash. The uphill finish suits him really well and he is usually good at positioning himself. It remains to be seen how he has recovered from his injuries though.

 

Peter Sagan is out of the race but that doesn’t mean that Tinkoff-Saxo are out of the sprints. Nowadays, Daniele Bennati doesn’t get many opportunities to sprint for himself but he will be given the green light in the remaining sprint finishes. He is clearly not as fast as he once was but he has lots of experience and a pretty strong team to lead him out. Unfortunately, he often stops his effort as soon as he realizes that the win is out of reach.

 

Without Caleb Ewan, Orica-GreenEDGE have to come up with a new plan. They have a team of very fast riders who are usually not fast enough to win a pure bunch sprint but who will have a chance with a good lead-out and in an uphill finish. On paper, Simon Gerrans should be their best card but the Australian is not at his best. This could open the door for Daryl Impey or Jens Keukeleire and it would be no surprise if the South African is the one to get the nod. Mitchell Docker is another option.

 

Carlos Barbero has not had the amount of success that he was hoping for and he has clearly been suffering a lot. However, he is still in the race and he will be keen to finally take his chance. He is usually not fast enough to win a flat sprint but with an uphill finish and a strong lead-out of Pello Bilbao and Jose Goncalves, he may have a chance.

 

Kevin Reza and Vicente Reynes are not pure sprinters but they will both be keen to take their chance in a sprint without many big names. Furthermore, the uphill finish should benefit them and especially Reza will have a good team to set him up. Neither FDJ nor IAM have had much success in this race so they will rely heavily on their fast finishers.

 

Finally, we will mention a couple of good breakaway candidates. With a flat finale, we have to look to in-form riders who are fast in a sprint and strong enough to get clear if the break has not been established when we get to the climb. Again we will point to the Caja Rural duo of Jose Goncalves and Pello Bilbao who are both fast and have proved their good condition. Matteo Montaguti and Pieter Serry clearly getting better and better and are fast in a sprint. Tosh van der Sande has been riding really well in this race and Daryl Impey is getting closer to his best form. Finally, Jay McCarthy seems to be riding well and has the skills to do well here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Danny van Poppel, Tom Van Asbroeck

Outsiders: Jempy Drucker, Kristian Sbaragli, Maximilano Richeze, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Daniele Bennati

Jokers: Mitchell Docker, Simon Gerrans, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Nikolas Maes, Carlos Barbero, Kevin Reza, Vicente Reynes

Breakaway candidates: Simon Gerrans, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Jose Goncalves, Pello Bilbao, Tosh van der Sande, Matteo Montaguti, Pieter Serry, Jay McCarthy