It seems that nothing will work out for John Degenkolb in this year’s Vuelta a Espana after the German missed out in today’s sprint and he may now have to wait until Madrid before he gets another chance to open his account. His only other opportunity comes in tomorrow’s stage 13 but a very hilly course and lots of tired legs mean that it is most likely to be a day for a breakaway.

 

The course

While the Vuelta rarely offers many opportunities for the sprinters, it is usually loaded with tough days of constant ups and downs and long ascents that never get very steep. This has made it a happy hunting ground for the strong sprinters who can survive the strains of a tough day in the saddle and still have something left for a solid punch in the end.

 

One of those stages comes on the 13th day of the race when the riders head towards Cantabria Asturias and the triptych of mountain stages that are going to decide the race. It brings them over 178km from Calatayud to Tarazona and mainly consists of a northerly run. The start of the stage signals the terrain that will challenge the riders for most of the day as they go straight up a small uncategorized ascent during the first 10km before they reach an easier section that is mainly descending.

 

At the 30km mark, the riders get to the toughest part of the race as the next 40m are almost all uphill, with two categorized climbs coming along the way. The first of those is the category 3 Alto Collado de Oseja (8.2km, 3.7%) which is a typical gradual Spanish uphill drag. The main challenge is the category 1 Alto de Beraton (10.9km, 4.7%, max. 7.5%) which has a relatively east start of 2-3% before it gradually gets steeper in the second part where the gradient hovers around 6-7%.

 

The summit is located with 106.9km to go and the final part is a lot easier. The next 50km are almost all descending and then there’s flat section that leads to the intermediate sprint at the 134.8km mark. Just 200m later, the riders hit the bottom of the category 3 Alto del Moncayo (8.5km, 4.5%) which is a gradual uphill drag.

 

The top is located 33.5km from the finish and after a short uphill section, they are mainly descending. However, the stage has its usual tricky finale. The road starts to rise slightly with 5km to go and after a short descent, there’s a small little 1500m climb that averages 2-3% and leads to the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is flat. There are no major technical challenges as the riders will follow a long, slightly winding road for more than 5km in the finale.

 

Tarazona last hosted a stage in 2013 when Fabian Cancellara surprisingly defeated Tony Martin in a hilly time trial that saw Domenico Pozzovivo do the TT of his life by finishing third. Race leader Chris Horner had a bad day and lost a lot of time to Vincenzo Nibali whose fourth place catapulted him into the overall lead.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were fortunate to avoid the rain in today’s stage and as things stand, they should have the same kind of luck tomorrow. Friday will be a relatively cloudy day and with a maximum temperature of 20 degrees, it will be much colder than it has been for most of the race. Throughout the entire stage there is a 25% risk of rain, meaning that a shower could very well make the roads wet along the way.

 

There will be a light winder from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind for most of the stage. After the first category climb they will gradually turn into a crosswind and then it will be a cross-tailwind on the final climb. A short crosswind section leans to more headwind and then it will be a tailwind and a cross-tailwind for the final 8km.

 

The favourites

John Degenkolb has won a total of 9 stages in the Vuelta a Espana and when he lined up for the start in Marbella, it was hard to imagine that he would not have added to that tally at the halfway point in the race. However, the German again missed out in today’s sprint and now he is running out of opportunities if he doesn’t want to leave the race empty-handed.

 

It was a big surprise that things failed for Giant-Alpecin in today’s sprint. On paper they had the strongest lead-out and even though it got tricky with the breakaway in the end, they had made the gamble by saving Koen De Kort and Luka Mezgec for the lead-out. However, the former was nowhere to be seen in the finale while the latter made his own lead-out in the left-hand side of the road while Degenkolb was boxed in behind his rivals. Hence, he never got the chance to sprint, just as it was the case in stage 10.

 

This leaves Degenkolb with very few opportunities. Of course there will be a sprint in Madrid but apart from that, the stages will be very hard to control. The third week doesn’t offer much for the GC riders but it doesn’t have any really flat stages either. Hence, Degenkolb can probably only hope for a sprint in tomorrow’s stage if he doesn’t want to gamble everything on Madrid.

 

However, it will be very hard to control the ride to Tarazona. Today’s stage again underlined that the sprint teams are always on the back foot in the second half of a grand tour. The second half was almost completely flat but even though Lampre-Merida, Trek and Giant-Alpecin were all fully committed to a sprint, they had to receive help from BMC in the finale to make it back together for a sprint. Tomorrow’s stage is a lot more complicated. If the sprint teams nearly missed out today, they will have no chance tomorrow.

 

Furthermore, many fast guys will be unsure about their ability to survive. The final climb is relatively easy and it should be manageable for most. However, it comes at the end of what has already been a hilly and probably very fast stage. Hence, many sprint teams will be a bit reluctant to go all in for a sprint, knowing that their fast riders may get dropped in the end. Hence, many will try to put riders in the break just like MTN-Qhubeka and LottoNL-Jumbo did today where their tactics left two less teams to do the dirty work in the peloton.

 

There is no doubt that Giant-Alpecin would love to have a sprint as the stage suits Degenkolb extremely well. It is a real power sprint with a bit of uphill in the finale and it comes at the end of a hard day which usually favours Degenkolb. However, sports director Christian Guiberteau already expressed some reluctance about doing the work in today’s stage so if they don’t get any help, they will probably call it a day and focus their energy on Tom Dumoulin who goes into three very important mountain stages.

 

Finally, the break is likely to be very strong. The first 70km are pretty tough as they are mostly uphill. Many strong riders preferred to save energy today as they knew that tomorrow’s stage will be a much better chance so we can expect real fireworks in the first part of the stage. It will take a long time for the break to get formed and at this point in a grand tour, the strongest riders usually just ride away in this kind of hard terrain.

 

When the break has been formed, the composition will be very important. If teams like Giant-Alpecin, Trek, BMC, LottoNL-Jumbo and Lampre-Merida have missed the move, they may start to chase. However, we don’t expect Giant-Alpecin to get much help so they will probably call it a day at some point and then it will be left to Astana to ride steadily on the front in the final part of the stage. Hence, we put our money on a breakaway to make it to the finish.

 

The tough start means that you need to be a very strong rider to join the break. With a climb in the finale, there is a late chance to make a difference for the best riders but the final part of the stage is mainly descending. Hence, the winner is likely to be a solid climber with a fast sprint and plenty of power in lumpy terrain.

 

We have already pointed to Jose Goncalves as our favourite once and we will again put the Portuguese on top of our list of favourites. The Caja Rural rider is enjoying a breakthrough season and has been extremely strong in this race. He has been up there with the best in the puncheur finales and yesterday he proved his strength when he bridged the gap to the breakaway that had initially gone clear. He is not made for the big mountains so he put himself in service of Omar Fraile but he was clearly riding really well.

 

This terrain is much better for Goncalves who is clearly one of the strongest riders at the moment. More importantly, he is very fast in a sprint and a strong on the flats. No one will be able to drop him on the final climb and if he can keep things together for a sprint from a breakaway, he will be hard to beat. Even if it comes down to a bunch sprint, he may take his chance, giving him more than one opportunity to win the stage.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have had a hugely successful race but they are not done yet. In addition to supporting Esteban Chaves, they will be riding for stage wins as they proved in today’s stage. Daryl Impey was second in the sprint and this was just another confirmation of the fact that the South African has found his best form after he crashed out of the Tour.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for Impey who is very strong in this kind of terrain. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint as he proved in today’s stage, especially when it comes at the end of a hard stage. With his good skills on the flats, he has all the skills to join tomorrow’s break and if he makes it, he will be very hard to beat. Furthermore, he is likely to contest a reduced bunch sprint and so he has more than one chance to win the stage.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo have already won a stage with Peter Sagan and are now focused on Rafal Majka. However, they have also proved that they are keen to join the breaks and tomorrow will be a good chance for some of their domestiques. Jay McCarthy has clearly stepped up his level in 2015, most remarkable in the Tours of California and Turkey. In this race, he is riding very well too as he managed to stay with Rafal Majka for a long time in the queen stage. He is strong in hilly terrain and has a fast sprint which makes him perfectly suited to this kind of stage.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have numerous options for this stage. In addition to Impey, they have an in-form Jens Keukeleire at their disposal. The Belgian is strong in this kind of terrain and has been climbing really well in this race. There is a chance that the stage has a bit too much climbing to suit him perfectly but he should be able to handle the challenges. Furthermore, he has the fast sprint that is needed to finish it off.

 

The same goes for his teammate Simon Gerrans. The Australian is building condition for the World Championships but it is evident that he is still far from his best form. He hasn’t done much in this race yet but on paper this stage suits him very well. The climbs should not be too hard for him and it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat in a sprint from a breakaway. The main question is whether his form is good enough to go for the win.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is no longer a podium candidate so Ag2r will be in desperate search for a stage win. Today they tried with Alexis Gougeard and tomorrow it should be a day for some of their climbers. Matteo Montaguti showed his good condition in the queen stage where he rode in the breakaway and played a key role for his captain later in the stage. He is very good at joining the right break and is fast in a sprint.

 

Caja Rural have more cards to play. One of them is Pello Bilbao who has already been second in a sprint. The Basque was very strong in the first part of the race but seems to be a bit tired. However, this stage suits him really well as it has the right mix of climbing and a flat finish that allows him to benefit from his fast sprint.

 

If it comes down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is obviously the man to beat. He may have come up short but the sprint in stage 10 proved that he is clearly the fastest rider in the bunch. The climbs won’t be too hard for him and he will only benefit from the toughness of the stage. The main issue will again be the lead-out as Giant-Alpecin are likely to use most of their resources to bring it back together for a sprint. However, if he has just one of Koen De Kort and Luka Mezgec left for the lead-out, he should finally be able to start his sprint from a good position.

 

Movistar’s overall ambitions have been dealt a blow so they will probably try to join the break. Jose Joaquin Rojas and Giovanni Visconti are both in great condition and suited to this kind of stage. They are fast in a sprint and strong in hilly terrain. Furthermore, Rojas will be one of the most dangerous contenders in a bunch sprint.

 

Sky have had to change their focus and even though they will still work for Mikel Nieve, they will also be chasing stage wins. This could open the door for Salvatore Puccio and Geraint Thomas. The Italian seems to be in the form of his life, is strong in this terrain and has a fast sprint. Thomas is clearly getting better and he would love to test his condition for the World Championships by going on the attack.

 

Etixx-QuickStep are desperately hunting for a stage win and they have numerous cards to play. For this stage, theit best candidate could be Pieter Serry who is both fast and a very good climber. Niki Terpstra may also take his chance as he is clearly riding really well. He is also relatively fast but the climbing may be a bit too tough for him.

 

Tosh van der Sande claims to be in the form of his life and his results prove him correct. He has been up there in the sprints and climbing really well. Usually, he is not fast enough to win a reduced sprint but his recent results prove that he has a chance. However, his best opportunity will probably be to join a break and he seems to have the form to make it happen.

 

Strong riders like Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas De Gendt, Adam Hansen, Ruben Plaza and Stephen Cummings also deserve a mention as they know how to hit the right break. However, only Chavanel is really fast in a sprint so most of them will have to make a late move to win the stage.

 

Finally, Danny van Poppel, Kristian Sbaragli and Jempy Drucker will take their chance if it comes down to a sprint. There is a chance that the terrain will be too hard for the former but he seems to be riding very well at the moment and if he makes it, only Degenkolb will be faster than him. Sbaragli and Drucker should make the selection and they have both proved to have the speed to be up there. If Degenkolb is again poorly positioned, they have a solid chance to win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Jose Goncalves (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Daryl Impey (sprint or breakaway),, Jay McCarthy (breakaway)

Outsiders: Jens Keukeleire (breakaway), Simon Gerrans (sprint or breakaway), Matteo Montaguti (breakaway), Pello Bilbao, John Degenkolb (sprint)

Jokers: Jose Joaquin Rojas (sprint or breakaway), Tosh van der Sande (sprint or breakaway), Danny van Poppel (sprint), Kristian Sbaragli (sprint),, Jemppy Drucker (sprint)

Breakaway jokers: Giovanni Visconti, Salvatore Puccio, Geraint Thomas, Pieter Serry, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas De Gendt, Adam Hansen, Ruben Plaza, Stephen Cummings