Joaquim Rodriguez proved that he is a serious contender for the overall victory in the Vuelta a Espana by reducing Fabio Aru’s advantage to just one second. Both climbers still need to gain more time on Tom Dumoulin before we get to the time trial and they now only have one real chance to do so: tomorrow’s brutally tough final stage in the mountain triptych.

 

The course

The organizers of the Vuelta a Espana have introduced a tradition of having a triptych of mountain stages at the end of the second week and very often they have had the hardest stage in the end. Furthermore, it has often been the queen stage even though a recent trend has seen the organizers design another very hard mountain stage on the penultimate day. Due to the extreme nature of stage 11, the final stage in the triptych cannot be regarded as the queen stage of this yearø’s edition but as there are no big mountain stages in the final week and it is the final mountaintop finish of the race, it will be even more important than usual as it offers the final big chance for the climbers to make a difference.

 

Unlike the previous mountain stages in Asturias, it is a day with numerous climbs as there will be no less than 7 categorized ascents on a day full of ups and downs. However, most of the climbs are relatively short and of the second and third category and only the final two climbs are real mountains. Hence, the first part of the stage is more of a lumpy classic before the serious climbing starts with the final two ascents which are both very steep.

 

The stage brings the riders over 185km from Luarca on the Asturian coast to a mountaintop finish on Alto Ermita de Alba. Right from the start, the riders will get into climbing mode as they will leave the coast immediately to go up the category 3 Alto de Aristebano (14.6km, 3.4%). It is more of a gradual uphill than a real climb but will definitely create a tough start of the race.

 

The climb is followed by a lumpy section with no flat roads at all before the riders get to the category 2 Alto de Piedratecha (10.6km, 4.8%). At the top, they will turn to the west in a rare flat section of the course before they tackle a long descent that leads to the bottom of the category 3 Alto de Cabrunana (4.8km, 6.7%). Another descent leads to a relatively flat section and the short, steep category 2 Alto del Tenebredo (3.7km, 8.9%). Then it’s the final section of flat roads before the final starts.

 

It kicks off at the bottom of the category 2 Alto del Cordal (8.5km, 5.7%) with 43.5km to go and from there, no room for recovery will be given. The descent leads to the intermediate sprint with 29km to go and then it is straight onto the well-known category 1 Alto de la Cobertoria (9.8km, 8.7%). It’s a very steep climb as the gradient stays between 10% and 13% from the third kilometre until it levels out for the final two kilometres.

 

The summit comes with just 18.5km to go. First it is a very difficult descent and then there is a very short valley section before the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Alto Ermita de Alba. At just 6.8km, it is pretty short but it has a brutal average gradient of 11.1%. The gradient only briefly drops below the 10% a few times but reaches an impressive 21.67% at the midpoint. The final two kilometres are slightly easier but there’s another section of 17% just after the flamme rouge, meaning that the damage can be done throughout the entire ascent. There are several hairpin turns on the climb. The final two of those come in quick succession with 700m to go and then it is a relatively straight road for the final 300m.

 

The Alto de Cordal and Alto de Cobertoria are Vuelta a Espana classics but the final climb has never been used before. It has not hosted a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

For once, the riders will get through the Asturian mountains without seeing a single raindrop. After two days with nice conditions, tomorrow will even be a pretty hot day. There will be beautiful sunshine and the temperature at the bottom of the final climb will even reach 25 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and then a cross-headwind. Then it will mainly be a cross-tailwind for the final part of the stage. Importantly, there will be a cross-tailwind on the Alto de la Cobertoria and the descent but there will be a headwind on the final climb.

 

The favourites

If anyone thought that the battle for the overall victory was a duel between Tom Dumoulin and Fabio Aru, Joaquim Rodriguez proved them wrong. Yesterday he claimed to have had bad legs and felt that he risked losing a lot of time. However, he turned things around in the steeper part and ended up gaining one second on Aru. Today he found himself in much better terrain and he proved that he is just getting stronger as the race goes on by claiming an emphatic solo win.

 

It was no big surprise that Rodriguez managed to claim the win. He may not have been at Fabio Aru’s level in the last few stages but the Alto de Sotres was simply tailor-made for him. With the first part being relatively easy, it all boiled down to the final very steep 3km and Rodriguez is usually unbeatable on this kind of ramps. Earlier in the stage he had a hard time against Alejandro Valverde and Esteban Chaves in these finales but as they are both fading, Rodriguez was finally able to capitalize on his explosiveness.

 

The win must have given Rodriguez confidence that he can finally achieve the grand tour win that has so far eluded him. He claims to be feeling better than ever in the Vuelta, even better than in 2012 when he nearly won the race. If that’s true, he won’t be easy to beat in tomorrow’s stage whose final climb is again made for him.

 

However, Rodriguez is running out of time. Tomorrow’s stage is the final summit finish of the race and he still faces a major obstacle on Wednesday where he will try to limit his losses on 38km of flat roads. The time trial is very similar to the one that cost him the win in 2010 and even though he has improved a lot since then, there is no doubt that he needs to gain time on Dumoulin before we get to the TT.

 

That makes tomorrow’s stage hugely important. Stage 20 could offer a chance to gain more time but it will definitely be risky business to count too much on time gains in the Madrid mountains. Tomorrow is the day to make the difference and the terrain to do serious damage is definitely there.

 

Overall stage 16 is not as tough as stage 11 but the final two climbs make the finale harder. Both are very steep and for the second time in this year’s race, the riders will face the brutally steep ramps that are the trademarks of the Vuelta. The riders also faced this kind of wall in stage 9 but this time the climb is much longer and the differences will be much bigger.

 

Furthermore, the stage offers constant climbing all day which makes it markedly different from today’s stage. This makes it an interesting combination between stages 11 and 15. It has the kind of steep ramp at the finish that makes it a perfect day for Rodriguez while the harder stage makes endurance more important which probably favours the likes of Aru and Nairo Quintana.

 

As we had predicted yesterday, Movistar chased all day in today’s stage but they were left unrewarded. That spelled the end for the early break which never had much of a chance. Tomorrow there should again be plenty of interest in controlling the race so it won’t be easy for the break to make it.

 

On the other hand, the first part of the stage is much harder and this will make it much more difficult to control things. In this kind of stage, a very strong group of climbers is likely to get clear – unlike today when most of the break was made up of strong rouleurs. The field is loaded with strong climbers that are out of GC contention and there is no doubt that they have marked this stage out as their big goal. Hence, we can expect another frantic and fast start to the race and it will probably take some time for the early break to get formed.

 

When the group has gone clear, it is likely to be a strong one so the teams with an interest in the stage win will have to hit the front very early. The next two days will be easy for the domestiques and as this is the final big climbing day, there is really no reason to hold anything back. Hence, several teams should be interested in bringing the break back.

 

First of all Rodriguez needs the bonus seconds if he wants to win the race. Today Katusha sports director Jose Azevedo said that the main goal was to gain time on Dumoulin and that stage wins had less priority. That’s certainly true but with bonus seconds on offer, it would be stupid of Katusha not to try to bring the race back together.

 

Fabio Aru still hasn’t won a stage and there is no doubt that he would like to do so. In the last few stages, Astana have been pretty conservative as they only have seven riders. Bringing the break back could be a problem as Rodriguez could be the one to take the bonus seconds. On the other hand, the stage suits Aru a lot more and he seemed to be pretty confident after today’s stage. We won’t be surprised if Astana go for the stage win.

 

There is no doubt that Movistar are not going to do all the work like they did today but if they can get some help from Katusha or Astana, they may lend a hand too. After all, Quintana is still focused on the podium so he needs to gain time and make the race hard. This stage suits him much better and it is his final real chance to take a stage victory.

 

Finally, Rafal Majka got close to the stage win in today’s stage. The Pole always has a lot of confidence even if he is up against some tough competition. He has never been afraid of asking his teammates to do the work so we won’t be surprised if Tinkoff-Saxo hit the front too.

 

This will make it hard for the break to stay away and things will only become more difficult on the penultimate climb. This is a brutally steep ascent and there is no doubt that Astana and Katusha want to distance Dumoulin already at this point. If the Dutchman loses ground here, he could potentially lose a lot of time. With the very steep nature of the climb, the peloton is likely to blow to pieces already here and it would be no surprise to see Dumoulin in difficult.

 

The final descent is very difficult and offers strong descenders a chance to make a difference. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez rarely miss such a chance so they are likely to try to get a head start before we get to the climb. Especially Valverde will be very keen to make a move here as he is clearly not able to follow the best on the climbs.

 

In the end, it will come down to a final battle between the best climbers. With his performance in today’s stage, it is hard not to put Rodriguez on top of the list of favourites. The final climb had the kind of steep gradients that are tailor-made for him and when he goes full gas on such a steep ascent, no one is usually able to keep up with him when he is at 100%.

 

However, Rodriguez faces a tougher battle in tomorrow’s stage. The final climb is much longer than today’s ascent and this makes it more about attrition and less about explosiveness. Furthermore, it comes at the end of a harder stage and this favours Rodriguez less. Hence, he is unlikely to be able to rely 100% on his brutal accelerations and it will be more of a steady climbing effort. Nonetheless, Rodriguez is the in-form climber at the moment and with those gradients, he is obviously the man to beat.

 

Today Nairo Quintana came up short but he was still very pleased with his feelings. He probably made a few mistakes in today’s stage that cost him a chance to go for the win. First of all he made a fruitless attack at the bottom of the final climb and later he tried to follow Rodriguez. He is not as explosive as the Spaniard so that was definitely a poor strategy. It would have been wiser to ride at his own pace and use a more steady approach to maybe get back to Rodriguez.

 

Tomorrow’s stage suits him much better as there are more climbs and the final climb is harder. It will be less about acceleration, especially if he can make it hard right from the bottom. He will probably attack early on the climb and the question is whether he will be able to hold his rivals off. His condition is growing as he continues to recover from illness so there is a big chance that he will win tomorrow’s stage.

 

Fabio Aru is clearly not as strong as he was earlier this week but he is still one of the best climbers. Like Quintana, he should benefit from the harder final climb and the tougher stage. That will make it more a race of attrition than explosiveness. However, he mostly has his eyes on the GC which probably cost him the chance to win today’s stage as he was forced to do all the work behind Rodriguez. Tomorrow his main goal will again be to gain time on Dumoulin and as there will be a headwind on the final climb, it could cost him the chance to win the stage if he spends too much time on the front.

 

Rafal Majka has confirmed that he has the potential to match the very best. Today he was able to stay with Aru throughout the entire climb and even had something left for a final acceleration to take second. This has definitely boosted his confidence and there is no doubt that he wants to win tomorrow’s stage. Like today, he can benefit from the big battle between Rodriguez, Aru and Dumoulin to spend less time in the wind and this could give him the freshness to make a difference in the end.

 

Mikel Nieve could create a surprise. The Basque has been climbing really well in this race and tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for him. Until now, explosiveness has been really important but tomorrow it will be more about attrition. That should suit Nieve who is always at his best on the really big mountain stages. It was no coincidence that he had a great ride in Andorra so tomorrow he may be able to match the best on the final climb.

 

On this kind of climb, it all comes down to the legs and as Mikel Landa and Daniel Moreno will mainly be riding in support of their captains, it is hard to imagine that the winner won’t be one of the five riders mentioned above. As said, a breakaway has a chance in this stage as a strong group of climbers is likely to get clear. Hence, the rest of our picks will all be potential attackers.

 

Today Rodolfo Torres was below his usual level. However, there is a big chance that he was just trying to save energy for tomorrow’s stage which is his best chance to win a stage. He has proved that he can be up there with the very best on the climbs but he has been unable to make it into the breaks until now. Tomorrow’s harder start should suit him well and if he joins the right move, he will be hard to beat on the final climb.

 

Frank Schleck went into this race with lofty GC ambitions but he crashed out of contention in stage 8. However, he has proved that he has the legs to follow the best on the climbs and he wants to capitalize on his good form. Today he finished far off the pace as he probably tried to save energy for tomorrow. Until now, the flat starts have made it impossible to join the breaks but tomorrow he will be ready to strike.

 

Bart De Clercq has done nothing to hide that he wants to join a breakaway in the final part of the race. He is aiming for GC and knows that he can gain time by hitting the right move. He has been set back by back problems but today he proved that he is back at his best level. Tomorrow is the kind of big climbing day that suits his steady riding style perfectly so he will be a tough man to beat if he joins the right break.

 

Joe Dombrowski has had a mixed race. On some days, he has been up there with the best while he has been off the pace in other stages. However, the condition is definitely there and as he proved in the Tour of Utah, he is very hard to follow on the hardest climbs. This stage is a good one for a pure climber like Dombrowski who impressed in the queen stage where he bounced back from a crash to nearly get to the final climb with the best.

 

Sky will be aiming for the break as they want to defend their lead in the teams classification. Nicolas Roche, Sergio Henao and Ian Boswell all have the climbing skills to do well in this kind of stage. The same goes for the Colombia pair of Alex Cano and Fabio Duarte whose condition is clearly on the rise. Finally, we will point to Kenny Elissonde, Fabrice Jeandesboz, Andre Cardoso, Romain Sicard and Stephane Rossetto who could all try to move up in the overall standings by joining the break in this stage,

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Fabio Aru

Outsiders: Rafal Majka, Mikel Nieve, Rodolfo Torres (breakaway), Frank Schleck (breakaway), Bart De Clercq (breakaway)

Jokers: Joe Dombrowski, Nicolas Roche, Sergio Henao, Ian Boswell, Alex Cano, Fabio Duarte, Nelson Oliveira, Kenny Elissonde, Fabrice Jeandesboz, Andre Cardoso, Romain Sicard, Stephane Rossetto (all from a breakaway)