It has become a tradition for the Vuelta a Espana to start with a short team time trial which has offered the chance for the GC riders to gain time already on the opening day. In 2015 the collective race against the clock will again kick the race off but after the race jury has decided to neutralize the time gaps, it could turn out to be a very strange affair.

The course

While the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France have had a mix of opening stages, with the Tour varying between prologues and road stages and the Giro using team time trials, prologues and road stages, the Vuelta a Espana seems to stick the format of kicking off their race with a team time trial. For the sixth year in a row, the Spanish grand tour will start with the collective discipline that is a perfect way to present the teams and their line-ups for the audience. The race last started with a prologue in 2009 when Fabian Cancellara won the opening time trial and the race hasn’t started with a road stage since 2007 when Daniele Bennati won a bunch sprint.

While they prefer to kick off their race with a team time trial, the Vuelta organizers usually try to make the opening stage rather short and it rarely has a big impact on the final general classification. It seems that the intention is to have a mostly ceremonial opening that is not intended to play a major role in the outcome of the race. In 2013 they slightly deviated from this pattern as the opening stage in Galicia was longer than usual but last year, the race kicked off with a very short 12.6km team time trial that created minimal differences. This year the trend is even more evident as the opening team time trial will be more of a team prologue over the distance of just 7.4km.

During the last few years, the race has mostly visited the same regions, with Andalucia and Galicia being especially keen on welcoming the race. The former region hosted the start of the race in both 2010 and 2014 and this year they have again managed to attract the big start of their national tour. This year it is the city of Marbella that will send the riders off as they will travel from the spectacular Puerto Banus to the tourist city on the Mediterranean coast.

The opening Vuelta team time trials have often been pretty technical but that’s definitely not the case for the 2015 opener. In fact, the course is made up of a completely flat run along the coastal road.  The riders will depart from Puerto Banus, one of the most emblematic places in the Spanish coastline, and then take a few turns before they get onto the long road that leads  to the finish. While there won’t be any technical challenges, the seafront promenade is narrow, so the public will be very close to the riders and this could turn out to be a difficulty for the riders on what is otherwise a very straightforward course.

The riders have had a chance to look at the course since they arrived in Marbella and this has created lots of polemics. A part of the race will be held on a narrow bike path that is partly covered with dirt and sand. Several riders have questioned their safety as they are set to ride at speeds of more than 50km/h on a surface where it will be hard to stay upright. Furthermore, the extremely narrow road will make it very hard to organize the team and pass each other. The safety concerns have prompted the Race Jury to neutralize the time gaps and so the stage won't count for GC.

In 2010, HTC-Highroad won the opening team time trial to put Mark Cavendish into the red leader’s jersey. In 2011, Leopard-Trek emerged as the strongest while Movistar was the fastest team in 2012. In 2013, Astana won the technical opening stage and Janez Brajkovic benefited from the win to become the first leader of the race. Last year it was again Movistar who came out on top on a short, technical course in Andalusia and like in 2012 it was Jonathan Castroviejo who was given the honour of crossing the line first.

The weather

Andalusia is known as one of the hottest parts of Europe at this time of the year and it has often welcomed the Vuelta with brutal heat. Last year the riders were riding in temperatures of more than 40 degrees on days when the authorities asked people to stay inactive due to the excessive heat.

With a start on the coast and in the evening, it won’t be too bad for the opening team time trial. Saturday is forecasted to be a sunny day with a temperature of around 28 degrees by the time the riders will roll down the start ramp. There will be virtually no risk of rain.

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which is likely to pick up a bit in the evening. This means that the riders will have a tailwind which should make it a very fast start. With increasing speeds, the wind may give the late starters a slight advantage.

The favourites

Team time trials in a grand tour are usually very prestigious affairs that are obvious targets for the teams that really specialize in the discipline. However, it has always been a bit different in the Vuelta. First of all the short distance means that the stage is unlikely to play a big role in determining the outcome of the race and secondly the mountainous course means that it makes no sense to line up a roster loaded with rouleurs as they will have little chance to make an impact later in the race. Finally, many specialists are focusing on the world championships TTT and the Vuelta is simply not the best preparation for that race.

This is clearly reflected in the start list. Looking down the teams, no one stands out as an obvious favourite as there is simply no team with several big rouleurs for this kind of flat power course. Furthermore, the very short distance means that it is not a typical team time trial as it could be more for sprint teams and lead-out trains who have the highest top speed. A 7.4km distance is almost just a sprint lead-out and this could open the door for some unusual teams to shine.

However, what will have the biggest impact on the race is the safety concerns and the decision to neutralize the times. Teams like Sky, Astana and Movistar won't take any unnecessary risks and the same goes for teams that have no chance to win the stage. This will significantly change the outcome of the stage which could be a very special and mainly ceremonial affair for many teams, with just a select few going all out for the victory. However, some teams can just send their GC riders out the back door and still go full gas for the win with their best time triallists.

On the other hand, a prestigious stage win is still up for grabs and an early victory in the books would make the race a success for most teams. With a relatively open field, several teams are likely to have big hopes for an opening win even though no one will take any unnecessary risks.

On this flat course, it will be all about power and the short distance means that speed will also have an impact. Time differences between the best teams in short team time trials are usually very small and on here it will be a matter of seconds. Over such a short distance, just a small mistake can cost the victory and this could open the door for an outsider. Very often the technical opening team time trials in the Vuelta have had some strange outcomes and again we can have a surprise on the opening day.

Orica-GreenEDGE are known as specialists in this discipline and they have won the TTTs in both the Giro and the Tour. They have never come out on top in the Vuelta as they have always had their specialists prepare specifically for the Worlds. That’s again the case for this year’s edition and so they don’t have their best team at the start.

However, they still have a pretty solid mix of speed and power. Damien Howson, Cameron Meyer and Daryl Impey are all real specialists while Simon Gerrans, Mathew Hayman, Mitchell Docker, Jens Keukeleire and Caleb Ewan have lots of speed. That makes it a rather complete team for this course. Furthermore, it is important not to underestimate their team time trialling culture. Last year they didn’t have a good team for the TTT but they still came away with third. Most of the riders in the team have been part of important team time trials in the past and that is extremely important in this very specific discipline. Furthermore, their main goal in the race is to win the stage so they are likely to go full gas despite the safety concerns. With no excellent teams at the start, Orica-GreenEDGE are our favourites even with a mediocre team.

One team that has the right mix of speed and power to do well on this course is Trek. The Americans go into this race with Fabian Cancellara, Markel Irizar and Riccardo Zoidl who are all great time triallists and they have a strong group of fast riders with the van Poppel brothers and Jasper Stuyven. Furthermore, Yaroslav Popovych is always strong in team time trials and Haimar Zubeldia is a decent time triallist too. Only Frank Schleck is not able to make much of a contribution but he could be the one to benefit the most as a win will get his GC campaign off to a flying start. That makes it probably the most well-rounded team in this field.

On the other hand, Trek have often looked very strong on paper but for some reason they have never had much success in team time trials. In the past, Cancellara was able to win TTTs almost on his own but since he joined the American team that has no longer been the case. This race marks his comeback since he crashed out of the Tour de France and he has openly admitted that he will suffer a lot in the first week. He is far from being at 100% and so he won’t be able to make his usual very strong contribution. He has rarely been very good when he returns after injury and this is a huge setback for their chances. On the other hand, he bounced back from illness with a strong performance in the Tour de Suisse prologue and he seems to always be able to deliver over such a short distance.

The main issue is their GC rider Frank Schleck. The Luxembourger has never been a fan of dangerous, risky racing and he won't take any unnecessary risks. However, with the time gaps being neutrlaized he doesn't have to stay with his teammates and can allow the more powerful riders to go for the win. With one of the most complete teams, Trek should be in contention.

BMC are the world champions in the discipline and won the TTTs in both the Tour and the Dauphiné. They would love to make it three in a row by winning their final race before their title defence in September and it definitely won’t be impossible. They don’t have their biggest specialists at the start though and they won’t be as strong as they were in the French races.

However, Tejay van Garderen, Joey Rosskopf, Peter Velits and Samuel Sanchez are all solid time triallists and Jempy Drucker is a very good prologue rider. Only Darwin Atapuma will be a weak link in what is generally a relatively completely line-up. Van Garderen and Velits were both part of last year’s winning team in Ponferrada and even though such a short TTT is obviously a different matter, they should be among the best. As the reigning world champions, they have a focus on this stage even though they won't take too many risks.

Giant-Alpecin were once known for coming in last in the team time trials but they have now improved massively. Already last year they were sixth in the opening TTT and this year they have a pretty similar team. With most of the roster made up of lead-out riders, they have the speed to do well on this course and they have been strengthened by Tom Dumoulin who is one of the best time triallists in the world. Unfortunately, he is still short of form as this is his first race since he crashed out of the Tour and that could make the difference between winning the stage and taking a place of honour. However, as they have never really been in contention for a stage win in a team time trial, they may prefer not to take too many risks, prefering to keep their powder dry for better opportunities later in the week.

Lotto Soudal usually don’t belong to the specialist teams in team time trials but on this course they should be able to do well. Kris Boecmans and Jasper de Buyst are fast riders who have the speed for this stage while Thoma De Gendt, Adam Hansen, Maxime Monfort and Jurgen Van den Broeck have time trialling power. As Bart De Clercq is also in great condition, they have a very homogeneous team with no really weak links and they could take their first ever victory in a team time trial here.

Tinkoff-Saxo have a few riders that won’t be able to contribute much but they also have some really powerful engines for such a short course. Daniele Bennati and Peter Sagan are both prologue specialists and Maciej Bodnar is a real TT specialists. Pavel Brutt and Sergio Paulinho have both done gone time triallists in the past and should be able to deliver a contribution. With a fast Jay McCarthy also in the team, the Russians can leave their climbers behind and go full gas in an attempt to win the stage.

Etixx-QuickStep are usually among the best in the team time trials but for this race they don’t have their biggest specialists. Nonetheless, they should still be among the best as they have strong time triallists like Niki Terpstra, Maxime Bouet and Pieter Serry and fast riders like Nikolas Maes and Iljo Keisse. They probably miss the big engine to win the stage but with no GC rider or big-name sprinter, they will probably go full gas in an event that is dear to their heart.

LottoNL-Jumbo have a strange team for this race. They have no GC rider and lots of heavy guys that won’t have much chance to make an impact on this race. None of them are real TT specialists though so it is not enough to win this stage. On the other hand, they have one of the best and most homogeneous teams for the flats and as they have no GC rider, they won't be too concerned by the safety risks.

IAM deserve a mention. The Swiss team rode an outstanding team time trial in the Tour and proved that they are now among the best in this discipline. However, they have a much different team for this race and probably have too many young riders with little power. On the other hand, they can still rely on specialists Sylvain Chavanel, Jerome Coppel and Larry Warbasse and this could bring them far.

Among the teams of the big favourites, Astana probably have the worst team but they still have powerful riders like Luis Leon Sanchez and Dario Cataldo. Vincenzo Nibali is no poor time triallist either and Fabio Aru has improved a lot. They crushed the opposition in the Burgos TTT so they have proved that they can do well in this discipline but for this race they probably have too many climbers to win. Most importantly, the neutralized time gaps mean that they are unlikely to go all out.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Orica-GreenEDGE

Other winner candidates: Trek, BMC

Outsiders: Giant-Alpecin, Lotto Soudal, Tinkoff-Saxo, Etixx-QuickStep

Jokers: LottoNL-Jumbo, IAM, Sky, Movistar, Astana