Tom Dumoulin benefited from the classics finale in Avila to double his advantage but it is unlikely to play any role by the time we get to the end of tomorrow’s final big mountain stage of the race. Four big category 1 climbs are on the menu and even though none of them are very steep, we can expect a huge battle for both the overall win and the podium in the Madrid mountains.

 

The course

Every year since 2012, the Vuelta a Espana has had a tough mountaintop finish on the penultimate day. In 2012, it was the Bola del Mundo that provided an exciting end to the race while Alto de Angliru was the decider in 2013. Last year we had a huge battle between Alberto Contador and Chris Froome on the Ancares ascent and in those three years the overall win has been up for grabs right until the penultimate stage.

 

This year the race returns to a more traditional format. The penultimate stage can definitely be characterized as a mountain stage as it takes place in the Madrid mountains that have so often shaped the final GC in the Spanish race. This time, however, there will be no mountaintop finish and this means that the stage is less likely to produce the same kind of differences that we have seen in the past. On the other hand, it is a big day of climbing with no less than four category 1 climbs and so the terrain is there to try to change things at this very late point in the race. Again it will be the Purto de Navacerrada climb that will have the final say in the race but this time the riders won’t climb all the way up to Bola del Mundo as they did in 2010 and 2012.

 

The stage brings the riders over 175.8km from San Lorenzo de El Escorial to Cercedilla. The start and finish are separated by just 17km of slightly ascending roads which the riders will cover right from the start. The final part of the stage is now made up of an out-and-back course, with a small circuit to be covered before the riders turn around and head back to the finish in Cercedilla.

 

This means that the riders will tackle the final part of the stage from the opposite direction right from the start and so they will go up the category 1 Puerto de Navacerrada already after 20.6km of racing. From this side, it is a 9.4km ascent that averages 6.6%. After a relatively easy start, the gradient stays around 8-9% for most of the time before it briefly reaches a maximum of 11.25% just before the top. Then there is a short flat section before the riders descend to the bottom of the category 1 Puerto de la Morcuera (11.5km, 5.4%). It’s a relatively regular climb with gradients of 6-8% until a short descent near the summit leads to the final 1.5km that have gradients of 4-6%.

 

The summit comes at the 67.5km mark and the riders will now descend to Miraflores de la Sierra where they will start a lap of a flat circuit that they will cover once. After 116.6km of racing, they are back at the same point and from here they will follow the same road back to the finish in Cercedilla.

 

This means that they will again tackle the category 1 Puerto de la Morcuera but now from the opposite side. It is now a 10.4km ascent with an average gradient of 6.6%. It is very regular with a gradient of 6-7% for most of the time, with a peak of 9.5% in the second half.

 

The summit comes with 48.8km to go and the final part of the stage starts with a descent to the intermediate sprint that is located 34.3km from the line. Then there’s a short flat section before the riders will ride back up the Puerto de Navacerrada, albeit from the other direction. From this side, it is known as the Puerto de Cotos and averages 5.4% over 11km. The first 4km are relatively easy and from there it is very regular at 6-7%, with a peak of 8.5% at the top.

 

The summit is located 17.8km from the finish and is followed by a short flat section. The final part of the stage consists of the descent that ends at the flamme rouge. It is not very technical, with most of he turns coming near the bottom. The riders will follow a winding, taking a sharp turn 3km from the finish. Then the road is again winding until they tale the final sharp turn with 220m to go. The final kilometre is slightly uphill at 3.3% for the first 780m and at 2.5% on the finishing straight.

 

Cercedilla has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

It’s been a dry edition of the Vuelta a Espana and that is not set to change in the final weekend. However, Saturday is forecasted to be a cloudy day and the sun is not expected to come through before we get to the finale. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 22 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part if the stage. There will be a crosswind on the second and third climb and a cross-headwind on the final climb and the descent as the wind is set to come from a westerly direction in the late afternoon. There will be a headwind in the final 3km.

 

The favourites

Fabio Aru quickly realized that today’s stage was not one for him and Astana never showed any sign of initiative. As the Italian had also gone down in a crash earlier in the stage, there was no reason to try anything in what would have been a futile move on a climb that was tailor-made for Dumoulin. Instead, it was the Dutchman who lived up to our prediction from yesterday by using the cobbled wall in Avila to gain a few seconds.

 

Dumoulin may have doubled his advantage but the result was more important from a psychological point of view as the extra seconds will mean nothing in the end. Either Dumoulin will be able to stay with Aru in tomorrow’s stage or he will be dropped. Hence, it doesn’t make any difference whether the gap is 3 or 6 seconds.

 

Aru looked vulnerable in today’s stage where he seemed to suffer in the stiff crosswind on the final descent. However, he proved his impressive fighting spirit on the final cobbled climb to limit his losses impressively. In fact he didn’t even lose any ground in the flat final kilometre where Dumoulin would usually be a lot stronger.

 

There is no doubt that Aru is still riding extremely well but it is hard not to be left with the impression that Dumoulin is the strongest rider. Yesterday he always looked comfortable, even when Aru went full gas on the final climb and afterwards he even claimed not to have been under pressure. However, Aru is not giving up and has set an optimistic tone while his sports directors seem to be a lot more pessimistic.

 

Astana sports director Stefano Zanini has said that they have to make Dumoulin crack by virtue of their collective strength. Astana are clearly the best team in this race – they had four riders in the small main group after the final climb today – but it is still hard to see how they will use that to put Dumoulin under pressure. He just has to stay on Aru’s wheel and doesn’t really have to bother too much about the other riders.

 

However, there are lots of teams that have shown that they have not given up yet. Movistar clearly have big plans and an in-form Rafal Majka still eyes the podium. Rodriguez seems to be prepared to risk it all and that will make things complicated for Dumoulin. After all, he can’t allow his rivals to get too much of an advantage.

 

The main problem for Dumoulin is that he is likely to be isolated pretty early. Today John Degenkolb and Lawson Craddock delivered an impressive performance but tomorrow the climbing must be too tough for the German. Craddock has been very inconsistent and if he is on a bad day like yesterday, Dumoulin could find himself on his own.

 

However, he will definitely get allies. Everybody will try to defend what they have. This was evident in today’s stage where Pawel Poljanski chased down Alejandro Valverde. Tomorrow we will probably have the same scenario so the lack of team support probably won’t be too much of an issue.

 

We are curious to see how Astana approach the stage. They will definitely try to put riders up the road as Aru will need assistance if he manages to drop Dumoulin. The same goes for Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo so it will be a big battle on the first climb where attacks will be flying. At the same time, riders like Bart De Clercq, Romain Sicard, Fabrice Jeandesboz, Gianluca Brambilla and Kenny Elissonde will try to move up in the GC by going on the attack.

 

Giant-Alpecin won’t be able to prevent the strong Astana and Movistar climbs from escaping so they just hope to make the race calm down as soon as possible. We expect a very strong group of climbers to go clear on the first climb and then things will calm down a bit. However, Movistar and Astana want to make the race as hard as possible so we expect them to start to chase pretty early and they will probably go full gas already on the penultimate climb where they hope to isolate Dumoulin. As Movistar have two cards to play, we won’t be surprised if Valverde and Quintana try a long-distance attack already at this point. This could force Tinkoff-Saxo and Katusha on the defensive and Astana will also be keen to ride fast which will make it hard to make a difference.

 

We don’t expect Aru to attack before we get to the final climb. He will regret the fact that there will be a headwind which will make it much harder for him to make a difference. Furthermore, the final climb is the easiest and never gets very steep. It will be very hard for anyone to drop Dumoulin on these gradients.

 

On paper, the longer climbs should suit Aru better than Dumoulin. Despite his skills as a classics rider, Dumoulin has been at his best on the days with numerous climbs. He is simply very strong at the end of the hardest races so even though Astana will try to do their utmost to make it hard, we don’t expect Dumoulin to crack. He just has to glue himself to Aru’s wheel. On these climbs, he is currently the strongest so we expect him to win the Vuelta.

 

However, there’s still a prestigious stage win up for grabs. The battle for the GC will probably make it a fast day so it will be hard for the early break to stay away. We expect it to be a day for the GC riders who will fight it out on the final climb.

 

As we don’t expect Aru to be able to drop Dumoulin, it will probably be a very tactical battle with lots of stop-and-go racing like we had in yesterday’s stage. That will make it very hard for Aru to win the stage as he needs to drop Dumoulin to do so. Instead, we could see a brave attack from another GC rider who exploits the battle between the main riders.

 

However, our favourite is Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard is not in his best condition but one can only admire his aggression at a time where he is not at his best. He is unlikely to be able to follow Aru’s attacks in the finale but with a bit of a regrouping he will come into play. He will definitely try to attack and with his excellent descending skills, there is a solid chance that he will be part of a successful move in the finale.

 

Even if he misses out, he will have Nairo Quintana at his side. If Movistar realize that the podium is beyond their reach, they will turn their attention to the stage win. With Quintana to work for him, a sprint finish from a small group is a likely scenario and here Valverde is the obvious favourite. As he can win from several scenarios, he is our stage winner pick.

 

Like Aru, there is no doubt that Nairo Quintana will attack on the climb and he will have a lot more freedom. Neither Aru nor Dumoulin will be too concerned with the Colombian but he will be closely marked by Rafal Majka and Joaquim Rodriguez. However, we won’t rule out that Quintana will be able to drop his rivals. The Colombian is clearly approaching his best condition – he simply did the time trial of his life – and the rest day seems to have served him well. He has the descending skills to stay away on the final descent and gives Movistar another excellent card to play. An in-form Quintana could easily turn out to be the strongest on the climbs.

 

Tom Dumoulin is mainly concerned with the overall win but it won’t be impossible for him to win the stage. He is very fast in a sprint so if a small group arrives at the finish, he would love to top it all with a third stage victory. It won’t be easy to beat Valverde but it won’t be impossible either. Furthermore, he will be ready to attack if he senses some kind of weakness from Aru. He did so yesterday and actually we won’t be surprised if he rides away to a solo win.

 

Rafal Majka did a poor time trial but has looked very strong on the climbs in the last few stages. The Pole is still aiming for the podium and he will ride aggressively tomorrow. Of course he will be closely marked by Joaquim Rodriguez but the Spaniard has not been at his best since the rest day. Majka briefly managed to drop his yesterday on a similar climb and we won’t be surprised if he does so again. Dumoulin and Aru won’t be too concerned and it would be no surprise if both he and Quintana manage to escape in the finale. In that case, they will combine forces to gain time on Rodriguez and the Pole will be the fastest in the sprint.

 

Mikel Nieve has been one of the best climbers in this race but he lost a lot of ground in the time trial. Hence, he is no longer a podium contender and this will give him lots of freedom in the finale. Already yesterday, only Moreno was keen to chase him down when he attacked while the rest of the GC riders didn’t care. Nieve is very strong on these days of attrition while the less steep climbs don’t really suit Moreno. In a close battle for the podium, Nieve may be the one to escape in the finale.

 

The same goes for Domenico Pozzovivo and Louis Meintjes. They will mark each other closely but the rest of the GC riders don’t care about them. Today Pozzovivo showed signs of progress and at his best he is an excellent climber. Those two riders could be the ones to make a difference in the end.

 

Valverde won’t have much competition in a sprint from a reduced group but apart from Dumoulin, there is another GC rider that will be able to challenge him. Daniel Moreno is riding strongly in this race and even though tomorrow’s long regular climbs don’t suit him, there is a big chance that he will be there if it comes down to a sprint. On paper, Valverde is the fastest but he will be ready to strike.

 

Of course we can’t rule out wins for Fabio Aru and Joaquim Rodriguez. Until now they have been the best climbers in this race so there is a chance that they will turn out to be better than the rest. Both have the potential to ride away with a solo win but they could also combine forces to try to distance the rest. In that case, Aru would be the overall winner and Rodriguez would be allowed to win a stage. The Spaniard will also have a chance in a sprint finish if they manage to drop Valverde.

 

There is a chance that a breakaway will make it. With such a tough start, a strong group of climbers is likely to get clear and it won’t be easy to bring them back in this hard terrain. However, you need to be a very good climber to finish it off. One of the in-form riders is Bart De Clercq. He was already on the attack yesterday and has done nothing to hide that he wants to join a break again. This kind of stage with numerous climbs that are never steep, is tailor-made for him. We expect him to be in the break and is our favourite to win the stage if the escape makes it.

 

Rodolfo Torres and Frank Schleck battled for the win in stage 16. Both are among the best climbers in this race and are still riding strongly. With a hard start, there is a good chance that they will make the break and they are definitely strong enough to finish it off. The same goes for Fabrice Jeandesboz who is likely to try to move up in the overall standings by going on the attack, and Nicolas Roche, Ian Boswell and Sergio Henao.

 

Finally, we will point to Mikel Landa, Diego Rosa and Giovanni Visconti. They are all likely to join the break as part of the team tactics but they could be given the room to go for the stage win if their help isn’t needed.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Tom Dumoulin

Outsiders: Rafal Majka, Mikel Nieve, Domenico Pozzovivo, Louis Meintjes, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Fabio Aru

Jokers: Bart De Clercq, Rodolfo Torres, Frank Schleck, Fabrice Jeandesboz, Nicolas Roche, Ian Boswell, Sergio Henao, Mikel Landa, Diego Rosa, Giovanni Visconti (all from a breakaway)