Esteban Chaves confirmed his huge potential on a day when a relatively easy climb gave more answers than expected. The GC riders will now take a back step for a few days as the sprinters and classics riders prepare themselves for a few days in the spotlight, starting with tomorrow’s third stage which should give the fast riders a rare chance to shine.

 

The course

In the last few years, the Vuelta organizers have significantly reduced the number of sprint finishes and nowadays the fast finishers don’t have many opportunities in the last grand tour of the season. This has prompted many of the sprinters to skip the Spanish race which has given more room for young sprinters who are brave enough to spend three weeks on the Iberian Peninsula and there is no doubt that the sprint field in Spain is less stacked than the one we saw in both the Tour and the Giro.

 

The Vuelta is now loaded with summit finishes and the stages with flat finales are often pretty hilly with a climb located near the finish. However, the race always has at least a few completely flat stages and after two days of patience, the sprinters will get their chance in one of them on the third day of the race.  It’s a little later than last year when the first sprint stage came on the second day but a lot earlier than in 2013 when stage 5 offered them their first chance to shine.

 

The stage is another short one as it brings the riders over just 158.4km from Mijas to the tourist city of Malaga. For the start, the riders are back at the Mediterranean coast and from there they will head north into the hilly terrain that will provide a stern test in the first part of the race. The category 3 Alto de Mijas (6km, 7.1%) is a tough challenge already after 14km of racing but it is followed by a descending and flat part that leads the riders to the east and back to the coast where they will reach Malaga after 57.8km of racing.

 

Instead of going straight to the finish, the organizers want to test the sprinters. The peloton will head back into the hills to go up the first category 1 climb of the race, Purto del Leon (16km, 5.2%). It is a relatively regular climb with gradients between 5% and 7% before the riders reach a short 15% section at the 10km mark. Then there’s another steeper section before it levels out near the top. The summit is located 82.4km from the finish and is followed by a rolling part before the riders get to the real descent that leads to the city of Benamargosa.

 

The final 53.7km are completely flat and first lead back to the coast with 37.4km to go where the intermediate sprint is located. From there the riders will follow the coastal road back to Malaga. However, instead of following the flat road all the way to the finish, the riders will head inlands to go up a small climb with around 10km to go. It’s 3km uphill with a gradient of 3-5% and then a short descent beforethere are 1500m of ascending roads where the gradient is mostly around 7% with peaks of 15%. Then they will take a fast descent before they get to the final 5km which are completely flat.

 

The finale is not technically complicated. The riders will leave the main road with 6km to go and then there are three turns in quick succession between the 4km and 3km to go mark. A long road leads two a 90-degree turn and a sweeping bend just before the flamme rouge from where the road is straight and flat.

 

Malaga last hosted a stage finish in 2010 when the stage on a short steep climb in the city and this allowed Philippe Gilbert to ride himself into the red jersey by winning the stage. In 2006, Team CSC won the opening team time trial to put Carlos Sastre into the leader’s jersey and in 2004 it was Alessandro Petacchi who won a bunch sprint. Mario Cipollini won another bunch kick in 2002 while Alex Zülle was the fastest in the opening time trial in 2000. Furthermore, Malaga has often hosted stages of the Vuelta a Andalucia, most recently in 2010 when Alex Rasmussen won a short, flat time trial in the city.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first part of the race may not have been as hot as last year but it doesn’t change the fact that the Andalusian heat is a big factor in the race. Monday will leave no room to recover from the first few days as it will be another sunny day with a maximum temperature in Malaga of 32 degrees. There is virtually no risk of rain.

 

Many riders will fear the wind in this stage but it should not be a major challenge. There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that there will be a crosswind in the first part of the stage before the riders turn into a tailwind as they approach Malaga. There will be a crosswind on the main climb and a tailwind on the descent. In the final part along the coast, there will be a headwind. With 4km to go, the riders will turn into a crosswinds while there will be a tailwind for the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

The first real stage of the race was always going to provide us with the first answers about the condition of the main contenders but few would have expected it to create the differences that we saw on the roads leading to Caminito del Rey. Esteban Chaves continued his impressive comeback from his horrific injury by claiming his first grand tour stage win and now looms as a strong contender for the overall standings. However, last year he was also riding very strongly in the first week before he cracked in the second half and it remains to be seen whether the mega talent has what it takes to ride consistently for three weeks.

 

In the battle among the biggest favourites, Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez were the winners. However, the Colombian showed clear signs of weakness as he was unable to keep up with the front trio. With all due respect to a big talent like Tom Dumoulin, it must definitely be worrying for Quintana that he was unable to keep up with such a big guy on that kind of climb. As opposed to this, Rodriguez must be very pleased to have been able to distance the rest in the finale.

 

Chris Froome rode his usual consistent pace up the climb and limited his losses well but it is clear that he was not bluffing when he claimed not to be at his Tour de France level. At the same time, Astana were dealt a big blow. Aru was unable to keep up with the best in the finale which was a bit of a surprise while it was more expected that Landa is still not at his best. However, the big loser was obviously Vincenzo Nibali whose impressive chase effort cost him a lot of time.

 

There will be time to lick the wounds as we now head into easier terrain for the next few stages and it will be all about staying safe until we get to the next uphill finish in stage 6. The next three stages are for the sprinters and the puncheurs and should do little to change the overall standings. Dumoulin will be looking for bonus seconds to see if he can get into red but if he fails in that mission, Chaves will stay in the lead for several days.

 

The sprinters don’t have many opportunities in this race and they have to make the most of it whenever there’s a flat finish. Tomorrow offers them their first chance and they will be keen to give it a first shot. While Giant-Alpecin and Cofidis will be ready for their first big goal in the race, the third team which is mainly here for the sprints, is already out of the battle after IAM lost Matteo Pelucchi to a crash.

 

Today it took a long time for the early break to be formed which was no surprise as the lack of a race leader and the hilly terrain meant that an escape had a small chance. Tomorrow there will be no big hopes for the early attackers and so the start should be a lot less animated. We can expect the break to go clear almost straight from the gun.

 

The main incentive is the fact that the mountains jersey will be up for grabs and that’s a big chance for Caja Rural and Colombia who will both be chasing the win in that competition. It will be a huge surprise if they miss the move and they are likely to bring it back together if they have initially missed out. LottoNL-Jumbo, Lampre-Merida, FDJ and MTN-Qhubeka are also likely to be part of the action

 

When the group has gone clear, Orica-GreenEDGE will hit the front. They have a dual mission in this stage as they both want to protect Chaves’ lead and take the win with Caleb Ewan. Hence, we can expect them to do quite a bit of work and it will probably be up to Cameron Meyer to spend a long time on the front.

 

With a sprint finish on the cards, Giant-Alpecin and Cofidis will lend come to the fore very early. Tom Stamsnijder and Yoann Bagot will probably be given the task to set the pace and make sure that the break doesn’t get too much of an advantage. As they can’t allow themselves to go fast up the climbs, the gap will probably not be very big. If LottoNL-Jumbo have missed the break, they may also do some work as the sprints are their best chance to win a stage.

 

The final part of the stage takes place along the coast but as it will be a headwind, the peloton should not be very nervous. Of course everybody still wants to be near the front but as there is no real chance that things will split, we will hopefully not get any crashes.

 

In theory, the two big climbs should offer a chance to make things hard for the pure sprinters but they come too early and so they are unlikely to be raced at a fast pace. Instead, it is the late bump in the finale that could provide some action. Like many other uncategorized climbs in Spain, it is pretty hard and it could easily be too much for several fast guys. It would be no surprise to see Tinkoff-Saxo try to make things tough to make it easier for Sagan in the finale.

 

The climb is also a perfect springboard for a late attack but as it will mainly be a headwind or a crosswind in the finale, it won’t be easy to stay away. Furthermore, there are no real technical challenges so the peloton can ride a lot faster and so we should get a sprint finish. The finale is not very technical and as the finishing straight is more than 1km long and offers a tailwind sprint, this is a perfect finale for the power sprinters, with positioning and acceleration being less important.

 

Last year the sprint stages in the Vuelta turned out to be a battle between John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni who shared the sprint wins between them until the Frenchman left the race. This year those two riders are again the big-name sprinters in the race and are set to battle for the victories in the fast finales. Both have the climbing skills that are needed to do well in the Spanish sprints which often have late climbs to take out the sting of the legs and possibly drop the pure sprinters. Peter Sagan looms as a strong dark horse that can threaten the two main sprinters but the Slovakian is usually not as fast as those two riders.

 

Giant-Alpecin and Cofidis are the only two teams that are mainly here for the sprint stages and they have assembled very strong teams to support their fast riders who will have made this stage their first big target. Alongside Tinkoff-Saxo and Trek who also have some pretty strong trains, those two teams are set to dominate the finale in tomorrow’s first sprint battle.

 

Last year Nacer Bouhanni was leading the internal battle against Degenkolb when he was forced to leave the race, having won two of the three sprint stages in the first half of the race. Back then, the Frenchman was a tiny bit faster than the German who was stronger on the climbs and benefited from the harder stages. This year things have been more complicated for Bouhanni who never reached his best condition in the first part of the year until he finally broke his drought in Circuit Cycliste Sarthe. He was even up against Degenkolb in the Bayern Rundfahrt where he came up short against the German and Sam Bennett.

 

However, Bouhanni returned to form for the Dauphiné where he won two stages and he was climbing excellently in the French championships until he crashed in the finale. That made it impossible for him to shine in the first week of the Tour de France and when he went down in another tumble and left the race, we never got the chance to see what he could do against the big-name sprinters in the Tour.

 

However, Bouhanni’s injuries were not too serious and by winning the Circuit de Getxo which is a pretty hard race, and the two sprint stages in the Tour de l’Ain, he has proved that his form is still very good. He can rely on a very strong train with Domonique Rollin, Julien Simon, Cyril Lemoine and final lead-out man Geoffrey Soupe. They are probably not at the same level as Giant-Alpecin but they should be able to get Bouhanni up there and the Frenchman is excellent at positioning himself. Bouhanni would definitely have preferred a more technical finale as this power tailwind sprint is more for Degenkolb.

 

The main concern is the fact that Bouahnni crashed in today’s stage. However, he seemed to be relatively unhurt and just rolled slowly to the finish. Cofidis have not announced anything about his condition but we will be pretty surprised if he is not ready to sprint. The Frenchman has proved that he is faster than his German rival and so he is our favourite to win.

 

However, it won’t be easy to beat Degenkolb. The German could not have designed a better sprint than this one. A long finishing straight with a tailwind is perfect for a power sprinter like him and he probably has the best lead-out in the race. Koen De Kort has proved that he is one of the best lead-out men in the world and with fast riders like Zico Waeytens and Luka Mezgec and the extreme power of Dumoulin also there, he has the best team at his side.

 

In the past, Degenkolb has had a hard time staying with his teammates and this has often been costly in the sprints. However, the late climb is likely to have whittled the peloton a bit down and with the lack of technical challenges, he will have an easier time. There is a big chance that he will be delivered on the front and then it takes a very good sprinter to beat him.

 

One of those fast riders is Caleb Ewan. The Australian is making his grand tour debut and is one of the biggest talents on the cycling scene. With Pelucchi out of the race, he may be the fastest rider when it comes to pure speed as he proved when he nearly beat Kittel in the Tour de Pologne. He only plans to do 7-10 days of this race and so this is one of his biggest chances to win a stage.

 

Ewan is not only a great sprinter, he also climbs really well. Hence, he should be able to survive the late bump and he has an excellent team to support him. Simon Gerrans, Mitchell Docker, Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeleire are all very fast and they are probably the only team with the firepower to potentially beat Giant-Alpecin. Ewan has proved that he is good at keeping position and with his impressive speed, he could win his first ever grand tour sprint.

 

Peter Sagan is back in the Vuelta and he seems to be riding a lot better than he did 12 months ago when he delivered his worst performance ever in a bike race. He will have lots of chances in a race that is loaded with stages for him and this one is the first opportunity. However, the final sprint is probably a bit too much about power to suit him well and he is usually not as fast as Degenkolb and Bouhanni.

 

On the other hand, he has a very strong team at his side. Daniele Bennati, Pavel Brutt and Maciej Bodnar are all powerful riders and Bennati has the speed to keep him up there. They are unlikely to dominate the finale but they should be able to make sure that Sagan will start his sprint from a good position. In the Tour, his speed was not too far off the mark of the fastest riders so Degenkolb, Bouhanni and Ewan have to do things right to beat him.

 

Trek got the race off to a bad start as a mechanical cost Frank Schleck time in today’s stage. However, they have a chance to bounce back in tomorrow’s stage which is the first opportunity for Danny van Poppel. The Dutchman has really stepped up his level massively in the last few months, most notably by winning a tough stage in the Tour de Wallonie where he dropped Philippe Gilbert on the Mur de Thuin. Most recently, he sprinted to second in the first stage of the Eneco Tour.

 

Van Poppel is not as fast as the best sprinters but he has a great team to support him. Jasper Stuyven and final lead-out man Boy van Poppel are both fast and Fabian Cancellara has lots of power. The late climb could be an issue though. On paper, it should not be too hard for him but he is usually climbing very inconsistently. On a bad day he may get dropped.

 

Kris Boeckmans has had a remarkable 2015 season and after the disappointment of not getting selected for the Tour, he is now the lead sprinter in the Vuelta. With Tosh van der Sande, Adam Hansen and Jasper de Buyst for the lead-out, he has a good team at his side. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest riders in the peloton but the final climb could be a bit too long and hard for him.

 

Tom Van Asbroeck is getting his first taste of a grand tour. He had a tough time in the WorldTour races in the early part of the season but he showed great improvement in the Tour de Pologne where he was one of the select sprinters to survive the climbs on stage four. LottoNL-Jumbo are here for the sprints and have lots of firepower for the flats so he should get lots of support. He is usually great at positioning himself and even though he is not the fastest rider, he will have opportunities.

 

Jempy Drucker is not a pure sprinter but in the Eneco Tour he proved that he has the positioning skills to mix it up in the bunch sprints. With his win in the RideLondon Classic, he showed his good condition and he is one of the sprinters who should survive the climbs. He has Marcus Burghardt for the lead-out and if the German can do what Manuel Quinziato did in the Eneco Tour, Drucker could make another top performance even though he is probably not fast enough to win.

 

Maximilano Richee was agonizingly close to a stage win in this race two years ago. Now he is back and hopes to make amends as he gets a rare chance to ride for himself instead of leading Sacha Modolo out. He has lots of experience and knows how to position himself. Unfortunately, he will be pretty isolated in the finale and this will cost some energy that may make it impossible for him to win.

 

MTN-Qhubeka are here with two fast riders and Youcef Reguigui and Kristian Sbaragli will probably both get their chances. Both are pretty good climbers who should be able to survive the climbs and they excel in tough races. On paper, Sbaragli is the fastest and he will have a good team to support him in the finale. He may not be fast enough to win a flat sprint but he should be able to do well.

 

FDJ are giving a chance to young neo-pro Lorrenzo Manzin who recently rode very well in the Tour de Pologne. In that race, he proved that he climbs pretty well but it remains to be seen whether he can handle the higher level in the Vuelta. Kevin Reza, Murilo Fischer, Mickael Delage and Oliver Le Gac are fast riders so he actually has one of the best teams at his disposal.

 

Movistar are mainly here for the GC but Jose Joaquin Rojas should get his usual chance to test himself in the sprints. He almost always makes it into the top 10 but he never wins. He is great at positioning himself but with a lack of team support and speed, it will be hard for him to turn his fortunes around in a stage that is a bit too easy.

 

Etixx-QuickStep are here without their big sprinters and this opens the door for Nikolas Maes to give it a shot. The big Belgian is not a pure sprinter but he has a decent turn of speed. He showed very good condition in the Eneco Tour but the final climb means that he may be dropped before we get to the fiish.

 

Carlos Barbero has been one of the revelations of this season and has already won several races. Most recently he won a tough uphill sprint in the Vuelta a Burgos. He will definitely try his hand in tomorrow’s stage but it is probably too easy for him to really shine.

 

Finally, Jasper Stuyven deserves a mention. The Belgian is reportedly in excellent condition but is set to work for van Poppel in the sprint. However, he will get his chance if the Dutchman is dropped in the finale. Last year he sprinted to a couple of good results and in a hard finale he should be able to do well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenolb, Caleb Ewan

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Danny van Poppel, Kris Boeckmans, Tom Van Asbroeck

Jokers: Jempy Drucker, Maximilano Richeze, Kristian Sbaragli, Lorrenzo Manzin, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Nikolas Maes, Carlos Barbero, Jasper Stuyven