Peter Sagan won the first battle of the sprinters and may eye a first ever double in a grand tour in stage 5. A tricky climb in the finale means that the puncheurs are likely to come to the fore but severe gradients could make it an unpleasant surprise for many riders targeting this stage.

 

The course

In recent years, the Vuelta organizers have not had many stages of more than 200km but this year they have made the routes a bit longer than usual. Already on the fourth day, the riders will tackle the first stage of more than 200km when they head out on 209.6 relatively flat kilometres in the coastal area near last year’s starting city of Jerez de la Frontera. For most of the day, it is a course tailor-made for sprinters but as usual, there is a nasty sting in the tail that will take out most of the fast finishers and make it a perfect day for the puncheurs that have plenty of room to shine in the first half of the stage.

 

The course brings the riders over 209.6km from the coastal city of Estepona to Vejer de la Frontera a little further west. The distance between the start and finish is relatively short but instead of following the direct road, the riders will spend a long day on the windy plains close to the Mediterranean Sea.

 

The first 33.5km consist of a flat run along the coast until the riders get to the city of San Roque where they will head inland. That will make the roads slightly lumpier but there are no major challenges on the mostly flat roads. After 141km of flat racing, they get to the coastal city of Puerto Real where they will cross a bridge to get to the spectacular city of Cadiz. Another bridge will lead back to the mainland where they will contest the intermediate sprint with 35.6km to go. From here, the riders will follow flat roads close to the coast that lead to the finishing city.

 

There are no categorized climbs on the menu but the stage has a nasty sting in its tail. With 4km to go, the riders hit the bottom of a 1km climb that averages around 12%, with peaks of up to 18%. After the top, the road is slightly ascending for another kilometre and then it’s a slight descent until the riders get to the final 500m that are uphill.

 

The finale is very technical. There are a two hairpin bends on the climb and then the road is slightly winding with a few sharp turns until the riders get to the flamme rouge just after a left-hand turn. Here they tackle two sweeping turns before they get to a 50m section of 12%. A left-hand turn leads to 230m with ramps of 12% and 14% and then there is a sweeping right-hand turn onto the short finishing straight which averages 4.5%. Furthermore, the road is very narrow.

 

Vejer de la Frontera has not hosted a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

As always, the heat has taken its toll in Andalusia and it won’t be any different tomorrow even though things should be a bit more bearable. It will be another day with bright sunshine but the maximum temperature in Cadiz close to the finish will be a pretty pleasant 28 degrees.

 

At the start, there will be a light wind from a northerly direction but it will gradually change direction. In the final part of the stage, it will come from the west and be significantly stronger. Hence, there will be a mix of cross-tailwind and cross-headwind in the first part before the riders get to a cross-headwind in the long section leading to Cadiz. From here they will have a cross-tailwind as they travel along the coast and this will make things nervous. In the finale, there will mainly be a tailwind until the riders get to the climb where there will mainly be a crosswind. In the finale, the many turns mean many changes of direction but it will mainly be a cross- or tailwind until the riders turn into a headwind with 250m to go. There will be a crosswind on the short finishing straight.

 

The favourites

While you mostly get what you see in the Giro and the Tour, the Vuelta a Espana has often had some unpleasant surprises for the riders. The Vuelta roadbook is famously known for not being very accurate and many riders have been left frustrated by climbs that were either much harder than the organizers had claimed or didn’t even feature in the official papers. Hence, riders are always a bit guarded when they are asked to pick their targeted stages in the Spanish race.

 

Today it was the late climb in the run-in to Malaga that could have produced a bit of a surprise. However, our research had shown that the highway ascent was not too tough and it turned out that it didn’t do any major damage. Kris Boeckmans was the only sprinter to lose contact here while it was the category 1 ascent and the many small hills in the subsequent section that proved to be too tough for riders like Caleb Ewan, Danny van Poppel and an ill Fabian Cancellara.

 

If the riders were a bit uncertain about what to expect in today’s stage, it will be nothing compared to their feelings about tomorrow. An almost completely flat stage has a nasty sting in its tail and it is one of those stages that is very hard to predict.

 

According to our information, the roadbook is pretty accurate this time. The 1km climb in the finale actually averages around 12% and the gradient never drops below the 10% mark. This makes it a very tough ascent. To make things worse, there is no immediate descent so there will be no chance to recover until the riders get to the slight downhill section with 1500m to go. Furthermore, there are some very steep 12-14% ramps inside the final 500m which will be too tough for many of the fast guys.

 

Furthermore, the finale is extremely technical and the road is very narrow. This means that it is very hard to move back into position if you drop back on the climb. With the many turns inside the final kilometre, it will be more about positioning than speed and punchy climbing skills.

 

The uncertainty about the finale also means that a breakaway actually has a chance. It is a very long stage so it requires quite an effort to control it all day. Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni have all proved that they can survive tough climbs in the finale but this could be a bit too hard for them. Are they going to ask their teams to work hard just to see their captains lose contact in the finale? If the stage turns out to be very hard, it is a good day for punchy climbers like Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. However, they don’t want to work for several hours just to see Peter Sagan take the win in a stage that may not be hard for them.

 

A wise sports director will have made this analysis and so we should see quite a fight in the early part of the stage just as we saw in stage 2. It has been interesting to see that a lot of teams are keen on joining the early breaks and it will be the same tomorrow. This means that we could get a relatively big and strong group and they won’t be easy to catch.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE definitely want to defend their jersey and they won’t let anyone end their time in red. However, lots of riders have lost quite a bit of time so they can easily take a back seat if the break doesn’t contain any dangerous riders.

 

However, the Australian team may still want to bring the group back. The finale could be a very good one for Simon Gerrans but much will depend on his condition. Going into the race, the team claimed that they expected their leader to suffer in the first week as this is his comeback so this stage may come a bit too early.

 

Giant-Alpecin could have the key to this stage as they have dual options. If the stage is not too hard, John Degenkolb may have a chance. If he is dropped on the final climb, Tom Dumoulin is likely to be one of the fastest survivors. He has a big chance to ride himself into red but needs the bonus seconds to do so. This is a great opportunity for the Dutchman so it would be almost stupid for Giant-Alpecin not to give it a try.

 

Finally, there’s Tinkoff-Saxo. Today’s win has definitely boosted Sagan’s confidence and this is one of the stages that suit him the best. There is a chance that the final climb is too steep for him but today his team proved that they are ready to work for the fastest of their two leaders. They spent a lot of energy in today’s stage but tomorrow they should be ready to give it a try again.

 

Finally, no one can rule out that Katusha and Movistar will lend a hand as the stages could be good for Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. Especially Katusha must be keen on an early stage win and we could again see Gatis Smukulis spend quite a bit of time on the front. Overall there should be enough firepower to bring the early break back even though a breakaway cannot be ruled out.

 

Today there was mainly a headwind so the wind was never an issue. However, that could be different in tomorrow’s stage. The riders will be riding close to the coast in the finale where there will be a cross-tailwind. Everybody will be ready to move to the front by the time we get to Cadiz and from there it will be extremely nervous. We don’t expect the wind to be strong enough to split things but the Vuelta always delivers surprises. Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will be ready to take the initiative if they see just a small chance to catch out some of their GC rivals.

 

In the end, we expect it to come down to a battle between the puncheurs. John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni can both handle pretty hard climbs but we expect 1km with 12% to be too much for them. Even if they make it, they won’t have enough left to make it back to the front and win a sprint that also includes some very steep sections. Instead, this will be a stage for the Ardennes specialists, with Peter Sagan being only sprinter with a real chance to win the stage.

 

Most of the cycling world was stunned by Tom Dumoulin’s comeback in yesterday’s stage. The Dutchman hadn’t raced since he crashed out of the Tour and so no one – not even himself – expected that he would be able to mix it up with the best climbers and even drop Nairo Quintana in the first summit finish. However, his hard training has evidently paid off and he is now eyeing the red jersey.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is simply tailor-made for the in-form Dutchman. He is great at positioning himself and has the technical skills to handle this tough finale. He is able to be up there with the best on this kind of climb too. If the finish line had come at the top, it would probably have been a bit too steep for him but with the rolling finale and a slightly uphill finale, he has all the skills to do well. He is fast in a sprint, extremely motivated and in excellent condition.

 

Like always the main challenge will be to control the final 3km. As always, most of the domestiques will get dropped on the climb so there won’t be many riders ready to bring back late attacks. Remember how Daniel Navarro won a similar stage last year by launching a late attack that no one could bring back. However, Dumoulin could easily be the one to take the initiative. If he gets a gap in the rolling finale, he will be extremely hard to catch. With a number of opportunities, Dumoulin is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Alejandro Valverde came up short in the first summit finish. With Nairo Quintana up the road, it was not his job to chase but the Movistar veteran also showed signs of weakness as he was unable to follow Joaquim Rodriguez in the finale. However, that’s not a big issue for Valverde who also suffered a bit in the first few stages last year before he went on to win the first summit finish.

 

Valverde now has a few days of racing in his legs and this stage has his name written all over it. He is one of the best on such a short, steep climb, he is good at positioning himself and technically extremely good. He is usually the fastest in this kind of uphill sprint and won’t be easy to beat unless Peter Sagan is there. The main challenge will be to keep things together for a sprint or whether he is willing to take the necessary risks in this very tricky finale.

 

It will be very interesting to see how Peter Sagan handles this stage. A 1km climb with gradients of 12% is usually a bit too steep for him. Often he is strong enough to hang onto the best on this kind of ascent but it will leave him empty for the final part. If he makes it to the top with the best, he will obviously be the fastest and he has all the skills to handle this technical finale. However, the final 500m include more very steep ramps and that could simply be a bit too much for the Slovakian who is still not in his best condition. To win the stage, he will have to rely on his technical skills more than on his speed and form.

 

Katusha have two cards to play in this stage. While Joaquim Rodriguez is their GC leader, Daniel Moreno should be their best card in this finale. The lieutenant is faster than the captain and he should find this finale to his liking. He is very strong on the steepest gradients and is technically very strong. He has the kick on the late ramps to make the difference and is one of the select few who can beat Valverde in a sprint. Finally, he is not as marked as Rodriguez so he may actually go on the attack like he did in the stage that Navarro won in last year’s race.

 

The stage has Simon Gerrans written all over it. If the finish had been at the top of the climb, it would have been too hard for the Australian who always skips the Fleche Wallonne because the Mur de Huy is too steep for him. However, he will be able to hang onto the best if his condition is good and he is usually faster than the likes of Moreno and Valverde in a sprint. The main question is whether his condition is good enough already at this early point in the race.

 

Daniel Martin is obviously in great condition and he will be eager to give it a shot in this stage after his excellent performance yesterday. The Irishman likes this kind of short, steep climb but would definitely have preferred the finish to come at the top. However, he is also very fast in a sprint and should be up there. Unfortunately, he is not always good at positioning himself and this could be costly in this tricky finale. In fact, his best chance could be to attack and he is never afraid of doing so.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is obviously in great condition. He was the strongest of the pre-race favourites in yesterday’s stage and will be motivated to pick up a few bonus seconds. He likes these very steep climbs and would have been the obvious favourite to win if the finish had come at the top. Now the finale may be a bit too easy for him as there are faster riders but he definitely has a chance.

 

A strong contender could be Gianluca Brambilla. The Italian rode really well in this race twelve months ago and now he again seems to be in good condition. He was 16th yesterday and this easier finale should suit him even better. He is technically very good, fast in a sprint and never afraid to attack in this kind of finale, meaning that he has several options.

 

Astana will be keen to get back on track after a bad start to the race. Luis Leon Sanchez is mainly here to support his captains but he could be given the chance to go for the stage win. He seems to be in very good condition and this finale suits him well. He is fast in a sprint and benefits from the flatter finale. Furthermore, he won’t be easy to catch if he attacks in the finale.

 

Race leader Esteban Chaves has confirmed his huge potential in the first stage and it won’t be impossible for him to win again. His main ambition will be to defend the red jersey but with Dumoulin going for the win, it means that he may have to try his hand in a sprint. He is actually pretty fast in this kind of finale as he proved in last year’s Tour of Beijing. The main problem for him could be the positioning aspect.

 

Nacer Bouhanni is known as a sprinter but he is actually very strong on short, steep climbs. Remember how he sprinted into the top 10 in Arcos de la Frontera in 2014 and even more impressively stayed with the best in the stage won by Daniel Navarro. This climb is probably too steep for him and he is unlikely to be at his best after crashing twice in a row. However, he has been able to surprise in such finales in the past.

 

John Degenkolb will definitely give it a try in this stage. On the longer climbs, he is better than Bouhanni who has the upper hand on the short, explosive ascents. This is probably a bit too steep for him and we don’t expect him to be up there. However, as there will be time to come back after the top, a win for the German can’t be ruled out.

 

On paper, this could also be a good finish for Sergio Henao who has the punchy skills to do well here. However, the finale is probably a bit too easy for him and as he went down hard yesterday he is probably still not at his best.

 

The biggest risk for the fast riders is that riders will attack in the finale. Several in-form riders are strong enough to make it to the top with the best and then take off when the road gets flatter. Look out for riders like Stephane Rossetto, Daniel Navarro, Romain Sicard, Cyril Gautier, Pello Bilbao, Amets Txurruka, Rodolfo Torres and Jelle Vanendert.

 

As said, there is a chance that a breakaway can make it in this stage. Look out for riders like Rinaldo Nocentini, Matteo Montaguti, Alessandro De Marchi, Amets Txurruka, Pello Bilbao, Fabio Duarte, Pieter Serry, Ruben Plaza, Thomas De Gendt, Davide Villella to win from a group that makes it to the finish

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Daniel Moreno, Simon Gerrans, Daniel Martin, Joaquim Rodriguez

Jokers: Gianluca Brambilla, Luis Leon Sanchez, Esteban Chaves, Nacer Bouhanni, John Degenkolb, Sergio Henao, Stephane Rossetto, Daniel Navarro, Romain Sicard, Cyril Gautier, Amets Txurruka, Rodolfo Torres, Jelle Vanendert

Breakaway candidates: Rinaldo Nocentini, Matteo Montaguti, Alessandro De Marchi, Amets Txurruka, Pello Bilbao, Fabio Duarte, Pieter Serry, Ruben Plaza, Thomas De Gendt, Davide Villella