For the riders, it may feel like they have already done a significant amount of climbing but in fact they have still not done a proper mountaintop finish. Tomorrow it is finally time to find out who has what it takes to win the Vuelta and even though Alto de Capileira is by no means the hardest climb in the race, it will definitely procide us with the first serious answers about the true condition of the riders.

 

The course

The first part of the race has included several uphill finishes but it is stage 7 that presents the riders with the first big mountaintop finish. This year the first big challenge comes a bit later than it has done in recent years and after a week of defending themselves in hectic finales, looking for opportunities in the crosswinds and going for bonus seconds, it is finally time to find out who has the climbing legs to go for the overall win in a summit finish that has never been used before in the Spanish race.

 

The stage brings the riders over 191.1km from Jodar to La Alpujarra and is the final day in Andalucia. With a mostly flat course, it is not a big climbing day and the first part of the race is made up of a long southerly run along typically lumpy Spanish roads with no major climbs. After 77km of, the riders will the riders will turn to the southwest where they will get the chance to warm up their climbing legs on the category 3 Puerto de los Blancares (9km, 3.3%) which is a typical Spanish uphill drag.

 

The next part of the course is mainly descending as the riders again head south before turning to the east to approach the final climb. They will get the chance to sprint for points and seconds in the intermediate sprint with 31.5km to go before they continue along descending roads to the bottom of the final climb.

 

The category 1 ascent of Alto de Capileira is 18.7km long and averages just 5%. However, the numbers are deceptive as there is a flat section of 5km from the 5th to the 10th kilometre. The first part is not very hard as the gradient stays between 3% and 8.5% and then the real climb starts with 8.7km to go. The gradient stays between 5% and 8% for most of the time but there is a steep section of 14% in the penultimate kilometre before the road levels out with 6% for the final kilometre. There are ramps of up to 13% though and the final 200m average 7.5%.

 

There are several hairpin turns just before the 5km to go mark and then the riders hit a long straight road. The final hairpin turn comes with 1800m to go and then it a slightly winding road to the finish.

 

Alto de la Capileira has never been used in the Vuelta before and not has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today was an extremely hot day in Andalusia and most of the riders will be frustrated to know that tomorrow will be more of the same, albeit slightly colder. It will be another day of sunshine with a maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb of 31 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that it will be a long day in the headwind. At the bottom of the first climb, the riders will turn into a crosswind but after Granada, it will again mainly be a head- or a cross-headwind. On the final climb, it will mainly be a tailwind until the riders turn into a headwind for the final 1800m.

 

The favourites

If anyone thought that Esteban Chaves’ win in stage 2 was a fluke, the Colombian firmly confirmed his exceptional potential by winning today’s stage. It has always been evident that he is an exceptional talent and if it hadn’t been for that horrific crash in 2013, he would already have won a lot more. His progress has been set back but now we are finally slowly starting to see just how far he can get.

 

We admit that we were pretty surprised to see him take another win. Honestly, we thought that the final climb was too easy for him to make a difference and as he was always going to be closely marked by Dumoulin, it would be hard to get a gap. However, the Dutchman made a big mistake by not staying close to the Colombian as he always had to make his move in the hardest part on the lower slopes. That may have cost him the leader’s jersey but one still has to admire the Giant-Alpecin rider for producing such an impressive defense in this tough finale.

 

While Chaves has been shining, the pre-race favourites have been riding pretty defensively. Like so often before, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez marked each other too closely in a finale that suited them down to the ground and so they both came away empty-handed. For Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana, it has all been a survival game in these punchy finales while Mikel Landa and Fabio Aru seem to be a bit below their best even though we are still to hit their preferred terrain.

 

The first uphill finishes have provided us with indications but no real answers yet. For more than a week, all the key riders have been keen to point out that stage 7 is the first real test and they are definitely right. Alto de Capileira is the first real mountaintop finish and that will make it completely different from the punchy finales of the last few days.

 

However, the final climb is not your typical brutally steep Spanish mountain. In fact, it is a pretty easy ascent and with a long flat section in the first half, the real climb is only around 8-9km. Furthermore, it is not very steep, with just a few double-digit sections near the top. Hence, it is unlikely to create massive time differences and so the indications will be more important than the actual time differences.

 

Today we had the first real battle to join the break as everybody knew that it could be a good day for the breakaway. In the end, the fact that Cyril Gautier was a GC danger and Movistar’s intentions spelled the end for the break but there should be options in the next few stages. Tomorrow could be the first one.

 

Usually, the GC riders want to win the first mountaintop finish and so escapees rarely have a chance. However, when the GC hierarchy is relatively flat, the door can be open for attackers like it happened earlier this year in the Giro.

 

Hence, we can expect another big battle in the early part of the stage. With stage 8 also offering opportunities for a breakaway, some may prefer to save some energy and the mountaintop finish won’t be encouraging for many. Hence, it probably won’t take 60km for the break to form but we should have a solid fight in the first part of the race. For Orica-GreenEDGE, it will be important to make sure that there are no dangerous riders in the break. They will be pleased to see the bonus seconds disappear up the road so they will do nothing to bring a non-threatening break back.

 

Today Movistar did quite a bit of work but it would be unusual of them to chase hard two days in a row. Nairo Quintana is still not at 100% and the finish doesn’t suit Alejandro Valverde as well as today’s. Sky are still playing a waiting game and there is no doubt that Chris Froome wants to test himself on a long climb before he asks his team to control the race.

 

Instead, Katusha have the key to the stage. The Russian team have done nothing to hide that this is the day that they have been waiting for. Joaquim Rodriguez looks very strong and with a time trial coming up, he has to grab every opportunity. That includes picking up bonus seconds whenever it is possible so we expect Katusha to make sure that the favourites will decide the stage. As the terrain is relatively easy, they can use their heavy guys Gatis Smukulis and Vladimir Isaychev for the early work and save their climbers for later which means that it doesn’t require too much of an effort for their key riders to set their Spanish captain up for a win. It won’t be impossible for a break to make it, especially if the group is strong, but we expect the favourites to battle it out for the win.

 

With the long flat section at the midpoint, it will be a waiting game. None of the favourites will plays their cards before we get to the second half. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see which team takes the initiative. Katusha, Sky, Movistar and Astana all have plans in this stage and could be seen riding tempo on the front until the battle between the favourites starts.

 

It is important to remember that the climb only get steep inside the final kilometre where they have turned into a headwind. This means that it will be hard for the favourites to make a difference before we get to the absolute finale, meaning that it may be more suited to the punchy riders than the real climbers. Furthermore, it opens the door for attacks from some of the outsiders. Movistar don’t have a team to control the race and Astana have no reason to do so. Katusha have some solid climbers, especially an in-form Alberto Losada, but Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez are likely to be isolated in the finale. Sky clearly have the strongest team but they may not be interested in controlling the race at this early point. Hence, there is a big chance that an outsider will ride away with the win while the main rivals are watching each other.

 

One of those riders is Rafal Majka. The Pole got the race off to a bad start as he was not at 100% in the first uphill finish but in stages 4 and 6 he has been very impressive. Now his time loss in stage 2 may actually be a blessing in disguise as he won’t be too heavily watched by Chaves and the main rivals. Already in today’s stage, he tried a few moves but was unable to get clear. However, it clearly shows his intentions.

 

Majka has not had the best of seasons and we openly admit that we were not too confident in his chances at the start of the race. However, his strong performances in recent stages have convinced us that he is on track for great things. He won’t win the race but he could easily pick up a few stage wins along the way. Tomorrow is a good chance. He seems to be one of the best climbers and last year Fabio Aru proved how it is possible to exploit the usual battle between the favourites. Look out for Majka to grab his chance and take his first Vuelta stage win.

 

Another rider with similar plans is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian is slowly building condition after he got the race off to a disappointing. He showed very good legs by sprinting to seventh in the bunch sprint on stage 5 and today he was again riding attentively in a finale that didn’t really suit him.

 

Pozzovivo has flown a bit under the radar but there is no doubt that he is ready. He has raced much less than his rivals and is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton. He will benefit from his status as an underdog and like Majka he could be the rider to launch a successful attack in the finale.

 

Another great candidate for such a move is Mikel Nieve. In general, Sky have a fantastic team with four potential winners of the stage. In the Tour, they would ride tempo for Froome but that is unlikely to happen at this point. Froome has clearly preferred to find his legs while allowing his domestiques to take their chances and tomorrow they are likely to have a similar approach.

 

Until now, Nicolas Roche has been good at grabbing those opportunities but as he is close to the overall lead, he will be marked. Instead, the door could be open for Nieve who has been really impressive. Already in the Tour de Pologne he was riding very well on short, steep climbs that didn’t suit him and he has been defending himself extremely well in these punchy finishes. He seems to be in outstanding condition and he could be the one to attack in the finale.

 

In case the favourites manage to control the many attacks, we will put our money on Alejandro Valverde. The Movistar captain and Joaquim Rodriguez have marked each other closely and that is likely to happen again in tomorrow’s stage. As the final climb is pretty easy, it will be hard for one of them to make a difference before we get to the final kilometre where there will be a headwind. There are some steep ramps where Rodriguez can make a difference but in an uphill sprint on this kind of gradients, Valverde is usually the fastest.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez had a very disappointing Tour de France but now he seems to be back at his best level. In stage 2, he was the best of the pre-race favourites as he even managed to drop Froome and Valverde and he has been riding solidly in the last two punchy finales too. In stage 4, the steep sections came too far from the finish for him to make a difference while today’s stage was probably a bit too easy. In an uphill sprint, only Valverde is faster than him but the Movistar captain has often suffered a bit on the longer climbs. With some steep ramps inside the final kilometre, it won’t be impossible for an in-form Rodriguez to again be the strongest in this finale.

 

Usually, Chris Froome is very hard to beat in the first mountaintop finish in a major stage race but we expect him to have a pretty conservative approach to this one. In stage 2, he allowed Roche to take his own chance as he wanted to ride his own tempo on the climb. With this being the first mountaintop finish, he is likely to again have that approach and so he is unlikely to make any big attacks at this point. He has the TT as a weapon later in the race and he knows that it is all about not going too deep too early. On the other hand, he seems to be riding very well. Today he finished third in the sprint which clearly indicates that he is at a good level. In fact, we think that he is strong enough to win this stage. The main question is whether he wants to go for it by making the attack that is needed if he wants to drop Rodriguez and Valverde.

 

With his impressive performances in the first few stages, it is hard not to mention Esteban Chaves. Until now, the Colombian has been the strongest on the climbs and there is a chance that he will deal his rivals another blow. In fact, he is better suited to the longer climbs so he should find tomorrow’s stage to his liking. However, everybody has now realized that he is a dangerous rival so he will no longer be given an inch. Furthermore, he is the race leader and will have to close some gaps himself which may cost him the energy that is needed to win the stage.

 

Today Daniel Martin again proved that he is riding very well but like so often before he waited too much before launching his attack.  Tomorrow’s longer climb suits him less but he has the advantage of not being marked by the main candidates. However, he is in third overall so Chaves is unlikely to give him too much ground but it won’t be impossible for an in-form Martin to get clear. Furthermore, he is very fast in an uphill sprint so he may even be able to beat the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez in the finale.

 

Of course Nairo Quintana deserves a mention. The Colombian has been defending himself well in the punchy finales but it is hard not to be left with the impression that he is not at 100%. In stage 2, he was even dropped by a big guy lie Dumoulin who again rode him off his wheel in today’s stage. Furthermore, the final climbs is not really suited to Quintana as it is not too hard. Finally, Rodriguez, Valverde and Froome are all faster than him in a sprint so he needs to ride away to take the win which won’t be easy.

 

The Astana duo of Mikel Landa and Fabio Aru have been rather anonymous until now. It seems that Fabio Aru is not at his best as he is usually pretty strong in these punchy finales. They are less suited to Mikel Landa so it is less of a surprise that he has been suffering a bit. In fact, we expect the Basque to be the strongest of the pair and he will also be less marked than his Italian rival. The door could be open for Landa to make an attack in the finale while Aru probably has to be the strongest if he wants to win the stage.

 

Sky are likely to use their strength in numbers to go on the attack. In addition to Nieve, they have Nicolas Roche and Sergio Henao. The Irishman is obviously in excellent condition but Chaves is unlikely to allow him any leeway. Henao is usually an outstanding climber but he is still suffering a bit from a crash in stage 2. However, both riders have the right aggressive mindset and a fast sprint which could allow them to exploit the tactical battle between the main contenders.

 

Another rider that is riding extremely well at the moment, is Louis Meintjes. The South African has an eye on the GC but he is never afraid of attacking. He tried in stages 2 and 6 and tomorrow he will definitely give it a go again. In the Dauphiné and the Tour, he proved that he can be up there with the very best on the climbs and the longer ascents suit him a lot better than the punchy finales. No one will be too concerned with him so who’s going to bring him back if he attacks?

 

Of course Tom Dumoulin also deserves a mention. The Dutchman is riding extremely well at the moment. He is less suited to the longer climbs than the punchy finales but as tomorrow’s climb never get very steep, it is actually not too bad for him. He suffers on the steepest gradients but he is usually very strong on this kind of climb. It won’t be easy for him to win the stage as Chaves will mark him closely. On the other hand, no one will be concerned with him so if the Colombian shows signs of weakness, he may be allowed to attack in the finale.

 

Today Joe Dombrowski and Rodolfo Torres showed signs of the form that has marked them out as solid top 10 contenders for this race. Both are a lot more comfortable on the longer climbs and as they have both lost time, they will not be heavily marked. Hence, they can both make late attacks. Domobrowski is even so far behind that he can join an early break and if he makes the right group, he will be very hard to beat.

 

As said, there is a chance that a breakaway will make it. If that’s the case, our prime pick is Ruben Plaza. The Lampre-Merida rider won a stage in the Tour where he was on the attack almost every day. After a slow start, he showed progress by taking fourth in today’s stage. Tomorrow the final climb is a real Plaza climb as it is long and never very steep. He is far behind in GC and has the power to get clear on the flats.

 

For other strong breakaway candidates, look to Jose Goncalves, Alessandro De Marchi, Pello Bilbao, Amets Txurruka, Angel Madrazo, Pieter Serry, Nelson Oliveira, Jelle Vanendert, Natnael Berhane and Riccardo Zoidl.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rafal Majka

Other winner candidates: Domenico Pozzovivo, Mikel Nieve

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Chris Froome, Esteban Chaves, Daniel Martin

Jokers: Nairo Quintana, Louis Meintjes, Mikel Landa, Sergio Henao, Nicolas Roche, Fabio Aru, Tom Dumoulin, Joe Dombrowski, Rodolfo Torres

Breakaway candidates: Ruben Plaza, Jose Goncalves, Alessandro De Marchi, Pello Bilbao, Amets Txurruka, Angel Madrazo, Pieter Serry, Nelson Oliveira, Jelle Vanendert, Natnael Berhane, Riccardo Zoidl