Cycling may have its five historic monuments but no one-day race carries more prestige than the World championships road race. No other international cycling race earns you the right to wear a distinctive jersey throughout an entire season and it's the only race that attracts equal interest from classics riders, stage race specialists, sprinters and climbers. For one day, cycling returns to its past when riders no longer represent their trade teams but form unusual and often difficult alliances with their compatriots to represent their home country.  The world championships road race is a truly unique event!

 

Most sports organize World Championships to determine their strongest athlete and in most cases, the event is the pinnacle of the sport. While the latter may not be entirely true in the case of cycling where the Tour de France has publicity and recognition that makes it overshadow every other race, the World Championships road race plays a unique role on the cycling calendar.

 

While the first track world championships were held back in 1893 - when the UCI wasn't even founded - the first honour of being the world's best road racer was awarded in 1927 when Alfredo Binda was the best in an Italian 1-2-3 on Nürburgring. At a time when many of the current cycling races already had established themselves and had a long history, the event immediately gained huge prestige as it is reflected by what is simply a formidable winners list.

 

With the event awarding the honour of being the best in the world, it's no surprise that the event has been dominated by the two strongest countries in the history of cycling. Belgium tops the list with its 26 titles followed by Italy with 19 while France is a distant 3rd with its 8 wins. Due to the varying nature of the courses and the tactical aspects of road racing, it is no mean feat to be a repeat winner of the title and only four very distinguished cyclists have accomplished the feat of triumphing three times: Alfredo Binda, Rik Van Steenbergen, Eddy Merckx and the more recent Oscar Freire.

 

One element of its prestige is of course the universal honour of being the world champion. What makes it even more special is the symbol of that status: the rainbow jersey. Cycling is famously known for its distinctive jerseys but they are usually only attached to specific events. Only one international race may earn you the right to wear a jersey throughout an entire year and that makes the win that more coveted. At every race, the world is reminded of the win and the status and while it may not always be a tactical advantage to stand out in the peloton, the importance from a publicity viewpoint cannot be underestimated.

 

Another aspect turns the world championships into a unique event. While most one-day races have a more or less fixed route with little room for variation, the Worlds are of a different nature. Held on different courses from year to year, the aim is to provide different types of riders with the opportunity to become world champions at some point during their career. The World Championships road race has no fixed format: one year it may be a paradise for the sprinters while the next may be one for the climbers or classics specialists

 

In that sense, it is different from many other sports in which the venue has little influence on the outcome. Road cycling is one of the most versatile sports and that makes it much harder to talk about the sport's best athlete. While the rainbow jersey is never worn by the strongest rider in every kind of road cycling, most of the best riders in a generation usually get the opportunity to wear it at some point in his career. No one can expect to be a contender every year: just recall how reigning champion Mark Cavendish played a loyal domestique role on the hilly course in Limburg in 2012. As it is always the case in road racing, luck plays a certain role but there is not too much randomness involved when it comes to the World Championships. It is certainly no coincidence that most of the strongest riders in the cycling history have worn the rainbow jersey at some point in their career.

 

In modern day sports, money plays a crucial role and cycling is no exception. Usually, the riders represent their trade teams but for one day they return to the past when they represent their country at the World Championships. While it takes the role of national pride to a whole new level, it creates difficulties for the national coaches who suddenly have to unite rivals in fighting for a common goal. The history is loaded with examples where those missions have failed and where national teams have been divided into different camps that reflect their trade teams and personal relationships. In modern day cycling, former Italian national coach Franco Ballerini was famously known for his ability to unite what had usually been a very disharmonious Italian team.

 

Like most other sports, cycling is usually a rather hierarchical with the best teams usually competing against each other but at the World Championships, the smaller nations get their chance to get some time in the spotlight. Lesser-known riders that are usually far from the glory of the WorldTour events race against the world's biggest starts in an event that really matters. At the same time, it is the only event where different teams are not on equal terms when they take to the start line. The level of tactics is further increased by the fact that some nations have far more riders than others and it is usually a significant disadvantage for even the strongest rider to come from a small nation.

 

Unlike the biggest classics, the World Championships road race is a circuit race. Several repetitions often make the very long race one of attrition and a gradual elimination and the familiarity with the course makes the tactics different from most other one-day races. Earlier it was mostly held entirely on a circuit that was to be repeated several times but in 2010, a new trend was started when the riders covered a long stretch in the beginning of the race before getting to the actual circuit. That idea was repeated in 2011, 2012 and 2013 but in 2014 and 2015 the race is back to its traditional format of being held entirely on a circuit.

 

Last year the race was held in Ponferrada on a course that had created much pre-race speculations: were the climbs too hard for the strongest sprinters and would the classics riders be able to make a difference in the end? A Worlds race has rarely been open to such a wide range of riders and in the end it was a descent that made the difference. Michal Kwiatkowski escaped on a slippery downhill section and crested the summit of the final climb with a small advantage over a group with Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, Matti Breschel, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin and Philippe Gilbert. The latter sacrificed himself for Van Avermaet but it was not enough to bring back Kwiatkowski who became the first ever Polish world champion before Gerrans beat Valverde in the sprint for third. All three podium finishers will be back to try do again be in the mix on a course that is less suited to their Ardennes characteristics than last year’s hilly race in Spain.

 

The course

World Championships road races are always mostly circuit races. This means that there is never room for any big mountains and so the pure climbers have very little chance to shine. On the other hand, organizers are usually keen not to design completely flat courses. Hence, the race usually suits the classics specialists with a fast sprint. One year it may be a harder affair that suits the Ardennes riders while other editions lean more towards the heavier guys that excel in the cobbled classics.

 

The 2011 race was clearly for the sprinters while the race in Limburg obviously was for Ardennes riders. The 2013 race in Florence turned out to be one of the few editions that suited the climbers. Italy made the race bloody hard and it ended up as a race of attrition. Last year the race was open for strong sprinters, Ardennes specialists and riders for the cobbled classics but in the end it was a group of riders that specialize in the hilly races that decided the race.

 

The race is back to its traditional format of being held entirely on a circuit and for the first time since 2003, the race will be held on the Western side of the Atlantics. Richmond has earned itself the right to host the race and is the first American city to do so since Colorado Springs in 1986. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, there was a relatively long opening section from a start outside the host city while last year it was held entirely on the circuit. This year the riders will do just 5.3km of flat riding before they get to the circuit of which they will do 12.8km before they get to the finish for the first time. From there, the rest of the race will be made up of 15 full laps of the challenging, technical 16.2km inner-city circuit. At 261.24m, it will have the usual length of a Worlds road race but it will be shorter than the 2013 mammoth affair of more than 270km.

 

The peloton heads west from Downtown Richmond, working their way onto Monument Avenue, a pave-lined, historic boulevard that’s been named one of the “10 Great Streets in America.” The road is flat and mostly straight in this first part of the circuit even though there are a few turn when the riders get to the university area after a few kilometres.The ridrers will take a 180-degree turn at the Jefferson Davis monument and then maneuver through the Uptown district and Virginia Commonwealth University back along the same flat, straight roads.

 

Halfway through the circuit, the race heads down a gradual descent into Shockoe Bottom before following the canal and passing Great Shiplock Park, the start of the Virginia Capital Trail. This is where it gets significantly more technical with several turns in the second half. However, the roads are still mainly flat until the riders face three short climbs in quick succession inside the final 3km.

 

A sharp, off-camber turn at Rocketts Landing brings the riders to the narrow, twisty, cobbled 200-meter climb up to Libby Hill Park in the historic Church Hill neighborhood. A quick descent, followed by three hard turns leads to a 100-meter-long climb up 23rd Street. Once atop this steep cobbled hill, riders descend into Shockoe Bottom. This leads them to the final 300-meter-long climb up Governor Street. At the top, riders face a 680-meter false flat to the finish. The final climb and the finishing straight is the same that was used for the time trial and the team time trial.

 

A Worlds race usually follows a typical script which makes it one of attrition and gradual elimination. The opening part of the race serves the purpose of creating the early break and there's usually a bit of tactics going on in this part of the race. To avoid the sole responsibility for the pace-setting, the big nations will all make sure that none of those are represented in the move and the early escapees are unlikely to be from any of the major favourite teams. Instead, it offers some of the smaller nations a chance to get some time in the spotlight. When the break is established, the first couple of laps will mostly serve to accumulate fatigue while the tempo is gradually increased and the elimination starts. The break usually gets a rather big gap but has to be kept under reasonable control to avoid the 2010 scenario when the early break almost lapped the field on the 15.9km circuit.

 

The race usually kicks off in earnest inside the final 100km when the tactical battle begins. With some teams wanting a hard race, they start to ride on the front or send riders up the road and it's a game of chess for the big teams to make sure that they don't find themselves missing from a move that contains most of their rivals. With a high-calibre field in which a number of the world's best climbers play domestique roles and several teams wanting to make the race hard, we are likely to see some big-name riders go on unusual attacks to tighten the screws for their captains. From a tactical standpoint, the Worlds road race is usually one of the most exciting to watch.

 

For the main riders themselves, a World Championships race is usually a waiting game. It's often important to stay calm and hide in the peloton, always believing that the different moves will be reeled in in time for the finale. Very often the world champion doesn't show his cards until the final lap and we will probably see the main moves from the captains of the teams that will avoid a bunch sprint during the final two passages of the three climbs. With a total elevation gain of just 1648m, this is not a race with lots of climbing. Instead, it is a day for punchiness, explosiveness, sprinting and crucial positioning on the twist, partly cobbled circuit where the strong sprinters and the cobbled classics specialists are expected to shine.

 

 

The weather

When the riders arrived in Richmond, they had summer-like conditions and the time trials generally took place under a sunny sky. That will change for the road races as Friday, Saturday and Sunday are all forecasted to be rainy and that will definitely have a big impact on the race.

 

Sunday is set to be the least rainy of the three days but a total amount of 9mm are still forecasted. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of rain from early in the morning until late in the evening, meaning that it is likely to rain throughout most of the race. There will be a maximum temperature of just 21 degrees.

 

It won’t be very windy as there will be a light wind from an easterly direction. This means that there will be a tailwind in the first part of the circuit and then a headwind as they travel back to the second U-turn. There will mainly be a tailwind in the final few kilometres with the three climbs and that will also be the case for the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The fact that the course for the World Championships varies from year to year means that it is usually discussed and scrutinized a lot in the final 12 months before the event. While the national coaches check it out, lots of riders are usually busy proclaiming that this year’s route is tailor-made for them. The classics all have a pretty fixed format but for the World Championships, you may see sprinters, classics riders and climbers all claiming that they can prevail.

 

This year it has been no different. With the race offering just 1648m of climbing, the climbers and stage race specialists have quickly abandoned all ambitions of becoming world champion in Richmond and most of them have not put their hand up for selection, with many staying in Europe to prepare for what seems to be an unusually hard edition of Il Lombardia. Riders that specialize in the Ardennes classics have also generally admitted that this race is too easy for them.

 

Instead, the attention has been focused on two categories of riders: the strong sprinters and the riders who excel in the cobbled classics. An almost all-inclusive list of riders from these two groups have made the Worlds a huge target and have specifically prepared for the event. With most of them apparently close to their best condition, the scene is set for an exciting race.

 

However, the toughness of the course is still heavily debated. It is a general perception that it is too hard for the pure sprinters, especially as the climbs come very close to the finish, so there will be no Marcel Kittel, Matteo Pelucchi or Andrea Guardini at the start. However, no one really knows how much damage the relatively short climbs will do at the end of a 260km race. Will it be too hard for sprinters like André Greipel and Elia Viviani? Will it come down to a reduced bunch sprint for riders like Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb? Or will it be possible for classics riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra and Michal Kwiatkowski to make a difference in the finale?

 

Even though most national coaches have had a look at the course a long time ago, it seems that the doubts are still prevalent. That is reflected in the team selections. Most of the nations with relatively big teams both have a sprint option and an option for a harder finale. Belgium have Boonen for a sprint and Van Avermaet, Gilbert and Vanmarcke for attacks, Italy have Viviani and Nizzolo for a bunch kick and Ulissi to cover the attacks, Spain’s two-pronged attack is the one of Lobato and Valverde, France have Bouhanni and Demare as fast riders and Gallopin and Alaphilippe for the attacks while the two-pronged Australian strategy revolve around Matthews and Gerrans.

 

However, there are teams that have a more clearly defined plan. Germany will be going all in for a sprint finish and the only question is whether it will be for Degenkolb or Greipel. Norway are fully focused on a sprint with Kristoff and France also seem to mainly have their eyes on a group arrival. As opposed to this, the Netherlands have no sprinter and will try to blow the race to piece, just like strong six-rider nations Poland, Czech Republic and Denmark who all have outsiders for the win. For a big favourite like Peter Sagan, there will not be much to do to determine the outcome as he only has two relatively weak teammates to support him. He will have to look at the big teams to find out what to do.

 

Most of the circuit is flat but the three short climbs come in quick succession near the very end. None of them are very long and two of them are cobbled, making them very comparable to the Belgian hellingen. On paper, they should not do much damage but with several passages during a long 260km race, it will add up and they should turn out to be quite challenging near the end.

 

Two elements will make the race much harder than it looks on paper. First of all there is the positioning which will probably be the most important aspect of the entire race. There are several turns in the final part of the circuit and some of them are pretty narrow. Even when riding just a few riders together, you have to brake to go through them so it will be very difficult from a 200-rider bunch to pass them. They will string out the peloton completely and require lots of accelerations which will add up throughout the race. Hence, you will be able to save a lot of energy by staying near the front but this will only make the fight much harder. It will be difficult to pick the right strategy to save as much energy as possible which is always very important in a Worlds road race which is always a bit of a  waiting game.

 

Secondly, the rainy conditions will have a huge impact on the race. This will make the corners even trickier and the race harder and more selective. Furthermore, it will add to the nervousness of the race. The combination of tight corners, a big fight for position in one of the most important races of the year and wet roads means that crashes are bound to happen and we will be pretty surprised if all the favourites will get to the finale without any kind of bad luck. This race will not only be about good legs. Positioning, management of the energy and luck will be equally important.

 

Everybody knows that Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb are the favourites in case of a sprint finish and even though most of the teams have a sprint option, a lot of nations will benefit from a hard race. With just 1600m of climbing, they can’t wait too long to make things tough so we expect an aggressive and entertaining race from far out. The Dutch, Spanish and Belgian teams will definitely try to make it as hard as possible and Italy may have similar plans. At the same time, Norway, Germany and Australia are likely to try to control things.

 

In the final 100km, we can expect some pretty big names to go on the attack to soften up the sprint nations. Riders like Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Julian Alaphilippe, Tiesj Benoot, Sep Vanmarcke, Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink, Roman Kreuziger and Rafal Majka are perfect for this job. Usually the early break is made up of riders from smaller nations but in the final laps, a group of pretty big names usually go clear. It will be very important for the key teams to be on their toes and make it into this move to avoid having to ride defensively.

 

However, there are so many teams that are interested in a sprint finish that we expect it to be back together for the final lap. With a long headwind section along the river, we doubt that it will be possible for anyone to stay clear after attacking on the penultimate lap so we expect the best classics like Van Avermaet, Gilbert, Ulissi, Valverde, Stybar and Gallopin to wait for the finale lap. Riders like Terpstra and Kwiatkowski have a brave attitude though and may try a bit earlier.

 

In the end, it will probably come down to a matter of whether the classics riders can distance the sprinters on the final climbs and hold them off in the finale. In any case, this is not a course for a solo rider to make a difference so it will be very hard to win this race without any kind of fast finish.

 

The problem for the classics riders are that some of the best sprinters also excel in the cobbled classics and so are among the best on this kind of climbs. One of them is Alexander Kristoff. After several years of near-misses, he was the king of the cobbles in 2015, winning almost everything in golden period of 14 days in late March and early April. Most importantly, he won the Tour of Flanders in extremely dominant fashion.

 

What was remarkable about that win was the fact that Kristoff didn’t wait for a sprint finish. Instead, he rode aggressively on the climbs and was clearly the strongest rider in the race. After escaping with Niki Terpstra, Kristoff easily responded to the Dutchman’s attacks and in the end it was Terpstra who had to hang on for dear life. His performances prove that no one is going to drop Kristoff in this kind of terrain when the Norwegian is at 100% of his capabilities.

 

The main question is whether he has hit peak condition. The indications are that he has. He never reached his best form for the Tour de France but in the last few weeks he has been flying. He was second behind Greipel in Hamburg and won the GP Plouay which is generally a relatively hard race. However, it was his performance in the Canadian races that really proved that he is in excellent condition.

 

Kristoff has always regarded the races in Quebec and Montreal as too hard for him and he mainly came there for pure training. However, he managed to finish third in Quebec – he was second in the sprint for second – which speaks volumes about his form. The harder race in Montreal was still a bit too tough but he was not far behind the best in a race that was dominated by Ardennes specialists.

 

In addition to the good condition, several aspects favour Kristoff. First of all he excels in the longest races. The longer, the better seems to be the motto for the Norwegian. He is clearly not the fastest in a pure bunch sprint but at the end of a long, hard race, he is in a class of his own. He may have been beaten by John Degenkolb in Sanremo but that was only because he started his sprint into the headwind a bit too early. In fact, he did a very impressive sprint that day.

 

The main challenge for Kristoff will be how find the right tactic. He is strong enough to follow the best on the climbs but it may be better to save his energy for a sprint finish. However, he can rely on a very strong Edvald Boasson Hagen to bring things back together in the finale so his best option may be to wait. However, he can win from almost every scenario and we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him in a sprint. The rainy conditions will favour him heavily as he is always one of the best in harsh weather – he is Norwegian – and the course suits him down to the ground. This makes Kristoff our favourite for the race.

 

In this kind of race, we believe that only one rider can genuinely hope to beat Kristoff in a sprint. John Degenkolb shares many of the same characteristics and he also specializes in sprints at the end of a long race of attrition. It is no coincidence that those two riders were first in the bunch sprint for the minor placings in last year’s race and filled the top two spots in this year’s Milan-Sanremo.

 

Like Kristoff, Degenkolb excels in the cobbled classics which he proved with his win in this year’s Paris-Roubaix. Compared to the Norwegian, he is a better climber but for some reason he has not had the same kind of success in the cobbled classics. He has always been among the best on the hellingen but he has also missed the final bit to go with the very best. Instead, he has been very strong in Paris-Roubaix where no one has managed to drop him on the cobbles for a few years.

 

Degenkolb goes into this race in outstanding condition. When it comes to personal results, the Vuelta was a disappointment but Degenkolb still proved that he is riding very well. He climbed much better than expected when he suddenly turned into a key domestique for Dumoulin and those performances boosted his confidence. His lack of results was mainly due to poor positioning in the sprints.

 

Degenkolb faces the same challenge as Kristoff. He is probably strong enough to go with the attacks but it may be better for him to wait for a sprint. He has a German team almost fully at his disposal but he may lack support in the very finale.

 

Furthermore, Degenkolb has another disadvantage compared to Kristoff. While the Norwegian is excellent at positioning himself and so rarely misses out on a result, the German often gets boxed in. He can’t rely on any kind of lead-out so there is a risk that he will again miss out. In that sense, he has to hope for a very selective race which will make the fight for position less intense in the finale.

 

Another issue is André Greipel. On paper, Greipel is the fastest of the two. However, it will be hard for Greipel to stay with the best at the end of such a long race and as the sprint comes just after a hard climb, we doubt the Lotto sprinter will probably be at his limit. It seems like it will be all for Degenkolb but if Greipel is on a super day, the Giant rider may have to sacrifice himself. However, we don’t expect that to happen and as he is the rider most likely to beat Kristoff in a sprint, Degenkolb is one of the top favourites.

 

Another rider with lots of options is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian’s condition is a bit of an unknown as he has not done a road race since he was knocked down by a motorbike on stage 8 of the Vuelta a Espana. However, he has been carefully preparing this race in the US and as his form was already great in Spain, we expect him to be very close to his best.

 

Sagan has achieved lots of great results in the cobbled classics so this course obviously suits him. More importantly, he has returned to his best. For some reason, he was below his usual level for a little more than a year until things suddenly changed in the Tour of California. Since then, he has again been the old Sagan who has been up there in both the sprint finishes and in very hard finales with punchy climbs.

 

However, even when he was at his very best, he failed to win a monument and the long distances have always been an issue for Sagan. He has definitely improved a lot since his first years – after all he has been second in Flanders and very close to victory in Sanremo – but no one can deny the fact that the distance doesn’t favour him. While Degenkolb and Kristoff benefit from the 260km, Sagan would have had a better chance if it had been a 200km race.

 

However, Sagan can win this race from every scenario. He is better on the climbs than Kristoff and Degenkolb and if a group goes clear in the finale, it is hard to imagine that he won’t be there. That is probably his best chance as he is usually not as fast as Kristoff and Degenkolb in a sprint. On the other hand, he has probably been sprinting better than ever in the last few months so he won’t be without a chance in a sprint finish, especially as the effort comes very close to the top of the final climb.

 

One big disadvantage is his team. He only has his brother Juraj and Michal Kolar at his side and they won’t make it far. He will be isolated very early and this will make it difficult to choose the right tactic. He has no teammates to bring back late attacks. That’s now a new situation for him as he has often lost races by being isolated in finales where he has used way too much energy. On Sunday, he has to gauge his effort perfectly and he has to make some gambles. However, if a group gets clear in the finale, Sagan is our favourite.

 

Michael Matthews has made it clear that this is probably his best chance to become world champion in the foreseeable future and it is definitely true that the course suits him. He may not have had much success on the cobbles but he has done well in the Amstel Gold Race which is not too different from this race. He can handle the distance, the positioning and the repetition of the climbs.

 

However, the course is likely to be too easy for him. Matthews is a better climber than both Degenkolb and Kristoff but he is not as fast as them in a sprint. He usually has no chance in a pure bunch sprint so we doubt that he will come out on top in a reduced bunch sprint. Like Sagan, his best chance probably is to follow the attacks as he could easily be the fastest in a small group that gets clear.

 

However, there are a few aspects that favour Matthews. First of all he has specifically prepared for this race and he claims to be in the best possible condition. That was evident in Canada where he was climbing with the best and he beat Kristoff in the sprint for second in Quebec. However, that was an uphill sprint where Matthews is usually among the very best while things will be different in a flat sprint.

 

On the other hand, the sprint comes very close to three successive climbs and this should favour Matthews. While it may take the sting out of the legs of the fastest riders, Matthews should be fresher. Even more importantly he may have Simon Gerrans to lead him out and that will be invaluable in a hectic finale. A harder course would have been better for Matthews but he can definitely win in Richmond too.

 

If the race becomes really hard, Zdenek Stybar will be ready to strike. The Czech has flown under the radar but there is no reason to underestimate the leader of what looks like the strongest Czech team ever. Stybar was second in Paris-Roubaix, one of the very best on the hellingen in Flanders and took a dominant win in Strade Bianche. Furthermore, he won a stage in his debut Tour de France and he is generally a master of peaking on the right day.

 

Stybar has followed the formula of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski by preparing for the race in the Tour of Britain where he should solid, albeit unspectacular, form. However, he claims to be feeling very good and history shows that he is likely to be on fire on race day. He is an excellent bike handle which will be extremely important on the technical course and as a cyclo-cross rider, he doesn’t mind the bad weather.

 

Finally, his sprint is much better than many think. In the 2013 Eneco Tour, he beat a pure sprinter like Maximiliano Richeze to win a stage and among the real classics riders, he is one of the very fastest. He has the right explosiveness to excel on this kind of course so if he can get rid of the likes of Sagan, Kristoff and Degenkolb, he has a great chance.

 

No rider has won more Worlds medals than Alejandro Valverde but the Spaniard still hasn’t worn the rainbow jersey. With next year’s race taking place in Qatar, this could be the final chance for the best Ardennes rider of his generation. Unfortunately, the course doesn’t really suit him as it is way too easy. On the other hand, Valverde can shine on almost every route.

 

Valverde doesn’t have much experience in the cobbled classics but last year he briefly headed to Flanders to prepare himself for the Tour de France. Here he proved his extremely high level of competitiveness as he nearly won the Dwars door Vlaanderen. E3 Harelbeke was a bit too difficult for him but this race is not a real cobbled classic. Instead, it is more about positioning, explosiveness and gauging the effort and in those aspects, Valverde is very strong.

 

Valverde was very tired at the end of the Vuelta but history shows that he recovers extremely fast. Last year he was almost dead at the end of the Tour but six days after the big finale in Paris, he won Clasica San Sebastian. Valverde always delivers in the road race at Worlds and he will definitely be there. He is not fast enough to beat the fastest riders but in a small group, he is very hard to beat. After all he has won bunch sprints in the past so if this race turns out to be too much for the sprinters, he will be one of the obvious favourites.

 

Belgium have Tom Boonen for a sprint but they have done nothing to hide that they will try to make the race hard. On the final lap, it will be up to Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert to make a difference. Of those two riders, the former seems to be the best card as he has generally been the strongest all year. In fact, he has been the most consistent one-day racer of the season and has been up there in almost every big classic in 2015.

 

This year Van Avermaet was on the podium in both Flanders and Roubaix and he is generally one of the strongest in this kind of terrain. Of course he won’t win a big sprint but he has the speed to win from a small group. He is faster than Gilbert so if they are both present in a break, we may see a repeat of last year’s scenario where Gilbert worked for his compatriot and teammate. That could help a break stay away.

 

Van Avermaet was not at his best in the Canadian races which was a bit of a surprise. However, it may have been a good idea to back off a bit before ramping his form up for the Worlds. He is so extremely consistent but may have missed the real peak form that has been the difference between winning and finishing second or third. Obviously, he needs to get rid of the very fast guys but he could be strong enough to do so if he is at the level that allowed him to beat Sagan in a stage at the Tour de France.

 

The French team hasn’t got much attention and that is probably a mistake. Nacer Bouhanni may have had a very unfortunate season but he will still be a contender in this race. Last year he proved that he can handle the distance as he was third behind Kristoff and Degenkolb in the sprint for the minor placings and he is a very good climber, especially on short, explosive climbs like these.

 

Bouhanni may not have had much one-day success but that is more due to his position in the FDJ team than a lack of potential. In his former team, it was all about Arnaud Demare in the one-day races and so Bouhanni has only had one shot at the one-day races. He didn’t have much success in his debut but the talent is definitely there.

 

Bouhanni crashed out of the Vuelta but has already done several one-day races since then. Most recently, he boosted his confidence by winning GP d’Isbergues. On paper, he is faster than the likes of Kristoff and Degenkolb but that is unlikely to be the case after 260km. However, he belongs to the select group of riders that can hope for a win in a sprint scenario.

 

Tom Boonen belongs to the same group of riders. If this race had been held just a few years ago, the Belgian would have been one of the outstanding favourites. However, Boonen is no longer the dominant force he once was and even though the course is tailor-made for him, he is now more of an outsider.

 

However, Boonen has been extremely focused on this race for several months and he claims to be in excellent condition. When he won a bunch sprint at the Eneco Tour, he proved that he still has the speed to beat some of the fastest riders and he even claimed that the number showed that he is faster than ever before. Furthermore, he is the same type of sprinter as Kristoff and Degenkolb which means that he is much stronger at the end of a 260km race. Nonetheless, recent history shows that those two riders are now stronger in the classics terrain and both are also faster. Things have to come together for Boonen to win a sprint but with a very strong team at his side, it won’t be impossible.

 

We are very curious to see what André Greipel can do in this race. For the first time since 2011, he is going all in for the World Championships and has prepared specifically for the race. He seems to have hit peak condition just at the right time as he was climbing exceptionally well in the Tour of Britain.

 

Greipel has not had much one-day success in his career and generally he has had a hard time in the very long races. However, he rode excellently in the Tour of Flanders and if he had gauged his efforts better, he could have been a podium contender that day. This time he will be a leader and so will save much more energy for the finale.

 

On paper, Greipel is the fastest rider in the race but that may no longer be the case at the end of 260km, especially as the final climb comes very close to the finish. We doubt that he will be there at the end and Germany will probably support Degenkolb. However, if he has the legs he had in Flanders, nothing will be impossible for Greipel.

 

Alejandro Valverde is the Spanish leader but the team has a back-up plan for a sprint. Juan Jose Lobato has flown under the radar but he is very ambitious for this race. He got the year off to a fantastic start by taking dominant wins in uphill sprints but since then he has been far from his best. However, he returned to form I the Tour of Britain and seems to have timed things perfectly.

 

Last year Lobato nearly finished on the podium in Sanremo and so he has proved that he can handle the distance. Very often he has proved that he is one of the very fastest sprinters but he has missed out on wins due to very bad positioning. In this race, the field is likely to be a lot smaller and that should benefit Lobato who may even have Valverde for the lead-out. There is no doubt that Lobato has the speed to upset the big-name sprinters.

 

Last year Simon Gerrans took the silver medal but there is a vast difference between 2014 and 2015 for the former Liege winner. 12 months ago he has shown excellent condition in Canada but this year he is still coming back from a fourth big crash. He got through the Vuelta but showed no kind of form as he mainly worked for Esteban Chaves and even the Australian team admits that they don’t know where he stands.

 

However, it would be dangerous to rule Gerrans out. No one is better at peaking for the big day than the Australian who almost always reaches his biggest targets. There is no doubt that Matthews is the leader of the team but if he is feeling good, Gerrans will have the job to go with the attacks in the finale. Last year he beat the likes of Valverde and Van Avermaet in the sprint for second and in the past he has even beaten a guy like Sagan. If he is back on form, Gerrans is one of the favourites from the breakaway scenario.

 

Matti Breschel has not had any standout results in 2015. However, that wasn’t the case in 2014 either and he still managed to finish fourth. The Dane has turned into a bit of a Worlds specialist and he has already medaled twice. This year’s course suits him down to the ground as he was once one of the very best in the cobbled classics.

 

Breschel showed excellent condition in August until he was set back by a crash in the Eneco Tour. He looked like one of the strongest riders in Plouay but his star faded a bit due to his poor showing in Canada. However, history shows that you should never rule Breschel out in a Worlds road race. He won’t win a bunch sprint but if he is in a small group in the finale, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Italy is one of the most successful nations in the history of the event but since Paolo Bettini retired, they have not had much success. This year they are again an outsider nation and they will be hoping for Diego Ulissi or sprinters Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani. We don’t think the race is hard enough for Ulissi to win so their best chance comes in a sprint and there is no doubt that Viviani is their fastest rider.

 

The Sky sprinter has proved that he now has the speed to beat the very best, most recently in the Tour of Britain where he won three stages and seemed to have the upper hand compared to Greipel. However, he has never had much one-day success and there is a big chance that this race will be too hard for him. Things haven’t been made any easier by the fact that he crashed before the TTT and hurt his knee.

 

However, Viviani has trained very specifically for this race and this is a very big goal for him. To have a chance, the race can’t be too hard and we doubt that he will be there at the finish. However, if he makes it, he could turn out to be the fastest if he can overcome his usual struggles in the fight for position.

 

Finally, the Dutch team deserve a mention. They have not selected a sprinter but have three riders that excel in this kind of terrain. Niki Terstra is the designated leader but Lars Boom and Tom Dumoulin will both have protected roles. Terstra seemed to be in very good condition in the Vuelta but his big problem is that he is not very fast in the sprint. However, he has the right panache to go on the attack in the finale and if anyone can take a solo win, it is probably him. Boom’s form is a bit uncertain but he is generally very strong in this terrain and has a sprint to win from a small group. Finally, Dumoulin will be a very strong contender if he has recovered from his muscle problems. The Vuelta may not have been the best preparation for a short effort like the time trial but his diesel engine should come in handy in this race. If this race becomes very hard, Dumoulin could be there in a small group and don’t forget that he is fast in a sprint.

 

***** Alexander Kristoff

**** John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan

*** Michael Matthews, Zdenek Stybar, Alejandro Valverde, Greg Van Avermaet, Nacer Bouhanni

** Tom Boonen, André Greipel, Juan Jose Lobato, Simon Gerrans, Matti Breschel, Elia Viviani, Niki Terpstra, Tom Dumoulin, Lars Boom

* Giacomo Nizzolo, Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Daryl Impey, Rui Costa, Arnaud Demare, Luka Mezgec, Ben Swift, Rigoberto Uran, Michael Albasini, Tiesj Benoot, Sep Vanmarcke, Fabio Felline, Matteo Trentin, Diego Ulissi, Vincenzo Nibali, Julian Alaphilippe, Jempy Drucker, Ramunas Navardauskas, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Grega Bole,