Cycling in Belgium may be almost all about one-day racing but as one of cycling’s traditional powerhouses, the country of course has its own national tour. The Tour of Belgium may not get the same amount of attention as the classics but one of the oldest stages races on the calendar is a great hotchpotch of all the features that characterize the biggest events in the area – wind, sprints, cobbles and short, steep climbs in the Ardennes – and so it always offers great racing for fans who wished that we were still in April.

 

Italy, France, Belgium and Spain have traditionally been regarded as cycling’s key countries but the four countries have a very different culture. While Italy and Belgium have mostly had one-day races in their country, it is always all about stage racing in Spain. France is a bit of a mix as it has a bit of everything in a very diverse calendar.

 

Belgium is known as the big classics country with no less than three monuments taking place there. However, as every important cycling country, it also has its own national tour. It may even come as a surprise to many that the Tour of Belgium is the second oldest stage race in the world, with only the Tour de France being older. However, while the Tour, the Giro d’Italia and the Volta a Catalunya – the other three of the four oldest stage races on the calendar – play a prominent role on the WorldTour, the national tour in Belgium gets far less attention.

 

There is no lack of interest in stage racing – after all Eddy Merckx is the most successful stage race rider  ever and the country is constantly looking for a new grand tour contender – but the one-day races have always been the dream of every young Belgian rider. Hence, the Tour of Belgium has had a difficult time and has even been battling hard just to survive. It was held annually between 1908 and 1981 – except during the world wars of course – but between 1982 and 1990, it was cancelled several times. From 1991 and 2001 it disappeared from the calendar before it was revived for the 2002 season. Since then it has again found its spot as an important race on the schedule and it is no longer fighting for survival.

 

With the introduction of the ProTour in 2005, there were plans to create a Tour of Benelux by merging the Tours of the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. The idea resulted in the creation of the Eneco Tour but only the Dutch tour ultimately joined the project. That race is now the biggest Belgian stage race as it is held in both Belgium and the Netherlands while the Tour of Belgium preferred to continue as a separate race. However, apart from the length and the fact that the Eneco Tour is a Dutch-Belgian race, the two events are very similar.

 

The race is held in the final week of the Giro d’Italia and so it is always hard to get much attention outside its home country. However, the race plays an important role for many classics riders and riders targeting the Tour de France. It comes at a time when many of those riders have had a break from racing and so it is a great chance to get back up to racing speed with five tough stages. For the smaller Belgian teams, it is one of the highlights of the season, especially for the continental teams that are not allowed to do the WorldTour classics.

 

The Tour of Belgium is a bit of an amalgamation of the classics. It usually offers an important time trial, two potentially windy sprint stages, a small cobbled classic and a hilly stage in the Ardennes. Hence, it is a fascination display of everything the big one-day races have to offer and so the race deserves more attention that it actually gets. As a 2.HC race on the calendar, the UCI gives it plenty of recognition and it offers very important points for the teams in attendance.

 

Last year the organizers introduced the novel idea of the Golden Kilometre. It’s three separate sprints that come within 1-2km and each of them offers 3, 2 and 1 bonus seconds. The GC riders went for it in last year’s edition and the Eneco Tour organizers liked the idea so much that they included the concept for their race too. This year the Golden Kilometre will be back and add an extra layer of excitement to the race.

 

Despite the long history, the most successful rider is actually still active. Tony Martin is the only rider to have won the race thrice as he conquered the event every year from 2012 to 2014. However, he skipped the event in 2015 and that allowed Greg Van Avermaet to take over the throne as he beat Tiesj Benoot and Gaetan Bille into the minor podium positions after having won the queen stage on the final day.

 

The course

As said, the Tour of Belgium can be regarded as a combination of four classics and a very important time trial into a five-day race. The race usually has two sprint stages where the wind can often play a role, a stage through the Flemish Ardennes that is like an easy edition of a cobbled classic, and a queen stage in the Ardennes. The race has usually been decided by a combination of bonus seconds, the time trial and the queen stage while the three flatter stages have failed to create much separation.

 

The key stage has often been time trial which has usually had a distance of 10-20km. However, for the second year in a row, the organizers have opted for a prologue, meaning that it is much harder for the time triallists to win the race. Furthermore, the queen stage has had a very varied difficulty. This year the Ardennes stage comes on the fourth day and with two passages of the famous Cote de la Redoute, it is a pretty hard one. However, the key climbs come pretty far from the finish so there will be time for riders to get back.

 

In general, the 2016 edition is a classic one. After the prologue, there’s a sprint stage on the second day while the cobbled stage comes on Friday. Saturday is the day of the queen stage and then there’s a slightly hillier sprint stage on the final day.

 

Prologue

For the second year in a row, the race kicks off with a prologue. This year it is held in the city of Beveren on a 6km course. It is completely flat and includes a total of 8 turns. That makes it a pretty technical affair.

 

With no long time trial, this is the only chance for the time triallists to make a difference and even though it doesn’t play the same big role as it did when it was longer, the time trial is still a key stage in the race. The course is a very traditional route for a prologue and should be dominated by the real prologue specialists. Hence, we should see a mix of sprinters and time trial specialists battle it out of the first leader’s jersey.

 

 

Stage 1

Apart from in the 2008 edition, the Tour of Belgium has had a sprint stage in Knokke-Heist in the first half of the race every year since it returned to the calendar in 2002. It won’t be any different in 2016 as the first road stage will bring the riders over 177.5km from Buggenhout to the coastal city. There won’t be a single categorized climb on the menu on what will be a day in flat terrain. The stage ends with two laps of a 25km finishing circuit that ends with the traditional uphill finishing straight along the seafront. The golden kilometre comes on the final lap and starts with 18.9km to go.

 

This stage has traditionally been one for the sprinters and it is unlikely to be any different in 2016. However, the wind can play a role in the finale where the riders will be close to the coast. That could potentially split the field but we should have some kind of sprint in the end. The uphill finish suits the powerful sprinters, with Tom Boonen taking the win in 2015.

 

 

Stage 2

Very often the cobbled stage has come on the third day which will again be the case in 2016. Stage 3 will bring the riders over 200.4km from Knokke Heist to Herzele in the Flemish Ardennes. The first flat part will bring the riders onto the finishing circuit which they will reach after 77km of racing. Then they will go over the famous cobbles of the Paddestraat and Lippenhovestraat before they get to the finish for the first time.

 

The final part of the stage is made up of two laps of a 55.6km circuit. It includes the famous climbs of the Valkenberg, Leberg and Berendries. The final of those hellingen comes with 22.3km to go and then the riders will go over the Paddestraat and Lippenhovestraat before they get to the final 10km that are flat and without any cobbles. The finale is a bit technical as there are two turns inside the final 1100m, the final of those coming 500m from the line. The golden kilometre comes on the Berendries on the final lap, with the first sprint coming at the bottom of the climb, the second one coming at the midpoint and the final one coming at the top.

 

The stage may include some cobbles and famous hellingen but the three climbs are definitely not the hardest in the region. Furthermore, they come pretty far from the finish so the late cobbles are likely to do more damage. The stage will create a bit of selection but unless crashes or wind wreak havoc on the field, the GC contenders should all be there for what is likely to be another sprint finish. However, the uphill golden kilometre is a great chance for some of the contenders to go for some bonus seconds.

 

 

Stage 3

This year the queen stage comes a bit earlier than usual as it will be held already on the penultimate day. At 206.9km, it is a very long stage that takes places around the city of Verviers in the Ardennes heartland. It consists of two different circuits, with the final part of the circuits being the same. In total, the riders will do 12 climbs on what will be a very hilly stage.

 

Having crossed the finish line during the neutral zone, the riders will embark on the first circuit. The first climb, Cote de Desnie (4.4km, 6.2%) comes at the 14.3km mark and is followed by Cote du Circuit (1.1km, 6.4%), Cote Bois du Loup (1.8km, 5.8%) and Cote du Tros Marets Mont Rigi (9.3km, 3.4%) before the riders get to the final part which is also part of the final circuit. It includes the famous Cote de Maquisard (2.9km, 5%) and Cote de la Redoute (1.65km, 9.7%) which are both known from Liege-Bastogne-Liege (the riders won’t do the entire climb of la Redoute) and finally the Cote de Banneux (3.8km, 5.2%) and the short Rue de la Paix (700m, 8.6%). La Redoute comes 37.1km from the finish while the final two climbs come with 21.7km and 5.2km to go respectively.

 

Having crossed the finish line for the first time, the riders will tackle the 66.3km finishing circuit. It cuts off the first part of the big circuit before the riders rejoin the first part of the course just before the Cote de Maquisard. From there, it is an identical run back to the finish, meaning that the riders will tackle the Maquisard, Redoute, Banneys and Rue de la Paix twice. The finale is technical with several turns and roundabout, with the final obstacle coming less then 500m from the finish. The final kilometre is uphill. The Golden Kilometre comes on the Cote de Banneux on the final lap. The sprints come at the bottom, halfway up the climb and at the top.

 

This is the big stage of the race and where the classics riders and climbers have to make a difference. Cote de la Redoute is one of the hardest climbs in the region but it comes too early for the best climbers to go on the attack and it won’t be easy for a handful of riders to stay away to the finish. The Cote de Banneux is a better option and they will also have to pick up bonus seconds there. However, the race is likely to be a gradual elimination race before the best riders battle it out on the Rue de la Paix which is a perfect launch pad for a late attack and it could very well allow a rider to take a solo win in Verviers.

 

 

Stage 4

The queen stage has often come on the final day but this year the final stage is for the strong sprinters and unlikely to make much of a difference in the GC. It will bring the riders over 174.2km from Tremelo to Tongeren and is mainly flat. The riders will tackle two pave sectors in the first half before they get to the finishing city. Here they will end the race by doing three laps of an 18.8km finishing circuit that has a few smaller climbs but no big challenges. The finale is flat and includes three turns inside the final 200km, with the final obstacle doming 450m from the line. The golden kilometre comes on the penultimate lap with 25.9km to go.

 

The race director claims that time gaps can be created on the final circuit but that seems to be very unlikely. There are no major climbs so unless it is windy, it should be a sprint stage. However, the Golden Kilometre could very well come into play if the time gaps are small which is usually the case in the Tour of Belgium.

 

 

The favourites

Baloise Belgium Tour usually comes down to the time trial, the queen stage and the ability to pick up bonus seconds. In the past, the time trial has been the dominant factor but for the second year in a row, the shorter distance means that the classics riders have a better chance. They are also favoured by the Golden Kilometre as there are more bonus seconds available late in the stages where the early break have often been caught and many of the classics riders are relatively fast.

 

However, they challenge is the queen stage. Most of the classics riders will lose time in the time trial and the main question is whether they can take back enough time in the Ardennes. That was the case in 2015 where the queen stage was pretty selective while Tony Martin has been able to defend himself well in most of the previous editions. This year the queen stage seems to be relatively hard and the classics riders definitely have a better chance than usual.

 

Furthermore, the wind can come into play and it may be important to have a strong team for tough conditions. However, the weather seems to be pretty nice for the 2016 edition. We are likely to have a sunny start and rain in the weekend but at the moment it seems that there will only be a relatively light wind every day. Hence, we don’t expect the wind to become an issue.

 

Hence, we expect the race to come down to a battle between the punchy Ardennes specialists and the best time triallists who can climb well enough to be close to the best in the queen stage. Tony Martin belongs to the latter category. The German is making his return for the first time since he won the race three years in a row and he will be going all out in an attempt to take a record fourth win. However, this year’s course doesn’t suit him as well as it has done in the past. Usually, he has built a big advantage in the time trial and then stayed with the best in the queen stage. This year the time trial is a lot shorter and even though he should gain time on all his rivals on the opening day, he will have much less of a buffer for the queen stage.

 

Things will be made much more complicated by the Golden Kilometre. Martin is not fast and most of the classics riders will easily gain time on him in the intermediate sprints. Finally, the queen stage is harder than usual and it will be harder for him to keep up with the best.

 

Still we regard Martin as the favourite. There aren’t many great time triallists in the race and among the potential winners, Martin is clearly the best. Unfortunately, he has been time trialling pretty poorlu in the last two years and he is definitely no longer the time triallist he once was. Furthermore, a prologue is not ideal for his diesel engine. Nonetheless, he should be able to get a buffer.

 

It will all come down to whether he can stay with the best in the queen stage. At his best, Martin is very good on relatively short climbs. After all, he has won Paris-Nice and he has almost won the Tour de Suisse. In recent years, he has actually been climbing really well and this year he has done a lot of classics which sets him up nicely for the queen stage. We doubt that he will be too troubled by the climbs in stage 3. Of course his question is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced for more than three weeks. However, Martin has always come into this race on the back of a break and he has always hit the ground running. We expect him to do so again in 2016 and so he is our favourite.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Tiesj Benoot. The Belgian was second in last year’s race and will be eager to improve on his performance in 2016. He crashed in the Tour of Flanders and so we never got to see what he could do there but the signs were that he was even better than he was in his excellent neo-pro season. After the Amstel Gold Race where he fell ill, he eased back into racing in Picardie and has been training at altitude. This race is a goal for him so his form should be good.

 

Benoot is not a great time triallist so he will lose time in the first stage. Then he needs to regain his losses and with his fast sprint, he will be able to pick up many bonus seconds in the intermediate sprint. The queen stage suits him really well as he is one of the best climbers here and as he is very fast in a sprint, he will be one of the favourites for that stage. If he can limit his losses in the time trial and win the queen stage, it may be enough to win the race overall.

 

The big question mark for the race is Lieuwe Westra. On paper, the race suits him down to the ground as he is a great time triallist who can do well in moderately hilly terrain. He hasn’t been time trialling at his best in recent years but he seems to be getting closer to his best again. However, he is very inconsistent and you never know what version of Lieuwe Westra you will get. If he is riding like he was in De Panne, he will be very hard to beat in this race but if he is at his Romandie level, he will not even be a contender. He hasn’t raced for almost a month so nobody knows how he is going.

 

Wanty-Groupe Gobert lost their leader Gaetan Bille who crashed at the GP de la Somme but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have an overall contender. Enrico Gasparotto has been better than ever in 2016 and if he is still at his classics level, he will be the favourite for the queen stage. He is not a time trial specialist but he can actually do well in a technical prologue. The main question is what kind of form he has. After all, he hasn’t raced since Romandie and he usually needs time to find his best condition. On the other hand, his next big goal is the Tour de Suisse so his form can’t be too bad.

 

Sylvain Chavanel is one of the big favourites for the prologue and that will naturally put him in overall contention. However, he is no longer climbing as well as he once was and so the queen stage may be a bit too much for him. This year he hasn’t been very competitive in the hilly races but things could change for this race as he builds form for the Tour de France. He is fast and can pick up bonus seconds too. He was strong in Dunkirk and is usually consistent so his form can’t be too bad.

 

IAM claim that they are here for stage wins but on paper Dries Devenyns should be a great candidate for the win. This year the Belgian has been better than ever but unfortunately he fell ill for the classics. He hasn’t raced for a long time so his form is uncertain but on paper the race suits him really well. He is a very good prologue rider as he proved at Paris-Nice where he was in the top 10 on the first stage. He is great in hilly terrain too and the queen stage should suit him pretty well. If he can do a good prologue and get rid of the likes of Martin and Westra on the hills, he can win this race.

 

Cannondale are here with Tom-Jelte Slagter whose form is very uncertain as he is coming back after a small break. He has not been at his best this year but on paper the queen stage suits him excellently and he will be one of the favourites there. He is not a time triallist but has done some decent prologues in the past. If he can limit his losses there, go for bonus seconds in the uphill intermediate sprints and win the queen stage, he can add this race to his palmares.

 

Katusha are here with Sergei Chernetskii and Simon Spilak. The race doesn’t really suit Spilak as he is not a great prologue rider and not explosive enough to do well in the queen stage. However, he is one of the best climbers so he may be strong enough to take a solo win. Chernetskii is a better candidate as he can time trial and sprint but he is probably not good enough to win the race.

 

Androni have Francesco Gavazzi who is a candidate if he can limit his losses in the prologue. He is fast and a good climber so he can pick up lots of bonus seconds and go for the win in the queen stage. However, he was very bad in Dunkirk so his form is uncertain.

 

On paper, it’s also a good race for Simon Geschke as he is a good prologue rider, has a good sprint and an Ardennes specialist. However, Giant-Alpecin have played down expectations for his GC and claims that they are here for stage wins. Furthermore, he has not been riding very well in 2016 and he has just come back from a break.

 

Thomas Voeckler also deserves a mention. The Frenchman has become pretty inconsistent but when he is on fire, he is still very good. He was impressive at the Tour de Yorkshire and if he has the same legs here, he can win the queen stage. Unfortunately, he is not fast so he won’t pick up many bonus seconds and he is not a good prologue rider.

 

Reto Hollenstein is one of the favourites for the prologue. He has been doing some excellent time trials this year and could create a surprise on the first day. As he is also a solid climber, he should also do well in the queen stage.

 

Finally, Lars Boom deserves a mention. The Dutchman is not the time triallist he once was but on his best days, he can still do a good prologue. He is fast and can go for bonus seconds but on paper the queen stage should be too hard for him. On the other hand, he has proved that he can survive in the Ardennes at the Eneco Tour so if he has his best form, he may be able to hang onto the best. However, we doubt that his form is good enough to be competitive as he has to be at 100% to win this race.

 

***** Tony Martin

**** Tiesj Benoot, Lieuwe Westra

*** Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Dries Devenyns, Tom-Jelte Slagter

** Sergei Chernetskii, Simon Spilak, Francesco Gavazzi, Simon Geschke, Thomas Voeckler, Reto Hollenstein, Lars Boom, Wout van Aert

* Sam Oomen, Dylan Van Baarle, Dominik Nerz, Floris De Tier, Oliver Naesen, Silvio Herklotz, Xandro Meurisse, Niki Terpstra, Yves Lampaert, Stijn Devolder, Jack Bauer, Jasper Stuyven, Sebastien Delfosse