When a legend says goodbye, it is only natural to launch a new event to celebrate his achievements. That’s what Australia did when their only Tour de France winner Cadel Evans retired and he did so by lining up for the inaugural edition of his ‘own’ race, his eponymous Great Ocean Road Race that takes place on parts of the course that was used for the 2010 World Championships won by Thor Hushovd. Even though the fairytale ending failed in 2015, the race was a huge success and with its classics-like parcours is back in 2016 with an even stronger field and a new 1.HC status.

 

It speaks volumes about the impact that Cadel Evans has had on Australian cycling that a race with his name has been established and is expected to remain an important part of the Australian summer and stay on the UCI calendar for many years to come. The inaugural edition was mostly regarded as Evans’ farewell to professional cycling but the event is much more than a single goodbye. In fact, the organizers and Evans hope that the race will grow and become a prestigious event on the international calendar and with the promotion to 1.HC they are definitely on the right track.

 

The race is part of the growing Australian summer scene that kicks off with the Bay Classics just after New Year and continues with the National Championships and the Tour Down Under. It comes as a perfect opportunity for the classics riders to test their legs while they can stay in Australia’s good weather and there’s even a chance to stay there for another week as the Jayco Herald Sun Tour now ends the series of races in a week’s time.

 

As a newly established event, the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race doesn’t have a long tradition but with its combination of short, steep climbs and potential windy conditions, it is like a Belgian classic that can suit strong sprinters or puncheurs. Last year the weather was pretty bad and it created a selective race that allowed a small group to escape on the late climbs. In the end, Gianni Meersman won the sprint from a 9-rider group, with Simon Clarke and Nathan Haas completing the podium.

 

The course

The race may be known as Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race but the course definitely doesn’t resemble the ones where Evans has taken his wins. Using a big part of the course that was used for the 2010 World Championships that was won by Thor Hushovd, there are no big climbs and the race doesn’t suit a rider of Evans’ characteristics. Instead, it takes in plenty of scenic roads along the coast and TV viewers should be able to enjoy the spectacular scenery.

 

The 174km is unchanged from last year and starts and finishes in Geelong. The first 113km consist of a big loop in the area south of the city. The first half follows the flat and windy coastal road before the riders head inland to tackle a few smaller climbs that bring them to 171m of altitude. The final 15km are mainly downhill as the riders descend back to the coast.

 

The final part of the race consists of three laps of a 20.2km circuit around Geelong which is mostly flat and doesn’t include much coastal road. The main challenge is the small climb of Challambra Crest which is less than a kilometre long and summits at the 8.1km mark. After an immediate descent, the roads are rolling all the way to the finish. There are no major technical issues with the final left-hand turn coming around a kilometre from the finish, with the final coastal road bending slightly to the left.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Last year the wind turned the race into a very hard affair and in general the outcome of the race is likely to depend a lot on the weather. For the second year in a row, it looks like we will have classics conditions for the race which can hopefully turn it into another exciting and epic affair.

 

Rain will be falling in the morning but the chance of rain will decrease throughout the day. For most of the afternoon, it will be around 25% and it is likely to be a mix of rain and sunshine. The maximum temperature will be 23 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a tailwind and then a crosswind in the crucial coastal section before they turn into a cross-headwind and a cross-tailwind in the final part of the big circuit. On the finishing circuit, it will first be a cross-tailwind and then a cross-headwind and headwind on the climb. In the finale, it will be a tailwind and a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

The race may carry Cadel Evans’ name but it is not one for stage race specialists and climbers. Instead, classics riders and sprinters should shine in the mainly flat terrain. On a calm day, there is a big chance that the sprinters will have their say but with wet and windy conditions forecasted, we can expect a much more selective affair and last year’s race is probably pretty indicative of what we can expect.

 

The dual nature of the race is clearly reflected in the line-ups. Most teams both have a sprinter and a relatively fast classics rider that can follow the attacks that are bound to be launched in the final lap. Most will revolve around Mark Cavendish and Caleb Ewan though as those two riders are clearly the fastest and nobody wants to be sprinting against them at the finish.

 

This means that most teams have an aggressive approach to the race. BMC and Katusha have no top level sprinter while Sky are aiming for the win with Ben Swift who needs the race to be as hard as possible as he is climbing well enough to follow the best. Dimension will of course ride defensively as they want to keep the Cavendish option open for as long as possible.

 

The big team is of course Orica-GreenEDGE who go into the race on the back of a very successful Tour Down Under and they have both of their stars from that race here as well. With Caleb Ewan and Simon Gerrans, they have their bases covered but it will be interesting to see how they approach things. Do they try to make the race tough or will they back Ewan? With a lot of teams keen to make the race hard, they will probably follow wheels and let the race decide things.

 

There will be a lot of crosswind in the big circuit and like last year, we will probably see a few teams that try to split things. With rain, wind and a pretty mixed field, the race could explode pretty early. There is a long headwind section in the final part which will probably allow some regrouping to take place but for some riders the race is likely to be over by the time we get to the finishing circuit. If a key rider like Cavendish misses out, the pace will be very high all the way to Geelong and this will make the race even more selective.

 

Last year the racing was very aggressive on the finishing circuit, with numerous breaks going up the road and the situation changing on numerous occasions. We should have more of the same in 2016 and it will be difficult to control things. On the final climb, the best climbers will play their cards and there is a solid chance that a small group will make it to the finish to sprint it out and a solo move even has a chance on this course.

 

On the other hand, the peloton was only nine seconds too late in 2015 and that race was pretty selective. There needs to be very good cooperation in the break and probably a few teams with more than one rider if a break wants to keep the peloton at bay. A sprint finish is still the most likely outcome but with a selective race on the cards, the bunch could be very reduced and many of the sprinters are likely to have been left behind.

 

The race suits classics riders and this naturally makes an in-form Simon Gerrans stand out. The Australian is obviously in great form and can win the race from almost every scenario. Nobody will be able to drop him on these climbs and he is even likely to take the initiative himself. He will be unrivalled in a sprint from a small group and he will be one of the favourites in a reduced bunch sprint – just recall how he beat sprinters like Giacomo Nizzolo and Ben Swift in the Tour Down Under.

 

The big issue will be to get the tactics right. If he follows the late attacks, he could be isolated unless Jack Haig is on a very good day but as no one wants to go to the finish with Gerrans, the move is likely to be brought back. That will have cost quite a bit of energy. However, he cannot gamble everything on a sprint. Finally, it is important that he doesn’t have Daryl Impey in this race and it will be up to Mathew Hayman to do the lead-out. On the other hand, he is a very experienced rider who knows how to position himself well and in a reduced bunch sprint he will still be our favorite. Of course he won’t get the chance to sprint if Ewan is still there but with bad weather, we doubt that the young Australian will be able to survive. Hence, Gerrans is our favourite.

 

We won’t rule Ewan out though. He may be known as a sprinter but he climbs much better than most other fast finishers. He was fourth at the very hard U23 Worlds in Florence and survived some tough climbing in last year’s Tour de Pologne. He still seems to lack some endurance and we expect this to be too hard for him. On the other hand, he is clearly in great form and if it comes down to a sprint finish, Cavendish will be the only rider who can beat him.

 

Sky will be very ambitious for this race which they want to win with Ben Swift who is tailor-made for his kind of classics course. The Brit was not at his best in the Tour Down Under but he was clearly at a decent level. He almost won the Coppi e Bartali last year and can handle much tougher climbing than this so he should be strong enough to survive and even follow the late climbs. His main asset is a very strong team that includes Peter Kennaugh, Luke Rowe and Salvatore Puccio who excel in this terrain. He is likely to have the best lead-out, either from a reduced bunch or a small group. On paper, he should be one of the fastest so he is an obvious favourite.

 

Mark Cavendish’s condition is a big question as he has mainly been focused on the track. He has never been climbing very well at the start of the year and with a different focus, we doubt that he will be any better this year. This race will probably be too hard for him. If he is still there at the finish though, he will have a formidable train to support him and he is the only rider with the speed to beat Ewan.

 

Dimension Data’s best cards are probably Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nathan Haas who are both good climbers and fast from a small group. The former showed very good form in the Tour Down Under and will be an obvious contender. The latter is the better climb but needs to step up his game after a disappointing race in Adelaide.

 

BMC have no clear leader for this race and so there will be room for everyone to take their chance. Danilo Wyss showed excellent form at the Tour Down Under where he was fourth in the uphill sprint in Stirling. This is a rare chance to go for himself and the race suits him down to the ground. If he can make it into a small group in the finale, he has the speed to win.

 

IAM seem to have been able to bring Leigh Howard back to his best. He may not have been sprinting that well in Adelaide but he climbed better than he has done for years. This means that he is very likely to survive the climbs and if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, he will be one of the fastest.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have a very small team that will rally around Enrico Battaglin. The Italian is not in his best form yet but this is a race that suits him. The climbing is not as tough as it was in Adelaide and if his form has improved, he has the skills to follow the late moves. He is fast enough to win a sprint from a small breakaway.

 

Trek have a two-pronged attack with Jack Bobridge and Niccolo Bonifazio. The Italian will wait for the sprint and on paper this race suits him very well. However, he has not raced yet and crashed a few weeks ago so it remains to be seen if he is competitive. Bobridge will be a danger man as he is obviously in great form but he needs to get away from the likes of Gerrans on the finishing circuit and he will naturally be a marked man.

 

Alexey Tsatevich and Daniele Colli are both fast riders that can survive the hills. However, Tsatevich is rarely fast enough to win these sprints and Colli has not done any racing yet. However, he claims to be in pretty good form. Steele von Hoff will also be a contender in a sprint but he was not climbing very well in Adelaide. Dion Smith is an interesting joker as he can climb and sprint and is in good form which he proved at his national championships.

 

For attack on the finishing circuit, look out for Peter Kennaugh, Luke Rowe, Cameron Meyer, Rohan Dennis, Pim Ligthart, Jarlinson Pantano and Adam Hansen

 

***** Simon Gerrans

**** Ben Swift, Caleb Ewan

*** Reinardt van Rensburg, Danilo Wyss, Leigh Howard

** Mark Cavendish, Nathan Haas, Enrico Battaglin, Steele von Hoff, Niccolo Bonifazio, Daniele Colli

* Alexey Tsatevich, Jack Bobridge, Peter Kennaugh, Luke Rowe, Cameron Meyer, Pim Ligthart, Jarlinson Pantano, Rohan Dennis, Dion Smith