After the Challenge Mallorca and Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, the great early-season calendar in Spain continues with a busy week that includes two one-day races and a stage race. Before we get to the stage racing in Andalucia, some of the riders will test themselves in a pair of one-day races over the weekend and while the climbers will have their say in Saturday’s Vuelta a Murcia, the sprinters will come to the fore for Sunday’s Clasica de Almeria.

 

The rich Spanish racing scene has been reduced to almost nothing and most of the stage races that once littered the calendar, have disappeared. However, the country has never been too interested in one-day racing and it is no coincidence that most of their biggest riders have been stage race specialists. This means that the one-day scene has never been very big and in fact, the sprint race Clasica de Almeria has been the only major race outside of the Basque Country for several years.

 

While the stage races have had a hard time the last few years, the Almeria race has managed to survive the tough economic times. Traditionally it has been held on the same Sunday as the Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne in between the stage races in Andalucia, Valenciana and Murcia and has offered the riders a chance to keep going between the major events.

 

After the Vuelta a Murcia has been reduced to a one-day race, the organizers have teamed up with the Murcian race which is now held on the Saturday before the Clasica de Almeria, thus offering the riders a solid weekend of racing in Spain. Until last year, they have been held after the Vuelta a Andalucia – the major early-season Spanish stage race – but now the two events have been moved to the weekend prior to the Andalusian race, thus making it a perfect warm-up for the main event of the early Spanish calendar.

 

In many ways, the Clasica de Almeria is an unusual Spanish race. It is both a one-day race and it doesn’t suit the climbers who have traditionally dominated the Spanish races. Even though there are a few climbs on the menu, it usually comes down to a bunch sprint. As the Vuelta a Murcia is a hilly affair, it means that the weekend of Spanish one-day races now has a bit for everyone: the climbers will get their chance in Murcia while the sprinters come to the fore in Almeria.

 

Last year it was Mark Cavendish who came out on top as he beat Juan Jose Lobato into second, with his lead-out man Mark Renshaw completing the podium.

 

The course

Clasica de Almeria has traditionally been a race for sprinters who can survive the potentially windy conditions and the climbs at the midpoint of the race and even though the organizers usually change the course completely from year to year, the main characteristics are the same. This year they have given the route another shake-up and it seems that it has become slightly easier than it was 12 months ago.

 

This year the riders will cover 184km around the city of Almeria which hosts both the start and the finish. Right from the start, they will head to the west where they find some windy plains and hillier terrain. After a flat opening part, the category 3 Alto de Los Atajuelillos is on the menu, with the summit located at the 52km mark.

 

The descent leads to the coast where the riders face potentially windy conditions before they again head into the hills for the hardest part of the course. The category 3 Alto La Alqueria and Alto Fuente Toro come in quick succession between the 95.9 and 112.8km marks.

 

After the third climb of the day, the riders again descend to the coast and then travel back towards Almeria. This time they will follow the coastal road all the way and not head inlands as they did on the way out. Nonetheless, there’s the category 3 Alto de Almerimar to overcome before they get to the final 32.1km that are completely flat. After following the coastal road back to Almeria, they end the race by doing two laps of 3.5km finishing circuit that includes four turns, the final one coming 1400m from the line.

 

 

 

The weather

Sunday is forecasted to be another day with beautiful sunshine and a pleasant maximum temperature of 19 degrees. However, the wind which has often played a role in the Clasica de Almeria looms as a threat as it will be a windy day with a strong wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mostly have a headwind in the first half of the race and a tailwind in the second half but there will be several crosswind sections along the way. Most notably, there will be a cross-tailwind in the final coastal section before the riders turn into a crosswind in the finale.

 

The favourites

Many riders do both the Vuelta a Murcia and the Clasica de Almeria but the line-up still has a markedly different feel. While many of the climbers will take a well-deserved rest to prepare for the Vuelta a Andalucia, the sprinters mostly skipped the race in Murcia to be ready for their highlight: Sunday’s race in Almeria. This means that most of the teams have substituted one or two climbers with fast finishers and lead-out men to be ready for the flatter course in Almeria.

 

As a result most teams go into this race with the plan to set up a bunch sprint and very often that is enough to make it come down to that outcome. The major teams will mostly be riding to bring it back together for the fast finishers to battle it out and that tips the balance towards the sprinters.

 

In the past, it has been possible for one or more teams to ride very fast up the climbs and so get rid of some of the sprinters but this year the amount of climbing is not very big, even less than last years. Furthermore, most of the sprinters in this race climb solidly so it is hard to imagine that the difference will be made on the climbs. A sprinter like Matteo Pelucchi may get into difficulty if Movistar or BMC decide to test their rivals on the ascents but that’s not where the real danger lies.

 

The big threat will be the very strong wind which has often split this race. With a combination of tailwind and cross-tailwind in the second half, we expect the race to split up. The first part will mainly have a headwind so when the early break has formed it should be pretty uneventful. Cofidis, Direct Energie, IAM and Movistar will probably take responsibility for the chase but some teams may try to go a bit harder up the climbs.

 

The real test comes in the second half when the wind will make the peloton very nervous and echelons can be formed. This will make it impossible for any kind of breakaway to make it to the finish and there is little doubt that the race will be decided in some kind of sprint as it has been done every year since 2007. However, we doubt that it will be a full bunch that is left by the time the riders get to Almeria at the end of the day.

 

One of the riders that are likely to be there is Bryan Coquard. The young Frenchman has had a fabulous start to the year as he won two stages at the Etoile de Besseges in extremely dominant fashion. Furthermore, he underlined his good form by mixing it up with the climbers and classics riders in the queen stage until he ultimately got dropped in the finale. He was not only winning the sprints in Besseges – he was doing so by a very big margin.

 

The climbing won’t be a challenge for Coquard and he is surrounded by a strong team that includes and in-form Sylvain Chavanel to keep him protected in the crosswind. He has always been extremely fast but this year he seems to have stepped up his level a further notch. His weakness has been his poor positioning but this year Adrien Petit has done a great job as his new lead-out man. In this race, the sprint is likely to be less hectic as the field is smaller and the crosswind is likely to have created a selection. This will make it easier to get the positioning right. He still doesn’t have the best lead-out train in the race but if Petit can drop him off in a good position, he seems to be very hard to beat these days. That makes Coquard our favourite to win the race.

 

Nacer Bouhanni has not had much luck yet. He came up short in Mallorca and he failed to win in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana. The latter race must have been hugely frustrating as his team completely dominated the lead-outs but he was simply beaten by faster sprinters.

 

Bouhanni doesn’t seem to have his usual speed yet but he is still one of the fastest riders in this field. Furthermore, he is very good at positioning himself in the crosswind and he is an excellent climber. In general, he benefits from the tough conditions. He doesn’t have the strong lead-out that he had in Valencia but with the likes of Borut Bozic, Cyril Lemoine, Julien Simon and Hugo Hofstetter at his side, he will probably only be outpaced by IAM in the finale. The combination of a good lead-out and a hard race makes Bouhanni a very strong contender.

 

Juan Jose Lobato often struggles in the bunch sprints because he rarely gets the positioning right. However, he has always done well in Almeria where the sprints are less hectic. He proved his form by dominating the queen stage at the Dubai Tour but until now he has not been in contention in a single bunch sprint in 2016 as he has been out of position every time.

 

In Almeria, Lobato is surrounded by a very strong team which will keep him protected in the crosswind so he should make the selection. Furthermore, the windy conditions will make the bunch smaller and this should make it easier for him to get to the front. Unfortunately, he and Jose Joaquin Rojas have often done separate sprints instead of combining forces. However, if they change tactics for this race, Lobato can actually count on a solid lead-out with Rojas and Alejandro Valverde. He is amazingly fast and has the speed to beat everyone here. Lobato will be a very strong contender in what could be a reduced bunch sprint.

 

IAM are here with a formidable sprint team that is ready to set Matteo Pelucchi up for the victory. There is little doubt that they have the strongest train and Pelucchi is probably the fastest rider in the race. That ought to be a winning combination but we have not been impressed by Pelucchi. He was riding really poorly at the Tour Down Under and was even forced to abandon prematurely as he was simply not in shape. He bounced back with a second place behind Coquard in Besseges but he still doesn’t seem to be at his best. The combination of climbs and wind will make this race pretty hard and we fear that this will take the best out of Pelucchi and make it hard to beat the classy sprinters in this race. However, if his condition has improved and he is close to his former level, his strong lead-out should make him win this race.

 

If Pelucchi is dropped, IAM have a back-up plan. Leigh Howard proved that he is back to his best in Australia where he climbed extremely well. He also did some decent sprints, winning the battle for second behind Kennaugh at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. He will be ready to step in if Pelucchi fails. He is not as fast the best sprinters but the lead-out train can take him far.

 

Roompot are here with Raymond Kreder who sprinted really well in Valencia where only Dylan Groenewegen was faster in the final stage. He can count on a solid support crew that includes his brother Michel, Nick van der Lijke and Maurits Lammertink. The Dutch team are not among the strongest though and could come up in the crosswind but if he is still there, he will be one of the best.

 

As said, Movistar often allow both Lobato and Rojas to do their own sprints and this opens the door for the latter. He rarely comes out on top but at the end of hard race, he can’t be ruled out. Caja Rural have Carlos Barbero but he is not fast enough to win this flat sprint and it still remains to be seen whether he has recovered from his crash in Besseges. Other sprinters include Alexei Tsatevich, Bert Van Lerberghe, Bartlomiej Matysiak, Arman Kamysev, Pawel Franczak and Romain Maikin.

 

If the wind really blows the race to pieces, we may get a very select group of classics riders and this could open the door for riders like Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel who are both fast from a small group.

 

***** Bryan Coquard

**** Nacer Bouhanni, Juan Jose Lobato

*** Matteo Pelucchi, Raymond Kreder, Leigh Howard

** Jose Joaquin Rojas, Carlos Barbero, Alexei Tsatevich, Philippe Gilbert

* Bartlomiej Matysiak, Bert Van Lerberghe, Sylvain Chavanel, Arman Kamysev, Pawel Franczak, Romain Maikin