After a one-year absence, the traditional Criterium du Dauphiné prologue is back but this year there won’t be any chance for the prologue specialists on the opening day. For the first time since the 2013 Tour de Romandie, a major bike race will kick off with a mountain prologue and the brutally steep Mont Chery will already give a very big indication of who’s on form for the traditional dress rehearsal for the Tour de France and create significant time gaps right from the start of the 8-day race.

 

The course

After the 2015 race started with a road stage, the Criterium du Dauphiné will be back to tradition in 2014 as the prologue returns for 2016. However, there won’t be any kind of similarity between the usual, relatively flat opener and the stage that will get things going this year. For the first time in recent history, the riders will face a mountain prologue as the 4km stage consists of the brutally steep climb of Mont Chery in Les Gets on the outskirts of Morzine. Mountain prologues are somewhat of a rarity in professional cycling and in recent history, only the Tour de Romandie has had a similar stage in 2013.

 

The 4km stage starts in the centre of Les Gets which is a small city close to Morzine. It’s a pretty straightforward stage as it simply consists of the 4km ascent that has no less than 11 hairpin bends over the short distance. It averages a massive 9.7% and has a very steep middle section. After a relatively easy first 500m, the riders will get to a 9.2% section and then the gradient doesn’t drop below the 10% mark. The next two kilometres average 10.9% and 12.8% respectively and then the climbs levels out at 6.7% in the finale.

 

As said, mountain prologues are rarities in the cycling world and it can only really be compared to the prologue of the 2013 Tour de Romandie. However, that stage was longer and the climb was easier with some flat sections along the way. Chris Froome won the stage by putting six seconds into Andrew Talansky, 13 seconds into Robert Kiserlovski, 15 seconds into Richie Porte and 16 seconds into Rui Costa, with only 17 riders finishing within 30 seconds of the Brit.

 

Les Gets last hosted a stage in 2011 when Christophe Kern made a late attack to hold off Chris Anker Sørensen by 7 seconds while the favourites were two seconds further adrift. Back then, it did not finish on the Mont Chery.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

France has had some bad weather recently and unfortunately it seems that the Criterium du Dauphiné won’t be spared. Sunday is set to be a rainy day as there’s a 75% chance of rain throughout the entire afternoon. There will be a maximum temperature of 17 degrees in Les Gets where the prologue will be held.

 

There will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind on the climb. The wind is not expected to change so the riders are expected to have similar conditions for their rides.

 

The favourites

When the course for the Criterium du Dauphiné was announced, it was striking to see that it offered no less than four summit finishes. However, it wasn’t any of the big mountain stages that got all the attention. Instead, it was the shortest stage of the race, the 4km prologue in Les Gets, that everybody was focused on. The concept of a mountain prologue is a simple one but for some reason they rarely feature in the major bike races and so they always create a bit of hype when they occur. That was the case when the 2013 Tour de Romandie kicked off with such a stage and it is the same for the 2016 Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

Due to its rare occurrence, a mountain prologue is a very special discipline and we haven’t many previous stages to use as a gauge for the battle in Les Gets. As said, only the 2013 Tour de Romandie has had a recent stage recently and the climb in that race was easier and had more flat sections. Mont Chery is a real beast as it leaves no room for recovery and has some very steep sections. The climb may only be four kilometres long but on such gradients, big time gaps can be created.

 

A mountain prologue is a bit like a mountain time trial in the sense that it’s a stage for climbers, not for TT specialists. In this kind of effort, TT skills mean nothing and it is all about climbing legs. Hence, the pure climbers will come to the fore. At the same time, it’s a very short effort that rewards explosiveness more than endurance. It is no wonder that a riders like Ivan Basso has never done well in mountain time trials as even an 11km climb is way too short for him to get his big diesel engine going. A mountain prologue is even shorter so some of the less explosive climbers will come up short and suffer a significant time loss in this stage. As opposed to this, some of the explosive Ardennes specialists can do well in this kind of effort even if they will suffer in the longer climbs later in the race.

 

This means that we can expect an interesting battle between the pre-race favourites like Chris Froome, Alberto Contador and Richie Porte whose excellent climbing skills will naturally bring them to the fore in this kind of stage, and explosive youngster like Adam Yates and Julian Alaphilippe who can create a surprise on a course like this. Meanwhile, it will be hard for less explosive riders like Pierre Rolland and Ryder Hesjedal who need longer climbs and stages to prove their strength.

 

The weather could be a factor. As the stage is entirely uphill, wet roads won’t have the same impact as they would have in a normal prologue but slippery roads can force riders to stay in the saddle. Furthermore, the kind of thunderstorms that are forecasted are often accompanied by strong gusts of wind so the riders that are unfortunate to ride in the rain, may also have to handle a much stronger headwind. That can have a significant impact on the outcome of the stage. However, it’s impossible to say when the showers will hit Les Gets so it’s a bit of a lottery for the riders to choose when to start. In any case, it’s important to remember that the outcome of this stage can really be influenced by the weather.

 

When the 2013 Tour de Romandie kicked off with a mountain prologue, Chris Froome crushed the opposition and the Brit also stands out as the favourite for this stage. After all, the Brit is the best climber in the world and even though he obviously prefers longer climbs and real mountains, he has often proved his explosiveness on shorter climbs. In fact, Froome has a decent kick as he has often proved in uphill sprints and it is worth remembering that he would probably have won the Mur de Huy stage at last year’s Tour if he hadn’t allowed Tony Gallopin to open a gap behind Joaquim Rodriguez.

 

The main question is of course Froome’s form. The Brit hasn’t been racing since the Tour de Romandie but there is no reason to be too concerned. Froome has followed the same schedule every year since 2013 and he has always come out with all guns blazing for the Dauphiné. His training camp in Tenerife always puts him in a good place for the summer and he has proved that he doesn’t need any racing to be ready to go for the win. Two years ago the race also kicked off with a short time trial with a small climb and back then Froome easily rode to victory. In this kind of stage, he will have less of an advantage compared to the pure climbers but the stage still suits a great climber like Froome who knows how to gauge his effort on this kind of ascent. Froome may not have been the dominant figure he was in 2013 and 2014 but in Romandie he was better than he was 12 months ago. If he has continued to build on that base, he should again be able to kick off the Dauphiné with a win.

 

His big rival will of course be Alberto Contador. Like Froome, the Spaniard prefers longer and harder stages but this kind of prologue is still a good one for the Spaniard. While he hasn’t been able to maintain his high level in the flat time trials since he returned from suspension, he is still one of the best in the world on hilly courses. He has proved that on several occasions, most recently in Pais Vasco where he faced a very tough time trial with a brutal wall in the first part. Back then, he crushed the opposition on the climb, putting 30 seconds into a climber like Thibaut Pinot, and then opted for safety on the descent. This time it will be all about climbing and so there is no reason for a cautious approach.

 

As Contador hasn’t raced since Pais Vasco, his form is of course a bit of a question mark. All year, however, the Spaniard has claimed to have had the same feelings as he had in 2014 when he claims to have been better than ever. Back then, he gave Froome a run for his money in the prologue and Contador will have a much better chance in this stage than he had on the flatter course two years ago. Everything suggests that Contador is on track for a great Tour and he would love to kick off his summer campaign by beating Froome in this stage.

 

Richie Porte is the third best climber in this race and we are very curious to see what he can do in a head-to-head battle with Contador and Froome. The mountain prologue is the first big test and it’s a stage that suits the Australian well. He is a great climber and has a solid punch as he has proved with his powerful victories on Willunga Hill at the Tour Down Under. For the first time this year, he goes into a stage race on the back of a solid preparation and he is pleased to see how things are coming together for the summer. That’s a pretty scary prospect for his rivals as he had a very good spring despite never being at 100% of his health. Last year he dominated the week-long stage races and matched Alberto Contador pedal stroke for pedal stroke in the Giro until he crashed out of the race. If he has the same legs here, it’s definitely not impossible for him to win the prologue.

 

As said, explosiveness will be important in this stage and this naturally puts Adam Yates in the mix. The Australian was ill in the spring and so he never got the chance to prove what he can do. However, he had one standout ride. Despite not being known as a time triallist, he did a fantastic TT in Pais Vasco where the hilly course was more about explosive climbing skills than TT power. Yates benefited maximally from that and proved how strong he is on short, steep climbs. He did the same when he beat all the stars at the Clasica San Sebastian. He no longer has any health issues and if he is at 100%, he is faster than almost everybody on this kind of climb. Yates could really give the favourites a run for their money in this stage.

 

Sky are here to win the race with Chris Froome but they have at least two more riders who can be among the very best in this stage. One of them is Wout Poels who still gets better and better. It all culminated with his Liege win which crowned a marvelous spring season that also saw him dominate the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana. Poels is a great climber for the high mountains but his bread and butter is really the short, steep climbs. That’s where he has excelled in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Fleche Wallonne, Valencia and the Vuelta a Espana and so Mont Chery is tailor-made for him. His form is a bit uncertain as he has been training at altitude with Froome and he doesn’t have the same kind of history as his captain when it comes to building form only by training. However, he has come out flying on several occasions in the past and we won’t be surprised if he is part of a dominant Sky showing in the prologue.

 

Sergio Henao is another Sky rider who is tailor-made for his stage. The Colombian has been on inactive status since April which of course raises some questions about his form. However, when he returned from a similar break at the 2014 Tour de Suisse, he was flying right from the start and as he has always been motivated by the prospect of Tour de France selection, we expect him to have maintained his form. In the last two years, Henao has been the best on the short, steep climbs in Pais Vasco which are pretty similar to Mont Chery and if he is on fire, he will be faster than almost everybody in the prologue.

 

Thibaut Pinot has been one of the best climbers in 2016 and he continues to build on his progress. This year he has added an extra level to his TT skills and he has already won two time trials. On paper, his climbing skills should bring him far in a stage that is all about climbing legs and we have little doubt that he is great form as has been on fire since February. However, Pinot is a bit more of a diesel engine than most of his rivals and this climb could be a bit too short for him. We have little doubt that he will be among the best in this stage but it will be hard for him to win.

 

Fabio Aru is one of the big question marks for this race. On one hand, the Italian is an excellent climber who has the right explosiveness to do well here. On the other hand, he has had a poor season and he has never been at his best in his preparation races. The desire to prove his status as Astana captain for the Tour will be an extra motivation but we have doubts that he is at 100% yet. After all, history clearly shows that he needs a bit of racing to reach his best form.

 

Julian Alaphilippe is not a pure climber and he is expected to suffer when we get to the real mountains later in the race. However, this kind of short, steep climb is tailor-made for the Frenchman who proved his class in the Tour of California where he almost sprinted up the steep Gibraltar Road. His form is likely to have improved since then and this makes him a great contender for this kind of stage. The sky is the limit for Alaphilippe and he could very well deliver another major surprise here.

 

His teammate Daniel Martin is one of the worst time triallists among the GC riders. However, this stage is completely different from a traditional TT. Martin is one of the best in the world on a short, steep climb and this could turn him into a contender for this stage. He hasn’t raced since the classics but he is usually in good form for the Dauphiné so this stage offers him a rare chance to do well in a time trial.

 

On paper, Mikel Landa is one of the best climbers in this race but nobody knows how the Basque is going. After all, he had to abandon the Giro d’Italia with illness and it remains to be seen how he has recovered. On the other hand, his form was progressing nicely in the Italian grand tour and it is unlikely to have disappeared completely. This kind of stage may be a bit too short to suit him perfectly but if he is close to his best form, his climbing legs should make a huge difference.

 

Romain Bardet is definitely not a TT specialist but he has shown nice progress on the hillier courses. Last year he did a very good time trial in Romandie and he should be even more comfortable on this course. The Frenchman seems to have taken another step in 2016 and is ready to finally prove what he can do after he fell ill in Romandie. He is usually very strong in this race and he is good on relatively short climbs. He won’t win the stage but he should do well.

 

Louis Vervaeke could be another surprise in this stage. The Belgian climbing talent has had a troubled start to his pro career but now he is finally proving his talent. He was riding very well in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he turned out to be one of the best climbers and he was on track for a great Tour de Romandie when he fell ill and had to leave the race while being in the form of his life. In that race, he did a very good prologue where he was faster than anybody else on the short climb in the first half of the course which proves that he can do well in such a stage. He has been training at altitude so we will have to see how he has recovered from that but if he has the form he had in the spring, he could very well deliver another surprise here.

 

Finally, we will point to Sebastien Reichenbach and Diego Rosa. Both are here to work as lieutenants but in this stage they will be allowed to prove what they can do. Both have improved massively in the last few months. Rosa was brutally strong last autumn and after some health issues, he was getting better for the Ardennes. Reichenbach has been on fire all year and has almost been as strong as his leader Pinot on the climbs. Neither Rosa nor Reichenbach is known as TT specialists but they have both done surprisingly good time trials this year. This course should give them the right terrain to prove their class.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

Outsiders: Adam Yates, Wout Poels, Thibaut Pinot, Sergio Henao

Jokers: Fabio Aru, Julian Alaphilippe, Dan Martin, Mikel Landa, Romain Bardet, Louis Vervaeke, Diego Rosa, Sebastien Reichenbach