Alberto Contador gave Chris Froome a mental blow by riding to a dominant win in the prologue and the Brit will be left wondering what he can do against the strong Spaniard in the high mountains. For now, however, the GC riders will head into survival mode as the sprinters prepare themselves for an unusually flat opening road stage of the mountainous French race.

 

The course

The Criterium du Dauphiné never has any completely flat stages which explains why the pure sprinters never head to France for the Alpine race. However, the race usually has one or two opportunities for the fast guys, especially those who can handle a bit of climbing. Even though the format is no longer as fixed as it once was, the race will return to tradition for 2016 as the first road stage is one of those chances and in fact the opening road stage is much easier than usual, meaning that all the fast guys should be there to battle it out in the end.

 

The 186km stage brings the riders from Cluses on the outskirts of the Alps to Saint-Vulbas in the flat part of the region. That’s reflected in the nature of the stage as the first part is lumpy while the second part is flat. Travelling in a southwesterly direction, the riders will tackle the category 4 climbs of Cote de Mornex (1.6km, 6.4%), Cote de Allenoves (1.3km, 5.7%) and Cote de Chilly (1.6km 7.3%) during the first 75km before they descend to the flat part of the stage.

 

From there they will continue in a southwesterly direction until they get to the small category 4 climb of Cote de Premeyzel (0.9km, 6.6%) at the 134km mark. Here they will turn to the northwest and head to the finish along flat roads. Inside the final 5km, there are three roundabouts in quick succession and then two sharp turns that lead to the 1300m finishing straight on a 6km wide, flat road.

 

Saint-Vulbas has not hosted a stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné in recent years but almost every year it hosts one of the two sprint stages at the mountainous Tour de l’Ain. Last year Nacer Bouhanni was the fastest while Gianni Meersman won in 2014. In 2012, Omega Pharma-Quick Step won a rare team time trial here and it was Jimmy Casper who won the sprint in 2011. Stephane Poulhies was the fastest in 2010.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were lucky to avoid the rain in today’s stage and they don’t have to worry about wet conditions for tomorrow at all. Monday is forecasted to be sunny with a maximum temperature at the finish of 25 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind as a light breeze will be blowing from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind for most of the day before they will turn into a headwind after the final climb. Then another crosswind section will bring them to the finishing city where there will be a cross-headwind until the riders take the two turns before the flamme rouge. From there it will be a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

Alberto Contador went into the race with his usual pre-race comments about not riding for victory and focusing only on his preparation for the Tour de France. However, the Spaniard has clearly changed his approach to the French race in recent years. In his heydays, his words were definitely true as he never went full gas in the Alps so close to the start of the Tour. However, since Chris Froome has emerged as his big rival, it has been evident that the Dauphiné is a very important chance to deal his rival a mental blow and find out where he stands compared to the reigning Tour champion.

 

Hence, Contador could hardly hide his satisfaction after today’s prologue which fully confirmed that the rumours of his great form were not unfounded. Contador has always been one of the best in the world in hilly time trials and this kind of short effort probably suits him better than Froome. Hence, it was no big surprise that he beat the Brit. What must be more concerning in the British camp is the winning margin. 13 seconds in such a short stage is a lot and even though he claims to be satisfied, Froome must be a bit worried. After all, he has not delivered a top performance in a direct battle against his biggest rivals all year and only his beautiful solo win in the queen stage of the Tour de Romandie can partly make up for what has been a disappointing sprint.

 

At the same time, the prologue proved that Richie Porte belongs to the group of the very best climbers in the world. It has always been evident that he can be up there with the very best and he will be a strong overall contender in this race, especially if Froome and Contador are too focused on each other. There is no doubt that he will be on fire at the Tour de France and now he just needs to prove that he can maintain that level for three weeks.

 

As we had said yesterday, the stage was perfect for explosive climbers like Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Wout Poels and Adam Yates who all lived up to our predictions from yesterday. At the same time, we were right in pointing out that the stage was too short for Thibaut Pinot. The Frenchman had a disappointing ride but he was never going to do well here and it is too early to write him off. As we also pointed out, Fabio Aru and Joaquim Rodriguez are never good in their preparation races so their poor performances are no surprise.

 

There was more reason to be happy for diesel engines like Ryder Hesjedal and Daniel Navarro who did surprisingly well in such a short effort. Diego Rosa also fully confirmed his potential and could very well get his chance to lead Astana in this race. Finally, Enrico Gasparotto did a marvelous prologue and the in-form Italian will be one to watch in the hilly second and third stages.

 

For now, the GC riders have some time to reflect on their gains and losses as the GC battle will be on hold until Friday. The next four stages are for the sprinters and the classics specialists and it will be the fastmen who have the first opportunity. Tomorrow’s stage is unusually flat for a Dauphiné stage and so it is a rare chance even for the pure sprinters to do well.

 

Stage 3 is a tricky one so the sprinters know that they have only two guaranteed opportunities in this race. As Cofidis, Katusha and Giant-Alpecin are here mainly for the sprints, there is no chance that they will let this chance slip away. Everybody knows that so we expect the break to be formed almost straight from the gun as there’s nog real incentive to go on the attack. The mountains jersey is of course a great motivation and we can expect riders from the French teams, the wild card teams and Lampre-Merida and of course Daniel Teklehaimanot (Dimension Data) to be part of the break.

 

Tinkoff won’t have to do much to defend the jersey and it will be left to Cofidis and Katusha to lead the chase. Bora-Argon 18 and Giant-Alpecin may lend them a hand but it will mainly be left to Bouhanni’s and Kristoff’s teams to control the stage. They are definitely strong enough to do so and should easily bring it back together for a sprint.

 

The sprint is not very technical as there are two turns pretty far from the finish. The finishing straight is long and there will be a cross-tailwind so it’s a real power sprint. However, the road is pretty narrow so positioning will be crucial if you want to have any chance to show your speed.

 

The battle will be an interesting one as Bouhanni is probably the fastest sprinter while Kristoff has the best train. Already last year, the train Marco Haller-Jacopo Guarnieri-Kristoff completely dominated the sprints in the Tour de France and this year they have mostly continued their success rate. Michael Mørkøv has slotted into the position between Haller and Guarnieri and that has only made the train stronger so we expect them to take control in the finale.

 

Cofidis also have a solid train. Borut Bozic-Geoffrey Soupe-Christophe Laporte-Nacer Bouhanni is a good formation – at least on paper. However, they have not always done things right. They failed massively in Dunkirk where the pair of Petit-Coquard made them look like amateurs. They did better in Picardie but they don’t work as efficiently and is the same kind of guarantee as the Katusha train.

 

We doubt that Cofidis will be able to match Katusha so it will all come down to Bouhanni’s position in the finale. There is little doubt that Kristoff and Bouhanni are the fastest riders in the race and if Kristoff is given the perfect lead-out, Bouhanni is probably the only rider with the speed to come around. If Bouhanni is on Kristoff’s wheel in the finale, the scene is set for an interesting battle of speed in this power sprint.

 

We will put our money on Bouhanni. The Frenchman is usually faster than Kristoff in a pure bunch sprint like this one and after a slow start to his summer campaign in Dunkirk, he has gradually built up his speed. He is usually riding really well at the Dauphiné and we expect him to be close to his best form. The sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly as he would have preferred more technical challenges but he is still very fast in a power sprint like this. It will all come down to his position. If Soupe and Laporte can drop him off on Kristoff’s wheel, we expect Bouhanni to win the stage.

 

If Bouhanni is not there, Kristoff will be ready to strike. As said, he has the best train and we expect him to be able to start his sprint from the perfect position. He likes this kind of power sprint and the narrow road is an advantage for him as it will be harder for his rivals to find a gap. However, we were not very impressed by his sprinting in California where he was nearly beaten by Sagan in stage 7 after the Slovakian had been on the attack all day and he was nowhere near Cavendish in the final stage. Furthermore, he only drifted backwards in the sprint on stage 1. Of course his condition is better now and he has the best train but he probably needs Bouhanni to be out of position to win the stage.

 

Trek are in a big of a dilemma as they can both go for Niccolo Bonifazio and Edward Theuns. The latter has just won a stage at the Belgium Tour but the former nearly beat Marcel Kittel in Romandie. In the past, they have not always managed to select a clear leader like in Scheldeprijs where sports director Dirk Demol was frustrated that they both sprinted to top 10 results-

 

It’s hard to say who will be the protected rider. Theuns has the form but Bonifazio is the fastest. If we were to choose, we would go with the Italian as he is the only one with the speed to challenge Kristoff and Bouhanni. He was agonizingly close to beating Kittel in Romandie and has been sprinting well all year. If Theuns can set him up for the sprint, he has the speed to win this stage.

 

This race is a big test for John Degenkolb who has been forced to change his sprinting style following the training accident. He showed clear signs of improvement in California where he climbed really well and sprinted to a fine fifth place on the final stage. He likes this kind of power sprint and with Zico Waytens, Ramon Sinkeldam and Koen De Kort, he has a train that can take on Katusha. However, Degenkolb has never been good at keeping up with his teammates and this is unlikely to have become better after the crash. On this narrow road, he may suffer to stay with his train and we doubt that he will be in a position to sprint. However, if he can find a gap, he is obviously one of the fastest.

 

The same goes for Sam Bennett who has an amazing turn of speed. However, the Irishman very often loses contact with his teammates and so he rarely gets the chance to show what he can do. In this race, he doesn’t even have much support as Shane Archbold is the only rider from his usual train here. That is probably too little to get into a position to sprint but if he is there, he could very well win the stage.

 

Moreno Hofland is not a rider for the real bunch kicks but he sprinted better than ever at the Giro d’Italia. He didn’t have the best lead-out and so often had to come from far back but he was one of the fastest in the Italian race. In this race, he has the support of Dennis van Winden who is a great lead-out man and so Hofland will have a much better chance. He had to abandon the Giro but if he has maintained his form, he should do very well here.

 

If Trek decides to go for him, Edward Theuns should do well. The Belgian won a stage in the Belgium Tour which was a big goal for him and he is in excellent condition. Furthermore, he is great at positioning and if he has Bonifazio for support, he should do well. However, he is probably not fast enough to win.

 

Jens Debusschere is still building form after his crash at Gent-Wevelgem. He rode well in Picardie but didn’t have much luck in the Belgium Tour. Now he hopes to get his chance here but it will be difficult as he only has Kris Boeckmans for support. That’s probably not enough for the Belgian who is up against faster rivals. However, he is still one of the fastest here so he can definitely sprint onto the podium if he gets into the right position.

 

Simon Gerrans is targeting the stages later in the week but he will probably give it a try here too. The Australian has won bunch sprints in similar races in the past but the level here is too high for him to win such an easy stage. However, he has a formidable train with the likes of Jens Keukeleire, Mitchell Docker and Daryl Impey and that’s a massive advantage on such a narrow road. He won’t win the stage but he can definitely be up there.

 

Samuel Dumoulin seems to be in the form of his life as he arrives at this race on the back of back-to-back victories last weekend. However, the Frenchman is not a rider for a power sprint like this one and usually needs harder finales to excel. He is good at positioning though and he has the form to be up there. He can make use of his good condition to achieve a top 5.

 

Like Dumoulin and Gerrans, Edvald Boasson Hagen is not a rider for a big sprint like this. However, he will definitely give it a go and can count on solid support from Youcef Reguigui. He showed his good form at the Tour of Norway and so he can do well here even though he is not fast enough to win.

 

Finally, Jonas Van Genechten deserves a mention. IAM also have Sondre Holst Enger but for a real sprint like this, the Belgian will be their protected rider. He has never been able to confirm his potential with the Swiss team but his form seemed to be good at the Belgium Tour. He has won a WorldTour sprint in the past and even though he is no longer as fast as he was back then, he will be a solid contender for this stage.

 

If you are looking for more sprinters, Greg Van Avermaet, Anthony Roux, William Bonnet, Julian Alaphilippe, Alexey Lutsenko, Francisco Ventoso, Tony Hurel, Alex Howes, Enrico Gasparotto and Federico Zurlo could all try their hand in a stage like this.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Niccolo Bonifazio

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Sam Bennett, Moreno Hofland, Edward Theuns

Jokers: Jens Debusschere, Simon Gerrans, Samuel Dumoulin, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jonas Van Genechten