While Nacer Bouhanni continued his love affair with the Criterium du Dauphiné, the GC riders enjoyed a relaxed ride in the sun on the first stage to prepare themselves for the first uphill finish of the race. However, stage 2 will be another day to stay safe as a relatively easy final climb means that the puncheurs and classics specialists are looking forward to battling it out in an uphill sprint at the end of the second stage.

 

The course

After one day of survival, the GC riders will face their first uphill finish on stage 2 which finishes at 1114m above sea level. However, the stage takes place in the lumpy Massif Central north of Saint-Etienne and not in the Alps and it won’t be a day to make a difference as it’s a stage more for puncheurs and classics riders. The long uphill drag to the line won’t be hard enough to launch a decisive attack but several riders will have their eyes on a victory on a stage that suits their explosive climbing skills well.

 

The 168km stage will bring the riders from Creches-sur Saone to Chalmazel Jeansagniere as the riders will travel in a southwesterly direction through lumpy terrain all day. Almost right from the start, the will go up the category 3 Col de Durbize (4.5km, 4.8%) and then there’s another uncategorized ascent before the riders get to the category 2 Col de la Croix Nicelle (5.6km, 6.5%). After the descent, the terrain gets significantly flatter and there are no major challenges until the peloton will get to the bottom of the final climb.

 

The final challenge can be split into two parts. It’s actually a climb of more than 21km but the organizers have divided it into a category 2 and a category 3 climb, with a relatively flat section in between. The category 2 climb of Cote de Saint-Georges-en-Couzan averages 5.6% over 7.5km and is a very regular ascent. The next 7.5km are mostly slightly uphill with a small descent along the way and lead to the 6.8km category 3 climb that ends the stage. It averages just 3.7% and is hardest at the bottom and in the end. The first three kilometres have gradients of 4-6% and then two flat kilometres lead to the final kilometre which averages 6.4%. The final 200m are very slightly downhill. It’s a winding road with no sharp turns. The final gradual bend lends onto the 200m finishing straight on a 6m wide road.

 

Chalmazel Jeansagniere has not hosted a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had perfect conditions for today’s stage but they are unlikely to have the same luck tomorrow. Tuesday is forecasted to be rainy and there is almost 100% chance of rain late in the afternoon. At the finish, a total amount of 15mm is forecated. The maximum temperature will be 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the stage. In the second half of the afternoon, it will come from the west which means that it will be a cross-headwind in the finale. That’s also the case for the final climb until the riders will turn into a combination of a tail- and a crosswind with 2km to go. It will be a crosswind in the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

It was frustrating that we never got the chance to see the direct battle between Nacer Bouhanni and Alexander Kristoff. As expected, the Katusha train proved to be in a class of its own and they were ready to deliver Kristoff in the perfect position. However, he was slightly boxed in and lost a few pedal strokes which cost him the speed needed to compete for the win. From there, the outcome was never in doubt as Bouhanni was clearly the fastest.

 

The win must be reassuring for Bouhanni. He both proved that he still has the speed to beat all the sprinters here and the Cofidis train worked much better than they did in Dunkirk. Of course they were unable to match Katusha but when Geoffrey Soupe had gone to the front, Christophe Laporte did a great job to drop Bouhanni off on Kristoff’s wheel. That’s the way they have to approach the sprints at the Tour as they don’t have the power to match the trains of Katusha, Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep but if they can combine Laporte’s and Soupe’s strength with Bouhanni’s excellent positioning skills, the Frenchman can get far in the Tour.

 

For Kristoff, it was a frustrating experience as he maybe has to wait until Thursday to get another chance. He hopes that he will be able to survive the late climb on Wednesday but the next guaranteed sprint finish is in stage four.

 

The GC riders had a relatively easy day in the very controlled first stage and can now prepare themselves for a harder test tomorrow. Stage 2 offers the first uphill finish but it’s not a day for the main contenders to make a difference. This is a day for the punchy classics riders that excel in an uphill sprint and the field is loaded with riders that specialize in this kind of finish. For those riders, this stage is the biggest goal of the entire race but with such a strong line-up, it will be a fiercely contested battle. Meanwhile, the GC riders have to stay attentive as there will be splits in the final kilometre which is uphill at around 6%.

 

Today Tinkoff didn’t have to do much work as Katusha, Cofidis and Giant-Alpecin did most of the job to bring the early break back. They have done nothing to hide that they won’t do too much to defend the jersey and they will probably be pleased to see a break stay away even if it costs them the jersey. This should make more riders keen to go on the attack as it’s less obvious who’s going to control the stage than it was in today’s stage.

 

Today the break went straight from the gun but that’s unlikely to happen tomorrow. It’s a pretty tough start and even though an escapee is unlikely to pick up enough points to take the mountains jersey, it should inspire some strong riders to go on the attack. That should set the scene for an aggressive start. On the other hand, many of the riders that can really do some damage in this terrain have their eyes on the finale and they will be keen to save energy for later. Hence, the break will probably be made up of riders from some of the French teams, Wanty-Groupe Gobert, Bora-Argon 18, IAM and Lampre-Merida. It would be no surprise if Thomas Voeckler makes his first attack tomorrow.

 

When the break has gone clear, Tinkoff will take control and then it will be very interesting to see who takes charge. The stage is a big goal for Dimension Data who are here for stage wins, and Orica-GreenEDGE who are here with both stage win and the GC as the goal. Etixx-QuickStep may also lend a hand as may Wanty-Groupe Gobert if they have no rider in the break. BMC have Greg Van Avermaet but as they are mostly here for Porte, they will probably keep their powder dry for later.

 

However, Orica-GreenEDGE and Dimension Data have enough firepower to control the stage so it should come down to a battle on the final climb. Here we expect the GC teams to come to the fore. Sky and Tinkoff are not really aiming for the stage win but the rainy conditions will make them nervous. Hence, we won’t be surprised if those two teams come to the fore to set a fast pace. That will make the race hard and make it difficult for anyone to attack. Furthermore, there will be a headwind so it won’t be easy for anyone to anticipate a sprint.

 

The gradients are on the final double climb are pretty easy and it’s definitely possible for sprinters like John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni and Alexander Kristoff to survive. However, the final kilometre is pretty tough and as it comes at the end of a long climb, they won’t have the power to match the punchy Ardennes specialists. Hence, they will probably prefer to save energy for stage 3 where they need all their reserves to survive the late climb and leave it to the classics riders to battle it out here.

 

The finale is not very technical but with wet roads, it will be important to stay near the front in the flat part that leads to the final kilometre. Those final 1000m are some of the hardest of the entire stage and are so steep that it will really be a day for Ardennes specialists. In this kind of finale, legs and good form will play a big role, probably a bigger role than top speed in an uphill sprint.

 

This means that we will put Enrico Gasparotto on top of our list of favourites. There are definitely faster riders than the Italian but when it comes to form, no one seems to be able to match the veteran. Gasparotto has really enjoyed a bit of a revival this year. It was already evident in Catalonia but it was his excellent Ardennes campaign that really put him in the spotlight. Only Michael Valgren could follow him on the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race, he did better than ever on the Mur de Huy and it seemed that only the cold prevented him from doing better in Liege.

 

We had some doubts whether he was already back in form but he silenced his critics with a great performance in the Belgium Tour. He rode strongly on the cobbles which don’t really suit him but unfortunately the cancellation meant that we never got to see what he could do in the queen stage. However, what really proves his form is his fantastic 14th place in the prologue which should usually have been way too hard for him.

 

There are faster riders than Gasparotto in a flat sprint but in an uphill battle, he is very strong. He won his first Amstel Gold Race in a sprint on the Cauberg and now he is stronger than ever. The main challenge for him is his lack of team support but the experienced  Italian knows how to stay in position and gauge his effort. He hopes for a tough race that will tire out his rivals and the rainy conditions will only make the race harder. The in-form Gasparotto is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Another in-form rider is Julian Alaphilippe. The Frenchman is one of the biggest talents in the world and is tailor-made for a finish like this. After his bout of mononucleosis, he got back into form in time for the classics where he again rode to second in Fleche Wallonne. Most recently he won the Tour of California and he confirmed his great form by riding to fifth in the prologue.

 

Alaphilippe was really impressive when he sprinted up the Mount Gibraltar in the Californian queen stage and it will be hard for anyone to match him if he still has that kind of speed. He has Daniel Martin for the lead-out and he has always done well in the rain. However, he doesn’t have too much experience and that has sometimes cost him a bit. That can make the difference in such a strong field but if it comes down to pure legs, he won’t be easy to beat.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is another specialist in this kind of finish. The Belgian was a perennial contender in such finales for years but in the last two years he has turned into a winner. Most famously, he has beaten Peter Sagan in uphill sprints at last year’s Tour de France and this year’s Het Nieuwsblad and Tirreno-Adriatico and if he has the form he had at the Tour, no one is going to beat him here. However, Van Avermaet has just come back from a broken collarbone and even though he rode well to finish second behind Sagan in a tough uphill sprint in California, he can’t be at 100% yet. That may cost him a bit in this finish but we will be very surprised if the consistent Belgian is not in the top 3.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen beat Van Avermaet and a group of specialists in an even harder finale at this year’s Tour of Oman. The Norwegian is back in form after a few disappointing years and has had a great 2016 season. After his post-classics break, he showed that his condition is good as he won two stages and finished second overall at the Tour of Norway. He again showed himself by taking fourth in today’s sprint. Among the contenders for this stage, he is the fastest in a flat sprint but there are probably a few riders that are stronger in an uphill sprint. On the other hand, he won that similar Oman stage and if he has the same kind of form now, he will be hard to beat here.

 

Simon Gerrans has definitely focused on this stage for a long time as it suits him really well. The Australian is here to win a stage and prove to the Orica-GreenEDGE team that he has to be the protected rider in the punchy Tour stages, not Michael Matthews. This is his big chance to do so and he has one massive advantage. Daryl Impey showed fantastic form in the prologue and he is one of the best lead-out men in the business. We expect Gerrans to be positioned perfectly by the South African and then it will come down to the legs. However, Gerrans hasn’t been as strong as he used to be and he has always been better in a flat sprint than in an uphill dash to the line. To win the stage, he needs the perfect lead-out but we expect a few riders to be faster than him here.

 

Movistar have two cards to play: Jesus Herrada and Daniel Moreno. On paper, it’s a great finish for the latter but he seems to be far from his best condition. Instead, the Spanish team should support Herrada who showed fantastic form by taking 10th in the prologue whose climb should have been way too steep for him. He is very fast in this kind of uphill sprint as he proved when he finished second behind Dan Martin in a similar stage at the Volta Valenciana and with the form he has here, he should be one of the strongest.

 

Sky are here for the GC with Froome but there may be room for Michael Kwiatkowski to go for the stage win here. The Pole has had a very bad year which has only been salvaged by his E3 Harelbeke victory. It comes on the back of an equally bad 2015 season and for some reason he is far from being the rider he once was. However, his very good prologue indicates that he may be back on track and if that’s the case, this is a great stage for him. He is one of the best riders in an uphill sprint and he likes the rain. This could be the big chance for him to prove that he is back at his best level.

 

Arthur Vichot specializes in uphill sprints like this but the Frenchman has disappeared from the radar due to a few illness-marred years. In February, he was back on track but then he again fell ill in the Ardennes. However, he showed great form by finishing on the podium in the two uphill sprints in Plumelec and at Boucles de l’Aulne in the final weekend of May and he will be keen to prove himself here. He is probably not fast enough to win but he should be a contender.

 

On paper, it’s a great finish for Tony Gallopin. However, the Frenchman did a very bad prologue and he doesn’t seem to have his best form. He has just finished a block of altitude training and it may take him a bit more time to digest that workload. Furthermore, he rarely wins these sprints and is more of a top 10 contender than a potential winner.

 

If he has the legs he had in Alberta last autumn, Tom-Jelte Slagter won’t be easy to beat here. However, the inconsistent Dutchman doesn’t seem to be at his best. He never found the form for the Ardennes and he didn’t shine in the Belgium Tour. The finale suits him down to the ground but we doubt that he has the condition to win.

 

It’s also a good finish for Alexis Vuillermoz who specializes in uphill sprints. With a second place in Plumelec, he proved that the form is not too bad after he crashed out of the Ardennes classics. However, he is not a real sprinter and he usually needs a steeper final climb to really make a difference.

 

His teammate Samuel Dumoulin will be very interesting to follow. The Frenchman seems to be in the form of his life after he won the uphill sprints at the GP Plumelec and Boucles de l’Aulne. Usually such a long climb should be too much for the Frenchman who would have preferred the finale to start at the bottom of the final uphill drag. However, his current condition makes him a solid joker for this stage.

 

The same goes for Sondre Holst Enger. Usually, we would regard the climb as being too hard for the young Norwegian. However, he was really impressive in the Tour of Norway where he finished second in almost every stage and surprised himself by riding much better on the climbs than he had expected. If he can make it to the final kilometre, he can deliver another surprise here.

 

Finally, Michael Valgren deserves a mention. The Dane has made it clear that he has red-circled this stage which suits him really well. However, his main job is to protect Contador so we doubt that he will be allowed to take his chance. If the leader is safe, he may try his hand in the sprint and with the massive turn he took in today’s stage, he seems to be in excellent condition. The final kilometre is not too different from the Cauberg where he really excelled at the Amstel Gold Race so he can definitely do well here too.

 

For other strong contenders for such a finale, keep an eye on Jan Bakelants, Daniel Martin, Alexey Lutsenko, Luis-Leon Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, Alex Howes, Paul Voss and Valerio Conti.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Enrico Gasparotto

Other winner candidates: Julian Alaphilippe, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Simon Gerrans, Jesus Herrada, Michal Kwiatkowski

Jokers: Arthur Vichot, Tony Gallopin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Alexis Vuillermoz, Samuel Dumoulin, Sondre Holst Enger, Michael Valgren