The final climb in stage 2 turned out to do more damage than we had expected but apart from Romain Bardet and Fabio Aru, all the favourites finished together. Meanwhile, the sprinters saved energy for what is a potential chance to sprint in stage 3 but a brutal climb in the finale will make it very hard for the fast guys to make it to the finish with the best.

 

The course

The Criterium du Dauphiné is in the category of mountainous WorldTour races that leave very little room for pure sprinters. Like the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Volta a Catalunya, it doesn’t offer many kilometres of flat roads and so it is no surprise that the major Tour de France sprinters always skip the French race. Instead, they head to the Tour de Suisse or the sprint festival at the Ster ZLM Toer and leave the room for other fast finishers to shine in France. However, for those who can overcome a bit of climbing, the race is a great chance to grab a WorldTour win and the riders who excel in the sprints in Catalonia and Pais Vasco usually excel in the Alpine race too.

 

After the opening road stage which was a chance for the really fast guys, the sprinters need to climb a lot better to get a chance in stage 3 which is a typical Dauphiné stage. It will bring the riders over 187.5km from Boën-sur-Lignon to Tournon-sur-Rhone and consists of a southerly run through the lumpy Massif Central before the riders will turn to the east to tackle a hiller second half. After a completely flat start, the riders will face a long gradual uphill section that leads to the top of the category 4 climb of Cote de Mointfaucon-en-Velay (3.5km, 3.7%) at the 100.5km. However, that’s not the end of the climbing as the road continues to rise all the way to the top of the category 4 Col du Rouvey (2.8km 5.6%) 1250m above sea level twenty km later.

 

From there, the rides face a long descent of 40km before they get to the real challenge of the stage. The category 2 Cote de Secheras averages 8.2% over 2.9km but the numbers are deceptive. A relatively easy first kilometre is followed by a steep penultimate kilometre of 13.9% before the climb level off for the final 900m. The top comes with 21km to go and is followed by a few kilometres of light climbing and a long descent that ends just 5km from the finish. From there the road is lumpy but without any major technical challenges as there’s just two roundabouts to tackle. The riders will go straight through the first one after the 2km to go banner while they will turn right onto the 300m finishing straight on a 6m wide road in the final obstacle of the day. The final kilometre is slightly descending at 1.3%.

 

Tournon-sur-Rhone has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were lucky to avoid the rain in today’s stage but they need similar luck if they want to stay dry tomorrow. Wednesday is forecasted to be a mixed day with sun, cloud and 40% chance of a shower throughout the afternoon. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 24 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part of the stage before they turn into a crosswind after the first climb. In the finale, a tilawind will lead to the final climb and then it will be a combination of crosswind and cross-tailwind in the run-in to the finish. It will be a crosswind for the final 5km.

 

The favourites

There was not much room for the punchy classics riders in stage 2. The final climb turned out to be harder than we had expected and among the non-climbers , it was really only Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants and Julian Alaphilippe who finished with the best. The strong breakaway with Jeandesboz, Gallopin and Pauwels and the many attacks from Sky forced Tinkoff and BMC to chase so hard that the stage became quite selective. However, the climb was still not hard enough to separate the main contenders and only Romain Bardet who crashed in the finale, and Fabio who was caught behind the crash, lost some time.

 

Nonetheless, it was interesting to see that Contador drifted backwards in the finale. Of course such an explosive finish suits Froome better but it was still remarkable to see him suffer in the final few hundred metres. He was lucky that the commissaires ultimately decided not to correct the times and erase the four-second time loss that he had initially been given. On the other hand, Contador hasn’t done any racing for more than a month and so he definitely lacks some explosiveness. Things will be different on the longer climbs later in the race and it is dangerous to read too much into these signs of weakness.

 

At the same time, it was a pleasure to see Jesus Herrada finally confirming his potential. Yesterday we marked him out as an outsider as this kind of uphill sprint suits him down to the ground. Hence, we were not surprised to see him win but we hadn’t expected him to show this kind of superiority. It comes on the back of an excellent prologue where he did much better than expected on a climb that should usually be too steep for him and this makes him a very interesting prospect for the remaining part of the race. On paper, he is very well-suited to the regular climbs in the Alps so he is definitely a dark horse for a top resul on GC.

 

For now, however, the GC riders will head into survival mode for the next two stages which both have flat finishes. Thursday’s stage is a guaranteed bunch sprint but stage 3 is the most unpredictable of the entire race. Today all the sprinters deliberately saved energy as they know that they need all their power if they want to survive Cote de Secheras but it won’t be easy. The climb is very hard and even though the sprinters in this race are all very good climbers, we doubt that they will be able to stay with the best on a climb that averages 13.9% over one kilometre.

 

This makes it a very interesting stage. Time gaps have now opened up so a breakaway has a much better chance. Today Tinkoff clearly showed that they had no intention of bringing the break back and if Etixx-QuickStep hadn’t stepped in, the escapees would probably have made it. This serves as motivation for many riders and so there will be lots of interest in joining the early break.

 

We expect a fast start with lots of attacks but with a flat start it requires a bit of luck to make it into the right break. When the group has formed, Tinkoff will take control but we doubt that they will do much to bring the escape back. Today it took a long time for a team to react and if no one does in stage 3, the break definitely has a chance.

 

It will be very interesting to see if Cofidis and Katusha come to the fore. Both Nacer Bouhanni and Alexander Kristoff hope to survive the climb but they have no guarantees. They need their teams to control stage 4 too so they may prefer to save some energy. On the other hand, Bouhanni has often asked his team to chase even in stages where he is less likely to survive so we won’t be surprised if Cofidis come to the fore. At the same time, the stage must be a big goal for Simon Gerrans and Edvald Boasson Hagen so Orica-GreenEDGE and Dimension Data should lend a hand too. We won’t rule out a breakaway win but the odds are not on them.

 

If the break is caught, it will all be decided on the final climb. Going into the climb, it will be a big fight for position. Both the sprinters and the GC riders want to be near the front so it will be brutally fast. They also want to be in a good position for the descent which seems to be pretty difficult and this automatically means that the pace will be fast on the climb. Maybe one would expect Dimension Data or Orica-GreenEDGE to try to drop the sprinters but we think that the damage will be done by the GC teams that will be very nervous.

 

At the same time, the climb is a great launch pad for an attack. Today the group nearly made it and tomorrow they maybe have an even better chance. After the top there’s no immediate descent and the peloton will explode to pieces on such a tough climb. We expect sprinters like Kristoff and Bouhanni to get dropped and it will take time for teams like Orica-GreenEDGE and Dimension Data to organize a chase. The tailwind and the technical descent also favours a late breakaway so we will put our money on a late move to make it. The second scenario is a reduced bunch sprint with a pretty small field.

 

The riders that can do well in these scenarios are very much the same and it won’t be easy for the riders to decide whether to focus on a sprint or go for a late attack. Riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Enrico Gasparotto, Arthur Vichot, and Julian Alaphilippe can win a sprint or from a breakaway. As opposed to this, Simon Gerrans and Edvald Boasson Hagen will probably wait for sprint as the Australian is usually riding pretty conservatively while the Norwegian has to dig deep to survive on such a steep climb.

 

Today Greg Van Avermaet proved that he is back on form after he broke his collarbone at the Tour of Flanders. He had already shown good condition in California and today he was one of the only classics riders to finish with the best. Tomorrow is his final real chance to win a stage and he will be fully motivated. It won’t be easy to decide whether to attack or wait for the finale but he has never been afraid of riding aggressively. We expect him to make a move on the climb and he won't be easy to follow here. A flat sprint doesn’t suit him ideally but he is pretty fast at the end of a hard race. If a small group makes it, he is very likely to be the fastest and this makes him a strong contender. He can also wait for a reduced bunch sprint where his chances are smaller. However, he will have Damiano Caruso for the lead-out so he will have options there too. To win the stage, he probably has to attack though but as we expect a small group to make it, the Belgian is our favourite.

 

Julian Alaphilippe was disappointed to have had bad legs in today’s stage. However, he has always been better suited to the short, steep climbs than to such a long ascent. Hence, he will be much more comfortable in a stage like this and he will be keen to make amends. He is one of the strongest when it gets very steep so he could very well launch a strong attack on the climb. He is also very fast in a flat sprint – probably even faster than Van Avermaet – and this will make him hard to beat from a breakaway. He can also save some energy for a reduced bunch sprint and here he will also be one of the fastest.

 

As said, Simon Gerrans will probably save energy for a sprint finish and if it comes down to a reduced bunch kick, the Australian will be the clear favourite. He is one of the best in the world when it comes to sprinting after a hard day in the saddle and in the past he has even beaten riders like André Greipel and Peter Sagan in such sprints. Today’s climb was a bit too long for him but he should be more comfortable tomorrow. He is not strong enough to attack on such a steep climb but Orica-GreenEDGE will do their best to bring it back for a sprint finish. In such a scenario, he hopes to have Daryl Impey for the lead-out but the South African rode surprisingly poorly in today’s stage. However, he proved in the prologue that the form is not bad so if he is not suffering from any health issues, he can hopefully be back at his best for tomorrow. If Impey delivers Gerrans in the sprint, we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him.

 

His biggest rival in a sprint finish will be Edvald Boasson Hagen. We were a bit surprised to see the Norwegian getting dropped early in today’s stage but his performance in the Tour of Norway shows that the form is not bad. The climb is definitely too steep to suit him well but he should be able to survive. He showed good speed in the sprint on stage 1 and he will probably have Nathan Haas for the lead-out. On paper, he is probably faster than Gerrans so if he can remain fresh in such a tough finale, it’s definitely not impossible to beat the Australian.

 

Today Sondre Holst Enger saved energy for stage 3 which is a big chance for the talented Norwegian. After a slow start to his pro career, he has really confirmed his potential recently. He won an impressive uphill sprint in Croatia and surprised himself by climbing so well at the Tour of Norway where he finished second in almost every stage. The final climb could be too hard for him but there is a solid chance that he will survive. In the past, he has proved that he can beat Boasson Hagen in a sprint so if he is there at the finish he will be a strong contender.

 

Enrico Gasparotto apologized to his fans on Twitter after he had a bad day in today’s stage. Now he hopes to make amends in tomorrow’s stage and there is no reason to suggest that he can’t do so. After all, he did an amazing prologue where he beat several GC contenders on a brutal climb and he rode strongly in the Belgium Tour. It comes on the back of his best season ever and he is definitely on fire. He can take his chance both in a sprint and with a late attack but he is probably not fast enough to win a flat sprint. Hence, his best chance is to attack. The problem is that riders like Van Avermaet and Alaphilippe are faster in a finale like this.

 

Today Tony Gallopin was agonizingly close to victory and he must be hugely disappointed. However, he is not a rider to give up and he will definitely try again. We will be very surprised if he doesn’t attack again tomorrow as he should find the climb to his liking. He is fast in a sprint and can beat most if it comes down to a battle from a breakaway. He can also take his chance in a reduced bunch sprint but he is less likely to win in such a scenario.

 

Today Arthur Vichot again proved that he is back on track after his poor 2015 season. He was there right until the finish and that will make him confident for tomorrow. Like many others, he can both sprint and attack but he is unlikely to win a reduced bunch sprint. His best chance is to move on the climb and his performance in Plumelec and Boucles de l’Aulne proves that his form is good enough to do so. If things go well, he can beat the likes of Van Avermaet and Alaphilippe in a sprint.

 

After his back-to-back wins in Plumelec and at the Boucles de l’Aulne, Samuel Dumoulin is in the form of his life. Today he saved energy for stage 3 which is his big goal this week. The final climb is very steep but with his current condition, Dumoulin should be able to survive. On paper, he is not as fast as the likes of Gerrans, Boasson Hagen and Enger but he definitely has a chance.

 

Jesus Herrada proved his form in today’s stage and he actually has a chance to make it two in a row. He excels in uphill sprints but he is fast in a flat sprint too. He won’t be allowed to attack on the climb so he has to save everything for the final dash to the line. It won’t be easy to beat the really fast guys but if the race becomes very selective, he has a chance.

 

Ag2r had a bad day in today’s stage where Romain Bardet and Alexis Vuillermoz crashed. They will be keen to bounce back and they have some great candidates for a late attack. Vuillermoz and Jan Bakelants both showed good form in today’s stage and they should find the final climb to their liking. They are both reasonably fast too so they will have a chance in a sprint from a breakaway.

 

Valerio Conti ended the Giro d’Italia in excellent condition and he has carried that form into this race. He did a great prologue and today he sprinted to 9th. With that kind of form, he definitely has to try a late attack and if he makes it into a small group, he is actually pretty fast.

 

Fabio Aru lost more time in today’s stage so Astana will now be more aggressive. This opens the door for Luis-Leon Sanchez to launch one of his trademark attacks. The final climb is too steep for him but he could attack over the top or on the descent. He showed great form in today’s stage and is fast in a sprint from a small group.

 

Wout Poels had a bad day in today’s stage and so dropped out of GC contention. He will be keen to bounce back and his prologue shows that the form is not bad. Sky showed that they are eager to ride aggressively and Poels should find the final climb to his liking. He won a stage from a breakaway in Catalonia and would love to do so again here.

 

Finally, it won’t be completely impossible for some of the sprinters to survive. John Degenkolb probably has the best chance. The German is not in his best form yet but he showed in California that he is not far off the mark. At his best, he is able to handle such a climb. Nacer Bouhanni also has a decent chance. While he suffers on longer climbs, he can dig extremely deep on a short, steep ascent as he did when he battled with the GC riders in a Vuelta stage two years ago. If he is there at the finish, he will be the clear favourite. Alexander Kristoff and Niccolo Bonifazio could also make it but the climb is likely to be a bit too steep for the big Norwegian and there won’t be much time to get back in contention.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Greg Van Avermaet (breakaway or sprint)

Other winner candidates: Julian Alaphilippe (breakaway or sprint), Simon Gerrans (sprint)

Outsiders: Edvald Boasson Hagen (sprint), Sondre Holst Enger (sprint), Enrico Gasparotto (breakaway or sprint), Tony Gallopin (breakaway or sprint), Arthur Vichot (breakaway or sprint), Samuel Dumoulin (sprint), Jesus Herrada (sprint)

Sprint jokers: John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Alexander Kristoff, Niccolo Bonifazio

Breakaway jokers: Alexis Vuillermoz, Jan Bakelants, Valerio Conti, Luis-Leon Sanchez, Wout Poels