Fabio Aru took the most unlikely win of his career and left the sprinters hugely frustrated on an exciting third stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné. Luckily, there’s still a chance for the fast guys to bounce back and they will go out all for victory in Thursday’s final flat stage of the race.

 

The course

If the sprinters were left frustrated in stage 3, they will be extra keen to grab their final chance in the race on stage 4. The final three days are all about the GC battle and tough climbing in the Alps so they have to make the most of the relatively flat course for Thursday’s stage. However, it won’t be easy to control the stage. Unlike on Wednesday, there won’t be any major climbs but the lumpy terrain in the finale is another indication of why the pure sprinters never do the Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

The 176km stage will bring the riders from Tain-L’Hermitage to Belley and sees the riders travel in a northeasterly direction towards the Alps where the final battles will take place. The first half is mostly flat or slightly uphill and only includes the category 4 climbs of Cote d’Hauterives (2.1km, 5.2%) and Cote de la Chapelle-de-la-Tour (1.8km, 5%). Then a short descent leads to completely flat roads.

 

With 39km to go, the riders will hit the finishing circuit before they get to the finish for the first time. The final part of the stage consists of one lap of the 32km circuit which is lumpy with very few kilometres of flat roads but no major climbs either. Passing the 4km to go mark, the riders will head down slightly descending roads until they get to the final kilometre which is uphill at 2.6%. The road is winding without any major turns but the final kilometre is technically challenging. Having passed straight through a roundabout with 800m to go, the riders face to light bends before they get onto the 200m finishing straight on a 6m wide road.

 

Belley has often hosted stages of the Tour de l’Ain, most recently in 2010 when Wout Poels won a sprint from an 8-rider group of climbers after a tough day in the mountains. In 2008, John Gadret won another very hard stage here while Patrick Halgand won a two-rider sprint in 2006. Cedric Vasseur rode to a solo win in 2004.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now the riders have avoided the rain and there is a solid chance that they will do so on Thursday too. It will be a mixed day with both sunshine and clouds but there is a 40% chance of a shower in the afternoon. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 25 degrees.

 

It will be the windiest day yet as there will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction. This means that it will be a long day with a cross-headwind and a headwind until the riders get to the circuit. Here it will first be a cross-headwind, then a tailwind and finally a cross-headwind until they turn into a crosswind with 500m to go.

 

The favourites

Did you ever think that you would have a top 3 that included both Fabio Aru and Alexander Kristoff? We certainly didn’t. The Italian climber was maybe the most unlikely winner of stage 3. He is not strong on the flat and not fast in a flat sprint so his only chance was to arrive solo. When he attacked solo with 13km to go, the entire cycling world was probably shaking their heads – at least we were – and his breakaway companions seemed to do the same. At least, they sat up and were swallowed up by the peloton.

 

However, the technical descent played to Aru’s advantage but it was still very unlikely that he would be able to stay away as he only had a 10-second advantage for the final four kilometres of flat roads. However, the sprint teams were on their limits and as Orica-GreenEDGE were too late in starting their chase and Giant-Alpecin made a big gamble by saving everything for the final kilometre, Aru did the impossible.

 

It was a strong comeback for the Astana leader. He has never been strong in his preparation races so we have never had much confidence in his chances for the GC. We were confirmed in our assessment when he did a very bad mountain prologue and he even had more bad luck to lose time in yesterday’s crash. However, the form is definitely not too bad and even though we still expect much from him later in the race, he is on track for a solid Tour de France debut.

 

At the same time, the sprinters were left frustrated. Everybody was probably surprised that the climb was much easier than expected and they were almost all there in the end. ASO roadbooks are usually reliable but there is no way that the Cote de Secheras had an average gradient of 13.9% for one kilometre. Maybe it peaked at that mark but if those numbers had been true, the peloton would have been much smaller. The sprinters seemed to have been aware of the wrong information as they didn’t hold anything back in the chase behind the early break.

 

Luckily, they still have a chance to go for a stage win. Tomorrow’s stage doesn’t have a big climb in the end and should be much easier to control. Furthermore, there will be a rather strong headwind for most of the day which is definitely not promising for the chances of an early breakaway. Both Katusha and Cofidis have GC ambitions in this race but their main goals are the sprints so they will go all out in an attempt to make sure that they can grab their final opportunity.

 

We were pretty surprised that the break went straight from the gun in today’s stage. There was a solid chance that the break would get far and many had expected a big battle. However, only LottoNL-Jumbo and Ag2r briefly tried to bring the trio back and when they gave up, it was clear that the stage would be a controlled affair until the finale.

 

Tomorrow the break has a smaller chancer and the headwind won’t serve as extra motivation. There aren’t many KOM points on offer either so we expect the break to escape right from the gun. Tinkoff will set the early pace and then Katusha and Cofidis will take control with Angel Vicioso and Rudy Molard to keep the break in check while they battle the headwind. Giant-Alpecin and Bora-Argon 18 may also lend a hand so the break will have virtually no chance.

 

The finishing circuit is pretty hilly so we won’t be surprised if some of the classics riders try to attack here. Aru’s win will serve as inspiration but we doubt that they will be able to make it. After all, there’s too much interest in a bunch sprint so we should get a final battle between the fast guys.

 

In the first sprint stage, the finale didn’t have any technical challenges and it as mainly about speed. Tomorrow, it will be different as there’s a roundabout in the final kilometre and then two sweeping turns before they get to a finishing straight of just 200m. Furthermore, the final kilometre is uphill at 2.6% so the sprint is very different from the first one.

 

The technical nature of the sprint means that lead-outs will be hugely important and this puts Alexander Kristoff at the top of the list of favourites. The big Norwegian may not be as fast as Nacer Bouhanni but he has the best train. Katusha dominated most of the sprints in 2015 and the addition of Michael Mørkøv in the position between Marco Haller and final lead-out man Jacopo Guarnieri has only made them stronger. They proved their class in stage one when not even the very aggressive behavior of the Cofidis riders made them lose control and as usual Kristoff was delivered on the front.

 

Unfortunately, Kristoff never got the chance to show what he could do as a touch of wheel with Guarnieri made him lose all his speed and he didn’t even finish in the top 10. However, he claimed to have had lots of power and he showed that in today’s stage where he won the sprint for second. He excels in uphill sprints where he can use his brute force so the finale suits him really well.

 

The main issue will be the timing. With a headwind and an uphill finale, it will be important for Katusha to stay patient. If they hit the front too early, Kristoff may have to launch from afar and that can be costly in this kind of sprint. However, if Katusha can time things right, they should again deliver Kristoff on the front and we doubt that anyone can come around him in a finish like this.

 

His big rival will of course be Nacer Bouhanni. The Cofidis train is the only one that can really match Katusha. After their poor performance in Dunkirk, they have constantly improved and they were up there with Katusha in stage 1. Unfortunately, they had a very aggressive approach but at least they showed that the combination Lemoine-Soupe-Laporte-Bouhanni have the firepower to drop their sprinter off on Kristoff’s wheel.

 

Like Kristoff, Bouhanni likes an uphill sprint and he loves technical finales like this one. The problem is the relatively short finishing straight which doesn’t give much time to pass Kristoff if the Norwegian is again given a perfect lead-out. However, Bouhanni is probably the fastest rider in this field so if he is on Kristoff’s wheel or Katusha time things badly, he will be ready to strike.

 

In stage 1, Trek decided to go for Edward Theuns while Niccolo Bonifazio acted as the lead-out man. The team have probably shared the two sprint stages between their fast men so tomorrow should be a day for Bonifazio. He proved his class in today’s stage where he was second in the sprint behind Kristoff after a mechanical had taken Theuns out of contention at the bottom of the climb.

 

Bonifazio has really stepped up his sprinting in 2016. He nearly beat Kittel in Romandie and he seems to have come a lot faster. Furthermore, he has improved his positioning a lot and that has made him one of the most consistent sprinters in the peloton. He will have Theuns for the lead-out and that’s a massive advantage as both are very strong in an uphill finale like this. Bonifazio has proved that he has the speed to challenge Kittel and then he can also win a sprint like this.

 

An uphill sprint is also what Moreno Hofland prefers. He took the biggest win of his career in a similar finale at Paris-Nice a few years ago. In 2016, he has even sprinted better than ever. He showed impressive speed at the Giro where he achieved some top results despite not having much team support. In stage 1, he again showed his class as he lost his teammates in the final kilometres. Nonetheless, he moved back to the front alone and then launched a long sprint that even brought him into second before he slightly paid for his huge effort. He has Dennis van Winden for the lead-out and he is usually a very good final pilot. If they can time things right, Hofland will be one of the best in a finish like this.

 

Sam Bennett is one of the most inconsistent riders in the peloton. Sometimes he climbs very poorly but when he is on form, he is really strong. He seems to be at his best at the moment as he survived the climb in today’s stage and he did a very strong sprint on stage 1 where he only paid for his long effort in the very final metres. He should find an uphill finish to his liking but he has a big disadvantage. His lead-out train only consists of Shane Archbold and that’s too little in the battle against Katusha and Cofidis. He has the speed to win but he needs a bit of luck to be in the right position.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen bounced back from a disappointing performance in stage 2 with a solid ride today. He looked very strong on the climb and did a fine sprint in the end. He also showed solid speed in stage 1 and he has been positioning himself well. Nathan Haas and Youcef Reguigui are great lead-out men and he should be in a good spot in this technical finale. He is usually not fast enough to win a flat sprint but in this kind of finale, he can definitely come out on top.

 

Those who watched the final stage of the Tour of Croatia, will know that Sondre Holst Enger is one of the best in the world in an uphill sprint. The Norwegian was in a class of his own and almost made Edward Theuns look like an amateur in that stage. After his excellent performance at the Tour of Norway, there were great expectations for his Dauphiné but for some reason he has been riding very poorly in the last two stages. However, he has a solid train with Oliver Naesen and Aleksejs Saramotins so if he can rediscover his best legs, he will be a danger man in a final like this.

 

Jens Debusschere was second in stage 1 and showed great speed to come from far back. He likes an uphill sprint and has proved to be one of the fastest here. However, it will be difficult for the former Belgian champion to win. He only has Kris Boeckmans for the lead-out and the strong Belgian is still not at 100% after his crash. In this kind of technical finale, positioning is the key to success and we doubt that Debusschere will be in a position to benefit maximally from his speed.

 

An uphill finish is great for John Degenkolb but we doubt that the German will be able to show his speed. He has always struggled to stay with his teammates in the sprints and it seems to have become a lot worse after his crash. In the sprints in California and at this race, he has not been able to stay in contact with his train and so he has never really been able to do an optimal sprint. That’s very costly in a technical finale like this one. Degenkolb has the speed to win but a victory will be a bit of a surprise.

 

As said, we expect Bonifazio to be the protected Trek sprinter but Edward Theuns may be given his chance. After all, he won a similar uphill sprint on the first stage of the Belgium Tour and he was second behind Enger on the final stage in Croatia. If Bonifazio is not at 100%, the Belgian could be given the nod and then he will have a great lead-out man. He failed in stage 1 but usually he is very good at positioning himself and this should make him a contender.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have been riding for Daryl Impey in the sprints while Simon Gerrans have acted as a support rider. Both of them should find an uphill finish to their liking. Usually they are not fast enough to match the real sprinters but they will have a better chance here. The one who gets the nod, will have one of the best trains at their disposal and this automatically turns them into contenders in this kind of technical finale.

 

Samuel Dumoulin is in great form. The Ag2r rider won two successive uphill sprints in France less than two weeks ago and he should find this finale to his liking. He would have preferred the road to be steeper though and he is probably not fast enough to win on a relatively easy slope like this one. Furthermore, he doesn’t have much support which makes it difficult in a technical finale like this.

 

Finally, we will point to Julian Alaphilippe and Greg Van Avermaet. None of them are fast enough to win a normal bunch sprint but in this kind of finale they will have a chance. They are both among the best when it comes to positioning and they have the technical skills to excel in a finale like this one. An uphill finish is tailor-made for them so they should both be up there. Especially, Alaphilippe who is faster than Van Avermaet, has a solid chance in a finale where he can really use his excellent bike-handling skills.

 

Also Federico Zurlo, Enrico Gasparotto, Jack Bauer and Tony Hurel can be expected to take their chance in the sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Niccolo Bonifazio

Outsiders: Moreno Hofland, Sam Bennett, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sondre Holst Enger

Jokers: Jens Debusschere, John Degenkolb, Edward Theuns, Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, Julian Alaphilippe Samuel Dumoulin, Greg Van Avermaet