Chris Froome was attentive in today’s uphill and almost erased the deficit he had from the prologue and so the Brit and race leader Alberto Contador are in a very similar position as we head into the high mountains. After four days of survival, the GC battle will resume with the first of three consecutive uphill finishes and even though the final climb in stage 5 is not one that will create massive differences, its brutally steep sections will be enough to give a real indication of who’s going to win the race.

 

The course

The GC riders battled it out in the prologue where the first time gaps opened up but from there it has been a bit of a waiting game. After four days of survival, it is finally time for the next big battle as three days of tough climbing will kick off with a challenging stage and a difficult uphill finish. The final climb may only be of the second category but don’t be fooled by the numbers. The irregular ascent includes some very steep sections so even though it’s not a day to create massive time differences, it will be a stage that gives another indication of who’s going to win the race.

 

As it has become popular in recent years, the organizers have designed a short, intense stage which will bring the riders over 140km from La Ravoire to Vaujany. It’s a not a stage in the high mountains as the riders will spend most of the day by travelling in a southwesterly direction in the hilly terrain on the outskirts of the biggest climbs. The first 10km are relatively flat but from there, the room for recovery will be hard to find.

 

The first challenge is the category 3 Cote de la Chapelle-Blanche (4km, 4.7%) which is followed by the category 4 Cote d’Arvillard (2.2km, 5.3%). Then it’s time for the first category 1 climb of the race, Col du Barioz (7.8km, 6.5%) which has a hard first half and an easier second part. After the descent, it’s straight onto the category 2 Col des Ayes (3.8km, 8.1%).

 

There’s no immediate descent and instead the riders will spend 35km on a lumpy plateau that includes the category 4 climb of Col des Mouilles (2.1km, 6.1%) and the category 3 Cote de la Sarrazine (3.3km, 5%). Then it’s finally time for some descending which leads to the city of Vizille at the 101.5km mark.

 

Here the riders will turn to the northeast to head into the Alps. This means that it’s uphill for the final 38.5km. However, the first part is just a gradual ascent that leads to a short, flat section in Allemont with 11.5km to go and the real challenge is the 6.4km climb category 2 climb that leads to the finish. The average gradient is just 6.5% but don’t be fooled by the numbers. Between kilometre 1 and 5 it’s steep, especially the third and fifth kilometres which average 10.8% and 12.5% respectively. Then a slightly descending kilometre leads to the final 400m that are uphill at 7.3%. There are several hairpin bends in the steep part and then there are two turns just after the flamme rouge. The riders will do a 180-degree turn to get onto the 200m finishing straight on a 5m wide road.

 

Vaujany has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Apart from a shower midway through the stage, the riders mainly stayed dry in today’s stage and they should have similar luck on Friday before rain is set to arrive in the evening and for Saturday’s queen stage. Friday will be sunny but more clouds will arrive towards the end of the stage where there is a 10% chance of rain. The maximum temperature at the finish will be a 20 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and then a cross-headwind for most of the day. The riders will turn into a cross-tailwind when they start the long uphill drag in the finale. It will be a cross-tailwind on the final climb.

 

The favourites

Edvald Boasson Hagen again proved that something has changed by taking his first WorldTour win since 2013. After nine months at his new team, the Norwegian returned to his former level at last year’s Tour of Britain and since then he has been completely reinvigorated. His powerful sprint in today’s stage was reminiscent of his best performances during his heydays and as it comes on the back of a great first part of the season, it seems that we can finally say that Eddy is back.

 

However, the fastest sprinter in today’s stage was definitely Julian Alaphilippe. It has never been a secret that the Frenchman is fast in an uphill sprint but it was still a surprise to see him beat the pure sprinters in a relatively easy finale like this. He both picked up six valuable bonus seconds and again showed that he is in great form. He will be very interesting to follow in the high mountains. At first he claimed that he was not here for the GC but yesterday he admitted that he was sprinting for the bonus seconds which indicates that he is not telling the truth. He has never seen what he can do in a big mountain stage at this level and as he suffered on the long climb in stage 2, we doubt that he will be able to handle three consecutive days in the Alps. Nonetheless, this race is a very big test for him and it will reveal a lot about his future possibilities.

 

Alaphilippe may have gained bonus seconds but the big winner was Chris Froome. The Brit again proved his great attentiveness and that he is actually strong in this kind of uphill sprint. In 2014, he sprinted to a top 10 in the first bunch sprint on a similar finishing straight on the first stage of the Tour de France and today he was again up there with the fast guys. That allowed him to almost nullify his deficit from the prologue and it means that he is now only four seconds behind Contador in the overall standings as we head into the three decisive stages.

 

Since the prologue, it has been a waiting game but now it is finally time for the GC riders to show their real cards. Tomorrow’s stage is not the hardest of the race but the numbers of the final climb are really deceptive. It has two very steep sections and so has the potential to do some damage. The time gaps will be relatively small but we can definitely expect a real battle between the overall contenders.

 

The stage is very unpredictable as it can pan out in a lot of different ways and much will depend on Sky’s approach. The British team have the strongest team and have cards to play in the overall standings. They have proved that they are willing to use a different tactic than they have done in the past and that’s probably what they will try to do in stage 5 too. It’s unlikely that they will set up their usual train and ride tempo on the front and instead we can expect to see attacks from Wout Poels, Mikel Landa and Sergio Henao on the final climb.

 

Sky may even go on the attack early in the stage. It’s a very tough start and it is evident that a break can actually make it in this stage. This means that we can expect a very fast and aggressive start and with this kind of opening part, the break that ultimately goes clear, will be very strong, especially if they ride away on the Col du Barioz. Wout Poels had a bad day in stage 2 and so has lost a bit of time so we wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it into the group to put Tinkoff under pressure.

 

At this point, bigger time gaps have opened up but the riders that can get clear in such a hard start are all still pretty close. This means that Tinkoff can’t allow them to get too much of an advantage and so it will be hard for them to make it to the finish. The main question is whether they will be strong enough to keep the race under control but we expect them to be so. In any case, BMC don’t want to lose the race either and if Sky have no one in the break, they will also lend a hand. In this kind of stage, a break always has a chance, especially as it’s very short, but with relatively small gaps, we expect it to come down to a battle between the favourites on the final climb.

 

The climb is a very special one as it is very irregular and has some very steep sections. Hence, it is more suited to punchy riders than real climbers. Furthermore, it’s slightly descending for one kilometre until the riders get to the final 400m uphill drag to the line. This means that a fast finish will be an important asset if no one is able to make a decisive difference on the steep part.

 

The final climb is very short so we will probably see attacks as soon as we hit the steep section. As said, we expect Sky to hit out instead of controlling the pace and then it will be up to Jesper Hansen, Robert Kiserlovski and mainly Roman Kreuziger to bring the attackers back. Tinkoff can expect to get a bit of help from BMC though but it won’t be easy to control the finale.

 

With an aggressive strategy, it will be interesting to see what Froome does. If Henao or Landa are ahead, will he attack or ride defensively? Contador will probably have a defensive approach and Porte is still the underdog so he may also be a little bit cautious. It could end as a bit of ceasefire between the favourites. On the other hand, Froome is very eager to test his legs and win the race so we would be pretty surprised if he doesn’t try to put Contador into difficulty.

 

This opens the door for a few scenarios. One is that Froome, Contador or Porte is able to drop their rivals and ride to a solo victory. A second possibility is that a strong group with a Sky rider makes it to the finish on the final climb. For the outsiders, it will be a very good idea to follow the moves from Sky as it could open a great chance for them. A third scenario is that all attacks are brought back and none of the favourites can drop each other. Then we will have a regrouping in the flat kilometre where it will be possible for a brave rider to ride away. Finally, it could all come down to an uphill sprint between a small group of contenders.

 

One rider with the ability to win from most of these scenarios is Daniel Martin. The Irishman surprised himself by doing an excellent prologue as he had barely done any intensive training. This proves that his form is great and in general he has been riding very well since he joined Etixx-QuickStep.

 

On such a relatively short climb, we doubt that Froome, Contador or Porte will be able to get rid of each other and this means that an attack from an outsider could very well pay off. Martin is always riding aggressively and he will be looking for opportunities on a puncheur climb that suits him down to the ground. He likes these very steep gradients and he knows which moves to follow. We doubt that he will be able to follow the three best climbers but he won’t be far back and he will be ready to exploit the tactical battle. Furthermore, he is very fast in an uphill sprint so if it comes down to a battle from a small group, he will be one of the favourites.

 

As said, we expect Contador to have a relatively conservative approach. He was strong in the prologue but seemed to suffer in the uphill finish in stage 2. He clearly misses some explosiveness and so this relatively short climb doesn’t suit him. It suits Froome much better so if one of the favourites is going to take the win, it will probably be the Brit. He didn’t excel in the prologue and has admitted that he is trying to postpone his peak condition to be at his best for the third week of the Tour. Hence, he is not at 100% yet but he has done nothing to hide his ambitions to win this race. He is punchier than Contador and is actually pretty good on this kind of climb – just recall how he rode to second on the Mur de Huy at last year’s Tour de France. He has looked strong in the road stages and claims to be feeling good. With Contador showing some signs of weakness, Froome could drop the Spaniard on this kind of climb. Furthermore, the Brit is the fastest in a sprint so if the likes of Froome, Contador and Porte arrive together, the Sky captain will take the win.

 

We are very curious to see what Julian Alaphilippe can do in this stage. If it had just been about the final climb, he would surely be up there with the best as this kind of irregular, steep climb suits him really well. However, the climb comes at the end of a hard stage with a long gradual uphill drag to the bottom of the ascent. This could be a bit too much climbing for Alaphilippe who is not a pure climber. After all, he admitted that he was not feeling good at the end of stage 2. On the other hand, his prologue and his performance today proves which kind of form he has so it’s definitely not impossible for him to be up there with the best. He seems to be rather inconsistent in stage races so much will depend on whether he is on a good or a bad day. His tactic will probably be to try to follow the best and if he is there for a sprint, no one is going to beat him.

 

Alberto Contador may not be a favourite for this stage but he can definitely win it. The Spaniard could hardly hide that he felt in great form at the start of the race and he proved it in the prologue. Since then he has seemed to suffer a bit but that may not be a true reflection of his climbing form. After all, he has never had much explosiveness on easy gradients and he will be much more comfortable on the steeper climb tomorrow. Still this kind of climb doesn’t suit him perfectly so he will probably have a defensive approach. However, if he sees just the slightest sign of weakness, he will be ready to exploit the situation to ride to a solo win.

 

Richie Porte is the third of the big three in this race. The Australian has often proved that he can match the best in the mountains and he underlined his status by finishing second in the prologue. This kind of climb actually suits him pretty well as Mr. Willunga Hill has the punch to power up a relatively short, explosive climb. He has dropped Contador in the past and he beat Froome in the prologue so he may be good enough to ride away tomorrow. Furthermore, he may exploit the tactical battle between the two archrivals.

 

Romain Bardet proved that he was in great form by doing an excellent prologue but he lost a bit of time when he crashed in stage 2. He has now set his sights on a stage win and his time loss will now give him more freedom to attack. He is strong on this kind of climb and we have no doubt that he will try to move in the finale. If he joins forces with one of the Sky riders, he could very well be stronger than his companion(s) and ride away in the steep sections. In a tactical battle between the favourites, the in-form Frenchman could very well stay away.

 

Mikel Landa has been the key protagonist in the Sky aggression and we expect him to hit out early on the final climb. His good performance in the prologue shows that his form is solid even though he is clearly not at his best. We doubt that his form is good enough for the longer climbs later in the race but for this kind of ascent, it may be enough. He likes this climb as it is very similar to the ones that allowed him to win stages in Trentino and Pais Vasco so he won’t be easy to bring back if he gets a gap in the finale.

 

Thibaut Pinot did a very bad prologue and doesn’t seem to be at 100%. However, the TT was always going to be a bit too short for him so it may not be a true reflection of his level. In fact, his time loss may now be a blessing in disguise as he won’t be too heavily marked if he attacks on the final climb. After all he is one of the best climber here so even though the climb doesn’t suit him, he could still win the stage.

 

Fabio Aru is a in a similar position. The Italian has lost a lot of time and is no immediate threat. He is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and he will definitely give it a try. His prologue proved that he is not at his best yet which he has never been in his preparation races, but less may be enough. He is constantly getting better and when his great solo ride in stage 3 was the confirmation that the form is not bad. He likes very steep gradients so like Pinot and Bardet he could be a rider to attack in the finale.

 

We are very curious to see what Jesus Herrada can do. Usually, this kind of climb will be too hard for him but he is clearly in the form of his life. He won’t ride aggressively but will try to limit his losses. If there’s a standstill after the steep section, he may be able to get back and take a sprint win.

 

Diego Rosa and Daniel Navarro both did great prologues and are clearly riding very well. They are not among the pre-race favourites so they won’t be too heavily marked. While Navarro is probably the best climber of the pair, Rosa is the faster finisher so they will have different options if they make it into the right group.

 

Pierre Rolland has had a slow start to the year but as usual his form has arrived just in time for the summer. This is an anti-Rolland climb as it is short and irregular but we have little doubt that he will try to attack. With the kind of form he has shown until now, he may be strong enough to win a stage that doesn’t really suit him if he can exploit the tactical battle in the finale.

 

Adam Yates and Bauke Mollema are both solid contenders too. Mollema will probably try to wait for a sprint where he is likely to be one of the fastest. He won the sprint for sixth behind the break in stage 2 and surprised himself by being so strong in the finale. The climb suits Yates really well but honestly we were a little disappointed with his prologue. Still he should be one of the best on this kind of climb and he is never afraid of launching an attack in the finale.

 

We will point to Wout Poels and Sergio Henao who are both part of the Sky tactic. Both will probably try to attack. We have little doubt that Poels is strong enough to win on a climb that suits him down to the ground as his poor performance on stage 2 was probably only due to a bad day. After all, his prologue was great. However, he has lost a bit of time so he may not be the first option for Sky to attack in the finale as he cannot be used to put Tinkoff under pressure. The final climb is tailor-made for Henao but he doesn’t seem to be in his best condition so we doubt that he has the form to win.

 

Finally, we will mention Guillaume Martin as a super joker. The Frenchman won the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2015 but health issues has disrupted the start to his pro career. This race is his big goal for the year and defied all expectations by taking 11th in stage 2. Of course he won’t win the stage but we are very curious to see what he can do.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Daniel Martin

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Julian Alaphilippe

Outsiders: Alberto Contador, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Mikel Landa, Fabio Aru, Thibaut Pinot

Jokers: Jesus Herrada, Diego Rosa, Daniel Navarro, Pierre Rolland, Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Sergio Henao, Wout Poels

Super joker: Guillaume Martin