After yesterday's small appetizer, Dwars door Vlaanderen, tomorrow will be the day when the Belgian classics season kicks off in earnest. With a course similar to the one found a week later in the Tour of Flanders, the WorldTour race E3 Prijs Vlaanderen-Harelbeke has built up a reputation as being the perfect testing ground for the greatest specialists who will go all out for the victory one last time before the real showdown in Vlaanderen's Mooiste. It's time for the big dress rehearsal and to find out who may stand at the top step of the podium in a week's time in Oudenaarde!

 

Many of the classics riders got the chance to reacquaint themselves with the cobbles and the Belgian hellingen when the Dwars door Vlaanderen opened the crucial three-week cobbled classics season but when the next leg of the series takes place tomorrow, there will be much more at stake. While Wednesday's race was a playing ground for the lieutenants and for the riders just below the best, the biggest classics stars will face off in their first big battle in tomorrow's E3 Prijs Vlaanderen.

 

The Belgian race is the second in the series of cobbled races in Belgium that take place over a two-week period from the Wednesday after Milan-Sanremo to the Wednesday after the Tour of Flanders and it is the one that resembles De Ronde the most. Traditionally held around one week ahead of Vlaanderen's Mooiste, it has become the perfect testing ground for the favourites for the biggest Flemish race.

 

Held for the first time in 1958, it was originally named Harelbeke-Anvers-Harelbeke but took the E3 name from the E3 motorway (now A14) which was built in the mid-sixties. Right from the beginning, it was thought to be a shorter version that mimicked the Tour of Flanders and offered the riders the perfect warm-up for one of the sport's biggest events.

 

Although dominated by Belgians in the early years, it quickly gained a lot of prestige and the list of early winners contains big names like Roger De Vlaeminck, Rik Van Looy, Freddy Maertens, and Jan Raas. As time has gone by, the race has gained a more international flavour and it has been won by most of the greatest specialists for the cobbled classics. Johan Museeuw, Peter van Petegem, Andrei Tchmil, Tom Boonen, Filippo Pozzato, and Fabian Cancellara are just some of the riders that have won the race within the last 20 years which is a clear indication of the importance of the event.

 

The Flemish races may be divided into two categories. Scheldeprijs, Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, and Ghent-Wevelgem are races that the sprinters may realistically target and which have a rather predestined format determined by their history and their names.

 

In the second category, the Tour of Flanders, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and E3 are races for the hard men and classics specialists. These are the true Flemish classics as they are designed in the same way. The course map is a complicated affair as the riders zigzag their way through a rather small area in the Flemish Ardennes, heading back and forth and often using the same roads numerous times. All the famous hellingen known from the Tour of Flanders are located in this small area and it is easy for the organizers to make changes from year to year, varying the climbs used for the different editions of the race.

 

Dwars door Vlaanderen falls in between those two categories as it is built much like the one from the second group but may also be won by the sprinters.

 

For many years, E3 was held on the Saturday before the Tour of Flanders where it combined with the Brabantse Pijl to form an important chance to prepare for next Sunday's big event. With the race being built up after the same formula as the Tour of Flanders and featuring many of the same climbs, it has always been an indispensable part of the calendar for every ambitious classics contender and the calendar date has made it a perfect opportunity to go all out one final time ahead of the race that counts the most. This has put the racing at a level that is almost on par with the one in De Ronde and so it was only natural for the UCI to grant the race WorldTour status for the 2012 season.

 

The increased status was given as part of a major reshuffle of the classics calendar that saw the race being moved to Friday while another WorldTour race, Gent-Wevelgem, took over Brabantse Pijl's slot the following Sunday. The two races now combine forces to form a solid block of cobbled WorldTour racing that both offer a lot of important points and give the riders the chance to prepare themselves for De Ronde.

 

However, the two races are very different and so are treated very differently by the classics stars. Even though Gent-Wevelgem may historically be number three in the hierarchy of the cobbled races (behind Paris-Robaix and the Tour of Flanders), it takes place in a different part of Belgium and is more suited to the sprinters than the Flanders favourites. Most of them do both races but while they hold something back in Sunday's race - except for a possible test of form on the Kemmelberg - they go all out in the E3 in a quest to go for glory. Gent-Wevelgem may have a lot of prestige but the real dress rehearsal for Flanders takes place tomorrow.

 

The race was long known as Tom Boonen's race. In his heydays from 2004 to 2007, he won four consecutive editions of the Belgian semi-classic. During his turbulent years in 2010 and 2011, he was, however, forced to give away the throne to archrival Fabian Cancellara who used stunning solo performances in those two editions to build up his major favourite role for the Tour of Flanders. In his magic 2012 season, Boonen was back to his best and it seemed only natural for him to add a fifth win in E3 to his almost all-inclusive list of classics victories that year. In 2013, however, Cancellara was back on top and the Swiss now seems to have taken over the dominant position in this race.

 

After Peter Sagan’s victory in 2014, it was Geraint Thomas who put himself on the top of the list of favourites for Flanders by winning the 2015 edition. The Brit joined forces with Zdenek Stybar and Sagan after the key section with the climbs of Paterberg and Oude Kwaremont and those three riders decided the race. Thomas was the first to attack and as Stybar looked to Sagan to close the gap, the Brit rode to a stunning solo win. Sagan cracked in spectacular fashion and was passed by the first big chasing group in the run-in while Stybar rode to second. Matteo Trentin made it two Etixx-QuickStep riders on the podium by winning the sprint for third. Thomas won’t be back to defend his title as the Tour of Flanders will be his only race on the cobbles in a season focused on stage racing but Stybar and Trentin will both be back to try to erase the bad start of the cobbled season for Etixx-QuickStep in the opening weekend.

 

The course

As said, the E3 follows the same format as races like Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the Tour of Flanders, and Dwars door Vlaanderen. With the Tour of Flanders being the exception, all those races have one of the cities in the Flemish Ardennes as their centre and they zigzag their way through the very tiny area of all the famous climbs. They cover several hellingen and pave sections before they return along flat roads to the start and finishing city. The narrow roads, steep climbs, and uncomfortable surface typically turn it into a race for the hardmen as the gradual selection means that only a handful of riders are usually left in contention by the time they return to the start and finish area.

 

Compared to the most recent edition, the distance has been reduced from 215.3km to 206.4km but the number of hellingen has been reduced from 17 to 15. After a few years with a mostly unchanged course, it has undergone a number of modifications. Most of the hellingen will be the same but most of the early part of the race has been changed and their order has been altered. The race has been marred by many crashes of key contenders and the organizers have wanted to make the early part safer. However, the finale with the final five climbs is almost identical to what we have seen in the last few years and we can expect the race to unfold in much the same way, with the key points being the same. Like last year there are an extra 3km of flat roads have been added to make room for a finish at the E3 arena.

 

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen is intimately linked to the city of Harelbeke that acts as its race centre. From the start, the riders head along flat roads in an easterly direction towards the Flemish Ardennes but at it is customary for these classics, the first part of the race is flat. This means that the riders will stay away from the hilly zone as they pass the finishing city of the Tour of Flanders, Oudenaarde, and continue in a northeasterly direction all the way to the city of Oombergen close to Zottegem. After 28.9km, they will get a chance to test their climbing legs on the Katteberg (600m, 6.7%, max. 8%) but that’s the only climb on the way out. There will be a few pave sectors, woth the Beaucarnestraat, the Holleweg and Paddestraat coming at the 28km, 30km and 42km marks repectively. Howeverm this early part of the race will mainly serve to make the race longer and harder and allow an early break to take off.

 

Having reached Oombergen after around 45km of racing, the will riders turn to the right to continue in a southerly direction towards the famous city of Geraardsbergen which they will reach at around the 75km mark. However, the famous Muur won’t feature on the course. Turning right, the riders head back towards Harelbeke in a westerly direction and after having passed La Houpe (3440m, 3.32%, max.10%) at the 92km mark, they get to the city of Ronse at the halfway point.

 

It is now time for them to zigzag their way up and down the many hellingen as the real race is about to start and by now, the nervousness and battle for position will have started. It is still too early for the main contenders to launch an attack but it is important to be in a good position as a crash on these narrow roads can hold you back and mean that you will never see the front again. This automatically forces the pace to go up, meaning that the early break will gradually be pegged back, and we may see riders try to bridge across on these early hellingen.

 

The series starts with the cobbled Oude Kruisberg (800m, 4.8%, max. 9%) with 98km to go which is followed by the Knokteberg (1530m, 5.3%, max. 13.3%) 8km later. Then it’s almost straight onto the Hotondberg (1200m, 4%, max. 8%) with 86km to go. At this point there is no time for recovery as the hellingen come in very quick succession. Kortekeer (1000m, 6.4%, max. 17%) is next with 79km to go.

 

The first climbs will only have served as small leg breakers and the first real selection will come on the cobbled Taaienberg (650m, 9.5%m, max. 18%) which is one of the hardest climbs in the region and comes with 74km to go. Among the many hellingen, it is Tom Boonen's favourite and he rarely passes it without going straight to the front to power all the way up from bottom to top, stringing out the group and drawing clear a select group of favourites. In recent years, Sep Vanmarcke has often taken over from Boonen though. Importantly, the Taaienberg comes closer to the finish that it has done in the past.

 

After the Taaienberg, we will likely have a bit of a regrouping as there are another 8km until the riders will hit the Boigneberg (2180m, 5.8%, max. 15%). It’s followed immediately by the cobbled Eikenberg (1200m, 5.5%, max. 11%) which is also one of the hardest climbs in the region and will create a further selection and be an opportunity for some of the outsiders to attack. The cobbled Stationsberg (460m, 3.2%, max. 5.7%) but after it has been passed and the riders have tackled the Mariaborrestraat cobbles moments later, there’s an easier section.

 

The gradual elimination process has started and from now on, the number of contenders will only be whittled down with every passing climb. In fact, this is a very good place to launch attacks and the racing is usually very aggressive at this point until some kind of group has formed. Some of the favourites will be isolated at this point and this is a very good time to go up the road in an attempt to anticipate the accelerations from the major favourites before the major regrouping takes place.

 

A bigger group is likely to have gathered when the climbing resumes. The real finale starts with 46km to go when the riders hit the Kapelberg (900m, 4%, max. 7%) and from here the course will be the same as it was last year. This is not where it is going to happen but the climb is a small appetizer from the Paterberg-Oude Kwaremont combination that will decide the race and be the place for the favourites to make their moves. The two climbs are the final ones in De Ronde where they come in the reverse order and both are simply brutal.

 

First up is the short, very steep, cobbled Paterberg (700m, 12%, max. 20%) which is where the final selection in the Tour of Flanders has often been made and in 2014 it was here that the decisive group was formed in this race. It starts with 42km to go and from the top, only 3.5km remain until the riders reach the cobbled Kwaremont (2200m, 4.2%, max. 11%). This is an entirely different story as it is much less steep but a long, gradual uphill. This is where Cancellara launched his race-winning attack in 2013 and where the winning trio went clear in 2015.

 

At this point, the main selection will have happened and after the top of the Kwaremont, we can expect that only a handful of riders remain in contention. The final 37km mostly consist of a long flat run back to Harelbeke but the section offers a few opportunities to form late attacks to make a selection. The first one comes 30km from the finish on Karnemelkbeekstraat (1530m, 4.9%, 7.3%) while the cobbled Varentstraat comes when 24km remain. The final challenge is the Tiegemberg (1000m, 6.5%, 9%) with 19km to go and those three obstacles will all be difficult at the end of a very long and hard race.

 

The new finale that was introduced last, is almost completely flat and a bit more technical than it has been in the past. Having followed a big road, the riders turn left just before the 5km to go mark. The next turn comes with 3.8km to go and then there are another two turns with 2.8 and 1.5km to go. The final left-hand turn comes with just 600m to go. Most often a rider arrives solo at the finish or a small group decides the race in a sprint in the centre of Harelbeke but one thing is guaranteed: at the end of 206 brutal kilometres in the hardest Flemish terrain, only the strongest will be left.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The weather always a huge impact on the Belgian classics and it is often the combination of wind, rain and cold that decide how selective the race is going to be. This year the riders have had lots of bad weather with two big mountain stages getting cancelled and it seems that it won’t be much better in Belgium.

 

Friday is forecasted to be a day with lots of rain in the morning and early afternoon while the sun may come out towards the end of the race. At the same time, it will get a bit warmer, with the temperature reaching 10 degrees near the end of the race.

 

It won’t be too windy as there will only be a moderate wind from a southerly direction which will abate day and change direction during the. In the finale, it will come from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind for most of the day. Importantly, the change of direction means that it will be a headwind in the flat run-in to the finish in Harelbeke.

 

The favourites

Some of the riders may have tested themselves on the cobbles in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and Dwars door Vlaanderen but for riders like Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar and Fabian Cancellara, E3 Harelbeke marks their first battle on the pave. The WorldTour race is the first Belgian event that has gathered an all-inclusive list of contenders for the Tour of Flanders and this turns it into the big dress rehearsal for the biggest classic in the Flemish-speaking part of Belgium.

 

Despite its status as dress rehearsal, there will be no holding back for the favourites in this race. With more than a week to the big goal, the riders can allow themselves to dig very deep for this race which is both prestigious in its own right and a very important test of the condition. Furthermore, there are prestigious WorldTour points on offer and a disappointing performance in this race will raise serious questions for ambitious Flanders contenders. The racing will be just as fierce as it will be one week later and the main difference is the fact that this race is a bit shorter which opens the door for a few more riders.

 

Cobbled races can both be decided in bunch sprints and turn into a race for the hardmen. History proves that E3 always is a race for attrition that suits the real classics specialists. In recent years, the only edition which has ended in a bunch sprint, was held in 2012 when Tom Boonen emerged as the fastest in the final dash to the line. That race was held on a summerlike day which made it hard to make a difference but in general, not even very good weather conditions have been enough to prevent a selective race.

 

Last year the riders had relatively nice conditions for the race but it was still a small trio that decided the race. Behind that trio, however, it was a rather big group that gathered and if they had failed to cooperate, we would have had a relatively big group sprinting for the win. This proves that it is certainly possible for E3 Harelbeke to come down to a reduced sprint but it is definitely an exception.

 

Friday is forecasted to be rainy and this should make the race a lot tougher. It won’t be very windy but it will be a crosswind for most of the day which will only add to what will already be a very stressful day. The wet roads will add further tension to the bunch and we are likely to see another crash-marred race. History shows that we usually lose at least one cobbled contender for the rest of the classics season in this race and it could very well be the same in 2016.

 

While the wet conditions will make the race selective, the headwind in the final part will make it harder for a small group to stay away. This favours the sprinters. On the other hand, they still need domestiques to bring the break back and they won’t have many guys left at the end of a hard race. As the strongest guys have usually escaped, they usually just have to cooperate to make it to the finish.

 

Most of the climbs will probably be tackled at a pretty high pace and there will be a fierce battle for position in the run-in to most of them. However, the race favourites will probably make their moves on the three key ascents. The first accelerations will come on the Taaienberg but after that climb, a regrouping usually takes place. This opens the door for some of the lieutenants and the outsiders to try to escape before the peloton again gets organized but due to the fierce battle for position, it will be hard to make a difference. The big attacks will be made on the Paterberg and the Kwaremont and from there it will probably be a big pursuit between different groups back to the finish. The final three hellingen and the pave sectors may be used to make late attacks.

 

The race has been known as Tom Boonen’s race as the Belgian has dominated it in the past but in the past few years, Fabian Cancellara has been king of the race. In fact, he has won the race every year since 2010 when bad luck has not taken him out of contention – and on some occasions he has even had remarkable comebacks from huge setbacks. The Swiss has made this race his first big test and he has often demolished the opposition during his heydays.

 

There is no doubt that the Cancellara of 2010 no longer exists and he will no longer be able to do what he did back then. However, the 2016 season has proved that he is not done yet and he has had one of the best starts to his season ever. Most remarkably, he has been winning races since January which is very unusual for him and this is a true indication of the level of motivation that he has for his final season. He has made the sacrifices during the winter and is clearly stronger than he has been for several years.

 

This puts him in a great position to go for a fourth win in Harelbeke. After his excellent exhibition in Strade Bianche, he suffered a bit in Tirreno but showed that the form was not too bad by doing a fabulous work for Mollema in the hard stage 4. He took a dominant win in the time trial and he seemed to be the strongest rider on the Poggio in Milan-Sanremo. He was too marked to make a race-winning move but the lack of result is not a reflection of his form.

 

Cancellara always made it clear that the cobbled races were more important than Sanremo and those races suit him a lot better. In the past, he has often taken solo wins here and there is a big chance that it could be the same in 2016. Based on his performances until now, it will be very hard for anyone to follow when he drops the hammer on the Paterberg and most notably the Kwaremont which suits him excellently. The main challenge for him will be to stay away in the headwind but if anyone can do so, it is the Swiss machine.

 

Furthermore, Cancellara has options even if he has some company. He is very fast at the end of a hard race – he has been on the podium after bunch sprints in Sanremo and won the Tour of Flanders in a sprint from a small group. Among the big favourites, only Peter Sagan and Alexander Kristoff will be very hard to beat for him in a final dash to the line. He also has an excellent experience which has served him so well in these races. Finally, he can count on a strong team that includes Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns and this should make it much easier for Trek to control things than it has been in the past. We will put our money on Cancellara to come out on top.

 

Two years ago Peter Sagan took his second big win on the cobbles in this race. It is no big surprise that the victory came here as he has usually suffered a bit in the longest races. A 200km distance is more manageable for the world champion and he is almost always up there at the pointy end of the races in races with that kind of length.

 

Sagan has had a hard time since 2013. He never reached his top level in the classics in 2014 and 2015 but since last year’s Tour of California he has been back on track. He now looks like the impressive rider he was in 2013 when he was one of the very strongest on the cobbles and these races really suit him very well. He was already one of the best in Omloop and since then he has gradually improved his form. He was very good in Tirreno and he seemed to be at ease in the finale of Milan-Sanremo where he closed a few key gaps.

 

Even last year when he was not at his best, Sagan was up there with the best on the Kwaremont and we have no doubt that he will be so again. The main challenge for him will be to have riders cooperating with him. However, Cancellara will definitely do so and the same goes for Greg Van Avermaet who has gained lots of confidence by beating him on a few occasions. There won’t be the same kind of fear for Sagan that has marred him in the past and this could put him in a race-winning position. Among the favourites, only Kristoff is faster than him. He may have been beaten by Van Avermaet in recent uphill sprint but in a flat sprint, he is much stronger than the Belgian. He even has chances if it comes down to a sprint from a bigger group. If he can keep up with Cancellara on the Kwaremont, Sagan has a very big chance to win this race.

 

Greg Van Avermaet has suddenly turned into a winner and he took his first big victory on the cobbles at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Since then he has won Tirreno-Adriatico and sprinted to fifth in Milan-Sanremo. The only small disappointment came at Strade Bianche where he was unable to follow the race-winning move.

 

Van Avermaet is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton and he is supported by one of the strongest teams. This race suits him well but he is usually a bit stronger in the longer races. There have been a few chinks in his armour and we doubt that he is as strong as Sagan and Cancellara on the climbs. However, he is now much better at gauging his effort and he is now much better at making the right tactical choices in the finale. He has no chance in a bunch sprint but he has proved that he can win from a small group. It won’t be easy to beat Sagan in a flat sprint but by making the right tactical choices, it won’t be impossible.

 

Etixx-QuickStep always have a few cards up their sleeves but it seems that Zdenek Stybar is their best weapon. In general, we regard the Czech as one of the most talented riders for these races and it is only a matter of time before he takes that big victory. Last year he was close but made the mistake of looking a bit too much at Sagan in the finale.

 

Stybar has been strong all year. He was good in Algarve and was almost able to beat Cancellara in Strade Bianche. However, he showed signs of weakness in the final part of Tirreno-Adriatico and as he ran into a dog on the descent of Cipressa in Sanremo, we never got the chance to see what he could do there. This makes us a bit uncertain about his form but on paper he should be one of the very best on the key climbs in the finale. He is a fast in a sprint but it will be hard for him to beat Sagan, Cancellara and Van Avermaet. However, Etixx-QuickStep could have strength in numbers in the finale where Niki Terpstra could also be up there. With Tom Boonen probably waiting for a sprint a bit further back, they have a few tactical cards to play that may allow Stybar to make the right move in the finale.

 

In general, we regard Sep Vanmarcke as the biggest talent for the cobbled classics. The Belgian is extremely powerful on the hellingen and has often been the best in the opening weekend. He has never really got things right in the monuments where he has been marred by lots of bad luck. Last year he seemed to suffer from mechanicals in all the big races apart from Flanders and so his lack of results was not a reflection of his form.

 

This year he has had a different start to the season as he has skipped the opening weekend to be better prepared for the monuments. It remains to be seen how that works out but he hasn’t been outstanding until now. He showed himself with some strong moves in Paris-Nice but we were very disappointed with his performance in Sanremo where he was relatively far back on the climbs. On the other hand, his form is growing and he should be stronger in Harelbeke. If he gets into good condition in the right time, he may be the only rider capable of following Cancellara on the climbs and with his fast sprint, there is no reason that he can’t beat the Swiss in a head-to-head battle or win from a small group.

 

Alexander Kristoff has never had much success in Harelbeke. In the past, it was regarded as being a bit too hard for him but as he is the reigning Flanders champion, that argument is no longer valid. However, Kristoff is less explosive than his biggest rivals and he probably needs a longer race to be able to follow the best on the hellingen. He was climbing better than ever before in Sanremo but we don’t think that he will be able to go with the moves in the finale. His chance to win the race will be to get it back together for a sprint from a bigger group. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a very strong team at his disposal. Viacheslav Kuznetsov and Nils Politt have a huge potential for these races but there is a big chance that he will be isolated in the finale. In that case, he will have to rely on other teams and tactics for things to come back together. In case of a sprint, however, he is the overwhelming favourite as he is usually impossible to beat at the end of a hard race – at least as long as he gets the positioning right which failed in Sanremo.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is still knocking on the door for that big classics win and he has never really been a real contender on the cobbles in the biggest races. However, the Norwegian now seems to be stronger than ever. It all started at last year’s Tour of Britain and when he was one of the strongest at Worlds, it was evident that he was back on track. This year he has been up there in every race after his excellent start in Qatar and most recently he was one of the best on the Poggio in Sanremo.

 

On paper, Boasson Hagen has the skills to go with the best on the climbs but he has never managed to do so. He still needs to prove that he can be up there in these races but if he can join the strongest after the Kwaremont, he will have options. He doesn’t have to fear anyone in a sprint and even though he is usually not as fast as Sagan, he is probably the rider with the biggest chance to beat the Slovakian in a sprint for a small group.

 

Astana go into the race with Lars Boom as the leader. He has generally flown under the radar, especially because the start of his season has been far from impressive. However, he looked very strong in Milan-Sanremo and he has always had lots of potential for these races where he has been marred by bad luck. He is at ease on the cobbles and relatively fast in a sprint but like Terpstra, most of the favourites are faster than him. On the other hand, he will probably be a bit less marked and this could open the door for him to make the right move if he joins a small group on the finale.

 

Tiesj Benoot is destined to win the biggest classics. After finishing fifth in his Flanders debut, he was with the best in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad where he finished third and in Dwars Door Vlaanderen, he and Van Avermaet looked like the strongest riders on the climbs. In E3 the level will be higher but he has proved that he can match the best at the WorldTour level too. He knows how to position himself, climbs better than most of the favourites and has a reasonably fast sprint. He could have Jurgen Roelandts at his side in the finale which will provide Lotto Soudal with options.

 

Niki Terpstra is one of the strongest riders in these races but his condition is hard to gauge. He wasn’t as strong as usual in the opening weekend and after claiming a smaller win at Le Samyn and riding in breakaways in Paris-Nice, he didn’t leave a great impression in Dwars door Vlaanderen. He doesn’t seem to be as strong as he has been in past years. On the other hand, he claims to be feeling good and last year he was also riding poorly in Waregem before going on to finish second in Flanders.

 

At the same time, it is always hard for Terpstra to win these races as most of the favourites are faster than him in a sprint. His main asset is the fact that he is part of the strongest teams and with Stybar and maybe Boonen, Trentin and Vandenbergh at his side, Etixx-QuickStep could have tactical options in the finale. That allowed him to win Paris-Roubaix and that could happen again.

 

Jurgen Roelandts sprinted to a surprise third place in Milan-Sanremo and he seems to be riding better than he has done for a couple of years. He has always been solid in these races but he has lacked the last little bit to go with the best on the climbs. This year things could be different and with Benoot now at his side, Lotto Soudal will have more options. Furthermore, his sprint in Sanremo again underlined that he is very fast at the end of a hard race and that result will have given him to confidence to go up against everybody.

 

Daniel Oss always flies under the radar but he is one of the strongest in these races. The Italian has immense power and was one of the best on the cobbles in 2015 after an injury-marred 2014. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be at the same level in 2016 and his main goal will always be to support Greg Van Avermaet. However, he is strong enough to anticipate the favourites and be up there in the finale where he may take his chance as part of a tactical battle.

 

Tom Boonen will return to the cobbles after a one-year absence but unfortunately it seems that there will be no return to glory for the classics star. Boonen has shown nothing that makes us believe that he will return to his former level and it will be hard for him to win a race that is as tough as this. He was off the pace in the opening weekend and suffered in Sanremo. We doubt that he will be able to go with the best on the climbs but he will always be kept in reserve for a bunch sprint. In that case, it will be hard to beat Kristoff but Boonen remains very fast at the end of a hard race.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski doesn’t have a lot of experience on the cobbles but he has proved that he can do well when he has had his rare tastes of the rough surface. He was very strong as a youngster in the 2013 Tour of Flanders and last year he again proved his skills in Dwars Door Vlaanderen which he nearly won. That was his only cobbled race in 2015 but this year he will be doing both E3 and Flanders. He has had a slow start to the year but his attack in the finale in Sanremo proves that he is finding his legs. He is smaller than most of his fellow favourites but has the punch to be with the best on the climbs. He is fast in a sprint but will probably have to make one of his trademark moves to win the race.

 

Finally, Arnaud Demare deserves a mention. The Frenchman is a talented rider for the cobbles but bad luck has always marred him in the classics, preventing him from showing his full potential. His win in Sanremo proves that his form is very good. He won’t be with the very best on the climbs but he won’t be far behind either. If it comes down to a sprint from a bigger group, he will be Kristoff’s biggest rival. Usually, he has a hard time in the fight for position but things are easier at the end of a hard race and he obviously has the speed to win.

 

UPDATE: Boasson Hagen will skip the race

 

***** Fabian Cancellara

**** Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet

*** Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Alexander Kristoff, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Tiesj Benoot

** Niki Terpstra, Jurgen Roelandts, Daniel Oss, Tom Boonen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Arnaud Demare

* Matteo Trentin, Ian Stannard, Luke Rowe, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jasper Stuyven, Dries Devenyns, Jens Keukeleire, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, Salvatore Puccio